A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, I think you and I are the only ones interested in your "co-pitchers" idea but who would your two candidates be this year?  By the way,  it seems Bowden has been doing well in camp to this point, so I'm hoping this is his breakout year.  Anyone heard how Bard is doing developing his change-up?  Chad Finn says Iggy should go down and come up later.  He also predicts Youk will achieve his average
    production offensively but miss about twenty games.  Please let there be good health...
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Moon, I think you and I are the only ones interested in your "co-pitchers" idea but who would your two candidates be this year?  By the way,  it seems Bowden has been doing well in camp to this point, so I'm hoping this is his breakout year.  Anyone heard how Bard is doing developing his change-up?  Chad Finn says Iggy should go down and come up later.  He also predicts Youk will achieve his average production offensively but miss about twenty games.  Please let there be good health...
    Posted by Critter23

    That and a dollar will get you a lotto ticket. How can one "predict" amount of games lost due to injury. Blind guess at best.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Moon, I think you and I are the only ones interested in your "co-pitchers" idea but who would your two candidates be this year?  By the way,  it seems Bowden has been doing well in camp to this point, so I'm hoping this is his breakout year.  Anyone heard how Bard is doing developing his change-up?  Chad Finn says Iggy should go down and come up later.  He also predicts Youk will achieve his average production offensively but miss about twenty games.  Please let there be good health...
    Posted by Critter23

    I'm not sure if this is "the year", but with Bard not about to get 200 IP, I suppose he could be a candidate to "co-start" with Doubront or Aceves or maybe Tazawa or one of the projects.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Iglesias seems to get a lot of injuries. He's brittle. He tries real hard and that's admirable but he has a smidgen of Kalish factor...i.e; going all out at all times and increasing his risk of injury. It's tough to stay on the field all year and make the highlight reels. To some degree, we may want fewer highlight reels and more PT.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It's hard to change that kind of player's mentality, and I am not sure that I'd want to. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I



    I know it's early.

    I know it's only spring training.

    Yet, I get a distinct feeling that the whole attitude in the
    Red Sox camp is different than it used to be.  I think the
    'comfort' zone has certainly been lowered.

    Players have been 'encouraged' to work their butts off and
    it shows.

    Bi-Valve says he doesn't like to lose...spring training, or
    whenever.  Kept within reason, I think this is great.

    I've seen bunt attempts, Iggy in a hit-run scenario, even a
    botched squeeze play.

    Win or lose you guys, I think we're in for an exciting season.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Amp, I'm excited too after watching about four innings of the game today, RS beat NY 1-0.  Pitchers were all keeping the ball down in the strike zone I thought.  It sounds like Bowden once again did well and I just read an article by Abraham who said, "It's clear that he feels BV and McClure are giving him more support and encouragement than he's gotten in the past."  Not an exact quote but this supports what I've been hoping for months, that new coaches might take a second look a guys who hadn't done much before and find a key to unlocking potential.  The only negative I have of today's game was when we had a guy on 2nd late in the game with no outs and the next two hitters (youngsters, not regulars) didn't seem to try to hit to the right side to move the runner along.  Oh well, it's ST and we won AND we beat the Yanks.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The attitude has to help, and working more on the fundamentals will too.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Bowden is a control pitcher. Sometimes that sort of guy can put it together for an entire year or more. When they lose their pinpoint control they are considered bums but when they are on they can be outstanding for months at a time. Getting Bowden a lot of work would be good for him and there is no reason in my view why he can't contribute in the back of the bullpen. He's also a nice trade piece, which I suspect might happen before too long. It depends on how our bullpen situation looks at the end of ST.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, some fan wrote to Cafardo asking if the RS would consider "pairing up" Aceves and Bard, co-starters, alternately pitching 5 and 4 innings every other game, which would keep their arms fresher for the end of the year.  Cafardo said the RS would never consider that, they are pitchers in their own rights and deserve their own starts.  I think there are still many customs and traditions in baseball which if changed by someone smart enough to see beyond them (not me) would significantly alter and maybe improve the game.  I think in 1900 all the pitchers were "starters" and when they pitched, they tried to go nine.  Padilla interested me last night; he seemed very efficient, pitched well, and of course I liked the eephus pitch.  I don't know if he's still a head case or not.  He's probably volatile.  But from what I saw, it looked like he would have no trouble being a fifth starter.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    PS.  Do teams use psychologists or is that just off season stuff?  It just struck me that if teams did have shrinks they might be able to salvage certain investments worth millions that sometimes end up in the dumpster.  Drinking, drugs, emotional issues, domestic issues, anger issues, ego, etc.  We all have these, they're out there, why wouldn't ball players have them, and in some cases not much of an educational background where one might acquire coping skills.  I would expect teams don't have these guys around to deal with the "head."  I bet there are at least 3 or 4 on every team that could use them.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think a better plan might be to rotate the last 2 slots in the rotation between 3 starters (Bard, Aceves & Doubront). They could each get an inning or two in relief in between starts.

    It might look like this:

    1) Beck
    2) Lest
    3) Bard 
    4) Buch
    5) Acev

    6) Beck
    7) Lest
    8) Doub 
    9) Buch
    10) Bard

    11) Beck
    12) Lest
    13) Acev
    14) Buch
    15) Doub

    The 3 starters basically start every 7-8 games not every 5 games. The top 3 (Beck, Lest & Buch) stay on the 5 game schedule.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, I would like to see your idea in action.  I'm always for trying something new to see how it might go, and ST would be a great place but...I doubt it would ever happen.  Bard not effective today.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Moon, I would like to see your idea in action.  I'm always for trying something new to see how it might go, and ST would be a great place but...I doubt it would ever happen.  Bard not effective today.
    Posted by Critter23

    I still think it would have been easier and way better had Ben gone out and traded for Floyd. Keep Bard and Aceves in the pen, and one could have argued that our pen is better than 2011's. (Bailey + Melancon > Papelbon, plus full seasons from Tazawa, Morales and others.)

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    AL Starters since 2008:
    WAR:
    1) Verlander  25.1
    2) Felix H       22.3
    3) CC Sab       21.8
    4) Lester        20.9
    5) Greinke      19.4
    6) Weaver      18.7
    7) C. Lee         18.6
    8) Beckett      16.2
    9) J Danks      15.6
    10) Buehrle   15.2
    11) Floyd       15.1
    12) Halladay 14.7
    13) Shields    14.7
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    AL Starters since 2008: WAR: 1) Verlander  25.1 2) Felix H       22.3 3) CC Sab       21.8 4) Lester        20.9 5) Greinke      19.4 6) Weaver      18.7 7) C. Lee         18.6 8) Beckett      16.2 9) J Danks      15.6 10) Buehrle   15.2 11) Floyd       15.1 12) Halladay 14.7 13) Shields    14.7
    Posted by moonslav59


    Moon - what's your take on Andy re-upping. I have two scenario's.

    1) Yanks are not comfortable with Pineda (Bad for NY)
    2) Andy was looking and feeling so good down in Tampa as an instructor and went to the Yanks & they agreed with his stuff. Who is a better #5 than a healthy Andy at 2.5 mil? (Good for NY)
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : That and a dollar will get you a lotto ticket. How can one "predict" amount of games lost due to injury. Blind guess at best.
    Posted by TBINFL


    Babe; a suggestion. The young ladies in your new avatar look very afraid, that pensive, "I so need to get out of here, now!" look. You should consider going back to the Diseased Parrot on the shoulder avatar asap....just sayin. Besides, the Parrot avatar better represents your personality as I perceive it.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I just noticed that P Abraham's opening day roster prediction doesn't have Tazawa which prompted me to look to see if he has options (he does)  Sadly, it looks like he'll start the year in AAA while Miller proves he still doesn't have it.  On the upside, I don't think Miller will last long given the depth of options.

    I was just noticing how cost effective our bullpen was, you know once you remove Jenks.  These are some really pretty stats (and, yeah, note the low career IP):

    IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA
    Bailey 174 49 174 2.07 0.95 .188
    Melancon 112 44 98 3.21 1.26 .232
    Bard 197 76 213 2.88 1.06 .190
    Aceves 240 72 167 2.93 1.08 .213

    Hopefully Douby (or Padilla god help us) will ensure either Bard or Ace are in the pen, in which case that sure looks like a nice top 3.  If we get the 2011 version of Morales and/or Bowden continues to show the progress we've seen of late, it looks pretty damn solid to me.  Plus you've got some potential in Taz ... maybe even Carlson if he's put his injuries behind him and can resemble anything close to the 2008 version.  Obviously, Bailey isn't Paps and there's the injury concern, but seems to me the 2012 pen should have a depth we were missing last year.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Moon - what's your take on Andy re-upping. I have two scenario's. 1) Yanks are not comfortable with Pineda (Bad for NY) 2) Andy was looking and feeling so good down in Tampa as an instructor and went to the Yanks & they agreed with his stuff. Who is a better #5 than a healthy Andy at 2.5 mil? (Good for NY)
    Posted by jesseyeric

    I'd rather have Pettitte than Andrew Miller, Cook, and padilla combined.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    I just noticed that P Abraham's opening day roster prediction doesn't have Tazawa which prompted me to look to see if he has options (he does)  Sadly, it looks like he'll start the year in AAA while Miller proves he still doesn't have it.  On the upside, I don't think Miller will last long given the depth of options. I was just noticing how cost effective our bullpen was, you know once you remove Jenks.  These are some really pretty stats (and, yeah, note the low career IP): IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA Bailey 174 49 174 2.07 0.95 .188 Melancon 112 44 98 3.21 1.26 .232 Bard 197 76 213 2.88 1.06 .190 Aceves 240 72 167 2.93 1.08 .213 Hopefully Douby (or Padilla god help us) will ensure either Bard or Ace are in the pen, in which case that sure looks like a nice top 3.  If we get the 2011 version of Morales and/or Bowden continues to show the progress we've seen of late, it looks pretty damn solid to me.  Plus you've got some potential in Taz ... maybe even Carlson if he's put his injuries behind him and can resemble anything close to the 2008 version.  Obviously, Bailey isn't Paps and there's the injury concern, but seems to me the 2012 pen should have a depth we were missing last year.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111

    That's why keeping Bard and Aceves in the pen by trading for a guy like Floyd made so much sense to me. Add a full season of Morales and that's a nice pen:

    Bailey
    Bard
    Melancon
    Aceves
    Morales
    Albers
    Tazawa/Miller/Bowden/etc...

    (Assuming Floyd and Doubront as the 4/5 starters)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Don't get me wrong, I would take Floyd in a heartbeat but ...
    1 - I think between Bard and Aceves one of them will be about as good as Floyd.  If the difference in IP is concerning, I think the prospect of half a season of DiceK makes that less of an issue.
    2 - While that bullpen would be outrageously good, having it THAT stacked with talent probably means you aren't getting good value from someone.  Basically, we are comparing BP A & B where A=(3 top notch guys + 2-3 solid pitchers + 1-2 marginal cannon fodder) and B=(4 top notch + 2 solid + 1 marginal).  I don't think the difference in wins between the two is worth what Floyd will cost in $$$ and prospects.  
    3 - They can still trade for someone during the season and I suspect can get a better value later.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Don't get me wrong, I would take Floyd in a heartbeat but ...
    1 - I think between Bard and Aceves one of them will be about as good as Floyd.  If the difference in IP is concerning, I think the prospect of half a season of DiceK makes that less of an issue.

    We know Floyd can start 28+ games with quality. We don't know that about Bard or Aceves. We do know that Bard and Aceves are excellent relievers. Plus, having Floyd does not preclude having Bard or Aceves start unbtil Dice-K is ready.

    2 - While that bullpen would be outrageously good, having it THAT stacked with talent probably means you aren't getting good value from someone.  

    I totally disagree. There is plenty of innings to go around for the top 4 releivers: Bailey, Bard, Aceves and Melancon. Morales would get all the innings he needs and the rest would be mop up or long relief innings. We need a 7, 8 and 9th inning pitcher, and we can't use the same guys back-to-back to often. Plus, Bailey's health is a question.

    There's plenty of ways to get this:
    Bailey: 60
    Bard:   60
    Melancon: 70
    A Aceves: 100+
    Morales:  40+

    Basically, we are comparing BP A & B where A=(3 top notch guys + 2-3 solid pitchers + 1-2 marginal cannon fodder) and B=(4 top notch + 2 solid + 1 marginal).  I don't think the difference in wins between the two is worth what Floyd will cost in $$$ and prospects.  

    Floyd improves the starting roation by a large amount and significantly solidifies the pen. He greatly improves two areas with one move. I'd give Middlebrooks, because I think Cechini and Bogaerts can take over for Youk in 2014. I'd give them Anderson because he is blocked, and I'd give them Exposito if they want him and/or Bowden because he is out of options.

    3 - They can still trade for someone during the season and I suspect can get a better value later.

    Actually, pitchers cost way too much at the deadline and we'd only get 2 months out of whoever we get. We need a starter now!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, last year during our dead end summer I was for moving one of the guys from the pen into the rotation, preferably Aceves.  I know you didn't like it then and still don't.  I've changed 180 degrees.  I'm hoping Doubie and someone else will emerge so we can put both guys back in the pen.  I actually think Aceves would be more successful than Bard.  I'm really aftraid Bard doesn't have a strong third pitch. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I wouldn't mess with Bard and Aceves. They were great in the pen, and it just seemed simpler to go out and get a starter than mess with something that worked great.

    Bard was one of the best set-up men in MLB.
    Aceves was one of the best long/mid men in MLB.

    Now what?
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Bard did succumb to an issue which was largely projectable for him. When he has a bad inning it can get real ugly, real fast. And as a starter, they don't want that inning to be in the 2nd or 3rd inning when they may leave him in there longer than if he were a reliever.

     
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