A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    But when you start looking at body types, you could put Migel Cabrera, CC Sabathia and list of HOFers on your list.
    Posted by fivekatz


    LOL good point.  And I'm looking forward to watching those two corpulent superstars face each other tonight.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Crawford's anxiousness to prove his worth might explain an expanded KZone but his sub-par OF play is nagging. Let's hope for the best beacuse the RS simply can't start a OF with his power and an OBP under .300.

    I'm not happy even if he reaches his career OBP the next 6 years (.333).
    And, that's not even the biggest concern/issue. His biggest problem will almost certainly not go away: the guy can not hit lefties.

    BA    .262
    OBP .308
    SLG .375
    OPS .684

    His career 650 PA line vs LHPs:
    .262  8  70  (22 SB/9 CS)

    Moon, I think the Rays determined that Jennings was well served by more time in AAA, it certainly fit handy in terms of years of control and Sam Fuld's start to 2011 made it possible.

    Sam did have a very good April, but then hit .157 in May.  TB also played Ruggiano (111 PAs)  in LF quite a few times before calling up Jennings. They also used Ben Zobrist in RF about 1/4th of the games, when playing him at 2B (and Sean Rodriguez at SS (not 2B) would have helped the offense immensely by effectively playing Jennings (.805) or Matt Joyce (.825) over Bignac (.448) or Elliot Johnson (.595).

    Maybe they gained an extra year out of Desmond. If that's the case, I understand.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think Crawford probably comes back pretty well next year. I never thought Crawford was as good as his defensive numbers in left field even when he was in Tampa. My gut feeling is that Crawford is a great athlete, who became even better due to his attitude and work ethic, but he has always made some bone headed plays in LF. I don't know why. If it's hesitance sometimes, a lack of quick decision making skill or whatever. I don't want to speculate because I really don't know but I've been watching him do some pretty messed up plays in LF for years.

    But someone has to sit him down and give him the Reddick treatment. Watch more pitches. Select better. Don't be as anxious. Work the count a little more. He swings at a ton of bad pitches. Giving him some more protection in the lineup probably helps as well. He had guys like Longoria behind him before right. It probably kept his pitch selection weakness from being exploited as much earlier.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

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    I think Crawford probably comes back pretty well next year. I never thought Crawford was as good as his defensive numbers in left field even when he was in Tampa. My gut feeling is that Crawford is a great athlete, who became even better due to his attitude and work ethic, but he has always made some bone headed plays in LF. I don't know why. If it's hesitance sometimes, a lack of quick decision making skill or whatever. I don't want to speculate because I really don't know but I've been watching him do some pretty messed up plays in LF for years. But someone has to sit him down and give him the Reddick treatment. Watch more pitches. Select better. Don't be as anxious. Work the count a little more. He swings at a ton of bad pitches. Giving him some more protection in the lineup probably helps as well. He had guys like Longoria behind him before right. It probably kept his pitch selection weakness from being exploited as much earlier.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    Agree. Some great athletes seem to lack what for a better term can be called "baseball instincts." Crawford seems to lack them, or at least seems to be a little short-changed. Kemp lacks them, but he's a beast. Pedey is vibrant with them. The LA player who defined them, IMO, was Maury Wills.
    That topic aside, right, if anyone other than Reddick on the Sox could benefit from the Reddick treatment, it's Crawford.  But even it may not help him do much better against lefties.
    Don't know where he can be slotted for more protection. Ideas?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    I think Crawford probably comes back pretty well next year. I never thought Crawford was as good as his defensive numbers in left field even when he was in Tampa. My gut feeling is that Crawford is a great athlete, who became even better due to his attitude and work ethic, but he has always made some bone headed plays in LF. I don't know why. If it's hesitance sometimes, a lack of quick decision making skill or whatever. I don't want to speculate because I really don't know but I've been watching him do some pretty messed up plays in LF for years. But someone has to sit him down and give him the Reddick treatment. Watch more pitches. Select better. Don't be as anxious. Work the count a little more. He swings at a ton of bad pitches. Giving him some more protection in the lineup probably helps as well. He had guys like Longoria behind him before right. It probably kept his pitch selection weakness from being exploited as much earlier.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    I bet they reconstruct his swing. Really changing guys selectivity isn't easy though. If he can better protect the corners, pitchers aren't going to get him in a position where he is down in the count and expanding his K Zone IMO. Is current stance makes it very hard for him to square up anything that isn't in the middle. Too much movement. It may be minor the amount he needs to close his stance but what he was doing this year didn't work.

    The probelm as far as protection for CC is going to be that there are currently other guys who will better leverage it. Perdroia was a better 2 hitter than Crawford even in Carl's best year. And for the next few years, will continue to be. So would Youk be. That alone is the great puzzle in the signing. Any logical look at it and the RS talent pool projected him 6 or lower with his career year numbers.

    I agree that Crawford was over rated for his web gems in Tampa but I can't begin t explain the lack of any to offset his occasional lapses in judgement and poor reads this year with similar webgems. bay and Manny looked better than CC did this year. Manny Bleepin' Ramirez for goodness sake.

    But the best I think the RS can hope for is he becomes what his career stats say he was before the signing, certainly not a guy on an incline from his career year 2010. That's a useful player indeed, just making more than he should by about $8M a year if he does.  
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I bet they reconstruct his swing. Really changing guys selectivity isn't easy though. If he can better protect the corners, pitchers aren't going to get him in a position where he is down in the count and expanding his K Zone IMO. Is current stance makes it very hard for him to square up anything that isn't in the middle. Too much movement. It may be minor the amount he needs to close his stance but what he was doing this year didn't work. The probelm as far as protection for CC is going to be that there are currently other guys who will better leverage it. Perdroia was a better 2 hitter than Crawford even in Carl's best year. And for the next few years, will continue to be. So would Youk be. That alone is the great puzzle in the signing. Any logical look at it and the RS talent pool projected him 6 or lower with his career year numbers. I agree that Crawford was over rated for his web gems in Tampa but I can't begin t explain the lack of any to offset his occasional lapses in judgement and poor reads this year with similar webgems. bay and Manny looked better than CC did this year. Manny Bleepin' Ramirez for goodness sake. But the best I think the RS can hope for is he becomes what his career stats say he was before the signing, certainly not a guy on an incline from his career year 2010. That's a useful player indeed, just making more than he should by about $8M a year if he does.  
    Posted by fivekatz

     
     I'd consider putting Youk first ala Dewey Evans, great OBP, walks and power, Pedey second and Ells third.
     A-Gon 4th
     Crawford 5th
    Lavarnway DH 6th
    RH RF??
    Salty C
    Iggy SS
     













     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    AHH!

    Iggy slotted anywhere. Can't wait to see that kid regularly. I think we hold onto Scutaro another year to protect us, and give him more time, but I can't wait for a strong defensive SS to be on the roster, and hopefully starting.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The more I think about things, and as much as I like the numbers Papelbon and Ortiz have put up, I like the scenario below. A snowballs chance in you know where it happens but I  like the below:

    1) Let Papelbon, Ortiz, Tek, Wakefield, McDonald go but offer the first 3 arbitration ( probably a few others I'm not thinking about right now ).

    Result: Close to $30 mil savings if they decline arb. plus 5 top picks net so far. That's a lot of cash and 5 picks is huge.

    2) Slot Lavarnway / Salty at catcher ( Save around $1.5 mil ). Keep 1-2 catchers available at Pawtucket who can come up if needed. Even Wagner wouldn't kill us.
    Ibarra isn't ready but he may end up being a stud comparable to Lavarnway. We have our #1 pick from last year way down there but looking promising in a few years.

    3) Slot Aceves at closer ( Save at least $8 mil )

    4) Sign Fielder if available for $16-$18 mil a year

    Next post for more!
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    The more I think about things, and as much as I like the numbers Papelbon and Ortiz have put up, I like the scenario below. A snowballs chance in you know where it happens but I  like the below: 1) Let Papelbon, Ortiz, Tek, Wakefield, McDonald go but offer the first 3 arbitration ( probably a few others I'm not thinking about right now ). Result: Close to $30 mil savings if they decline arb. plus 5 top picks net so far. That's a lot of cash and 5 picks is huge. 2) Slot Lavarnway / Salty at catcher ( Save around $1.5 mil ). Keep 1-2 catchers available at Pawtucket who can come up if needed. Even Wagner wouldn't kill us. Ibarra isn't ready but he may end up being a stud comparable to Lavarnway. We have our #1 pick from last year way down there but looking promising in a few years. 3) Slot Aceves at closer ( Save at least $8 mil ) 4) Sign Fielder if available for $16-$18 mil a year Next post for more!
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    Fielder will not sign for $16M-$18M unless it is for 10 years. His comps are going to Tex, A-Gon and Ryan Howard, not Jason Bay.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    We should consider Fielder. The guy is an animal:
     
    1) He's 27 and coming into his prime "man" years. For a power hitter that could be huge. Look at his numbers. They are tremendous.

    2) He will want to play 1st but some of the big spenders will want him at DH probably. The Yanks are going to want to keep DH open for Arod going forward. They certainly could benefit from Fielder in that ball park so anything is possible but if they want to keep a slot for Arod in the lineup they may want to keep DH open going forward. The alternative is probably a trade of Arod down the road, picking up a ton of salary. So, The Yanks may not play for Fielder.

    3) So, everyone here will say he will not be worth it for the DH position, and they are probably right but the guy is average at best defensively at 1st and he's going to go down hill there quickly. You want his type of bat in the lineup every game. And he probably improves offensively if he is at DH, in his prime. He would be Ortiz, when Ortiz was Ortiz!

    OK, a pipe dream but I think we should look at it and play in that arena some. We replace Ortiz with someone better plus net a pick.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Fielder will not sign for $16M-$18M unless it is for 10 years. His comps are going to Tex, A-Gon and Ryan Howard, not Jason Bay.
    Posted by fivekatz


    To a large degree I agree KAtz but he is not as good defensively, or even close to TEX or Agon. He is not projected to age as well also due to the weight. His father didn't have a long career and some guys his weight tank at 33. I'm talking 5-6 years at most. No one is going to offer him 10 years. Philadelphia's situation really clamored for Howard. Fielder may be obtained for 6 years / 120 mil - $140 mil but maybe less. How many teams want him as a defensive liability at first with the cash he is going to cost. If I had to guess that is around where he would be to me, and possibly less if the Yanks aren't playing in that deal.

    Fielder is dangerous but he's a lot less dangerous at DH. Of course potentially worth a lot less also for that reason. And who has an open DH slot this year. The Sox. Fielder would be a force against the Yanks, Toronto...etc. He fits in the David Ortiz / Mo Vaughn role of great left handed power hitters in Fenway.

    I think there may be a retraction this year. Look at all the bust contracts. Werth, Crawford, Lackey...etc. Fielder is dangerous. And he is less than average defensively and trending down probably. And he is going to get hurt if he is diving for balls around 1st. He's like Bryce Harper. They took a tremendous catching prospect and put him in the OF so they could get his bat in the lineup every day, and keep him healthy.

    Fielder hits for decent average, great power and OBP. He is maybe one of the top 5 offensive forces in baseball. If we can't sign a great starter we might want to consider completely optimizing that lineup.

    His numbers:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5915/prince-fielder
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    So what would he cost? That is the question plus do we want to hard slot the DH position again for another 5-6 years? He is exactly the type of bat that is a game changer. He would drive in lots of runs in this lineup. Another LH hitter though!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If Youk can play 1B/3B and DH is that not far more valuable than Ortiz? We were asking Youk to be our Manny in 2009 and 2010... can we not expect 30 homers, 100 ribbies from him still? What if AGon got hurt? Is Ortiz going to play 1st? Youk?  During inter-league play if our new third-baseman is not hitting well cannot Youk play third on any given day? What if the next third-baseman gets hurt? Who is gonna fill in? Ortiz? Not to mention Youk can sure sub in the OF if absolutely necessary.

    I think its obvious who should stay and who should go IF a choice has to be made for 2012.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    My guess is probably in the 6 year / $120-$140M range. I'm sure he wants more but he is not Agon or Texiera. Someone might pay him $150 mil or more and if so let him go.

    One of the biggest obstacles is that he apparently wants to play 1st. As I said, snowball's chance of happening but worth exploring some IMO.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Someone's going to get Pujols. The Yanks are set at 1st as are we and many other big market teams like Philly. Fielder is probably a 20% chance of happening at best but worth a look. He is a special talent.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Amp, I agree with you that the best owners are involved however your two examples are completely different IMO.  George got involved too much in some views, hiring and firing managers, reaming out the team publicly, etc.  Kraft on the other hand supplies the money, defines corporate values, etc. but leaves general football decisions to his football people.  I would say Henry is the latter type.  Don't know if the former type always works out so well.  On a related topic, I'm not sure if I buy Henry has been remiss because he spends all his time on soccer and NASCAR now.  I just think he has a pulse on the RS from what I've read.  Maybe he is remiss in some ways.  It's hard for us on the outside to know what is really happening at times.  I liked Tito, but I also think it was his job to act if he had to and not worry about ownership.  Of course if players went behind his back, that's a different thing.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Saving DH as an option for Youk has a lot of merit but aging 3rd basemen seem to get hurt a lot. I'm not sure Youk will even have his option picked up after 2012. He has a $1 mil buyout and he's been hurt lately. His defense a little less than average.

    The trend lines for 32 and 33 year old 3rd basemen is often not good. They are an injury risk waiting to happen. Especially with a body type like Youks.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Fielder is less than 20% likely. Probably around 10%. But it is worth at least looking at.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Saving DH as an option for Youk has a lot of merit but aging 3rd basemen seem to get hurt a lot. I'm not sure Youk will even have his option picked up after 2012. He has a $1 mil buyout and he's been hurt lately. His defense a little less than average. The trend lines for 32 and 33 year old 3rd basemen is often not good. They are an injury risk waiting to happen. Especially with a body type like Youks.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    I agree Youk's contract is built with allowing for those decisions based on those reasons.

    While his defense was and is a ton better, you made the argument why not resign Beltre rather than trade for Gonzalez. And while Beltre's body type is maybe better, his swing type ages badly (free swinger low spread between BA and OBP). And that meant moving him to DH at 34 or 35 would have been difficult. Youk's offense may allow him to be a pretty productive hitter late into his career. Guys who know and work the strike zone last longer than guys who hit bals 4 inches off the plate for 3 run jacks tend to.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Shadow721. Show Shadow721's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    you think any type A ball player would want to come to Boston. You sox fans have short memories and are a bunch cry babies. What you done to Tito is a crime.....04...07....He gave you 2 WS rings!
    Fenway WS tickets for sale cheap....great seats available....plenty of parking...no bathroom or concession lines!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Yeah 5K, Youk's versatility has always been a big plus for the RS.  He gives lots of flexibility and can cover up many situations and problems.  I'm for exploring all options (trades) at this time, but if he stays he can help us and I think he'll be much better this year with his injuries hopefully out of the way.  I don't think long term at 3rd base is going to work at his age.  I can see us going for the status quo for next year, but Papi has to be watched carefully.  I don't like a three year contract for him.  Honestly I would pay him a little more if we could just go one year at a time.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I worry most about Youk's ability to sit on the bench all night and just get up to hit 4-5 times.

    It would be nice to have a DH who can play 3B and 1B, especially in the NL parks. The timing might work out just right for Lavarnway's transition to DH after Youk leaves.

    As much as Theo gets grief for his planning, it's pretty amazing that the two biggest FAs we may lose this year, both have our best young prospects knocking at the door: Bard (Closer) and Lavarnway (DH).

    Yes, we could use a top, ML-ready pitching prospect, but we do also have this:

    Drew> Reddick, Kalish, and Brentz
    Scutaro> Iglesias & Bogaerts
    VTek> Lavarnway

    Aging/injury prone Youk> Middlebrooks (Aviles/Lowrie as Vets)
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tbrod. Show tbrod's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    How is Bard a "prospect"?
    Still stuck on Reddick, I see.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Middlebrooks does seem to be timed perfectly. Possibly the biggest reason we don't bring Youk back after next year is the imminence of Middlebrooks plus 2 of our very best prospects are following after him, and to me, both prospects will be likely to be better hitters than Middlebrooks. Both should move fast through the system if healthy. Maybe available by 2013/2014 but both are very young.

    The hand writing is probably on the wall for Youk. I don't see us making a lot of plans to meet his needs. We all love the guy but he might well be gone after 2012 or 2013 ( his option is fairly reasonable ).

    I'm not convinced Middlebrooks is going to hit as needed. This is really the first solid year he has had ( to me ) and he still ended up around .285 with a .331 OBP ( approximations ). He fits the profile and has decent defense and over 20 HR pop. But will he maintain that next year? I like to see more than 1 year of consistently good performance.

    Cechinni and Bogaerts ( he probably slots at 3rd or LF to me ) are superior prospects to me over the long haul. Just my take. Lots of people like Middlebrooks though. He probably is a keeper.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    I worry most about Youk's ability to sit on the bench all night and just get up to hit 4-5 times. It would be nice to have a DH who can play 3B and 1B, especially in the NL parks. The timing might work out just right for Lavarnway's transition to DH after Youk leaves. As much as Theo gets grief for his planning, it's pretty amazing that the two biggest FAs we may lose this year, both have our best young prospects knocking at the door: Bard (Closer) and Lavarnway (DH). Yes, we could use a top, ML-ready pitching prospect, but we do also have this: Drew> Reddick, Kalish, and Brentz Scutaro> Iglesias & Bogaerts VTek> Lavarnway Aging/injury prone Youk> Middlebrooks (Aviles/Lowrie as Vets)
    Posted by moonslav59
    That's a very fair take about the unique position of pinch hitting 4 times a night. I have made that case in the past about DH, in terms of why it was a no brainer to extend Ortiz last winter and how dangerous it is to sign players who have not been regular DHs to longer term-big $$ deals.

    And yes for all the bagging on Epstein he had a plan. The pitching at this point should not have been as glaring an issue. He had 5 pitchers just hitting their 30's or younger tied up for years (Dice K thought to be the weakest link was in control through 2012). But stuff happens. As has the best OF prospect losing the season to injury and Iggy not being able to hit water falling out of a boat at AAA. The contracts were all lined up for some clean succession though.

    IMO Lavarnway's bat has progressed faster than they projected and so much so that his catching skills are still lagging behind. But there is no doubt when your two best position player prospects are two of baseball's harder to fill positions with high OPS (3B and C) you haven't done everything wrong.
     
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