A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from GhostofTito. Show GhostofTito's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Harness and horses. Humm, I always think of the part under the horses tail when I read Harness. A true board bully.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Soon, teams will begin taking or leaving options and the FA list will grow. With so many of our own decisions to be made, it's hard to sort it all out. You have to think the "flow chart" begins with the Paps and Pap decisions and goes from there. The comp draft picks are alluring, but it's hard to imagine a team without both of these guys. However, I still feel one will walk. With only about $30M or so to spend and so many positions to fill, we will probably make a trade or two and trust a position or two to some of our top prospects or players (Lava, Kalish/Reddick, Iggy/Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Doubront/Tazawa/Weiland/Ranaudo).
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    The more I think about the needs of 2012. I come to the conclusion that Papelbon with Bard at the ready, simply is a luxary more so than a need. The moneys they'd have to spend on him, given the state of the rotation IMHO would be better served on the aquistion of a proven veteran starter...They can always aquire an arm for the pen if Bard struggles in June or July...I think they simply offer him arbitration and then move on and take the draft compensation.

    Ortiz might be another that falls into the same class. Replacing his bat in the 5 hole given what's is availble might be tough to do but it's doable if they find a big bat to play RF. That said, I could see them resigning him if they can get him for 10M to 12M per on no more than a two year deal and then look at adding complimentary players to platoon in right (Ross?)...

    I just don't see them spending 20M to 25M to reup both with the needs we have...especially if your 28M number is close to accurate...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon,

    Solid breakdown, if the assumption is that the Sox will try to stay below the luxary threshold to open the season. Which we don't know to be true or false? Though Henry has stated in the past that, that is the budgeted goal each year. This year in 2011 the Competitive Balance Limit was set at 178M. Is it safe to assume that it will remain the same in 2012 or does it continue to increase by a certain percentage each year?...

    I'm basing my assumption on the idea that we will not dramatically increase our budget payroll from 2011 when you consider how much we spent on CC, Gonzo and the extension of Buch kicking in in 2012. We may spend even less, but my guess is weh have about $28-35M to spend (not counting any of our options or free agents).

    Based on the info I took from the website below. The limit has increased about 7M to 8M every year starting in 2007...Do you know if that is also true this year? 8M buys a lot of groceries....if it is then the Competitive Balance limit in 2012 would fall somewhere around 186M? Which would allow the sox more flexibility this year and allow them to perhaps use Matsusaka's moneys that are coming off the books in 2013 as an example this year knowing that they have "cap room moving forward?

    We also have to count the player pension fund into the formula. I think it's about $10-11M/yr.

    Yes, we lose Dice-K's $8.5M average yearly salary off the books next winter as well as Jenks ($6M), and we have options on Youk ($13M or $1M buyout), but we may have several holes to fill that $15M may not be enough.

    To answer your question regarding Gonzalez, his number does count against this years
     "cap"....

    Yes, but it will really boost our luxury tax budget this year.

    Moon,

    The more I think about the needs of 2012. I come to the conclusion that Papelbon with Bard at the ready, simply is a luxary more so than a need. The moneys they'd have to spend on him, given the state of the rotation IMHO would be better served on the aquistion of a proven veteran starter...They can always aquire an arm for the pen if Bard struggles in June or July...I think they simply offer him arbitration and then move on and take the draft compensation. 

    I have held this position for about a year, but recently have begun to have second thoughts. While I don't think any closer, except Mo is worth $13M+ a year (let alone in a 3-5 year deal), I hesitate to weaken our staff further by letting him walk. I do think there are several cheaper options out there that could work out nicely, since we could probably get 2-3 at the same cost of Paps.

    Ortiz might be another that falls into the same class. Replacing his bat in the 5 hole given what's is availble might be tough to do but it's doable if they find a big bat to play RF. That said, I could see them resigning him if they can get him for 10M to 12M per on no more than a two year deal and then look at adding complimentary players to platoon in right (Ross?)...

    I'm torn on this one too. I'd love to see Papi retire here, but with Youk breaking down and Lava knocking on the door, $10-12M seems like too much. I think teams like Toronto, Baltimore and maybe even TB may bid high for twp reasons:
    1) To gain Papi's bat
    2) To take Papi's bat away from their closest competitor for the playoffs.

    I just don't see them spending 20M to 25M to reup both with the needs we have...especially if your 28M number is close to accurate..

    That has been my point all along. I said it when we signed CC. Our budget would be severely restricted, and that we'd have to make tough choices every year for 6 more years. I also started the "go light" at what position thread to highlight the budget situation we are in, and to try and get people to look at the whole picture, not just one slot at a time. Some people seem to think we can keep all our FAs and sign guys like CJ, Buehrle, Cuddyer, and R. Hernandez. Yeah, Henry probably could, but it is not 'realistic" he will.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The games Napoli has caught, the Cards average 1.5 runs. Got that? Must be because he can't call a game, right? Small sample, so it's luck, right? Duh

    Final numbers: (IP  H  ER  BB)

    G1) 8  6  3  6
    G2) 9  6  1  4
    G4) 9  2  0  3
    G5) 9  7  1  9
    g6)10 13 8  7
    G7) 8  7  6  6 

    Small sample size judgements are dumb, but since you brought it up, take a look at the BB per game!  6, 4, 3, 9, 7, 6 !

    Totals: 
    53 Inn 19 ER  3.23 ERA
    41 H
    35 BB
    1.453 WHIP

    Small sample the last 2 Napoli starts: 
    IP 18  
    H  20  
    ER 14
    BB 13
    ERA 6.33
    WHIP 1.50

    Guys, small sample sizes are not good talking points. As you can see with Naploi's WS numbers, you can twist them to support either side of the argument. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from GhostofTito. Show GhostofTito's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moono, you must brighten a room when you leave it.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]The games Napoli has caught, the Cards average 1.5 runs. Got that? Must be because he can't call a game, right? Small sample, so it's luck, right? Duh Final numbers: (IP  H  ER  BB) G1) 8  6  3  6 G2) 9  6  1  4 G4) 9  2  0  3 G5) 9  7  1  9 g6)10 13 8  7 G7) 8  7  6  6  Small sample size judgements are dumb, but since you brought it up, take a look at the BB per game!  6, 4, 3, 9, 7, 6 ! Totals:  53 Inn 19 ER  3.23 ERA 41 H 35 BB 1.453 WHIP Small sample the last 2 Napoli starts:  IP 18   H  20   ER 14 BB 13 ERA 6.33 WHIP 1.50 Guys, small sample sizes are not good talking points. As you can see with Naploi's WS numbers, you can twist them to support either side of the argument. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    moon could you reduce the font size so I can read it?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Moono, you must brighten a room when you leave it.
    Posted by GhostofTito[/QUOTE]


    ...and as you enter, it darkens.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : moon could you reduce the font size so I can read it?
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]

    Sorry, it was the font from the harness post that I pasted...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    See ya, Harness. 

    Best of winnings, I know it's not luck.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    ...about as lucky as CERA.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom. Show proftom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Simple off season this eyar. 

    Move Yuk to DH. Rote SS and 3B until younger farm player emerges. LF and CF remain the same. RF is platoon until homegrown solution steps up. C Salty, 1B Salty, Pedria 2B. 

    SP Becket, Lestr, Buch, Miller, farm type guy. Pen remains the same philopsphy. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]...about as lucky as CERA.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I sense the horse twitchings are getting more frequent...Laughing
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Since I think Staring pitcher is our number one priority, I'll now provide a list of some possible trade possibilties out there. Some are salary dumps, some are quality targets, and some are just plain wishful thinking that rae probably close to a zero chance of prying loose from their team.

    Here's the AL first:

    Angels:
    J. Weaver: 12:$14M, 13:$16M, 14:$16M, 15:$18M, 16:$20M
    E. Santana: 12:$11.2M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
    D. Haren:  12:$12.75M, 13:$15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout)

    Athletics:
    G. Gonzalez: 4 arbs years left

    Blue Jays:
    R. Romero: 12:$5M, 13:$7.5M, 14:$7.5M, 15:$7.5M, 16:$13.1M club option ($0.6M buyout)
    H. Alvarez: pre-arb

    Indians:
    Masterson: 3 arbs left
    Jimenez: 12:$4.2M, 13:$5.75M club option ($1M buyout), 14:$8M club option ($1M buyout)
    Tomlin: pre-arb
    Carmona: 12:$7M club option, 13:$9M club option, 14:$12M club option

    Mariners:
    Hernandez: 12:$18.5M, 13:$19.5M, 14:$20M
    Pineda: Pre-arb.

    Orioles:
    J. Guthrie: 1 arb left


    Rangers:
    Lewis: 12:$3.25M club option ($0.25M buyout), then FA
    Holland: pre-arb
    Harrison: pre-arb
    Ogando: pre-arb

    Rays:
    Shields: 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    Price: 12:$1.5M, then 3 arbs left.
    Niemann: 3 arbs left
    Hellickson: 4 arbs left
    A. Cobb: pre-arb
    W. Davis: 12:$1.5M, 13:$2.8M, 14:$4.8M, 15:$7M club option, 16:$8M club option, 17:$10M club option ($2.5M buyout)
    Moore: pre-arb

    Royals:
    Paulino: 3 arbs left

    Tigers:
    Verlander: 12:$20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M
    Fister: pre-arb (then 3 arb yrs)

    Twins:
    S. Baker: 12:$6.5M, 13:$9.25M club option
    Pavano: 12:$8.5M

    White Sox:
    Danks: 1 arb left
    Floyd: 12:$7M, 13:$9.5M club option
    Humber: pre-arb

    Yankees:
    Sabathia: (if no opt out) 10-15:$23M annually
    Nova: pre-arb
    Hughes: 2 arbs left
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Since I think Staring pitcher is our number one priority, I'll now provide a list of some possible trade possibilties out there. Some are salary dumps, some are quality targets, and some are just plain wishful thinking that are probably close to a zero chance of prying loose from their team.

    Here's the AL first:

    Angels:
    J. Weaver: 12:$14M, 13:$16M, 14:$16M, 15:$18M, 16:$20M
    E. Santana: 12:$11.2M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
    D. Haren:  12:$12.75M, 13:$15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout)

    Athletics:
    G. Gonzalez: 4 arbs years left

    Blue Jays:
    R. Romero: 12:$5M, 13:$7.5M, 14:$7.5M, 15:$7.5M, 16:$13.1M club option ($0.6M buyout)
    H. Alvarez: pre-arb

    Indians:
    Masterson: 3 arbs left
    Jimenez: 12:$4.2M, 13:$5.75M club option ($1M buyout), 14:$8M club option ($1M buyout)
    Tomlin: pre-arb
    Carmona: 12:$7M club option, 13:$9M club option, 14:$12M club option

    Mariners:
    Hernandez: 12:$18.5M, 13:$19.5M, 14:$20M
    Pineda: Pre-arb.

    Orioles:
    J. Guthrie: 1 arb left


    Rangers:
    Lewis: 12:$3.25M club option ($0.25M buyout), then FA
    Holland: pre-arb
    Harrison: pre-arb
    Ogando: pre-arb

    Rays:
    Shields: 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    Price: 12:$1.5M, then 3 arbs left.
    Niemann: 3 arbs left
    Hellickson: 4 arbs left
    A. Cobb: pre-arb
    W. Davis: 12:$1.5M, 13:$2.8M, 14:$4.8M, 15:$7M club option, 16:$8M club option, 17:$10M club option ($2.5M buyout)
    Moore: pre-arb

    Royals:
    Paulino: 3 arbs left

    Tigers:
    Verlander: 12:$20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M
    Fister: pre-arb (then 3 arb yrs)

    Twins:
    S. Baker: 12:$6.5M, 13:$9.25M club option
    Pavano: 12:$8.5M

    White Sox:
    Danks: 1 arb left
    Floyd: 12:$7M, 13:$9.5M club option
    Humber: pre-arb

    Yankees:
    Sabathia: (if no opt out) 10-15:$23M annually
    Nova: pre-arb
    Hughes: 2 arbs left

    The NL:

    Astros:
    Rodriguez: 12:$10M, 13:$13M, 14:$13M club option ($2.5M buyout)
    B. Norris: pre-arb, then 3 arbs
    B. Myers: 12:$11M, 13:$10M club option ($3M buyout)

    Brewers:
    Gallardo: 12:$5.5M, 13:$7.75M, 14:$11.25M, 15:$13M club option ($0.6M buyout)
    Greinke: 12:$13.5M
    Marcum: 1 arb
    R. Wolf: 12:$9.5M, 13:$10M club option ($1.5M buyout)
    Estrada: pre-arb

    Braves:
    Hanson: 4 arb years
    Jurrjens: 2 arb years
    Beachy: pre-arb
    T.Hudson: 12:$9M, 13:$9M club option ($1M buyout)

    Cardinals:
    Carpenter: 12:$15M club option ($1M buyout)
    Wainwright: 12:$9M club option, 13:$12M club option
    J. Garcia: 12:$3.25M, 13:$5.75M, 14:$7.75M, 15:$9.25M, 16:$11.5M club option ($0.5M buyout), 17:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout)
    K. Lohse: 12:$11.875M
    McClellan: 2 arbs

    Cubs:
    M. Garza: 2 arbs (made about $6M in 2011)
    Dempster: 12:$14M player option

    Diamondbacks:
    Kennedy: 4 arbs
    D.Hudson: pre-arb
    Saunders: 1 arb
    Collmenter: pre-arb

    Dodgers:
    Kershaw: 3 arbs
    Billingsley: 12:$9M, 13:$11M, 14:$12M, 15:$14M club option ($3M buyout)
    T. Lilly: 12:$10.5M, 13:$12M
    R. De La Rosa: pre-arb

    Giants:
    Cain: 12: $15.33M
    Bumgarner: pre-arb then 4 arbs
    Lincecum: 2 arbs (made $14M in '11)
    Vogelsong: 1 arb
    J. Sanchez: 1 arb

    Marlins:
    Johnson: 12:$13.75M, 13:$13.75M
    A.Sanchez: 1 arb left

    Mets:
    Santana: 12:$24M, 13:$25.5M, 14:$25M club option ($5.5M buyout)
    Niese: pre-arb then 3 arbs
    Dickey: 12:$4.25M, 13:$5M club option ($0.3M buyout)

    Nationals:
    Straburg: 12:$3M
    Zimmerman: 4 arbs
    Lannan: 2 arbs
    Detwiler: pre-arb

    Padres:
    M. Latos: pre-arb
    Luebke: pre-arb
    Stauffer: 2 arbs
    Harang: 12:$5M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)

    Phillies:
    Halladay: 12:$20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M option
    C. Lee: 12:$21.5M, 13:$25M, 14:$25M, 15:$25M, 16:$27.5M club option ($12.5M buyout)
    Hamels: 1 arb
    Worley: pre-arb
    Kendrick: 3 arbs

    Pirates:
    Maholm: 12:$9.75M club option ($0.75M buyout)
    Morton: 3 arbs
    McDonald: pre-arb then 3 arbs


    Reds:
    Cuerto: 12:$5.4M, 13:$7.4M, 14:$10M, 15:$10M club option ($0.8M buyout)
    Leake: pre-arb then 3 arbs
    Bailey: 3 arbs

    Rockies:
    Chacin: pre-arb then 3 arbs
    Nicasio: pre-arb
    de la Rosa: 12:$10M, 13:$11M player option ($1M buyout) which, if exercised by De La Rosa, gives club $11M club option for 2014
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I find it very interesting that the last 2 catchers who hit over 30 HR in AAA ( besides Lavarnway ) were Arencibio of Toronto who hit 23 HR last year in his rookie year and Mike Napoli. The last guy before those 2 was in 1995.  And Lavarnway had better overall minor league numbers than both of them offensively. No matter how you look at Lavarnway from an offensive perspective, he looks to be a potential future stud. And as a Yale guy I just think it is likely he will be fine from a game management perspective quite soon. If we are going to be enthusiastic about any player from the Redsox farm, it should be Lavarnway IMO. I know Bogaerts is down there with a huge HR percentage playing age advanced. There are other great prospects down there but Lavarnway has consistently produced offensively and by all accounts is repaidly improving defensively.  Imagine if he actually continues to develop as he has so far. He would be one of the top catchers in the game. And we would have him available for 6 years if we chose to. No way I would trade this guy at this time.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I agree with you Boom, but I think The CERA people would have a nervous breakdown at best even though he probably has an IQ in the high 130's.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Lavarnway may turn into a good CERA catcher, but it would be close to a miracle if he did it in 2012. Usually a catcher needs several years to become expeienced enough to have a positive influence on the pitcher's game. VTek was about 27-28 when he started to show his skills in these areas. I don't want to give up on Lava. I'm close to giving up on Salty, but think he should be here in 2012, especially since he still has one option left.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I wouldn't be surprised if Lavarnway's IQ was more like 160. To be in the top 1/10th of 1% of high school seniors academically would be more in that area IMO. If there is a deviation from the norm in rookie catcher CERA, Lavarnway might be likely to be that guy. Unfortunately, another variable is probably the number of games caught, which would not be helpful in Lavarnway's projection.  One thing I am convinced of though is that Lavarnway is the guy who is most likely to help us from the farm in 2012. I think Moon's overview shows something which many appear to have not noticed. There are needs at starting pitching and other areas and there is a limited budget available both this year and next. Ideally, the Sox need to get some low cost help from the farm. Long term I think the Sox are probably looking quite good at catcher. They now have some real blue chip prospects at catcher in Ibarra and Swihart and Lavarnway looks to be ready now. My biggest concern though is that I doubt seriously that Lavarnway can take on a starting catcher's work load.   
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I'm with you boom. I think we will depend on some kids in 2012. It makes a lot of sense that Lava be one of them. To me, the Papi decision is the key. I'm not saying Lava can't be a 60 game catcher (and some more at DH) in 2012 for the Sox, but I just do not think it is the right thing to do to a rookie. Playing in Boston as we contend for a ring puts a lot of pressure on a catcher... not so much for a DH (even though he'd be filling in Papi's shoes).
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    By my figures, after taking the Scutty option, we now have about $22-25M to spend on...

    SP4
    SP5
    Closer
    Set-up
    DH

    perhaps...
    back-up C
    RH'd RF'er
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]See ya, Harness.  Best of winnings, I know it's not luck.
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]
    If the main source of revenue is betting and the industry is rampant with PED use itself I'm not so sure skill is that big a factor. It is probably rampant with insider information and probably even organized crime IMO.

    The odds of winning in Las Vegas are like 30%. I bet the average joe on the street without true insider information the chances of winning in the "horses" is similar. The house has a take and the house is pretty big. They have a lot of costs involved to support, plus the need to make a profit.

    I will admit that I know little about the subject as I've never bet on a horse even once but I would bet that a lot of horse racing is rigged. Especially harness horse racing ( the kind where the guy rides behind the horse as I understand it ).

    This has nothing to do with my recent disagreements with harness. I'm not disparaging him here. I have no idea what his role is in the process. He could be a jockey for all I know.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I wouldn't be surprised if Lavarnway's IQ was more like 160. To be in the top 1/10th of 1% of high school seniors academically would be more in that area IMO. If there is a deviation from the norm in rookie catcher CERA, Lavarnway might be likely to be that guy. Unfortunately, another variable is probably the number of games caught, which would not be helpful in Lavarnway's projection. 

    One thing I am convinced of though is that Lavarnway is the guy who is most likely to help us from the farm in 2012. I think Moon's overview shows something which many appear to have not noticed. There are needs at starting pitching and other areas and there is a limited budget available both this year and next. Ideally, the Sox need to get some low cost help from the farm.

    Long term I think the Sox are probably looking quite good at catcher. They now have some real blue chip prospects at catcher in Ibarra and Swihart and Lavarnway looks to be ready now. My biggest concern though is that I doubt seriously that Lavarnway can take on a starting catcher's work load.   
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Glad to see they picked up Scutaro's option. That was a good decision IMO.

    Someone else is highly likely to go from the Papi / Papelbon combo and I think Lucchino is possibly the main decision maker now. That worries me. 

    We just witnessed the end result of a power struggle at the GM / President's positions. Luchinno won by waiting it out until Theo just left but I would have preferred to keep Theo over Luchinno any day. Theo has been fighting that battle for years, to the team's detriment.

    We will miss Papelbon and Papi right! Both probably both have to go. I particularly will miss Papelbon as being a successful closer in this market is huge.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Since I think Staring pitcher is our number one priority, I'll now provide a list of some possible trade possibilties out there. Some are salary dumps, some are quality targets, and some are just plain wishful thinking that are probably close to a zero chance of prying loose from their team. Here's the AL first: Angels: J. Weaver:  12 :$14M, 13 :$16M, 14 :$16M, 15 :$18M, 16 :$20M E. Santana:  12 :$11.2M, 13 :$13M club option ($1M buyout) D. Haren:   12 :$12.75M, 13 :$15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout) Athletics: G. Gonzalez: 4 arbs years left Blue Jays: R. Romero:  12 :$5M, 13 :$7.5M, 14 :$7.5M, 15 :$7.5M, 16 :$13.1M club option ($0.6M buyout) H. Alvarez: pre-arb Indians: Masterson: 3 arbs left Jimenez:  12 :$4.2M, 13 :$5.75M club option ($1M buyout), 14 :$8M club option ($1M buyout) Tomlin: pre-arb Carmona:  12 :$7M club option, 13 :$9M club option, 14 :$12M club option Mariners: Hernandez:  12 :$18.5M, 13 :$19.5M, 14 :$20M Pineda: Pre-arb. Orioles: J. Guthrie: 1 arb left Rangers: Lewis:  12 :$3.25M club option ($0.25M buyout), then FA Holland: pre-arb Harrison: pre-arb Ogando: pre-arb Rays: Shields:  12 :$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13 :$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14 :$12M club option ($1M buyout) Price:  12 :$1.5M, then 3 arbs left. Niemann: 3 arbs left Hellickson: 4 arbs left A. Cobb: pre-arb W. Davis:  12 :$1.5M, 13 :$2.8M, 14 :$4.8M, 15 :$7M club option, 16 :$8M club option, 17 :$10M club option ($2.5M buyout) Moore: pre-arb Royals: Paulino: 3 arbs left Tigers: Verlander:  12 :$20M, 13 :$20M, 14 :$20M Fister: pre-arb (then 3 arb yrs) Twins: S. Baker:  12 :$6.5M, 13 :$9.25M club option Pavano:  12 :$8.5M White Sox: Danks: 1 arb left Floyd:  12 :$7M, 13 :$9.5M club option Humber: pre-arb Yankees: Sabathia: (if no opt out)  10-15 :$23M annually Nova: pre-arb Hughes: 2 arbs left The NL: Astros: Rodriguez: 12 :$10M,   13 :$13M,   14 :$13M club option ($2.5M buyout) B. Norris: pre-arb, then 3 arbs B. Myers: 12 :$11M,   13 :$10M club option ($3M buyout) Brewers: Gallardo: 12 :$5.5M,   13 :$7.75M,   14 :$11.25M,   15 :$13M club option ($0.6M buyout) Greinke: 12 :$13.5M Marcum: 1 arb R. Wolf: 12 :$9.5M,   13 :$10M club option ($1.5M buyout) Estrada: pre-arb Braves: Hanson: 4 arb years Jurrjens: 2 arb years Beachy: pre-arb T.Hudson: 12 :$9M,   13 :$9M club option ($1M buyout) Cardinals: Carpenter: 12 :$15M club option ($1M buyout) Wainwright: 12 :$9M club option,   13 :$12M club option J. Garcia: 12 :$3.25M,   13 :$5.75M,   14 :$7.75M,   15 :$9.25M,   16 :$11.5M club option ($0.5M buyout),   17 :$12M club option ($0.5M buyout) K. Lohse: 12 :$11.875M McClellan: 2 arbs Cubs: M. Garza: 2 arbs (made about $6M in 2011) Dempster: 12 :$14M player option Diamondbacks: Kennedy: 4 arbs D.Hudson: pre-arb Saunders: 1 arb Collmenter: pre-arb Dodgers: Kershaw: 3 arbs Billingsley: 12 :$9M,   13 :$11M,   14 :$12M,   15 :$14M club option ($3M buyout) T. Lilly: 12 :$10.5M,   13 :$12M R. De La Rosa: pre-arb Giants: Cain: 12: $15.33M Bumgarner: pre-arb then 4 arbs Lincecum: 2 arbs (made $14M in '11) Vogelsong: 1 arb J. Sanchez: 1 arb Marlins: Johnson: 12 :$13.75M,   13 :$13.75M A.Sanchez: 1 arb left Mets: Santana: 12 :$24M,   13 :$25.5M,   14 :$25M club option ($5.5M buyout) Niese: pre-arb then 3 arbs Dickey: 12 :$4.25M,   13 :$5M club option ($0.3M buyout) Nationals: Straburg: 12 :$3M Zimmerman: 4 arbs Lannan: 2 arbs Detwiler: pre-arb Padres: M. Latos: pre-arb Luebke: pre-arb Stauffer: 2 arbs Harang: 12 :$5M mutual option ($0.5M buyout) Phillies: Halladay: 12 :$20M,   13 :$20M,   14 :$20M option C. Lee: 12 :$21.5M,   13 :$25M,   14 :$25M,   15 :$25M,   16 :$27.5M club option ($12.5M buyout) Hamels: 1 arb Worley: pre-arb Kendrick: 3 arbs Pirates: Maholm: 12 :$9.75M club option ($0.75M buyout) Morton: 3 arbs McDonald: pre-arb then 3 arbs Reds: Cuerto: 12 :$5.4M,   13 :$7.4M,   14 :$10M,   15 :$10M club option ($0.8M buyout) Leake: pre-arb then 3 arbs Bailey: 3 arbs Rockies: Chacin: pre-arb then 3 arbs Nicasio: pre-arb de la Rosa: 12 :$10M,   13 :$11M player option ($1M buyout) which, if exercised by De La Rosa, gives club $11M club option for 2014
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I think Garza would be a good fit but will the Cubs go into full rebuild mode? Theo could pick up some valuable farm hands in that deal though with 2 years of controllability available in Garza.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]...about as lucky as CERA.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Here is my view on CERA, or more precisely, a catchers relevance. I think teamwork is the key, but the input may come from the pitcher or the catcher. The most important thing is that they function as one unit, almost as one mind. At times the pitcher may be the leader and other times the catcher. It is an art, more than a science that numbers can explain. The catcher-pitcher tandem is always a two way street and is most successful when both sides learn and communicate together, taking the best strategic ideas from each player.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, you responded to my 7:44 post at 6:57. That is pretty fast!

    i guess the system has delays sometimes. 

    Something is messed up today. Even some original 1st posts are now moved to the second or third posts.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    That is a key comment. When we look at the numbers, how are we going to bring back either Papelbon or Ortiz? If we do bring back either, we may need guys from the farm to step up or have to sign more guys like Bedard to incentive laden deals rather than sign blue chip talent for starting pitching.

    We don't know if Henry has OK'd a budget increase this season, but if he hasn't, signing Papi and Paps means that's about it. Every other move will have to be budget equal. I mentioned several times that we may not be able to keep Papi and Paps, but many did not want to believe it.

    At the time of the CC signing, I warned that his contract would "cripple" our options for years to come. This is the first year we may experience the tough choices created by signing a .780 career OPS guy to $20M a year. Just imagine the choices we'd have now with $42-45M instead of $22-25M.

    One or both of them are probably gone. We are going to have to do it if we want to keep under the luxury tax limit. I've got to believe we need to sign or trade for at least one starting pitcher. 

    A trade seems most likely and maybe less financially hurtful.

    It seems like we can replace both Papelbon and Ortiz quite well with internal options, but of course we will probably get a dip in performance from their slots on the team. That move, though, would enable us to supplement the team in areas of more intense need, plus give us the picks which Ortiz and Papelbon probably represent. We don't even know for sure if either would decline arbitration. Sometimes the winter doesn't go as planned. 

    Well, if they accept arb, then at least it will only be a 1 year risk.

    We had no choice but to pick up Scutaro's option since we couldn't afford to replace him. My guess is that Wheeler is gone also. We might end up missing him before we are through. I hope they do bring him back but it's got to be done by tomorrow right, or he is open for bidding by others.

    I think $3M is kinda high for Wheeler.

    When's Miller's $3M option deadline?
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share