A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Douby seems to be emerging this spring to be the guy I was hoping for. Maybe projecting him as our #2 pitching prospect ( over Ranaudo and Britton ) wasn't so crazy after all!

    I have hopes for him and have been following him ever since he had a sub 2.00 ERA as a 17 year old in Venezuela. He's not a #1 but he has a chance to be a real solid starter in the majors.

    I really liked Doubront last winter, and maybe I read too much into the whole "came to camp out of shape" thing, but I kinda soured on him a bit this winter. 

    I have said I think he's the 5th starter, but I don't want to get my hopes up too high.

    Early word is that Swihart has excellent aptitude defensively at catcher. He picked off a runner at 2nd the other day and has shown some defensive potential! He is very athletic and he sure looks like hitting is not going to be a problem. A real blue chip prospect, something we haven't had that many off historically as those guys usually don't last past the 20th pick in the first round. 

    It certainly looks like Theo found a gem here!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Boom, we have all heard much talk about Lava, Iggy, Doubront and some about Tazawa. Is there anyone else under the radar that may make an impact on the big club this year?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    You underate yourself moon when it comes to the prospects. The only ones left who have much potential at all to help ( IMO ) are:

    5) Middlebrooks
    6) Kalish
    7) Alex Wilson
    8) Brentz
    9) Ranaudo

    Brentz and Ranaudo might break out this year and plow past 2 levels to possibly help us in September. Not likely but certainly possible. Wilson could help us maybe quicker than any of these guys, but not likely by much. Kalish if he can really recover from his injuries well and get enough PT to prove he is in the groove. Middlebrooks certainly could emerge and help cover an injury. Anyone I'm forgetting?

    I'm starting to have real faith in Brentz as a prospect. Anyone hitting 30 dingers in the minors whose under 25 years old is a prospect in my book ( just about )!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If Cook's opt out is 5/1 it looks to me like Doubront is our #5. And Carfalo's article today just build's momentum towards us keeping Lavarnway and Iglesias. Heh, it could actually happen and he does have a point especially with Lavarnway IMO. Is there any major difference defensively between Salty and Lavarnway? And don't we expect better offense from Lavarnway?

    They     could    go    all     the     way!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I don't consider Linares and Nava as prospects any more but both could be factors. MacDonald sure is hitting this spring. Let's hope that keeps up!
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I kind of thought Alex Wilson might make a run at the 5 slot this spring, and i guess he could make it at some point, but I fear he may just be the nest Weiland.

    I'm not too high on Middlebrooks, but can't put my finger on why.

    I like Kailsh, but think he has been over-hyped by some.

    I don't see Brentz or Ranaudo improving enough to get anything more than a September call-up.

    My sleeper would probably be Alex Hassan, and I suppose if Papi or AGon gets hurt, we might see Lars get a shot to shine.

    It's nice to finally have a larger list of potential helpful kids for once:
    1) Iggy
    2) Lava
    3) Doubront
    4) Tazawa
    5) Kalish
    6) Wilson

    Anderson
    Middlebrooks
    Ranaudo
    Brentz
    Lin
    Linares and Nava

    Edit: we also have some younger experienced players like Morales (just turned 26), Bard (27), Buch (27), Bowden (25), and Miller (27). Other under 30's: Ellsbury, Lester, Aceves, and Albers. 



     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I forgot about Hassan. He is good deep depth and actually a sleeper for us IMO. He keeps improving. Good plate discipline. Great arm for Fenway's RF.

    And Anderson does look improved. We have to remember though that spring training stats are largely insignificant. It is great to see Lavarnway keep putting up great numbers though. The guy is a rock as a hitter. Every level, every year, every situation he has put up great overall numbers. Excellent power numbers right from the start and they are consistent. Scouts still don't think this guy is for real overall but he is still around 24 or so if I remember correctly. Even in his Spring training numbers he has been underated as he was 3 for 3 in the 1st college game if I remember correctly and that didn't count towards the numbers. He has been a monster.

    And he isn't even considered in the top 100 prospects in the game and Swihart is, who has 6 professional AB before this year. I'm hoping that Lavarnway is for real, that he can adjust well in the majors and be acceptable defensively while becoming a solid middle of the order bat. At catcher that is a potential game change for a lot of teams. If we are going to win pennants going forward, Lavarnway's potential emergence is one of the keys. Now if we can get a couple young starters also we are in this thing.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Bard looked a little better didn't he today. Gave up 5 runs but pitched longer and seemed to have a little better control. Didn't get to see the whole game.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    ...And he isn't even considered in the top 100 prospects in the game and Swihart is, who has 6 professional AB before this year....

    It's all about upside potential. That's why so many of these top prospects never pan out.

    It does seem strange that a kid like Lava who has proven he can hit every chance he gets means so little to the "experts".
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It's all subjective in many ways. Lots of scouts think he has a hole in his swing which can be exploited at the mlb level. They may be right but even if the guy hits .250 with 20 HR he is a great find at catcher, even if his defense is not that great. We are satisfied with Salty who has worse numbers than that and has been around for a while now, and is not that good defensively either. As a catcher, I think Lavarnway has a lot more upside than most scouts project.

    An wRC+ of 171 in AAA in 2011 was tremendous. He seems to get better at every level and that just doesn't happen normally. It's time he got respect as a top flight prospect.  

    I've said it before. Look at the runs Lavarnway produces at every level. The guy had over 100 RBI one year in the minors. How often does that happen? He gets on base also. He's a legit middle of the order prospect at catcher and he isn't in the top 100 still.

    I think the guy has a strong chance to be ROY. I'm thinking at this point maybe they should just let him play this year. I wanted to hold him back for the extra year but he keeps putting up tremendous numbers! Maybe the guy is truly special. At this point, I think he should make the team in place of Shoppach and play him against RH pitching some also. He seems to be able to hit both RH and LH pitching well. I'll take him. He's a potential difference maker and maybe just enough to get us in the PO.

    We can pick up another catcher later if we have an injury. Shoppach hit around .190 last year or so didn't he. He was a black hole. In the past he has done better but for God's sake let Lavarnway have a shot at this point. Maybe we can pick up a decent reliever or a prospect by offering Shoppach to some team needing a catcher. There are teams out there who do.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Shoppach hit around .190 last year or so didn't he. He was a black hole. In the past he has done better but for God's sake let Lavarnway have a shot at this point. Maybe we can pick up a decent reliever or a prospect by offering Shoppach to some team needing a catcher. There are teams out there who do.

    Shoppach hits lefties very very well, but it will never be enough to outweigh what Lava can do. I still think trading Salty makes more sense.

    We'd get way more for him than Shopp.
    Lava catches vs all RHPs and DHs vs some LHPs.
    Shoppach catches vs almost all LH starters.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Absolutely agree--play Lavarnway. Starters and relievers scare me to death--all starters except Beckett and every single reliever. Sox are going to need a lot of runs, and Iglesias can't field dingers or most hard hit balls.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Absolutely agree--play Lavarnway. Starters and relievers scare me to death--all starters except Beckett and every single reliever. Sox are going to need a lot of runs, and Iglesias can't field dingers or most hard hit balls.
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Many hard hit balls can be in the SS area. I still think Iggy can and would make 60-90 more plays than Aviles over a full season.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    What it really comes down to is winning games. We are going to score a lot of runs with Iglesias or Aviles. We will win more games with Iglesias. Last year we just flat out couldn't keep the other team from scoring as well as needed. We were not winning games we should have been able to win when our guys put 5-6 runs on the board. We need to hold the other teams to 2-3 runs a lot more often. Iglesias helps us do that.

    I've got to say though that Aviles has made a very strong case for itself.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I've got to say though that Aviles has made a very strong case for itself.

    He's also looked a little better in the field than I imagined.

    Many have knocked him for no history of playing FT all year. He doesn't have an injury history, so I don't see it as a concern.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I prefer Aviles only because the Sox have always won with hitting over defense.  Wasn't Lugo the SS in 2007?  And in 2004 wasn't the SS a loaner for 1/2 a season and then moved on?    But I also think Iglesias would be a lot more fun to watch.  Great fielding is the poetry of baseball.  Plus the pitchers will no doubt love him. 

    Same for Lavarnway.  He's not there yet defensively, but can hit--probably a lot more than Saltalamacchia or Shoppach.  As a righty he will provide some leavening for a lineup that has relied heavily on lefties. 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Somebody please explain why I'm wrong about the pitching.  I liked Cafardo's column on Bard today and am therefore hopeful about him.  No question the big three starters are in good shape this spring. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Assuming Tuck thinks he's ready defensively, the only issue I see with making Lav the starting C and trading Salty is depth at the position.  How many games has Lav caught in any one year up to this point?  It's a long season ... Salty definitely wore down last year despite the fact he has a longer professional history than Lav and Tek caught a lot more games than you would expect from a back up.

    I'd be worried about our chances with Shopp starting 40% of the games ... never mind what would happen if there were an injury.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    As the team showed last year, if the big 3 ( Beckett, Lester and Buchholz ) this team probably wins a lot of games but if even one of those guys go down we have a problem. It is encouraging that Schilling thinks Bard will be successful but there is significant concern in that department. The last start was encouraging though, even after giving up 5 runs. And the #5 starter is just as unproven. 

    I'm more optimistic than I was a couple months ago as Padilla and Cook look potentially acceptable and Doubront appears to have stepped up. Cody Ross looks like a good pick up. Lavarnway is on target and he could be huge going forward. Hope springs eternal!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": [QUOTE]Assuming Tuck thinks he's ready defensively, the only issue I see with making Lav the starting C and trading Salty is depth at the position.  How many games has Lav caught in any one year up to this point?  It's a long season ... Salty definitely wore down last year despite the fact he has a longer professional history than Lav and Tek caught a lot more games than you would expect from a back up. I'd be worried about our chances with Shopp starting 40% of the games ... never mind what would happen if there were an injury. Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE] Great post...trading Salty leaves the Sox extremely thin in catching depth. I love Lav, but he's never caught more than 66 games in a season. Might be a huge stretch to ask him catch 100 plus games this year. What would he have left in September? I'd rather have him go to Pawtucket and catch/DH for at least half of the season. By Dhing at times, his legs may be a little more fresh late in the year.and he clearly won't get many DH atbats in Boston with Ortiz here...
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Somebody please explain why I'm wrong about the pitching.  I liked Cafardo's column on Bard today and am therefore hopeful about him.  No question the big three starters are in good shape this spring. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    The same was said last spring and we all know how that worked out. 

    The sawx have no depth at starting pitching. If you are a sawx fan this should be of major concern. 

    I was very suprised given what happened last year that they didn't make any moves for a few starters. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": 
    I'd rather have him go to Pawtucket and catch/DH for at least half of the season. By Dhing at times, his legs may be a little more fresh late in the year.and he clearly won't get many DH atbats in Boston with Ortiz here...
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]
    The problem with having him DH a decent % in Pawtucket to save his legs is that it gives them less of a chance to judge his progress behind the plate.  If he starts the year in AAA you have to imagine they want him to get a lot of time catching which still leads to the same problem.  I guess if Shopp shows some game, they may be more comfortable with more playing time for him if they deal Salty to fill another hole (pitching).  Or if they aren't comfortable with Shopp AND they don't need to trade to fill any holes, then maybe they bring up Lav to split time with Salty and decide Salty's fate in the off-season.

    IMHO, it still seems like a long-shot that Lav makes the 25-man out of ST.  Despite our excitement about his potential as a hitter, keeping him in AAA to start the season seems like the safest course of action.  Salty/Shopp L/R platoon should be good offense and at least decent on D.  Plus, they have stated they aren't going to carry 3 catchers and with Lav in AAA, they have depth and options to deal with whatever needs arise as the season develops.  I think it's a safe bet that Lav has no more than 3 months left in his minor league career though.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : The problem with having him DH a decent % in Pawtucket to save his legs is that it gives them less of a chance to judge his progress behind the plate.  If he starts the year in AAA you have to imagine they want him to get a lot of time catching which still leads to the same problem.  I guess if Shopp shows some game, they may be more comfortable with more playing time for him if they deal Salty to fill another hole (pitching).  Or if they aren't comfortable with Shopp AND they don't need to trade to fill any holes, then maybe they bring up Lav to split time with Salty and decide Salty's fate in the off-season. IMHO, it still seems like a long-shot that Lav makes the 25-man out of ST.  Despite our excitement about his potential as a hitter, keeping him in AAA to start the season seems like the safest course of action.  Salty/Shopp L/R platoon should be good offense and at least decent on D.  Plus, they have stated they aren't going to carry 3 catchers and with Lav in AAA, thety have depth and options to deal with whatever needs arise as the season develops.  I think it's a safe bet that Lav has no more than 3 months left in his minor league career though. Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE] Great points, but I think you can still judge his progress letting him catch maybe 3 or 4 games a week. Also, the Pawtucket coaching staff has implemented Gary Tuck's catching program, so he'll get his work in... They can also shuttle him back and forth a bit over the first half whenever Salty and Shoppach are dinged up and need a rest. His bat clearly looks ready, and there is no perfect solution here, but I'd rather have him in AAA where he can be rested more and maybe be a huge contributor down the stretch....
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Just a few quick responses from down here...
    You all are getting much better coverage and are able to read much more than I am...very poor coverage from the local "scribes" so I'm not in on any rumors, just telling you what I'm seeing.
    As much as I would prefer Iggy, Aviles is getting most of the playing time and doing well with it.
    The games I've seen have had more Shoppach than Salty, and only late-game fill-ins from Lavarnway. I still see Lavarnway in AAA.
    Hassan or any of the other "kid" outfielders are NOT coming back to Boston barring a miracle. DMac, Ross, Sweeney and Ells are locks, barring a deal and unless someone gets traded, at least until Crawford returns. Nava has been totally invisible.
    I wish I had better news on Bard, but he's been weak to say the least, overthrowing and wild. Cook and Doubront look better for four and five based on what I've seen, but Who knows what other deals and thoughts are in the works.
    Youk is a statue at third, all the more reason for Iggy. Ross and Sweeney, on the other hand, are very strong defenders.
     
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