A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Zero facts from you. 3 awards from me. You do the math....or get someone to help you. To you he's always been  hack. You knew nothing about him but slimed him from the start. Typical "hack" job from you.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    That's the best you got? Where are Hohler's distinguished awards for his lifetime service to journalism?

    Boom's facts: 3 awards for one article, nothing more. The awards:
    John Curley center for sports
    Sports society's true heroes
    Fred M. Hechinger grand prize

    These are UR several prestigious journalism awards?
    This is what you call prestigious?!!!

    I said your standards were low, but now I see they are bottom of the barrel.

    Here are true examples of prestigious awards in journalism:

    Bob Ryan:

    Awards
    • Dick Schaap Award for Outstanding Journalism recipient in 2006.
    • In 1996 Ryan won the Curt Gowdy Award from the Basketball Hall of Fame.
    • In 2000 he was the AP National Sportswriter of the Year.
    • He has been named the NSSA’s National Sportswriter of the Year four times (2000, 2007, 2008, 2009).[16]
    • He is also a member of the College Basketball Writers and New England Basketball Halls of Fame.

    Peter Gammons:

    Gammons is on the 10-person voting panel for the Fielding Bible Awards, an alternative to the Gold Glove Awards in Major League Baseball[5]

    Honors

    He was voted the National Sportswriter of the Yearin 1989, 1990 and 1993 by the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association. He has also been awarded an honorary Poynter Fellow from Yale University.[6]

    January 9, 2009 was proclaimed Peter Gammons day in the City of Boston. The proclamation was made by Michael Ross, president of the Boston City Council at the Hot Stove Cool Music Sports Roundtable at Fenway Park. 2010 marked the 10th anniversary of Hot Stove Cool Music, a charitable concert benefiting the Foundation To Be Named Later. At this event, Theo Epstein, Vice President and General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, announced a new scholarship in Gammons' name. The "Peter Gammons - Foundation To Be Named Later Scholarship presented by RISO" enables select Boston Public Schools students to attend college who otherwise might not have the chance.[7]

    Source: Wikipedia


    It's quite plain to see why you think that garbage by Hohler was "fair". It's that type of scum that justifies UR cheap, groundless PED accusations.

    You are the only poster low enough to use an internet site as a handle.
    Does this kind of shoddy self-promotion run rampant in Oceanside?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Not again.

    Can you guys take it to another thread or start one just for yourselves?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If ever a thread had the right title, this one does.  As fivekatz says, it is high time to ignore the fireworks about September and look at what we got for 2012.

    As for September, my take is to blame it all on the two guys leaving, Francona and Epstein, and keep remembering that on August 27 this team was headed for 100 wins and a great postseason, we thought.  For five months they were a great team.  Had the pitching not collapsed, Moneyball might have been supplanted by Beerball as the smart approach to winning baseball.  

    I think both of them had a great run.  Francona's getting a break by avoiding what would surely have been samson agonistes in 2012.  Epstein is getting rewarded with an astounding five year deal with the Cubs ownership.

    2012 is not different from any other year--management has to figure out who to hang onto and who not. 

    Pitching is the biggest problem.  Lackey probably needs to go, no doubt at significant cost.  Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz absolutely do not need to go and will be, if healthy (a big if), a great cornerstone for 2012.  Maybe Bard and Aceves both need to start, but, if that works, it means rebuilding the bullpen will be even harder.    Keep Papelbon if possible ($36M for three years?). 

    Ortiz has had a fantastic career in Boston and been, hands down, Theo's best acquisition.  But he's almost 36, has no versatility, is a lefty bat in a lineup that needs another righty bat, is talking like he wants to leave, and had a lousy September--1 dinger and 8 rbi's.  Offer him no more than $20M for two years and maybe just $16M.  If he walks, so be it.

    That said, while moving Youk to DH and backup 1B and 3B looks great, it also means the Sox won't have that great bat at 3B.  Aviles/Middleton or someone acquired will really be replacing Ortiz in the lineup, which probably means a dropoff. 

    Dump Tek and Wake.  Tek actually had a pretty good year, but in September he couldn't hit and couldn't throw anybody out except AGon, who plays for us.  The trend on Wake's knuckler in 2011 was that it became both more hittable and harder to catch.  In September his 7 "unearned" runs were more than any other Sox pitcher had for the entire season.  Harness will continue to blather, but the simple fact is that Wake's unreliable knuckler was the proximate cause of  21 runs in 24 innings.  His pursuit of the Sox wins record is now laughable. 

    Keep Ellsbury at almost any cost.   Fangraph rates him the best player in MLB.  He was certainly the best player the Sox had this year and far and away the best in September.   Thanks to Youk's big mouth in 2010, Jake thrived on being the outcast of poker flats in 2011. 

    Assume CC can only improve and that he, Pedey, Jake, AGon, and Youk are the cornerstones to the 2012 lineup. 

    Get a good righty bat for 3B or for the outfield.  If Lavarnway has any hope of being that guy, I would bring Tek back for one more year.  On that note, I was very impressed with Lavarnway's two starts in the final two games, one of which he personally took over and won.  

    Sign Scutaro for another year and hope someone else (Iglesias?) will emerge to replace him by the end of the year.  Keep Lowrie and Aviles unless someone else better is obtainable. 

    For manager, almost anyone with experience will do provided a battery of psychology tests confirms he won't succumb to the ridiculous pressure on any Sox manager.  The preliminary tests should be conducted by georom and bosox1941, who will simply keep telling him that every Sox manager is required to win all 162 regular season games and that all losses are his fault and his alone. 

    To summarize 2012:  forget September by blaming it on Theo and Terry; retain those parts of the April-August 2011 team headed for 100 wins who can reasonably be expected to help in 2012; key non-helpers are Lackey, Wake, Tek, and Ortiz. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I :
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I see ZERO evidence that Hohler is anything other than one of the Globe's best investigative reporters. That's because you can't distinguish one hack from another . He has won several prestigious journalism awards. For example: http://www.ewa.org/site/PageServer?pagename=contest_grandprize Really? I only see one award for all his years in journalism . Where are the others? The Globe has a reputation of being one of the finest newspapers in the US. It's generally regarded as a slight step down from the NY Times and has held that position for at least the 40 years I've been following it. Then you should know how reputations can be altered. The Globe is a shell of what it once was. But compared to the other sources I've seen you use to justify your PED bloodhound hunt, I can see why you would say this. If you want a hack, yellow journalism newspaper go look at the Herald! This is nothing short of you completely slandering Hohler with ZERO evidence. If you call him a hack over and over some people will start buying it but not me. I prefer those pesky things called FACTS. If you guys don't like the message that is one thing but look at your responses. Baseless accusations with not the slightest shred of veracity. Posted by Boomerangsdotcom You champion baseless accusations with UR facts of suspicion. Hohler exemplifies the garbage readers are fed. For you to put him on some kind of a pedestal says everything about your low standards, which are quite apparent in your constant groundless PED accusations. 
    Posted by harness

    You saw 1. I noted and documented 3. YOU WERE WRONG. Don't argue with me. Just admit you got it wrong and move on. You have a BS excuse for everything.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think we have a good shot at getting Brett Jackson in the Theo compensation talks - it sounds like the Sox are asking for something big, and he is their top prospect.  If that happens, we have 3 MLB-ready prospects with similar profiles in 2010, plus Grady Sizemore available as a similar profile but injury risk on the FA market.  This all to fill one OF slot (two if Ells is traded) which still makes trading one of these top OF prospects likely.  This would be my plan (with thanks to Moon for the specific trade ideas)

    1) Get Brett Jackson as compensation for Theo.

    2) Send Ellsbury, Ranaudo and one of Jackson / Kalish / Reddick to the Braves for Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran and Eric O'Flaherty.

    3) Sign Ortiz to a 3-year deal with a cheap club buyout on the third year, 

    4) Sign Yu Darvish

    5) Sign Brandon Webb to a minor-league deal

    6) Sign Grady Sizemore to a 2 yr / $8M deal, with a $1M club buyout on the second year.  Let Sizemore and the two top OF prospects fight for the two available OF slots.

    7) Bring back Aviles, and teach Lowrie to play the outfield.

    8) Sign Joel Peralta for the bullpen

    9) Let Papelbon walk, along with all FA's except for Ortiz, and let MacDonald, Albers & Morales walk, or trade for minor-league prospects.

    10) Sign Tony Pena as manager (invaluable if Tek walks, and left with young catching tandem)

    Against RH pitchers our lineup would be:
    Crawford
    Pedroia
    Gonzalez
    Ortiz
    Youk
    Salty
    Kalish / Reddick / Jackson
    Sizemore
    Scutaro

    And LH Pitchers:
    Aviles
    Pedroia
    Lowrie
    Gonzalez
    Youk
    Ortiz
    Lavarnway
    Scutaro
    Crawford

    Note: my lineups are more concerned with keeping speedy guys together, and station to station guys together than they are l/r matchups. 

    Our rotation:
    Beckett
    Lester
    Hanson
    Buchholz
    Darvish

    Our bullpen:
    Lackey (he's got to pitch his way back into the rotation or wait for someone to get hurt)
    Aceves
    Doubront
    Bowden
    Peralta
    Jenks
    O'Flaherty
    Bard (closer)

    Possible callups:
    Teheran
    Webb
    Tazawa




     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from iamme17. Show iamme17's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    I think we have a good shot at getting Brett Jackson in the Theo compensation talks - it sounds like the Sox are asking for something big, and he is their top prospect.  If that happens, we have 3 MLB-ready prospects with similar profiles in 2010, plus Grady Sizemore available as a similar profile but injury risk on the FA market.  This all to fill one OF slot (two if Ells is traded) which still makes trading one of these top OF prospects likely.  This would be my plan (with thanks to Moon for the specific trade ideas) 1) Get Brett Jackson as compensation for Theo. 2) Send Ellsbury, Ranaudo and one of Jackson / Kalish / Reddick to the Braves for Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran and Eric O'Flaherty. 3) Sign Ortiz to a 3-year deal with a cheap club buyout on the third year,  4) Sign Yu Darvish 5) Sign Brandon Webb to a minor-league deal 6) Sign Grady Sizemore to a 2 yr / $8M deal, with a $1M club buyout on the second year.  Let Sizemore and the two top OF prospects fight for the two available OF slots. 7) Bring back Aviles, and teach Lowrie to play the outfield. 8) Sign Joel Peralta for the bullpen 9) Let Papelbon walk, along with all FA's except for Ortiz, and let MacDonald, Albers & Morales walk, or trade for minor-league prospects. 10) Sign Tony Pena as manager (invaluable if Tek walks, and left with young catching tandem) Against RH pitchers our lineup would be: Crawford Pedroia Gonzalez Ortiz Youk Salty Kalish / Reddick / Jackson Sizemore Scutaro And LH Pitchers: Aviles Pedroia Lowrie Gonzalez Youk Ortiz Lavarnway Scutaro Crawford Note: my lineups are more concerned with keeping speedy guys together, and station to station guys together than they are l/r matchups.  Our rotation: Beckett Lester Hanson Buchholz Darvish Our bullpen: Lackey (he's got to pitch his way back into the rotation or wait for someone to get hurt) Aceves Doubront Bowden Peralta Jenks O'Flaherty Bard (closer) Possible callups: Teheran Webb Tazawa
    Posted by slomag
    with their payroll stretched to the max they ain't getting into a bidding war for darvish which they'd lose bigtime and that  is a certainty
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : with their payroll stretched to the max they ain't getting into a bidding war for darvish which they'd lose bigtime and that  is a certainty
    Posted by iamme17


    There's no war with Japanese FA's - they bid secretly and the highest winner pays a posting fee for exclusive negotiating rights.  Most teams would probably expect the Sox to pass.  Salary-wise Darvish wil be in the $9-$10M range.  It would be smart to be in on Darvish even if they traded him right away - even small market teams would love his contract.  We could probably get Josh Johnson straight up in trade before Darvish even threw a pitch.



     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from iamme17. Show iamme17's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : There's no war with Japanese FA's - they bid secretly and the highest winner pays a posting fee for exclusive negotiating rights.  Most teams would probably expect the Sox to pass.  Salary-wise Darvish wil be in the $9-$10M range.  It would be smart to be in on Darvish even if they traded him right away - even small market teams would love his contract.  We could probably get Josh Johnson straight up in trade before Darvish even threw a pitch.
    Posted by slomag
    the posting fee is where the bidding war is gonna happen.MLB trade rumours has both the yankees and bluejays in deep for darvish.Henry ain't gonna win against the yankee monsters or the bluejays Rogers bllions
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : the posting fee is where the bidding war is gonna happen.MLB trade rumours has both the yankees and bluejays in deep for darvish.Henry ain't gonna win against the yankee monsters or the bluejays Rogers bllions
    Posted by iamme17
    Well maybe we should hope he won't. That same things were said about the NYY and NYM when teams were posting for Dice K.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    And LH Pitchers:
    Aviles
    Pedroia
    Lowrie
    Gonzalez
    Youk
    Ortiz
    Lavarnway
    Scutaro
    Crawford

    Slo, I'd move jed to 6th and put Youk up 3rd.
    I'd also consider moving Youk to the 2 slot and Pedey to the 3 or 4 slot, especially if we lose Papi.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    And LH Pitchers: Aviles Pedroia Lowrie Gonzalez Youk Ortiz Lavarnway Scutaro Crawford Slo, I'd move jed to 6th and put Youk up 3rd. I'd also consider moving Youk to the 2 slot and Pedey to the 3 or 4 slot, especially if we lose Papi.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I like Lowrie in the 3 spot because he probably can't come out of the game - if there's an injury to Pedroia or Scutaro, he has to fill in.  But if the opposing manager tries to turn him around by bringing in a righty, that pitcher is either one and done or he has to face Gonzalez and Ortiz.

    A lot of big bats are a little further down than I would like, but I think there are benefits to stringing speed together as much as possible - Ellsbury and Crawford's low stolen base totals may have been partly due to the fact that there was too often a slow runner in front of them.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : the posting fee is where the bidding war is gonna happen.MLB trade rumours has both the yankees and bluejays in deep for darvish.Henry ain't gonna win against the yankee monsters or the bluejays Rogers bllions
    Posted by iamme17


    It's hard to characterize a secret ballot as a war - they have a number in mind, I'm sure - maybe they will take that number and add to it whatever the money the Cubs send them for Theo.  I think the Sox could make more money by expanding the team's fan base than they spend on the posting fee.  Darvish is a rock star in Japan - it may be indirect, but my guess is there is money to be made amidst the ensuing media circus.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Darvish is a rock star in Japan
    Posted by slomag
    So was Dice-k how did that work out?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    My thoughts still float around quite a bit but I am coming to a couple of scenarios I'd be comfortable with. One would be offering David Ortiz arbitration. Unless he accepts offer him one year at his current salary. He walks so be it.

    The 'chemistry' issues have little to do with this but Papi's days as a "leader" are long gone. Ortiz over years now believes that name on the back of his shirt is as big as the one on the front. If he declines during the course of a contract and reverts to struggling against LH he will be a handful to deal with.

    My idea of a rotating DH would not have Youkilis playing a handful of games in the field. I'd try and get him at least 70 at 3B, 20 at 1B and 60 at DH. If you are going to have an effective DH by committee I think nobody spends to many days in a row at DH.

    By having lots of players move through DH you can keep more bats fresh without putting out the white flag line-ups that Francona used to keep guys somewhat sharp. 

    As for Elsbury, maybe it works but I don't get it. He was the RS MVP and all due respect to Gonzalez and Pedey it wasn't all that close. No player was more consistent bell to bell. He was remarkable in his attempts to carry the dying September team on his back. He is the only OF under their control today that is above average based on their 2011 performance. The only reason anybody here is not thinking go through two rounds of arbitration and prepare to make him a great offer if he is still playing like he did in 2011 is because we have an anchor contract with a platoon LF with a bad swing, poor baseball instincts and a reluctance to run now that he is the highest paid OFer in the sport. (second biggest contract for an OF in the history of the game).

    I am not proposing this at all but if the RS are all in to win NOW, why not trade Pedey? For a potential trading partner he has more years of control at fixed costs, his agent isn't Boras and that all probably means the chances of getting more in return is high.

    Sounds crazy huh? So does trading Ellsbury to me.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    My thoughts still float around quite a bit but I am coming to a couple of scenarios I'd be comfortable with. One would be offering David Ortiz arbitration. Unless he accepts offer him one year at his current salary. He walks so be it. The 'chemistry' issues have little to do with this but Papi's days as a "leader" are long gone. Ortiz over years now believes that name on the back of his shirt is as big as the one on the front. If he declines during the course of a contract and reverts to struggling against LH he will be a handful to deal with. My idea of a rotating DH would not have Youkilis playing a handful of games in the field. I'd try and get him at least 70 at 3B, 20 at 1B and 60 at DH. If you are going to have an effective DH by committee I think nobody spends to many days in a row at DH. By having lots of players move through DH you can keep more bats fresh without putting out the white flag line-ups that Francona used to keep guys somewhat sharp.  As for Elsbury, maybe it works but I don't get it. He was the RS MVP and all due respect to Gonzalez and Pedey it wasn't all that close. No player was more consistent bell to bell. He was remarkable in his attempts to carry the dying September team on his back. He is the only OF under their control today that is above average based on their 2011 performance. The only reason anybody here is not thinking go through two rounds of arbitration and prepare to make him a great offer if he is still playing like he did in 2011 is because we have an anchor contract with a platoon LF with a bad swing, poor baseball instincts and a reluctance to run now that he is the highest paid OFer in the sport. (second biggest contract for an OF in the history of the game). I am not proposing this at all but if the RS are all in to win NOW, why not trade Pedey? For a potential trading partner he has more years of control at fixed costs, his agent isn't Boras and that all probably means the chances of getting more in return is high. Sounds crazy huh? So does trading Ellsbury to me.
    Posted by fivekatz
    I could go for Pedey for King Felix straight up. We haven't had a pitcher like Felix Hernandez since Petey sailed off into the sunset.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : You saw 1. I noted and documented 3. YOU WERE WRONG. Don't argue with me.

    Who the FK R U? Moses?

     
    Just admit you got it wrong and move on.
     
    You said Hohler has several prestigious journalism awards.
    Where are they? Surely you don't mean those three. I had more prestigious awards than that when I went to camp as a kid.

    Show me the kind of awards I showed you. Surely a "fair" writer like Hohler has something more substancial to repute his life's work. 
    Or could it be you again scrape the bottom of the barrel to find anything to support such shoddy criteria?


    You have a BS excuse for everything.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    What's UR excuse for using this site for business purposes?
    This is a baseball forum, not a mecca for greedy/hungry merchants.

    Your "standards" for "prestigious journalism awards" replicate the shoddy hacks you use for links to cover your PED tracks. Your facts-of-suspicion white hood act is as shameless as your self-promotion.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Truce.

    PUH-LEEZE

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]If ever a thread had the right title, this one does. As fivekatz says, it is high time to ignore the fireworks about September and look at what we got for 2012.

    Easier said than done.


    As for September, my take is to blame it all on the two guys leaving, Francona and Epstein,

    See what I mean?



    and keep remembering that on August 27 this team was headed for 100 wins and a great postseason, we thought.  For five months they were a great team.  Had the pitching not collapsed, Moneyball might have been supplanted by Beerball as the smart approach to winning baseball.   I think both of them had a great run.  Francona's getting a break by avoiding what would surely have been samson agonistes in 2012.  Epstein is getting rewarded with an astounding five year deal with the Cubs ownership. 2012 is not different from any other year--management has to figure out who to hang onto and who not.  Pitching is the biggest problem.  Lackey probably needs to go, no doubt at significant cost. 

    How many takers will there be for a high-priced 14-game winner when healthy? And I'm betting he's damaged goods.



    Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz absolutely do not need to go and will be, if healthy (a big if), a great cornerstone for 2012.  Maybe Bard and Aceves both need to start, but, if that works, it means rebuilding the bullpen will be even harder.    Keep Papelbon if possible ($36M for three years?).  Ortiz has had a fantastic career in Boston and been, hands down, Theo's best acquisition.  But he's almost 36, has no versatility, is a lefty bat in a lineup that needs another righty bat, is talking like he wants to leave, and had a lousy September--1 dinger and 8 rbi's.  Offer him no more than $20M for two years and maybe just $16M.  If he walks, so be it.


    Thanks to the press, this may not even be in Boston's court any longer. And who replaces the lost season-long production from Papi?


    That said, while moving Youk to DH and backup 1B and 3B looks great, it also means the Sox won't have that great bat at 3B.  Aviles/Middleton or someone acquired will really be replacing Ortiz in the lineup, which probably means a drop-off. 

    You can say that again. I doubt Youk is ready for the DH role.


    Dump Tek and Wake.  Tek actually had a pretty good year, but in September he couldn't hit and couldn't throw anybody out except AGon, who plays for us.  The trend on Wake's knucklerin 2011 was that it became both more hittable and harder to catch.  In September his 7 "unearned" runs were more than any other Sox pitcher had for the entire season.  Harness will continue to blather, but the simple fact is that Wake's unreliable knuckler was the proximate cause of  21 runs in 24 innings.  His pursuit of the Sox wins record is now laughable. 

    What's laughable is your inability to recognize 1st half/2nd half unearned runs disparity against Wake, despite the fact his control was much better in the 2nd half. Blaming him for shoddy defense and inherited runs shows UR bias.


    Keep Ellsbury at almost any cost.   Fangraph rates him the best player in MLB.  He was certainly the best player the Sox had this year and far and away the best in September.   Thanks to Youk's big mouth in 2010, Jake thrived on being the outcast of poker flats in 2011.  Assume CC can only improve and that he, Pedey, Jake, AGon, and Youk are the cornerstones to the 2012 lineup.  Get a good righty bat for 3B or for the outfield.  If Lavarnway has any hope of being that guy, I would bring Tek back for one more year.  On that note, I was very impressed with Lavarnway's two starts in the final two games, one of which he personally took over and won.   Sign Scutaro for another yearand hope someone else (Iglesias?) will emerge to replace him by the end of the year. 

    Let's see. You want Middlebrook or Aviles at 3rd and Scut at short.
    Well, that should make the left side porous enough.




    Keep Lowrie and Aviles unless someone else better is obtainable.  For manager, almost anyone with experience will do provided a battery of psychology tests confirms he won't succumb to the ridiculous pressure on any Sox manager.  The preliminary tests should be conducted by georom and bosox1941, who will simply keep telling him that every Sox manager is required to win all 162 regular season games and that all losses are his fault and his alone. To summarize 2012:  forget September by blaming it on Theo and Terry; retain those parts of the April-August 2011 team headed for 100 wins who can reasonably be expected to help in 2012; key non-helpers are Lackey, Wake, Tek, and Ortiz. 
    Posted by maxbialystock

    Now UR talking sense!
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : So was Dice-k how did that work out?
    Posted by carnie


    Ask Softy. He'll give you a completely unbiased take on Dice.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    My thoughts still float around quite a bit but I am coming to a couple of scenarios I'd be comfortable with. One would be offering David Ortiz arbitration. Unless he accepts offer him one year at his current salary. He walks so be it. The 'chemistry' issues have little to do with this but Papi's days as a "leader" are long gone. Ortiz over years now believes that name on the back of his shirt is as big as the one on the front. If he declines during the course of a contract and reverts to struggling against LH he will be a handful to deal with. My idea of a rotating DH would not have Youkilis playing a handful of games in the field. I'd try and get him at least 70 at 3B, 20 at 1B and 60 at DH. If you are going to have an effective DH by committee I think nobody spends to many days in a row at DH. By having lots of players move through DH you can keep more bats fresh without putting out the white flag line-ups that Francona used to keep guys somewhat sharp.  As for Elsbury, maybe it works but I don't get it. He was the RS MVP and all due respect to Gonzalez and Pedey it wasn't all that close. No player was more consistent bell to bell. He was remarkable in his attempts to carry the dying September team on his back. He is the only OF under their control today that is above average based on their 2011 performance. The only reason anybody here is not thinking go through two rounds of arbitration and prepare to make him a great offer if he is still playing like he did in 2011 is because we have an anchor contract with a platoon LF with a bad swing, poor baseball instincts and a reluctance to run now that he is the highest paid OFer in the sport. (second biggest contract for an OF in the history of the game). Iam not proposing this at all but if the RS are all in to win NOW, why not trade Pedey? For a potential trading partner he has more years of control at fixed costs, his agent isn't Boras and that all probably means the chances of getting more in return is high. Sounds crazy huh? So does trading Ellsbury to me.
    Posted by fivekatz


    If the team expects to maintain a win-now window, Pedey better be looking through it.

    As for leadership qualities, Papi can do nothing but lead by example with his bat, and that's enough. I don't think folks realize what his absence will mean.
    This is one of the greatest and most important hitters in RedSox history. Ya just don't replace what he brings to the table. I do like the rotational DH. I advocated it back in the fall of 2010. But the team isn't currently set-up for it.


     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : If the team expects to maintain a win-now window, Pedey better be looking through it. As for leadership qualities, Papi can do nothing but lead by example with his bat, and that's enough. I don't think folks realize what his absence will mean. This is one of the greatest and most important hitters in RedSox history. Ya just don't replace what he brings to the table. I do like the rotational DH. I advocated it back in the fall of 2010. But the team isn't currently set-up for it.
    Posted by harness
    Let me clarify on the leadership comment Harness. If David Ortiz is signed for multiple years and fades, when it happens it will be a bigger issue to work through than just his historic production having faded away. I don't think his impact either way is much of a factor long as everything is happy with Big papi.

    David will not platoon quietly. He will not ride the bench with any grace at all. This will not be Mike Lowell understanding why the RS aren't playing him but wishing they'd trade him. It will be Ortiz demanding a trade, enrolling teammates if he can and talking to every mediot in the English and Spanish speaking world that will listen. It will be about respect, it will be nasty. We got a few mini snap shots in 2009 and 2010 when he was scuffling. Multi-years are not without risk any more than his subtraction is.

    I can just as easily see an argument for keeping him by the way. I was far from in a huge majority when I said after last year that picking up a one year $12.5M option for him was a no brainer. I get his historic value and just what his subtraction could mean. But I fear projection for aging players based on recent history and walk years in general when they are outliers are scary.

    But I disagree about the impact of rotational DH for this team. I certainly get that there may be some drop off. But just like the offensive drop off from VMart to the catching tandem of 2011 was not as dramatic as many expected. Right off the top if 25 games at DH for A-Gon do what I think they could his productivity, plus a year further removed from the shoulder injury that could make up some drop off.

    Getting a 158 game season out of Youk the same. Slotting a guy who can hit LH pitching and can play multiple positions (like Lowrie) in a number of those PAs, keeping the bench sharper by using PAs at DH instead of scratching key guys and the deeper bench may mitigate much of the loss.

    I don't think replacing Papelbon is any easier than replacing Ortiz will be. I am more inclined to bet on 3 years of Papelbon than 2 years of Ortiz though arguments to the contrary are legitimate and with basis, IMO so is my take. It is projection and as we have seen that is not science at all.



     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Katz, realistically, I doubt the market will be there for a big, multi-year deal for Papi. And I believe the Sox will offer a competitive market package.

    This likely means two years. The way he adjusted to hitting LH pitching this year tells me he hasn't lost anything. In fact, his adjustments make it probably he won't have prolonged early-season hitting woes.

    I really don't see regression in a two-year deal as a big factor. I do see replacing his production as problematic. Keep in mind, when you choose to DH Youk, you lose Youk's bat at 3rd. Any shifting of AGONE will result in weaker production somewhere.

    The Sox replaced VMART'S bat with two others. It wasn't in the catcher position, beyond power numbers. The way the team is now constructed, it's far more difficult to replace a bat like Papi's. Especially if Jake doesn't repeat his heroics.

    At this point, Papi may not wish to return, and who could blame him. I've made it a point to hammer the garbage from the press to illuminate the consequences for their actions.

    A line-up w/o Papi means Youk had better stay healthy as hell. Otherwise, you are looking at Bonds-like intentional walk numbers to AGONE.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Katz , realistically, I doubt the market will be there for a big, multi-year deal for Papi. And I believe the Sox will offer a competitive market package . This likely means two years. The way he adjusted to hitting LH pitching this year tells me he hasn't lost anything. In fact, his adjustments make it probably he won't have prolonged early-season hitting woes. I really don't see regression in a two-year deal as a big factor. I do see replacing his production as problematic. Keep in mind, when you choose to DH Youk, you lose Youk's bat at 3rd. Any shifting of AGONE will result in weaker production somewhere . The Sox replaced VMART'S bat with two others. It wasn't in the catcher position, beyond power numbers. The way the team is now constructed, it's far more difficult to replace a bat like Papi's. Especially if Jake doesn't repeat his heroics. At this point, Papi may not wish to return, and who could blame him. I've made it a point to hammer the garbage from the press to illuminate the consequences for their actions. A line-up w/o Papi means Youk had better stay healthy as hell. Otherwise, you are looking at Bonds-like intentional walk numbers to AGONE.
    Posted by harness
    Keep in mind that lost production of Youk at third mitigates somewhat by getting him off the field for 80 games and hopefully getting about 30 more than usual. Ortiz has many pluses, I have been a proponent of those as long as most posters. But as an athletically ungifted DH on a team with GG quality 1B he does cause a short bench and a dead roster spot in interleague road games.

    But I hope you are right about the market for Ortiz and how that process would work. Players and their agents are seldom very grounded about their value. And this is a player who has heard for years now that he is a legend and the franchise. Just how that process goes when the RS put a 2 year $18M or so offer in front of Ortiz is yet to be seen.

    I agree that the extended temper tantrum about the collapse is not going help with Ortiz in negotiations and while he has gone relatively unscathed in the current feeding frenzy I am sure it will carry weight with Papelbon as well.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Keep in mind that lost production of Youk at third mitigates somewhat by getting him off the field for 80 games and hopefully getting about 30 more than usual.

    True, but I don't see Youk as a liability at 3rd if he comes into ST healthier. I don't see him as a DH or acclimating himself to such in 2012.


    Ortiz has many pluses, I have been a proponent of those as long as most posters. But as an athletically ungifted DH on a team with GG quality 1B he does cause a short bench and a dead roster spot in interleague road games.

    Yes, he does. This a is a drawback, but few packages are perfect.
    I suppose you have to weigh his overall production against however many games are played in N.L. parks to make an honest evaluation.


    But I hope you are right about the market for Ortiz and how that process would work. Players and their agents are seldom very grounded about their value.

    What players/agents want is not relevant to what the open market will dictate.


    And this is a player who has heard for years now that he is a legend and the franchise. Just how that process goes when the RS put a 2 year $18M or so offer in front of Ortiz is yet to be seen.

    He has been a Boston legend. It's not just a matter of his perception.
    But outside of Boston, he's a DH with a good bat, a generally good disposition with a strong will to win.

    I agree that the extended temper tantrum about the collapse is not going help with Ortiz in negotiations and while he has gone relatively unscathed in the current feeding frenzy I am sure it will carry weight with Papelbon as well.
    Posted by fivekatz

    Let's hope much of this blows over. What I don't understand is how anybody can see this media circus as "fair". Reminds me of the series, THE FUGITIVE. It's not enough the guy lost his wife. Now, he has to deal with a faulty murder wrap and a trip to the death chamber...
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Katz, yes that was great that you pointed out all the good performances we had.  There is a lot to build on here.  I hope we get a really bright manager who knows the ropes.  I Jim Leyland type here would really make a change in the look of our team.
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share