A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Just a few quick responses from down here... You all are getting much better coverage and are able to read much more than I am...very poor coverage from the local "scribes" so I'm not in on any rumors, just telling you what I'm seeing. As much as I would prefer Iggy, Aviles is getting most of the playing time and doing well with it. The games I've seen have had more Shoppach than Salty, and only late-game fill-ins from Lavarnway. I still see Lavarnway in AAA. Hassan or any of the other "kid" outfielders are NOT coming back to Boston barring a miracle. DMac, Ross, Sweeney and Ells are locks, barring a deal and unless someone gets traded, at least until Crawford returns. Nava has been totally invisible. I wish I had better news on Bard, but he's been weak to say the least, overthrowing and wild. Cook and Doubront look better for four and five based on what I've seen, but Who knows what other deals and thoughts are in the works. Youk is a statue at third, all the more reason for Iggy. Ross and Sweeney, on the other hand, are very strong defenders.
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]

    Interesting. Thanks. Cafardo likes Bard to start, and I guess Doubront is the 5th. It never hurts to have a 6th (Cook) or 7th (Aceves) hanging around somewhere. Plenty of holes in the bullpen.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'll go out on a limb and say we'll get starts from 9 different pitchers.  Here is my list which I formulated using the time honored W.A.G. method Wink

    Lester 32
    Buchholz 30
    Beckett 25
    Doubront 25
    Bard 20
    Dice 14
    Cook 10
    Ace 3
    Padilla 3


    ... and yes, no starts for Miller and I hope I am right unless he morphs into Randy Johnson during his rehab assignment in Pawtucket.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Jid, thanks again for your reports.  I've lived in Fla. a couple of times and was always amazed at the dearth of pro sports in the papers, no fire like in N.E. or even the West Coast (to a lesser extent.)  As to your report, I'm very relieved that Cook and Doubie are doing well and hope Cook keeps progressing and can stay healthy so he can jump in and start if any of our starters falter.  From all reports, I'm worried about Bard.  I guess a true test will come over the next two weeks as he faces stiffer competition and goes longer on his starts.  Some I've read don't like the idea of relievers becoming starters because of injury. 

    The other worry for me is Youk.  It seems like he's getting older before our eyes and doesn't seem too spry defensively in ST.  He has been my favorite player for a while but I'm almost wishing he could be traded to avoid another Lowell situation developing.  Jid, do you think he's still recovering from injuries? 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    And in 2004 wasn't the SS a loaner for 1/2 a season and then moved on?   

    Back in the day, Cabrera was a very good fielder.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Great post...trading Salty leaves the Sox extremely thin in catching depth. I love Lav, but he's never caught more than 66 games in a season. Might be a huge stretch to ask him catch 100 plus games this year. What would he have left in September? I'd rather have him go to Pawtucket and catch/DH for at least half of the season. By Dhing at times, his legs may be a little more fresh late in the year.and he clearly won't get many DH atbats in Boston with Ortiz here...

    Then send Salty to AAA.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'll go out on a limb and say we'll get starts from 9 different pitchers.  Here is my list which I formulated using the time honored W.A.G. method Wink

    Lester 32
    Buchholz 30
    Beckett 25
    Doubront 25
    Bard 20
    Dice 14
    Cook 10
    Ace 3
    Padilla 3


    ... and yes, no starts for Miller and I hope I am right unless he morphs into Randy Johnson during his rehab assignment in Pawtucket.

    I'll go:
    Beckett 29
    Lester   27
    Buch     27
    Doub     22
    Dice-K   17
    Cook      12
    Padilla    7
    Bard        7
    Miller      7
    Ace         7
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Pretty generous expectations for buch seeings how he's only made more than 16 starts in a season once.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    ^^^ Did I mention I used the W.A.G. method??? Still, Buch had 28 starts in 2010 and I'm not putting too much stock in last years stress fracture issue or the number of starts for his age 23 & 24 seasons.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]^^^ Did I mention I used the W.A.G. method??? Still, Buch had 28 starts in 2010 and I'm not putting too much stock in last years stress fracture issue or the number of starts for his age 23 & 24 seasons.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    So you only put stock the one season he managed more than 16 starts and not the 3 he didn't? 

    Shocking........

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : So you only put stock the one season he managed more than 16 starts and not the 3 he didn't?  Shocking........
    Posted by TBINFL[/QUOTE]

    I put more stock in these numbers:
    14, 29, 32, 26, 26, 24

    The number of total starts he had over the last 6 years.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    TBINFL - So much for civil discourse.  
    1 - WAG stands for Wild A$$ Guess ... I spent about 30 seconds coming up with my "prediction"
    2 - Putting aside his 2007 'cup-o-coffee', Buch had two season in which his starts were mostly limited by his age and development path, then the 28GS season followed by last year's DL shortened season.  I am making a bold prediction he won't have major DL issues and won't be demoted for pitching poorly.

    Instead of nit picking you could just make your own prediction ...
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I put more stock in these numbers: 14, 29, 32, 26, 26, 24 The number of total starts he had over the last 6 years.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    And why were so many of those starts in the minors? Oh yeah, because of INJURY.

    Thanks for proving my point. The guy is fragile.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : And why were so many of those starts in the minors? Oh yeah, because of INJURY. Thanks for proving my point. The guy is fragile.
    Posted by TBINFL[/QUOTE]

    Injuries???

    2008 - Buch started the season with the Sox and was DL'd for a torn fingernail in May.  He spent several weeks in AAA to work on his pitching.  He came back for about a month and stunk before being sent to AA and eventually the AFL. 

    2009 - Started the season in AAA and didn't get called up until mid-season when Wake was DL'd.  He stayed with the team for the remainder of the season going 7-4 in 16 starts.

    2010 - He had the hyper-extended knee / hamstring issue which happened while running the bases (freak injury). Otherwise he pitched well and made 28 starts.

    And of course, we know about the back issue last year.  What part of this indicates he is fragile?  Or did I miss something in his injury history?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Injuries??? 2008 - Buch started the season with the Sox and was DL'd for a torn fingernail in May.  He spent several weeks in AAA to work on his pitching.  He came back for about a month and stunk before being sent to AA and eventually the AFL.  2009 - Started the season in AAA and didn't get called up until mid-season when Wake was DL'd.  He stayed with the team for the remainder of the season going 7-4 in 16 starts. 2010 - He had the hyper-extended knee / hamstring issue which happened while running the bases (freak injury). Otherwise he pitched well and made 28 starts. And of course, we know about the back issue last year.  What part of this indicates he is fragile?  Or did I miss something in his injury history?
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    Ummm...I don't know, maybe the part about being INJURED 3 out of 4 seasons.....

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In response to "Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I": [QUOTE]Great post...trading Salty leaves the Sox extremely thin in catching depth. I love Lav, but he's never caught more than 66 games in a season. Might be a huge stretch to ask him catch 100 plus games this year. What would he have left in September? I'd rather have him go to Pawtucket and catch/DH for at least half of the season. By Dhing at times, his legs may be a little more fresh late in the year.and he clearly won't get many DH atbats in Boston with Ortiz here... Then send Salty to AAA. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] So you think that Lavarnway, who has never caught more than 66 games in a season is all of a sudden ready to catch nearly twice that, and do it in the big leagues? Interesting, especially after watching Salty turn to toast at the end of last season with his increased work load...To me, it makes a heck of a lot more sense to keep Lav in Pawtucket where you can control his catching load and DH him a few times a week, so that maybe he can be a shot in the arm in August. They can always shuttle him up to Boston for a few starts during the year as well. Plus, it's very possible they could get better than average production out of Salty/Shoppach...
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Ummm...I don't know, maybe the part about being INJURED 3 out of 4 seasons.....
    Posted by TBINFL[/QUOTE]
    I just noticed your posts in other threads which seem to indicate you are a troll (srsly, everyone of them is you contradicting someone without ever really offering anything of your own) ... but in the constructive spirit of this thread, I will respond.

    You had asked why he had so many MiLB starts.  The answer is that he stunk after his rookie no hitter.  He didn't find his groove again until the 2009 mid-season call up.  Thats the reason ... he wasn't a full time MLB player until 2010.  And I am pretty sure you had no idea of that when you asked the question.  

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : And why were so many of those starts in the minors? Oh yeah, because of INJURY. Thanks for proving my point. The guy is fragile.
    Posted by TBINFL[/QUOTE]

    The main reason he was in the minors was because he was too young and inexperienced for MLB at first, then he stunk up the place and admitted he lost his confidence. You don't start that many games a year (even in the minors) if you are "fragile" or injury-prone.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Ummm...I don't know, maybe the part about being INJURED 3 out of 4 seasons.....
    Posted by TBINFL[/QUOTE]

    You obviously do not know your behind from a hole in the ground so why don't you trot back to Yankeeland and critque Joba with the same acumen. Buchholz is very likely to be excellent this year. Just watch.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : You obviously do not know your behind from a hole in the ground so why don't you trot back to Yankeeland and critque Joba with the same acumen. Buchholz is very likely to be excellent this year. Just watch.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    buch is very likely to be injured this year. Just watch.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : buch is very likely to be injured this year. Just watch.
    Posted by TBINFL[/QUOTE]

    Way to go out on a limb....
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I believe a realistic expectation from Clay is 28 - 32 starts with the assumption that he is 100% healthy (back is fine) heading into the season. However, you do set-up your team for injuries. It does not appear that Clay has suffered recurring injuries to the same area which is why I think my numbers are reasonable. But as I have seen in the past with Pavano, anything is possible. Some players just have bad luck when it comes to injuries. I don't think any follower of the game is ready to put that label on Clay. I do think this is an important year for Clay and how the Sox look at his future with the team.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : You obviously do not know your behind from a hole in the ground so why don't you trot back to Yankeeland and critque Joba with the same acumen. Buchholz is very likely to be excellent this year. Just watch.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I wonder what he projects for Yankee injuries this year.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I wonder what he projects for Yankee injuries this year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I assume that there will be time spent on the DL by at least one of the Yank's top three starters. Which is why the Yanks have depth at SP, something the sawx do not have.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I wonder what he projects for Yankee injuries this year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I am predicting right now that Garcia will be in the starting rotation when camp breaks. He will be with CC and Kuroda. I see Hughes in one of the other 2 spots meaning that either Nova or Pineda starts the season in AAA. What happens in April will determine what NY does with Andy once he heads north in May.

    I don't see Andy going injury free for the year & like Clay, my expectations for Hughes are high but I will temper them somewhat.

    As to Nova & Pineda; this is difficult because the upside on both is high and I think NY will be extremely careful with both.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

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