A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Lav should be a great guy to have regardless Boomer.  Last year we were reading about the kid both good and bad, now we have him as an option from the start.   If Ciriaco keeps playing his heart out, there may be more guys than just Salty who need to play hard all season in order to stay in the lineup. It's great to have more options going in.  Now if we can just get Kalish healthy maybe our RF position could also become a bit more clear for the future.  Ross and Sweeney will help but I don't see either starting next season.
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]
    not too sure about that. Ross seems to have a swing tailored for fenway. if he plays well kalish might be the 4th outfielder in 2013.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : not too sure about that. Ross seems to have a swing tailored for fenway. if he plays well kalish might be the 4th outfielder in 2013.
    Posted by mef429[/QUOTE]

    He appears to be tailored to Fenway but that doesn't translate into a huge change in ones career numbers which in Cody's case are mediocre overall.  His OBP is what worries me most.  If he can hit 270 to 280 with some pop and stay around or above his OBP of 349 against lefties I will be happy but hes not an every day guy.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : He appears to be tailored to Fenway but that doesn't translate into a huge change in ones career numbers which in Cody's case are mediocre overall.  His OBP is what worries me most.  If he can hit 270 to 280 with some pop and stay around or above his OBP of 349 against lefties I will be happy but hes not an every day guy.
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]

    I have been high on Cody since last fall. I realize his numbers have slipped the past couple of years, but he is in his prime now, and must have had his numbers suffer a bit by the pitcher's parks he played in so often.

    I think if you look at Cody's career numbers and how they compare to our RH numbers last year, you will see that for just $3M, we have a nice opportunity to get some pretty darn good production or maybe even a break-out season. Here's a breakdown of Cody's career numbers pro-rated to 650 PAs:

    vs LHPs: .282  39  110  41 2B+3B (.349/.563/.912)  
    vs RHPs: .253  18    75  38 2B+3B (.313/.414/.727)

    Total:      .261  25   92   39 2B+3B (.323/.456/.779)

    2011 Red Sox RF:
    Total:      .233  14   58  26 2B+3B (.299/.353/.652)

    As you can see, Cody's career numbers blow the combined Red Sox RF's of 2011 out of the water. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2012's RF numbers look like this:

    Ross (500 PAs) and Sweeney (150)
    Total:     .275  25   100  45 2B+3B (.340/.510/.850)



     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Ross sure has looked good in ST but I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney ends getting a similar # of AB. Sweeney is better defensively and in Fenway's RF that is important.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    yeah but with jacoby tracking down any ball across the field it kind of takes some of the pressure off ross right? and i think until CC gets back Ross will be in LF and macdonald in RF dont quote me on that though
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]yeah but with jacoby tracking down any ball across the field it kind of takes some of the pressure off ross right? and i think until CC gets back Ross will be in LF and macdonald in RF dont quote me on that though
    Posted by mef429[/QUOTE]

    DMac is an OK fielder in LF, but looked horrible in RF last year. With CC out, I see this type of set-up:

          vs RHPs     vs LHPs
    LF Ross            DMac  
    RF Sweeney    Ross

    This will give us a good chance to see Ross everyday vs RHPs and LHPs.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    King Felix first start of the season, 8 stellar innings, no decision. Man it must be tough to have to put up with that on such a terrible team time and time again. Just one more reason 300 game winners are will be so few going forward.  


     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I've always like Felix, and spent many a time arguing for trying to get this guy, but gave up a couple years ago. He's certainly one of the best 5 starters in MLB today.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I have been high on Cody since last fall. I realize his numbers have slipped the past couple of years, but he is in his prime now, and must have had his numbers suffer a bit by the pitcher's parks he played in so often. I think if you look at Cody's career numbers and how they compare to our RH numbers last year, you will see that for just $3M, we have a nice opportunity to get some pretty darn good production or maybe even a break-out season. Here's a breakdown of Cody's career numbers pro-rated to 650 PAs: vs LHPs: .282  39  110  41 2B+3B (.349/.563/.912)   vs RHPs: .253  18    75  38 2B+3B (.313/.414/.727) Total:      .261  25   92   39 2B+3B (.323/.456/.779) 2011 Red Sox RF: Total:      .233  14   58  26 2B+3B (.299/.353/.652) As you can see, Cody's career numbers blow the combined Red Sox RF's of 2011 out of the water. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2012's RF numbers look like this: Ross (500 PAs) and Sweeney (150) Total:     .275  25   100  45 2B+3B (.340/.510/.850)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I like Ross as the RHH upgrade we needed moon.  While Drew was injury prone, in his first three years in Boston, he still produced a very high OBP, which is always a huge plus for a 270/280, 20hr guy.  I'm not sure we will ever see that out of Cody but hopefully as a group we get more production overall in RF.

    A nice year our of Crawford wouldn't hurt either.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I like Ross as the RHH upgrade we needed moon.  While Drew was injury prone, in his first three years in Boston, he still produced a very high OBP, which is always a huge plus for a 270/280, 20hr guy.  I'm not sure we will ever see that out of Cody but hopefully as a group we get more production overall in RF.

    I agree. OBP is more imporrtant than Slg%, but for $3M you can't get both.

    A nice year our of Crawford wouldn't hurt either.

    True enough. I do think that a combination of DMac, Ross and maybe even some Aviles in LF can outproduce the 2011 LF numbers by themselves. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'm hopeful that Lars Anderson has made the leap to be mlb worthy and tears up AAA ball and then we play him in LF!

    Oh yeah, it is April Fools day isn't it!

    I'm sincere about this though. Wouldn't it be great if he finally puts everything together and becomes a stud. He didn't look that bad in LF in what little I saw of him. The chances are admittedly not good but stranger things have happened. Just look at Toronto for that one!
     
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'm excited to know we have so many prospects banging on the door, and so many more just a step or two away.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    lars is going to be a great trade chip this season
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Could be.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I hope they hold on to Lars for a while, hoping his value goes up a little. I sense that it will. He's still almost worthless unless he starts hitting well at the AAA level.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I hope they hold on to Lars for a while, hoping his value goes up a little. I sense that it will. He's still almost worthless unless he starts hitting well at the AAA level.

    Right boom. He has more value to us right now than in trade. He's a possible LF option and if AGon get's hurt, I think he'd have a strong chance at being our 1Bman rather than move Youk, Papi or Salty to 1B and create another hole. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I've said it before. Aceves is a crazy man. Make him our closer. The man has no fear whatsoever. He would be a solid closer who could give us several innings if a game goes into extra innings. That ability alone could win us 1-2 games. Also as predicted, Bailey was an injury waiting to happen. Melancon seems suited to fit the setup role to me and hopefully he can do that for us.

    Overall, if Doubront and Bard perform as expected, we should do well. I'm confident in Lester, Beckett, Buchholz. As moon has stated, it doesn't take much at all to give us better performance than we got last year from the #4 and 5 slots.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    i dont know about aceves as a closer. I have no doubt he would thrive in the role but i would rather have him used more than less. last year he gave us 114 beautiful innings. If you make him a closer that switches from him having to pitch multiple innings to just one (usually) and his IP would drop to somewhere around 60-75.

    Melanchon would be a better choice at the position and bard an even better choice. he was supposed to be the future closer anyway so that just makes it an even more bone headed move to say bard is going in the roto while baileys hurt. Why not give the guy with the stuff to be a great starter the position in the roto, melanchon the setup man and bard closes. at least until bailey comes off the DL then shift melanchon down and bard goes back to his usual set up duties.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    So far the Bard experiment does not appear to be going well and I personally question the projection of him as a starting pitcher. Clearly Aceves won the job on the field but projection of Bard's potential put Aceves in the bullpen.

    Unless you are Aceves, his being in the bullpen is not all that bad, he gives the RS the same kind of versatility he did last year, spot starts, to multiple inning and single inning appearances. The value of this IMO is much higher than what it converts to in contract value or stature within the game so I get Aceves being annoyed having rightfully earned the starting job this spring. 

    But I question whether taking the best reliever on the team (Bard) and making him a "bad" starter is so wise. I readily accept that baseball FO people know a lot more than I do so I hope I am wrong. But I don't get how a two pitch, pitcher gracefully converts to a starter and coming off of the bad spring does not help. Bailey starting the year on the DL will just magnify Bard's absence from the bullpen too.
     




     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I've said it before. Aceves is a crazy man. Make him our closer. The man has no fear whatsoever. He would be a solid closer who could give us several innings if a game goes into extra innings. That ability alone could win us 1-2 games. 

    I think you may be on to something, but I can't help but think back to my original position of moving Bard to closer when Paps walked. It's probably too late for that move now, but the more I see what Bard is looking like as a starter, the more I am cringing.

    Aceves as a closer could also see him pitching the 8th and 9th, not just extra innings.

    Also as predicted, Bailey was an injury waiting to happen. 

    Boom, you were dead on on this one, but it's the thumb not the arm. Still you called it.

    Melancon seems suited to fit the setup role to me and hopefully he can do that for us.

    I'd love him as out 7th inning guy, but that would mean Bard is back in the pen. That ain't happenin' soon.

    Overall, if Doubront and Bard perform as expected, we should do well. I'm confident in Lester, Beckett, Buchholz. As moon has stated, it doesn't take much at all to give us better performance than we got last year from the #4 and 5 slots.

    Look at my projection thread. The pitchers we lost had an ERA or about 5.35 and a WHIP of 1.40. That's not counting Andrew Miller, who I don't see getting a chance this , so the numbers are even worse if you include him. It's about 600 innings being replaced (counting Miller) if my memory is correct.
    More innings from Buch, Bard, Morales, Dice-K, Doubront, Tazawa and others plus new innings from Bailey, Melancon, Cook, and others just have to combine to be better than 5.35/1.40.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    But I question whether taking the best reliever on the team (Bard) and making him a "bad" starter is so wise. I readily accept that baseball FO people know a lot more than I do so I hope I am wrong. But I don't get how a two pitch, pitcher gracefully converts to a starter and coming off of the bad spring does not help. Bailey starting the year on the DL will just magnify Bard's absence from the bullpen too.

    Nice katz. You said it better in one paragraph than what I have been trying to say in pages and pages since this idea was put forth.

    It makes no sense to me at all.

    My biggest fear is that when Bard returns to the pen (and I'm pretty sure it will happen), he won't be nearly as effective as he was for 3 years.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 6k42lt913c. Show 6k42lt913c's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Bradford WEEI

    When the Red Sox were analyzing Jonathan Papelbon's foray into starting during the 2007 spring training, it was determined that his third pitch, the curveball, was never going to be good enough to rely on more than a few times an outing. Bard had to show the Sox his third-best offering, the changeup, wasn't in the same classification. Sunday, the righty went a long way in accomplishing that feat.

    Bard only threw 10 changeups in his outing against Toronto, a few of which went horribly awry. But for the most part he was not only able to control the pitch, it actually proved to be of swing-and-miss quality. Add in the fact that he was able to use a two-seamer for pitch count purposes, and, despite the five runs allowed, Bard did exhibit the qualities the team was looking for when evaluating the pitcher's ability to start a game.

    He got swings and misses on his slider when facing right-handed hitters, got whiffs from lefties when throwing the changeup and ground balls when using the two-seamer. As Valentine noted, Bard looked like a starter. Case closed.

    What should be understood if Bard does end up in the rotation is that there are going to be these types of six-inning, five-run outings along the way. When Texas moved C.J. Wilson to the rotation from the bullpen, one of the things that made it work was the lefty's understanding that there were multiple elements that had to be considered if he was to make the change.

    Ask the Rangers folks what made Wilson's switch work and they will point to the pitcher's intelligence. Bard is cut from the same cloth.

    While many might think the success Bard has enjoyed since 2009 is strictly a product of his 100 mph arm, the fact is that he has adjusted and grown as a pitcher along the way. When he went through his worst slump as a major leaguer during the latter months of '11, it wasn't because he suddenly didn't know what he was doing. That bump in the road was due to an inability to physically keep his arm slot at a high level due to fatigue, causing a three-quarters delivery that, in turn made the plane of his pitches easier for hitters to identify.

    And there will be more adjustments. But, even with Alfredo Aceves' electric stuff and extensive pitch-mix, it is Bard who has the best chance to enter into the world of top-of-the-rotation starter. It might take some time, but whether they believe it or not, it's a wait that should be worthwhile

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    ...but the pen is in shambles.
     

Share