A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Another flawless observation, and agreed.
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

    That's why Katz got my vote for poster of the year last year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I've read articles in recent days that Bard has added two more pitches to his arsenal. BV was impressed by those pitches the other day. Guess that we'll have to wit and see.
    Posted by Calzone65[/QUOTE]

    You are correct, Calzone...he was throwing the fastball, two different "sliders" and a change-up for strikes the other day.  At one point, he retired 13 out of 14 (7 by strikeout).  He looked dominant.  

    Alot of people on this board will tell you that Aceves "won" a starting spot "statistically," (even though their e.r.a.'s were nearly identical in games started this spring), but what they fail to mention is that there were major concerns that Aceves seemed to tire once he reached the 6th, and with his back issues, they were concerned that he may be a "5 inning" type starter.  It's not all about "stats" in Spring Training, but when you're not able to actually see the games, "stats" are what some people have to go by... 
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I posted this somewhere else but I'll ask again here.  Why does everyone keep saying Bard is a two pitch pitcher?  While he mainly relied upon the four seamer and slider, he also used the two seamer and change up last year.  Granted, his change up rate was about 7% and the sinker was something like 5% so the fastball and slider were his bread and butter.  But even if he stuck to that mix is it really the end of the world?  What's the difference between Bard's pitch mix in 2011 and, say, Beckett's mix earlier in his career (something like 65% FB, 25%CB, 10%CH)?

    Not saying any of this means he will/won't be sucessful ... I just don't get the two pitch argument.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I posted this somewhere else but I'll ask again here.  Why does everyone keep saying Bard is a two pitch pitcher?  While he mainly relied upon the four seamer and slider, he also used the two seamer and change up last year.  Granted, his change up rate was about 7% and the sinker was something like 5% so the fastball and slider were his bread and butter.  But even if he stuck to that mix is it really the end of the world?  What's the difference between Bard's pitch mix in 2011 and, say, Beckett's mix earlier in his career (something like 65% FB, 25%CB, 10%CH)? Not saying any of this means he will/won't be sucessful ... I just don't get the two pitch argument.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    You are 100% correct, but keep in mind, there are a lot of posters who don't actually read other posts.  You can explain something a million different ways that refute their theories, but it generally falls on deaf ears...
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Jasko - FWIW, I'm not complaining about having to repeat myself. I mentioned it in another thread that was mainly about ... IDK, someone bitching about the FO or something else novel and interesting*.  I reposted here because this is the most likely place to get a decent answer.


    *for the remainder of the season purple italics will be my sarcasm font
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Jasko - FWIW, I'm not complaining about having to repeat myself. I mentioned it in another thread that was mainly about ... IDK, someone bitching about the FO or something else novel and interesting* .  I reposted here because this is the most likely place to get a decent answer. *for the remainder of the season purple italics will be my sarcasm font
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    Lol...I hear ya...bitching about the Sox is a New England birthright.  I think that all of the success the Sox have had over the past decade has actually confused a portion of the fanbase...
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    111, your point is well taken. I still am not convinced Bard should have been moved to starter. It's more about us needing him in the pen than about the risk of making him a starter. Now our pen is even more in need.

    I hope I can come back here in June and say I was all wrong.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon - I guess we'll have to see how long Bailey is out.  The plan of Bailey-Melancon-Ace looked good on paper at least.  If Douby keeps pitching decently and Cook doesn't dislocate his thumb, you may get your wish sooner than later.  Anyway, my point wasn't to rehash the whole Bard argument.  There's no right answer until it plays out.  I just hear people keep saying Bard only has two pitches and he'll need to add one this spring, but he actually used four pitches last year.  
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : That's why Katz got my vote for poster of the year last year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Mine too
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Any vote from a Yankee fan that nominates Katz as "poster of the year on a Red Sox forum should be weighted ten times that of a Red Sox fan. Bravo and Kudos to Katz. This is like a little old Roman Catholic Italian lady dressed in black telling us that Billy Graham was the "Man of the Year" for Time Magazine.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Any vote from a Yankee fan that nominates Katz as "poster of the year on a Red Sox forum should be weighted ten times that of a Red Sox fan. Bravo and Kudos to Katz. This is like a little old Roman Catholic Italian lady dressed in black telling us that Billy Graham was the "Man of the Year" for Time Magazine.
    Posted by 6k42lt913c[/QUOTE]

    katz has a keen insight that is not affected by his fan bent. He & Chip (redsox571) were the 2 best ever here, and other Yankee fans would agree. No reason for you to be melodramatic, yet again, however.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Katz is certainly welcomed back by all and was missed in his absence. Solid voice of reason and I like the overview position he often took with issues. It's nice to read reasonable insight, respectfully delivered!

    Bard is actually doing a little better than I expected. I now think he probably makes it but that 2 seamer is probably the key to me. He's going to have to pitch to contact more. His era is going to go up but I think he can afford that some. If he gives us 170 innings and a 4.50 era I'm very happy. That's a solid #4 or 5 in the AL East IMO, at the cost he represents. On this team, that's maybe 15 wins.

    It's fortunate that Matsuzaka is close to coming back. We are going to need him. If we can get through this year needing mainly 7 starters we are in the hunt for a great team this year.

    I'm very confident Aceves will be a decent closer. He will get plenty of work and he's the best choice. Hopefully Melancon will emerge at the 8th inning spot and the rest of the pen hangs in there enough to be good overall. The key is to keep their workload down. If there is an extra player on the roster, it should be a reliever in the first month of the season. Maybe a Bowden for example. We see how the relievers do and bring up Cook before 5/1 and lose the guy not producing from the pen or trade someone.


     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : katz has a keen insight that is not affected by his fan bent. He & Chip (redsox571) were the 2 best ever here, and other Yankee fans would agree. No reason for you to be melodramatic, yet again, however.
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]
    Steven, you are a class act also. Just misguided in your team selection!

    Cool
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I now think he probably makes it but that 2 seamer is probably the key to me. He's going to have to pitch to contact more. His era is going to go up but I think he can afford that some. 

    We see how the relievers do and bring up Cook before 5/1 and lose the guy not producing from the pen or trade someone.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Boom - Good point on pitching to contact.  I have been more optimistic than some re: Bard starting in part because of some changes to how Bard pitched last year.  His GB rate went up and I think that might, MIGHT indicate he will be able to keep his pitch counts lower than a pure strikeout guy.  If he can do that and still bring the filthy stuff when he needs the K he could be pretty darn good.

    You mention losing one of the less productive pen guys when Cook comes up.  Since Cook won't be sent to the BP, who do you see moving from the rotation to the the pen?  If Bard is really stinking it up, I can see him being moved in a heartbeat but if he and Douby are both decent ...?  I mean, that would be a nice problem to have but you have to wonder what they would do.  If Cook isn't injured or suddenly forgets how to throw he is too valuable to let go but do you derail two young cheap starters for a one year rental?
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Boom - Good point on pitching to contact.  I have been more optimistic than some re: Bard starting in part because of some changes to how Bard pitched last year.  His GB rate went up and I think that might, MIGHT indicate he will be able to keep his pitch counts lower than a pure strikeout guy.  If he can do that and still bring the filthy stuff when he needs the K he could be pretty darn good. You mention losing one of the less productive pen guys when Cook comes up.  Since Cook won't be sent to the BP, who do you see moving from the rotation to the the pen?  If Bard is really stinking it up, I can see him being moved in a heartbeat but if he and Douby are both decent ...?  I mean, that would be a nice problem to have but you have to wonder what they would do.  If Cook isn't injured or suddenly forgets how to throw he is too valuable to let go but do you derail two young cheap starters for a one year rental?
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    with how questionable our BP is ATM i think you do. I think no matter how good bard is doing when cook is ready they move bard back to the BP we need someone besides aceves to anchor the BP
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : with how questionable our BP is ATM i think you do. I think no matter how good bard is doing when cook is ready they move bard back to the BP we need someone besides aceves to anchor the BP
    Posted by mef429[/QUOTE]

    I agree, but think Cook is ready now. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I agree, but think Cook is ready now. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    you think so?!!? thats great. i've heard that he will need at least 3 or 4 starts in the minors once the season starts before he will be stretched out enough but i did watch bits and pieces of him yesterday and he was looking DAMN GOOD. cook is the sleeper on this pitching staff
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Cook doesn't need to go 6 innings his first 2-3 starts.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Boom is on a roll. Good call on Aceves as the closer.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Boom, you must have a direct line to BV's office.  Are we going to see you  on the
    top step, leaning against the railing before the year is over?  I see that Khalish is on the 60 day disabled list...can someone tell me what's wrong with him?  This does not seem to be good for his future going forward.  I can't help but think of Lowrie and his potential--for which we waited and waited.  
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The good thing is that with Ross and Sweeney, we shouldn't need much from Kalish until 2013, but your point is well taken. 
     
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