A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Salty would be the back-up, and we have Swihart, a very good looking prospect.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Swihart should scream up the charts. The guy can clearly hit. And he's a solid all around athlete who should be above average defensively either as a catcher or at 3rd. The guy might hit so well that they move him off catcher. Imagine that!

    I wouldn't be surprised if we see Tek again at some point. It could happen. Great story if it does.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    With Crawford having a setback today with his wrists, it's not boding well for the future at all. Wrist injuries can be major. We should expect a very slow start from Crawford again. Maybe for 2-3 months even. Just saying!

    We should cut this guy some slack. The injury probably affected him a lot last year. More than he is given credit for. He was a stud for years and then BAM he stinks. The injury probably had a role in that. We need to potentially even bench him for much of the first 2 months and let him heal.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]With Crawford having a setback today with his wrists, it's not boding well for the future at all. Wrist injuries can be major. We should expect a very slow start from Crawford again. Maybe for 2-3 months even. Just saying! We should cut this guy some slack. The injury probably affected him a lot last year. More than he is given credit for. He was a stud for years and then BAM he stinks. The injury probably had a role in that. We need to potentially even bench him for much of the first 2 months and let him heal.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    It's hard to fault a guy who works so hard as CC. Perhaps he pushed it too fast.

    I don't think CC was ever really a "stud".
    He's played about 9 full seasons worth of PAs.
    His career high OBP was a respectable. 364, but even that is not "stud" territory to me. 
    He's only been over .349 3 times.
    His top slug % was only .495.
    His next highest is .482 and then .469.
    Leading the majors in SBs 4 times is very nice, and he did have 60 in 2009.
    His splits vs LHPs is what bothers me most and keeps me from thinking he's stud material.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]To have anyone on this team who can bunt would be huge. It's long overdue.If Lavarnway can make the jump after a couple months and slot at # 6 maybe after Papi, imagine the base clogging if Crawford slots at #7? Maybe we should go with the platooned right fielders at 7 ( at least when Ross is in there ) , and slot Crawford at #8 with Iglesias at 9 being ready to bunt one of these guys over or work the AB a little for a Crawford SB. Giving Ellbury some RBI.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Or actually holding runners on first and not conceding 2nd.  It wouldn't be long enough if I never hear the term defensive indifference again.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'm not a big fan of bunting a lot, but you have to do it enough to keep the opposing team guessing and their IF playing in.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Guys, with Giants catcher Buster Posey being injured last year there was a lot of talk then and still about "how valuable a hitter" he is to the offense and maybe he should play more first and maybe even be moved.  I chuckle a bit because before I came to this site several years ago, I might have agreed but because of the insight of you guys, I now understand that moving Posey to another position probably lessens his value.  Thanks all for the many lessons about the inside of baseball. 
     
    And, it sounds like Doubie looked great today in his initial outing, even though vs. college players.  I'm pretty puffed up right now.  And Moon he talked about a new delivery that had him landing differently, on his toes, and thus bringing his pitches lower in the strike zone.  Who knows where this came from, but as I've been hoping, new coaches may lead to new approaches and improvement in some players who needed someone to unlock their potential...
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Doubie was my choice to win the 5th slot.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Doubront would be a huge help if he can hold down the #5 slot. Even giving us 500 baseball would be huge.

    I'm sorry Moon as I don't look to be different but Crawford was a stud before last year. Those SB at that percentage were great and his XBH were excellent and overall he was well above average defensively ( just not the gold glover he was considered to be ). Not worth $140 mil but clearly a stud nontheless.

    2 more hits from Lavarnway. Hopefully he keeps hitting when we stop playing T-ball!

    Most of baseball thought it made sense to move Harper from the catching position, as he could play in the field also ( as could Posey ). Having that bat in the lineup more often is big. It's a serious consideration IMO regarding guys like Posey and Mauer. Catchers get hurt, can't perform as well offensively at some point after all the injuries. Mauer probably plays in the field more going forward or at DH ( he can still catch but he probably gets conserved more going forward to keep him from getting injured as much ).  

    I really like the Victor Martinez mold of part time catcher, part time 1st base and DH. It's possibly the ideal if the catcher has a big bat. It's better than a dedicated DH only if the guy can hit bigtime.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I can't believe how many "experts" still don't even regard Lavarnway as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Hello! What does this guy have to do to get national attention from the collective baseball braintrust? The guy can produce runs big time. He gets on base. He drives runs in. He consistently has averaged an wRC+ above 140 in his minor league career ( producing 40% more runs than the average player ).

    He could really help this lineup at #6 or 7.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'm sorry Moon as I don't look to be different but Crawford was a stud before last year. Those SB at that percentage were great and his XBH were excellent and overall he was well above average defensively ( just not the gold glover he was considered to be ). Not worth $140 mil but clearly a stud nontheless.

    I just can't see calling anyone a stud who has never...
    Hit 20+ HRs
    Hit 91+ RBIs
    Had a .365+ OBP
    Had a .496+ SLG %
    Had a .852+ OPS
    Been in the top 10 for Extra Base Hits in a season (not really even close any year)

    He's led the league in 3Bs 4 times and SBs 4 times. 
    His 2010 season saw him crack sone top 10's (9th in BA & total bases), but that's about it.

    Maybe we have a different idea of what a "stud is".

    Even if we cherrypick his best window (2004-2010), here's how his total offense ranks:
    Fangraph's 
    Batting:            #45
    Base Running: #6

    Out of the top 180 players by PAs (2500+) from 2004-2010, Crawford placed:
    91st in OBP  (Just behind BJ Upton, Jason Bartlett, and VTek)
    74th in Slg% (Just ahead of Cameron and behind Markakis & G Jenkins)
    78th in OPS (Behind Atkins, Overbay and Luis Gonzalez)
    53rd in wRC+


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I can't believe how many "experts" still don't even regard Lavarnway as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Hello! What does this guy have to do to get national attention from the collective baseball braintrust? The guy can produce runs big time. He gets on base. He drives runs in. He consistently has averaged an wRC+ above 140 in his minor league career ( producing 40% more runs than the average player ). He could really help this lineup at #6 or 7.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I had really hoped we had Lava and Iggy as FT starters this year. We could have saved about $3M a year on Shoppach and Punto, or traded Salty and kept Shoppach (or VTek) for even more savings.

    If he tears up ST, things could get interesting.

    vs LHPs, I'd love to see him up 6th behind Papi.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    At the time of his FA, the prior 8 years of Crawford's career he amassed a fangraphs "value" of $139.5 mil. Isn't that interesting for a guy who then signed an 8 year deal for $140 mil wasn't it? I'm just going from memory here. Maybe Theo thinks Fangraphs was on target!

    We can agree to disagree Moon. I'm easy!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It will be interesting to see how this comp plays out.  A great majority of attention has gone one way, but if Lavarnway is the only one to catch, it is hard to see how he would be less valuable.


    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20220303lavarnway_catching_on_sox_prospect_in_better_position/But several talent evaluators insist Lavarnway may be just as good a hitter. And although he never has been regarded as highly for his defense, many consider his catching skills to be superior to Montero’s.

    “I think it’s a pretty good comparison,” one National League scout said. “Montero, I know when we talked about him, we thought you continue to pursue catching the same way Toronto once did with (Carlos) Delgado, and at a certain point, maybe he’s Miguel Cabrera at first base. I think Lavarnway has a better chance of staying behind the plate.”

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    At the time of his FA, the prior 8 years of Crawford's career he amassed a fangraphs "value" of $139.5 mil. Isn't that interesting for a guy who then signed an 8 year deal for $140 mil wasn't it? I'm just going from memory here. Maybe Theo thinks Fangraphs was on target!

    We can agree to disagree Moon. I'm easy!

    The main reason CC's WAR has been so high is his defensive boost:
    2004-2010 (His best 7 seasons):
    Batting:  122.2  (45th out of 180 top MLB players in those 7 yrs)
    Runnings: 21.6 (6th out of 180)
    Fielding:   96.2 (1st out of 180 top players)

    I think those defensive rating were higher than he deserved, and I think fangraph's over-values the defense of LF'ers in general.

    I just don't think CC was even close to $133M value for those 7 years ($19M/yr).

    My main point is that he is not and never has been an offensive stud, even if you count baserunning in a significant manner. I hope we can begin to see some of that defensive value soon.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Au Contraire Moon a mi!

    I should be more careful I guess. I think I just said I love you in French Moon. Hopefully I said friend instead!

    Gotta share this photo of the new Sox spring training facility. Awesome huh. The wife and I are thinking of maybe spending a week there someday. She keeps talking about getting a Winnebago! It's the last thing I would have guessed when I married her. Anyway:



      
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Notice the 40 ft. wall and the park dimensions are supposed to be very similar. They even have an old scoreboard left over from an earlier Fenway iteration. I could dig this for sure.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I was in Florida for the opening day in TB years ago, when the closer by committee blew the first game. 

    I'd love to see a game at the new facilities. Maybe I can bribe the wife and kid by bringing them to Disney as part of the trip.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I


    I guess I'm really blind or stupid because I just can't see where Lavarnway is that an inadequate catcher as everyone seems to think.  

    He's got a rocket arm, I've seen him block pitches in the dirt, he's framing better etc., etc.  Granted, he hasn't had the experience calling a game, but can he be any worse that what we have?  Especially now since Varitek is no longer with us.

    Sending him down to AAA, IMHO would be a travesty.  He certainly doesn't seem to need additional at-bats for 'seasoning'.  Besides, if Tuck is as good as people say he is, he could certainly learn to refine his catching  skills as he goes along.  Would his current skills be that detrimental to the team?

    Having gaduated from Yale, I'm sure he doesn't lack the capacity to speed along his
    supposed learning process.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Heh Amp!

    Certainly he can be at least a back up this year at some point huh. Maybe they do want to retain control of him for that extra year by delaying his arrival a couple months. Get his bat cranking strong in AAA with regular PT ( including some DH time ). Save him a little from the year long grind at catcher, which will potentially affect him a  lot with that big body. He looks a lot leaner to me this year. I'm expecting a good year from him. 

    I want that guy in the lineup also but that extra year of control could be huge. Other teams do it. We need to look at it as a business decision. It helps the team a lot in the long run. Just my take. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Heh Amp! Certainly he can be at least a back up this year at some point huh. Maybe they do want to retain control of him for that extra year by delaying his arrival a couple months. Get his bat cranking strong in AAA with regular PT ( including some DH time ). Save him a little from the year long grind at catcher, which will potentially affect him a  lot with that big body. He looks a lot leaner to me this year. I'm expecting a good year from him.  I want that guy in the lineup also but that extra year of control could be huge. Other teams do it. We need to look at it as a business decision. It helps the team a lot in the long run. Just my take. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Financial control...good point.  I never thought of it.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Boom makes a lot of sense in wanting Lava to have a year on the back end of his team control service time rather than the front, but I think Lava is ready now. We need a big RH'd bat... NOW!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Who knows, maybe we will see him NOW! The Atlanta Braves did it with Heyward. The Sox did it with Pedroia! It happens sometimes!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Who knows, maybe we will see him NOW! The Atlanta Braves did it with Heyward. The Sox did it with Pedroia! It happens sometimes!
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I think Sox management is behind Salty right now. I wasn't impressed by his stamina, defensive skills, and handling of the staff. He's still young enough to turn it around, and he is about the age VTek was when he became a FT starter, so I guess they have their reasons.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I really don't see any reason why the Sox should have much confidence in Salty. Maybe they don't think he will be horrible! Maybe they think he is still relatively young and might at least improve some. It will be interesting to see how this shakes down in the Bobby V era.
     

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