A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I agree Youk's contract is built with allowing for those decisions based on those reasons. While his defense was and is a ton better, you made the argument why not resign Beltre rather than trade for Gonzalez. And while Beltre's body type is maybe better, his swing type ages badly (free swinger low spread between BA and OBP). And that meant moving him to DH at 34 or 35 would have been difficult. Youk's offense may allow him to be a pretty productive hitter late into his career. Guys who know and work the strike zone last longer than guys who hit bals 4 inches off the plate for 3 run jacks tend to.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Beltre's older but I bet he's still playing 3rd long after Youk moves on to DH.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Fielder got on base quite a bit more often than Ellsbury, in a lot fewer AB. Fielder put up some tremendous numbers, albeit in Milwaukee.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : It is a fall back position that might work but I think they still give Bard a run at it first. Ups and downs in 2011 or not the kid is remarkable with inherited runners late and close and we have seen Aceves middle of the game mostly. Aceves likely would try and fill Bard's role which would be a leap for him as it is and one of the biggest domino affects of Papelbon's departure.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    I'd be all for Bard as the Closer, but he broke down in September too.  I mean, is he really going to have the endurance for that? There seems to be other options. If Papelbon walks and there's Bard, Jenks, Aceves and maybe even Wheeler- couldn't they fight it out in the spring?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from athens7676. Show athens7676's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I have always been a Youk fan (as a Braves fan... i have felt like he is the kind of player we need to win) but this year, between the obvious breaking down of his body, and the fact this somewhat unlikeable clubhouse tendancies got worse, I don't see him bringing in a whole lot in trade value BEFORE next season...if he got off to a great start...then you could trade high on him, and maybe get a solid arm in return.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I have always been a Youk fan (as a Braves fan... i have felt like he is the kind of player we need to win) but this year, between the obvious breaking down of his body, and the fact this somewhat unlikeable clubhouse tendancies got worse, I don't see him bringing in a whole lot in trade value BEFORE next season...if he got off to a great start...then you could trade high on him, and maybe get a solid arm in return.
    Posted by athens7676[/QUOTE]

    If Youkilis got traded he would obviously be sold as a 1st baseman+. He was arguably the best 1B in AL before his move to 3B. I'm curious to see how the FA 1B market plays out this year. Lots of big names rubbing their bellies and licking their lips. Youk could be the bargain via trade ( for pitching of course ).
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from athens7676. Show athens7676's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I see your point emp... but I do not think that Youk is trading at a high value right now... he is hurt A LOT, he is not the most well liked clubhouse guy, and even when healthy this year..he seemed in decline...that is why I would wait for him to get healthy, hopefully have a good start....then deal him... right now, there is no way you are getting quality starting pitching for Youk (especially at 12+million dollars)
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Where'd the reply button go? Anyways, Yeah, I don't think Youkilis IS a bad team mate, club house or otherwise. Don't believe everything you read. Youkilis has had a stretch of injuries the last 2 years, but 1B is the least demanding position. I don't expect too many complications with his hernia surgery. He's got the offseason to get healthy and if he did get traded he'd have to pass a physical anyways. He'll get clearance to get on the bike a month from now. I think there's a 20% chance he might be expendable.

    I think $12Mil a year for a player like Youkilis is a bargain.

    How much $ you think Pujols is going to net? Pujols is the best player of his generation, can play many positions, he should set the market for first basemen. Off the top of my head $25Mil a year? More? What's Fielder gonna net? $18- $21Mil a year? And Fielder's health is a time bomb begging to happen. Just saying.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from tbrod. Show tbrod's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I don't get putting down Fielder's numbers because he plays in Milwaukee.
    What is that supposed to mean?
    The park is a fair park, without great advantage to pitchers or hitters.
    And don't give me that "he plays in the NL" crap.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Someone is going to land Pujols or Fielder. Fielder is just 27 and coming into his prime. He just noted to reporters that he is receptive to becoming a DH. Anything is possible, and after last year the Sox might just want to make a big splash again...and the guy with the best belly flop in the league right now is Fielder.

    As great as it would be to add him though, the fit is not ideal. I'm just saying it's possible. They have cleared room for the guys they want before.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from CablesWyndBairn. Show CablesWyndBairn's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    1) Re-sign Papi?  Youk is the DH in waiting, and he can play two positions in a pinch.  Plus you already have him signed to a reasonable deal.  I love Papi, but a guy with his stature on this team saying he's not a babysitter?  Not what I wanted to hear.  Plus I'd be very wary of signing him for anything but year to year, or for more than 2 years.     

    2) Re-sign Paps?  I would've said let him go, but he's one of the guys that stood up and took accountability for his play in Sept.  He gets his chance to hit FA, and I can't help but think someone will overpay.  He proved he can do it here, but a long term deal scares me.  Is Bard ready?  Is Jenks reliable?     

    3) Options for Scutaro, Wheeler and Miller?  I'd pick up the options on Scutaro and Wheeler.  The Cuban wonderkid isn't ready, and can they upgrade on a short term deal to begin with at SS?  I'd think long and hard about Miller, and it may be worth picking up his option if they let Wake walk.  They need starters, but I think Miller is out of options and has to be on the roster.  It's #5 starter or bust for him.   

    4) Arb raises?  All get a raise, but can they do better than McDonald?  You'd have to think so. 

    5) Wake and Vtek?  Wake has been a bargain, but I think the pursuit of records wasa  distraction.  Can he do anything other than start?  Does he deserve to be the #5 over a guy like Miller?  The Salty/Varitek combo was ok to me.  If they can upgrade, great.  But it was short money to have a passable catching tandem.  


    6) Trades?  Lackey for another contract.  I think it has to be done.  Not a huge Lowrie fan.  Glimmer of potentuial followed by long DL stint is maddening. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Fielder has got sabermetrics writen all over him in terms of getting on base and he would slot in as a tremendous #4 or 5 in terms of driving in runs. Imagine including him in that lineup with hopefully a productive Lavarnway in place of Salty. We already had maybe the best lineup in the league. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Beltre's older but I bet he's still playing 3rd long after Youk moves on to DH.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]Just to keep things in perspective Beltre played in 4 more games than Youk did in 2011.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I'd be all for Bard as the Closer, but he broke down in September too.  I mean, is he really going to have the endurance for that? There seems to be other options. If Papelbon walks and there's Bard, Jenks, Aceves and maybe even Wheeler- couldn't they fight it out in the spring?
    Posted by emp9[/QUOTE]

    Warning: Small Sample Sizes

    Yes, Bard had a poor September, but...

    3 IP in playoffs: 0 hits 0 runs
    2010: about a 2.00 ERA in Aug/Sept combined.
    2010: .494 OPS against in High Leverage situations (.793 in Low)
    2010: .459 Late & Close (PAs after the 7th Inning with at least the tying run on deck)

    Bard Career: 
    2.88 ERA and .582 OPS against.
    Late & Close: .555
    High leverage: .575

    Papelbon Career:
    2.33 ERA and .574 OPS against (nearly identicle to Bard's)
    Late & Close: .539
    High Leverage: .560

    Cost the next 3 years:
    Papelbon: $39-45M
    D. Bard:     $8-12M (via arbs)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think I'm in the minority again here, but I say not only sign Papi, but sign him to a three-year deal.  He's not going to put up the numbers at age 38 that he did this year, but he is going to 1) feel respected 2) feel invested in the team and 3) continue to be a top 20 hitter against right-handed pitching.  The griping we've seen in recent years will disappear, and he was already prepared to take more of a platoon role before this season started.  Even in 2014, a platoon of Papi & Youk or Lavarnway could be the most productive DH slot in the league.

    One other benefit - by offering Papi say 3 years / $30M, we're actually saving $2.5M off the CBT.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Fielder has got sabermetrics writen all over him in terms of getting on base and he would slot in as a tremendous #4 or 5 in terms of driving in runs. Imagine including him in that lineup with hopefully a productive Lavarnway in place of Salty. We already had maybe the best lineup in the league. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Boom, having Fielder's bat in our line-up would be insanely awesome, but I do not see it happening. With AGon entrenched at 1B, he'd be our FT DH. We'd have the same issues in NL parks we had this year. His cost would be very high for the upgrade over what Papi did in 2011. The fact that he is just 28 and plays almost everyday is nice indeed.

    I still think Lavarnway is our future DH. I hope he becomes a good catcher, so we can gain a lot on our opponent's at that slot, but signing Fielder locks Lavarnway in at catcher.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I think I'm in the minority again here, but I say not only sign Papi, but sign him to a three-year deal.  He's not going to put up the numbers at age 38 that he did this year, but he is going to 1) feel respected 2) feel invested in the team and 3) continue to be a top 20 hitter against right-handed pitching.  The griping we've seen in recent years will disappear, and he was already prepared to take more of a platoon role before this season started.  Even in 2014, a platoon of Papi & Youk or Lavarnway could be the most productive DH slot in the league. One other benefit - by offering Papi say 3 years / $30M, we're actually saving $2.5M off the CBT.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    1) I think 2 years will keep him here.
    2) Youk's option year is 2013, so he probably won't be here in 2014.
    3) Lavarnway hits lefties well, so that would work out well with Papi.

    We could see an incentive deal worked out or this...

    2012: $11M
    2011: $9M
    2012: $7M with a buyout of $2M
    (Meaning it could be a $22M/2 yr deal)

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Before any of these decisions are made, doesn't John Henry need to either come out and support Theo 100% with a press conference or fire him? Then next up will be replacing Tito. Then and only then can we begin to speculate what our Sox will look like next year based on the Ownership/Front Office/Manager make up.

    Right now I feel like we are in deep limbo.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Warning: Small Sample Sizes Yes, Bard had a poor September, but... 3 IP in playoffs: 0 hits 0 runs 2010: about a 2.00 ERA in Aug/Sept combined. 2010: .494 OPS against in High Leverage situations (.793 in Low) 2010: .459 Late & Close (PAs after the 7th Inning with at least the tying run on deck) Bard Career:  2.88 ERA and .582 OPS against. Late & Close: .555 High leverage: .575 Papelbon Career: 2.33 ERA and .574 OPS against (nearly identicle to Bard's) Late & Close: .539 High Leverage: .560 Cost the next 3 years: Papelbon: $39-45M D. Bard:     $8-12M (via arbs)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I think the Sox let Papelbon walk for lots of reasons.
    1) Salary.
    2) He'll be a TypeA
    3) Free's up money to address other needs.
    4) Cost controlled and comparable replacements.*
    5) There's also cheaper options via FA.
    6) The long list of FA Closers available is not horrible ( probably the best category on the FA list ).

    *It's not only that Bard had a bad September as far as the Holds go. I didn't see him light up the radar gun either like he usually does. I'm used to seeing him start at 96mph and work his way up to 100mph quickly. I didn't see that at the end either.  Not sure he hit 97mph? Did anyone else notice a drop in velocity? They only flash the radar for 2 seconds and most times I'm still watching the play so... I could be wrong.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : 1) I think 2 years will keep him here. 2) Youk's option year is 2013, so he probably won't be here in 2014. 3) Lavarnway hits lefties well, so that would work out well with Papi. We could see an incentive deal worked out or this... 2012: $11M 2011: $9M 2012: $7M with a buyout of $2M (Meaning it could be a $22M/2 yr deal)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I like it!

    I'm not convinced that Youk is done when his contract is up - I think the MacMullen piece was exaggerated, and if 2012 is relatively pain-free, I think we'll see the defense improve dramatically.  If Youk is still with us in 2014, I think there is a good chance he could play 3rd, DH 25% of the games, and still be very effective.  Middlebrooks needs to show more than .830 OPS at AA before I'm ready to slot him into the lineup.




     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Good points, Slo, but I still think Youk's best position at his age is 1B or DH (if he can handle sitting all day). I think he may be traded, if we keep Papi, not because of his attitude, but because his value is higher at 1B and we have one of those.

    I also think an Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B for a year until Middlebrooks is ready is not such a bad thing, as long as the Youk trade nets an upgrade elsewhere and we use the money savings wisely to ugrade somewhere else. 

    I think we might see Papi walk.
    Youk DHs, Lowrie plays 3B, and Lavarnway Catches vs LHPs.
    Youk plays 3B, Lava or someone else DHs, and Salty catches vs RHPs.
    We take Youk's 2013 option and trade him after 2012.
    Aviles, Lowrie and Middlebrooks play 3B in 2013.
    Lavarnway DHs and is the 3rd Catcher in 2013.



     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Good points, Slo, but I still think Youk's best position at his age is 1B or DH (if he can handle sitting all day). I think he may be traded, if we keep Papi, not because of his attitude, but because his value is higher at 1B and we have one of those. I also think an Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B for a year until Middlebrooks is ready is not such a bad thing, as long as the Youk trade nets an upgrade elsewhere and we use the money savings wisely to ugrade somewhere else.  I think we might see Papi walk. Youk DHs, Lowrie plays 3B, and Lavarnway Catches vs LHPs. Youk plays 3B, Lava or someone else DHs, and Salty catches vs RHPs. We take Youk's 2013 option and trade him after 2012. Aviles, Lowrie and Middlebrooks play 3B in 2013. Lavarnway DHs and is the 3rd Catcher in 2013.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]The RS IMO are going to bust their tails trying to make Lavarnway a 120 game catcher. I am sure they hope that in 2013 Middlebrooks would be ready fro them to commit to as a 140 plus game player. Aside from that I agree that sort patchwork succession could be in the cards. And it could frankly take the form of DH by committee with one feature being that as good a 1B he is, we reduce A-Gon's 156 games in the field.

    I think of the starting position players, few are tradable and only Pedey and maybe A-Gon would be on a not available list. So Youk is a possibility. But some of the "reasoning" if you could call what is going on reason. Trading Youk (clubhouse cancer) isn't what it would be about and that there isn't urgency to move the player, there would be interest if the trade in the opinion of the RS.   
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from CablesWyndBairn. Show CablesWyndBairn's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Isn't next year supposed to be the end of the "bridge year(s)" that Theo threw out there a while back?  Based on their minor league talent, just how was that going to unfold?  Is Reddick and/or Kalish a part of that plan?   Middlebrooks is a ways away.  Who is the next young pitcher brought up?  Not to sound negative, but the minor league pipeline isn't perfectly aligning with reaching the end of the bridge.  I guess you could say that part of that plan involved the guys traded for Gonzalez.  But there seems to be holes that will need to be filled through FA and trades rather than through major league call ups.   
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I think I'm in the minority again here, but I say not only sign Papi, but sign him to a three-year deal.  He's not going to put up the numbers at age 38 that he did this year, but he is going to 1) feel respected 2) feel invested in the team and 3) continue to be a top 20 hitter against right-handed pitching.  The griping we've seen in recent years will disappear, and he was already prepared to take more of a platoon role before this season started.  Even in 2014, a platoon of Papi & Youk or Lavarnway could be the most productive DH slot in the league. One other benefit - by offering Papi say 3 years / $30M, we're actually saving $2.5M off the CBT.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]The only flaw I see with this thinking is the second in year two or three you have platoon Ortiz versus LH pitching he is going to stop feeling invested and stop feeling respected.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Isn't next year supposed to be the end of the "bridge year(s)" that Theo threw out there a while back?  Based on their minor league talent, just how was that going to unfold?  Is Reddick and/or Kalish a part of that plan?   Middlebrooks is a ways away.  Who is the next young pitcher brought up?  Not to sound negative, but the minor league pipeline isn't perfectly aligning with reaching the end of the bridge.  I guess you could say that part of that plan involved the guys traded for Gonzalez.  But there seems to be holes that will need to be filled through FA and trades rather than through major league call ups.   
    Posted by CablesWyndBairn[/QUOTE]The "plan" hit potholes. That happens projecting future talent and moves. That's the business those guys are in.

    Yes Kalish was probably 1A in that plan, with Reddick being 1B. Reddick is a riddle, Kalish lost a year to injury and is now a huge ? still. Crawford was supposed to lock in one of the OF spots...ooops.

    Iggy was part of that bridge and still is. They had an option with Scutaro for a reason...

    Gonzalez was part of the bridge, a middle of the order power hitter that the farm system did not have.

    Youk is under their control through 2013 so Middlebrooks point of development is not an issue.

    They thought they had their pitching pretty locked up and set through 2012.

    Plan's in sports seldom play out exactly like they do on paper.




     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : The only flaw I see with this thinking is the second in year two or three you have platoon Ortiz versus LH pitching he is going to stop feeling invested and stop feeling respected.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    If I remember correctly, that was the plan for Ortiz going into this year, and he didn't put up much of a fuss.  And there is a good chance he gets into most games - maybe at more crucial points than he otherwise would.

     

Share