Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I
posted at 2/23/2012 10:36 PM EST
I left the luxury tax issues out of the equation and they should have been factored. And they are more than just the 40% factor now if I remember correctly. It's more complicated now with revenue sharing changes etc... if I remember correctly. Good addition Hex!
The more I look closely at the situation I think they are projecting Iglesias as imminent, by the all star break probably. Reaching a tipping point on this decision.
I think most teams don't consider Aviles as a starting SS. Even the Royals didn't look at him that way. They played him mainly at 2nd and 3rd. He's a tweener. Not good enough probably to start at 3rd for a top team and can't field enough to do the job well over time at SS. He's a tweener guys in all likelihood but probably acceptable as a 90 day placeholder. A slight step above Alex Cora.
When looking at Aviles fangraphs numbers his best fielding spot appears to be SS but he has been getting a lot more PT recently at 3rd and 2nd where he was terrible. They even threw him out in the OF some. Maybe they are thinking if they are going to play him their best option is at SS, ergo another reason Scutaro is gone. I think the reasons for no Scutaro are extensive but it was proobably an accumulation of a number of factors.
Maybe Aviles can give us good numbers as at least a PT SS. I just don't see the defense being a positive for him there long term but maybe the guy hits well in Fenway, is cheap and can approximately equate Scutaro defensively. And serve as a good RH bat / sub later when Iglesias emerges.
Nice post, boom.
I'd like to add that nobody thought Scutaro was a FT SS until he was about Aviles' age as well. Scoot had bounced around the IF as well. Maybe Scoot was a better fielder 4 years ago than Aviles is now, but my point is that Scoot wasn't ever going to get any better in the field as he nears 37. In all liklihood, he'd have gotten slower, and his health status is highly questionable at this point. If the choice was the spring of 2009 or 2010 Scoot vs Aviles now, I could see going with Scoot.
As for the reason the Royals traded Aviles:
1) They had last year's best range SS.
2) They have salary issues, and while $1.5M doesn't seem like a lot to us, they probably felt they could get better value for that money elsewhere.
3) They did get Navarro for him. I thought at the time, you really like Yamaico.
The fangraph numbers are not large enough sample sizes, and I hate to base my judgements on just the 62 innings I watched him play last year with Boston. I realize I could be wrong about him being better than Scoot, and I know I have taken some criticism for holding the position that Scoot was one of the worst ranged SSs in MLB the last 2 years. (I place Jeter in the same group.) Aviles has a better arm, so I am assuming, he can't be any worse than Scoot.