A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Agreed in those instances which have a clearly documented history against certain pitchers. I also agree with your stance on the L-R-L issue. What I loved about the Yankee line-up for years is that they usually had 3 or 4 switch-hitters in the line-up. Made it a little easier in that respect. Either way, I think this Boston line-up is extremely potent. I am not familiar with the new players they brought in whom will cover the bottom third of the line-up, but if they can all produce at an adequate or average level for their position, then there is no reason for the Sox not to average close to 5 runs per game.
    Posted by jesseyeric[/QUOTE]

    Yes, clear bonafide swithc hitters are a great thing to have, but one should not be fooled by some. Look at Lowrie. He was labelled a switch hitter, but had a lopsided split. Conversely, look at Jacoby: he bats left-handed, but over his career has hit both sides pretty well. Pedey has had ups and downs vs LHPs even thiough he hits from the right side. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Yes, clear bonafide swithc hitters are a great thing to have, but one should not be fooled by some. Look at Lowrie. He was labelled a switch hitter, but had a lopsided split. Conversely, look at Jacoby: he bats left-handed, but over his career has hit both sides pretty well. Pedey has had ups and downs vs LHPs even thiough he hits from the right side. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Nothing wrong with a pure switch hitter.  Where is the Mick when you need him.

    Last year I was almost of the opinion that some of the Yanke SHer's should just stick with one side of the plate.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Nothing wrong with a pure switch hitter.  Where is the Mick when you need him. Last year I was almost of the opinion that some of the Yanke SHer's should just stick with one side of the plate.
    Posted by jesseyeric[/QUOTE]

    I remember the Cards always used to have tons of switch hitters.
    6 of their top 9 PA players in 1987 were switch hitters.

    I think it was Ted Simmons who had a .900+ OPS vs both LHPs and RHPs one year in the late 70's... pretty awesome for a catcher in those days or any days!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    We had a silly clown here last year trying to downplay Jacoby's season by badmouthing his numbers vs LHPs. Trying to persuade people that this weakness should mean he should be benched, traded, or moved to the 9 slot so Crawford could bat 1st. (I know, how absurd is that, considering CC's splits. Hence the name "silly clown".)

    Although Jacoby is a lefty, check out his splits (OPS):
          RHPs  LHPs
    '07 .931   .802 (Small sample size)
    '08 .729   .728
    '09 .763   .785
    '10 .488   .471 (Injury; small sample size)
    '11 .965   .841

    Jacoby's career splits before 2011:
    vs RHPs .747
    vs LHPs  .752

    The guy improves on his splits vs LHPs by 89 points, and suddenly, it's an issue for softy (aka mr. hanky). 

    Pedey is another Sox player with a very small split differential. I'll take him over most switch hitters today:
    vs RHPs: .304/.364/.466/.830
    vs LHPs: .308/.397/.457/.854

    One interesting note about Pedey (a RH'd hitter) is that he had a two year stretch where he was significantly better vs RHPs than LHPs:

    2009: .839 to .765
    2010: .910 to .700

    Here's some interesting observations:
    Sox player's best batting slot by OPS 
    (top 4 for each player by most PAs):

    Ellsb:   8th 1.117 (67) / 9th  .890 (100) / 1st .790 (1921)
    Pedey: 4th  1.117 (133) / 2nd .853 (2420) / 3rd .741 (85) /1st .693
    AGon:   3rd   .909 (2220) / 5th .903 (1364) / 4th .889 (1364) 
    Youk:    6th  .983 (246) / 4th  .937 (1518) / 3rd .936 (388) /2nd .889
    Papi:    3rd  .982 (3246) / 5th .918 (1854) / 4th .838 (1539) / 6th .819
    Craw:   7th   .874  (150) / 2nd .806 (2705) /3rd .784 (863) /1st .734

    Notes: 
    Ellsbury's non-leadoff slots are tiny sample sizes.
    Pedey has done well batting 4th in a small sample, but poorly #3.
    AGon will hit about the same up 3rd, 4th or 5th.
    Youk is about even up 3rd or 4th, but has done well up 6th.
    Papi's high numbers in the 3 slot were from his prime years.
    CC is very close batting 2nd, 3rd, or 7th, but recently his best slots:
      2011: 7th, 8th, 9th
      2010: 3rd, 2nd



     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Boom, I always enjoy your reviews of minor league guys coming along.  Moon, Gammons says he expects your boy Ross to have a good year and he says Doubie looks lean and mean and expects good things from him too...which makes me hopeful as I have hoped he would "light up."  I think you've held "great expectations " for him too...I can't wait to see how Iggy plays this spring...
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I did like Douby last year and actually expected more from him than Wake. I was dissapointed by him being out of shape, but he is young. I might not be so forgiving this year, but I do expect a lot from him and think he should win the 5th slot, but I am biased, because I want Aceves in the pen.

    I try to be objective, but I do expect Ross, Doubront and Aviles to do well this year (exceeding expectations). 

    I'd guess Ells, Papi, Beckett and maybe Aceves will have slight declines from their fine 2011 seasons. 
    (I put that in there to dispell any "homerism" replies.)

    The wild cards are:
    Buchholtz (back injury)
    Bard (as starter)
    Crawford (lots of questions)
    Papi (vs LHPs)
    Salty (stamina)
    Youk (injury/decline?)
    5th starter
    6th starter

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": [QUOTE]I did like Douby last year and actually expected more from him than Wake. I was dissapointed by him being out of shape, but he is young. I might not be so forgiving this year, but I do expect a lot from him and think he should win the 5th slot, but I am biased, because I want Aceves in the pen. I try to be objective, but I do expect Ross, Doubront and Aviles to do well this year (exceeding expectations).  I'd guess Ells, Papi, Beckett and maybe Aceves will have slight declines from their fine 2011 seasons.  (I put that in there to dispell any "homerism" replies.) The wild cards are: Buchholtz (back injury) Bard (as starter) Crawford (lots of questions) Papi (vs LHPs) Salty (stamina) Youk (injury/decline?) 5th starter 6th starter Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Nice post, Moon...pretty much agree with all of it...My "sleeper" pick is Ryan Sweeney to be this year's "Aceves." I think he is made for Fenway and he will be a fan favorite by season's end.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": Nice post, Moon...pretty much agree with all of it...My "sleeper" pick is Ryan Sweeney to be this year's "Aceves." I think he is made for Fenway and he will be a fan favorite by season's end.
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]
    For what it's worth, I endorse Ryan Sweeney as well.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : For what it's worth, I endorse Ryan Sweeney as well. Posted by hill55[/QUOTE] Hey, good to hear, Hill...you always have the stats to back up your reasoning, so I'd say it's a good endorsement...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": Nice post, Moon...pretty much agree with all of it...My "sleeper" pick is Ryan Sweeney to be this year's "Aceves." I think he is made for Fenway and he will be a fan favorite by season's end.
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    Watch Sweeney pull back two homers from Kinsler in 2009. The second one was the catch of the year!

    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4814769&c_id=mlb
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Watch Sweeney pull back two homers from Kinsler in 2009. The second one was the catch of the year! http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4814769&c_id=mlb
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]
    Thanks, Tom. Both of those plays are examples of perfect outfield form. "Had it all the way." And he did.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I feel pretty happy with our OF fielding this year. (LF is still shaky, but hopefully it will improve.)
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/2/29/2830655/jason-varitek-advanced-catcher-defense

    Grist for your mill, Mr. Moon.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/2/29/2830655/jason-varitek-advanced-catcher-defense Grist for your mill, Mr. Moon.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Great article. 

    Open minds only.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/2/29/2830655/jason-varitek-advanced-catcher-defense Grist for your mill, Mr. Moon.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Great to see this.  The CERA thing has been fascinating me too and it's been frustrating not to have any analytical data. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Great to see this.  The CERA thing has been fascinating me too and it's been frustrating not to have any analytical data. 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    It's a tough nut to crack, but I am certain that game calling and handling pitchers is the most important aspect of a catcher's skillset.

    harness did a lot of leg work on CERA and I backed it up with OPS against numbers of each individual pitcher's numbers with VTek and our other catchers.

    Couple the numbers with all the anecdotal evidence, and it's hard to believe so many people don't think the catcher has anything to do with the staff performance or that the influence in minimal.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Let the games begin!

    Smile

    I can't wait any longer!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Guys, this is probably not news to most of you but have read several times the last couple of days that Bi-Valve is running a very active, busy, productive, focused on fundamentals, station-to-station camp.  Everyone is working hard, players come off the field covered in sweat, and observers see a big difference from last year where "let's not let anyone get hurt" was the theme to "everyone needs to be working full tilt so we can start the regular season running on all cylinders."  This is not meant to be a slam at Tito as last years "relaxed camp" may have been an organizational decision for all we know, but it does seem like that might have been the key to our extremely slow start.  So far I like the sound of all this and I'm very excited about how it might translate to the new year.  I think BV is more volatile than Tito, probably has a shorter shelf life, probaly won't make eight years--but I think this feisty guy is going to be great for a new start.  If teams do take on some characteristics of their managers, then this is a good thing.  I like that he has CC working on his bunting skills.  I know you don't pay a 140 million guy to bunt, but frankly I thought all last year, "Well, if this guy can't get a hit, why doesn't he bunt with that speed?"  If guys don't have an edge, maybe he will give them one.  Maybe if guys do have an edge (Beckett, Pedey, Aceves???) maybe he will give them more of an edge or understand them better for it, as I think he played with an edge. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Stressing the fundamentals is a good thing and a much needed new direction.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    To have anyone on this team who can bunt would be huge. It's long overdue.

    If Lavarnway can make the jump after a couple months and slot at # 6 maybe after Papi, imagine the base clogging if Crawford slots at #7?

    Maybe we should go with the platooned right fielders at 7 ( at least when Ross is in there ) , and slot Crawford at #8 with Iglesias at 9 being ready to bunt one of these guys over or work the AB a little for a Crawford SB. Giving Ellbury some RBI.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Got my mlb online contract in place and an ipad ready, all tricked out with max ram. I can't wait either Moon, Crit, et al! i'm hoping to catch more minor league games this year.

    Been watching video of Bogaerts and Swihart lately. I think we have some very special prospects on the verge of really breaking though next summer. It could be real exciting this year in A ball.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    To have anyone on this team who can bunt would be huge. It's long overdue.

    If Lavarnway can make the jump after a couple months and slot at # 6 maybe after Papi, imagine the base clogging if Crawford slots at #7?

    Maybe we should go with the platooned right fielders at 7 ( at least when Ross is in there ) , and slot Crawford at #8 with Iglesias at 9 being ready to bunt one of these guys over or work the AB a little for a Crawford SB. Giving Ellbury some RBI.

    Boom, I've been saying all winter that Lava should be "the man" this year. I even went so far as to say we should trade Salty while his stock is high: I'm that confident. I know Salty's not going anywhere, but he really doesn't match up well with Lava. Lava should have a great defensive catcher as his back-up and with a mentor type personality.

    I'd love to see Lava and Iggy, but if Aviles gets the nod, how's this vs LHPs:

    1 Ells
    2 Ped
    3 Gon
    4 Youk
    5 Papi
    6 Lava
    7 Ross
    8 Aviles
    9 CC

    vs RHPs:
    6 CC
    7 Lava/Shopp  
    8 Sween/Ross
    9 Aviles
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

     I can't wait either Moon, Crit, et al! i'm hoping to catch more minor league games this year. Been watching video of Bogaerts and Swihart lately. I think we have some very special prospects on the verge of really breaking though next summer. It could be real exciting this year in A ball.

    Boom, I really look forward to your prospect updates. I'm excited as well. All these top recent p[icks, mostly HS kids, will soon start to show show their promise.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Just throwing this out as I read it with morning San Jose Merc. News: (3) of Giants' top (10)  minor leaguers are catchers with Posey now blocking the top.  I know we have several good candidates coming now, just a fyi thing...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Just throwing this out as I read it with morning San Jose Merc. News: (3) of Giants' top (10)  minor leaguers are catchers with Posey now blocking the top.  I know we have several good candidates coming now, just a fyi thing...

    You never know, but I think Lava is going to get every chance before we go looking elsewhere.
     

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