A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
      Jose Antonio (Aleman) Iglesias Positions : Shortstop and Pinch Runner Bats: Right, Throws: Right Height: 5' 11", Weight: 175 lb. Born : January 5 , 1990 in La Habana, La Habana, Cuba (Age 21) Signed by the Boston Red Sox as an amateur free agent in 2009. ( All Transactions ) Debut : May 8, 2011 Team : RedSox 2011 2012 Contract Status : Signed thru 2013, 4 yrs/$14.24M (10-13) ( details ) [*] Service Time (01/2012) : 0.029, Arb Eligible : 2015, Free Agent : 2018 I am not sure. BBRef is usually pretty on the ball.!
    Posted by tom-uk

    I tend to believe this is the most likely scenario. Which is great news. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Would anyone here be thrilled if the Sox had just signed Pujols to a 10 year $254 million dollar deal?
    Posted by BurritoT


    no, I'd be ecstatic, as it's not my money, and it would allow the Sox to trade AGON for a top of the line starting pitcher.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I was in heaven when Manny signed his 8-year deal, further evidenced by 2 WS title teams with him as a leading star.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    We do Boom, he will be a FA in 2018 at the earliest

    Whoever typed this does not have a clue what they are talking about. Regardless of what Red Sox do via arbitration, tender, by virtue of 40 man roster spot MLB 4 year contract, Iglesias will be CBA FA by the end of 2015, if not sooner. 

    Wow, your third position in  less than a month.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Briam MacPherson (Projo.com) and 791 (firebrandal) were kind enough to confirm that IFAs are under the same rules as any player.  I sense a mea culpa coming from Softy for calling me a dim bulb. 
                                          
    Iggy will be a FA under old and new CBA becuase he was not drafted and was an IFA (International Free Agent
    hmmm?

    The worst option is to make him a backup.  He is not going to start in Fenway so delay the arb. clock.


    Tom,
    Thanks for the email. Iglesias can't be a free agent until he has six years of service time, just like everyone else. His initial four-year contract simply ensured he'd (a) go on the 40-man roster right away, which means he'll be out of options after this season; and (b) be paid at a higher level than a typical Triple-A or first- or second-year major-leaguer.

    The same  concept applies to Japanese players like Junichi Tazawa, whose three-year contract expired after last season but who isn't even eligible for arbitration yet, let alone free agency.

    Brian


    Hey Tom! 

    First of all, free agency is entirely set up major league service time. According to Cots Baseball Contracts, Iglesias has only 29 days of major league service time to his credit. A player must have as little as six years (180 days) of major league service time in order to become a traditional free agent. (Players can become free agents via being released or non-tendered contracts during the arbitration process, but we won't consider that.) If Iglesias spends at least 151 days on the 25 man roster next year (very unlikely if you ask me), he will have have one year of MLB service time and will be eligible for free agency after the 2017 season. If he spends fewer than 151 days on the roster, he'll get that opportunity after the 2018 season, provided he sees at least 151 days of MLB service time between 2012 and 2013. Again, that's also not a guarantee if he keeps hitting at the same rate in AAA going forward as he did in 2011.

    Essentially, what it boils down to is the amount of service time he has under his belt. His contract will run out after the 2013 season, and at that point they'll be able to sign him to a one year contract that's significantly below his $2.063M per season he's making now. If you want me to project out, I'd guess he receives his first official year of service time at some point in 2013, reaches arbitration in 2015/2016 (depending on if he gets Super 2 status), and becomes a free agent after the 2018 season.

    Hope this helps! Hope all is well!

    Chip


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Briam MacPherson (Projo.com) and 791 (firebrandal) were kind enough to confirm that IFAs are under the same rules as any player.  I sense a mea culpa coming from Softy. The worst option is to make him a backup.  He is not going to start in Fenway so delay the arb. clock. Tom, Thanks for the email. Iglesias can't be a free agent until he has six years of service time, just like everyone else. His initial four-year contract simply ensured he'd (a) go on the 40-man roster right away, which means he'll be out of options after this season; and (b) be paid at a higher level than a typical Triple-A or first- or second-year major-leaguer. The same  concept applies to Japanese players like Junichi Tazawa, whose three-year contract expired after last season but who isn't even eligible for arbitration yet, let alone free agency. Brian Hey Tom!  First of all, free agency is entirely set up major league service time. According to Cots Baseball Contracts, Iglesias has only 29 days of major league service time to his credit. A player must have as little as six years (180 days) of major league service time in order to become a traditional free agent. (Players can become free agents via being released or non-tendered contracts during the arbitration process, but we won't consider that.) If Iglesias spends at least 151 days on the 25 man roster next year (very unlikely if you ask me), he will have have one year of MLB service time and will be eligible for free agency after the 2017 season. If he spends fewer than 151 days on the roster, he'll get that opportunity after the 2018 season, provided he sees at least 151 days of MLB service time between 2012 and 2013. Again, that's also not a guarantee if he keeps hitting at the same rate in AAA going forward as he did in 2011. Essentially, what it boils down to is the amount of service time he has under his belt. His contract will run out after the 2013 season, and at that point they'll be able to sign him to a one year contract that's significantly below his $2.063M per season he's making now. If you want me to project out, I'd guess he receives his first official year of service time at some point in 2013, reaches arbitration in 2015/2016 (depending on if he gets Super 2 status), and becomes a free agent after the 2018 season. Hope this helps! Hope all is well! Chip
    Posted by tom-uk

    Thanks Tom for doing the legwork to clarify that, as well as Chip and Brian! It is good news!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Yes, it is!

    Softy and I were wrong.

    Guess which one will admit it?
    (OH! I just gave away the answer.)
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The guy is not correct. Service time and control for non-drafted players and IFA who sign major league contracts is not the same. Iglesias will be a FA no later than 2015.  
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    That was a heck of a Latos trade. Brynes got a good deal there potentially. And now he is shopping Rizzo to the Cubs for Garza! 

    And we are making major moves for guys like Shoppach.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    What is really happening is the impact of Liverpool. Competing in that league is near impossible. Some owners there do not even care about making money. It's like owning a computer store when everyone wanted to own a computer store. How many computer stores are out there now...like virtually none. They couldn't survive long term as the competition was fierce. 

    We are going to probably be playing 2nd fiddle to the financial needs of Liverpool for a while.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    boomerang, i've been hinting to that now for a long time. Liverpool is the No. 1 priority of Mr. Henry, and frankly, I don't see anything wrong with that from a business standpoint. The Sox were a professional disaster and a business failing (if you view it from a salary to performance gained point of view). If Henry would rather see another toy do well, like Liverpool, then I hope Liverpool wins the goddarn European Cup. As far as the Sox are concerned, the team has been coming back to the days of Duquette, trying to squeeze the everlasting lemon till its dry in getting a 4th,5th starter, and nickel and diming to solve the other RF, SS issues. Hence .176 hitting Shoppach joins the team roster again. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If they actually play Shoppach only vs LH'd starters and leave him in those whole games, he should gte about 70% of his PAs vs LHPs. His offense won't be bad under those conditions. Since Salty rots vs RHPs, a strict platoon would be benficial to all. Let's hope that's what Ben and Bobby have in mind.

    If Lava could be on the roster as a 3rd catcher/DH/OF, we could pinch hit for Shop or Salty when they bring in an opposite handed pitcher. With Papi on the roster, I can't see that happening.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Lavarnway's route to the majors was stunted by the Shoppach signing and the Ortiz signing. Or maybe they are counting on both Shoppach/Lavarnway to unseat Salty from the catching rotation. No idea at this point. You know my feelings on Salty.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Lava/Shop do not match up well on the L-R platoon thing.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Ozzie Smith was a ML player for eight years before he "learned to hit." After that, he performed respectably with the bat. IMO, Igglesias will not "learn to hit" in Pawtucket. He will either hit or not hit well enough to stick with Boston in Boston. There is a long history in baseball of great SS gloves whose defense earned them a decent shot at the job. Some made it, some didn't. Decisions were often made not solely on the basis of the bat but on a particular team's needs and priorities.  Maybe the Sox did the Right Thing to retain Scutaro for the job and to ticket Igglesias for a start in AAA. They can always promote Igglesias and, I suppose, make Scutaro the UIF, and figure out what to do with Aviles and Punto. But I would have let Scutaro walk, and then in ST taken Igglesias by the hand to the SS position and said, "Here." Is Scutaro's "bat" going to make that much difference in 2012? Odds are that he won't come close to hitting .299 again. While I don't agree with people who talk about his "noodle arm" and the like, I don't regard him as an "adequate" ( whatever that means ) SS in THIS Boston lineup. Even if Youkilis remains healthy ( IF ), he still figures to be somewhat slow off the dime to his left. And he's not going to get any quicker. The "hole" is a critical defensive zone. Either the third baseman must plug it going left, or the SS must scoop deep and have a gun to first.  Neither figures to meet these requirements with a Youkilis/Scutaro combination. Igglesias is said to have great range in both directions, soft  sure hands, and a powerful arm. He's made some errors. ( So has Beltre. ) But they will probably be reduced with experience -- and the confidence that should come as a starting SS in Boston. Confidence. Some people say that Igglesias's would sink if he stinks originally with the bat. ( Pedey's didn't. Ozzie's didn't. ) We don't know what this young man is made of. Tito handled Pedey perfectly. IMO, Valentine is the right man to manage Igglesias.  I suspect that I'm in a minority on this issue. ( I also have a pitcher's mentality. Love that defense. ) For the sake of the team, I hope I'm wrong about how serious a liability the Sox have on the left side.  Time, as always, will tell.
    Posted by expitch


    Ex-P you can add Omar Vizquel to early strugglers who turned it around.

    MLB
    22yo    .534
    23yo    .593
    24        .595
    29        .779
    32        .833  
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Ex-P you can add Omar Vizquel to early strugglers who turned it around. MLB 22yo    .534 23yo    .593 24        .595 29        .779 32        .833  
    Posted by tom-uk
    Right. Good addition.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Aren't the Yankees nickel and diming now and don't they own / partly own the Manchester United futbal club.  Aren't many other owners also involved or were with European futball? Why not have Henry dabble in other means of raising revenue. Isn't NESN a cash cow for the Red Sox?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I really don't see it as Henry suddenly going cheap for whatever reason. We've been near the luxury limit almost every year and will be again in 2012.

    The AGon and Buch extensions, that only began to count towards the tax in 2012, ate up most of the available spending money for this winter. We should be in better shape next winter, and the free agents look better then as well.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    If they actually play Shoppach only vs LH'd starters and leave him in those whole games, he should gte about 70% of his PAs vs LHPs. His offense won't be bad under those conditions. Since Salty rots vs RHPs, a strict platoon would be benficial to all. Let's hope that's what Ben and Bobby have in mind. If Lava could be on the roster as a 3rd catcher/DH/OF, we could pinch hit for Shop or Salty when they bring in an opposite handed pitcher. With Papi on the roster, I can't see that happening.
    Posted by moonslav59

    He had more AB against RH pitching last year, even though he only hit .111 against them. A strict platoon at catcher is tough to pull off.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Yes, it's not easy since we may play 5 straight righties and Salty will need a rest, but I do think we can get Shopp more ABs vs LHPs than he had last year.

    Tito didn't even try a L-R catcher platoon last year. It was all personal caddy nonsense. Not only did that hurt our offense, it hurt Salty's development & experience building with pitchers like Beckett.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    That's a good point, and in some respects puts the CERA argument for debate. If you take a catcher and say you get to catch Hall of Famer Steve Carlton every start and then you catch 10 other games, the regular starting catcher now is minus his starts with the best pitcher on his staff and may have his entire CERA affected due to never getting to catch a team's premier ace or No. 2. That doesn't take away from bulpen, other starters, but it does adversely affect a CERA one way or the other for the 2 catchers. If I'm caddying Verlander every start and someone else is catching 4 other starters, I'm going to get a 100 percent chance that my CERA is better than the other catcher. On Salty, you're right, moon, really by him not getting opportunities to catch Beckett, it did hurt him.

    At the same time, Salty may have sped the Wakefield can't be relied talk as people really have no idea how much the basically rookie catcher hurt Tim's performances with his inability to catch him, especially in the 2nd half of the season. Forget about CERA for a moment, and realize that catchers can be poor enough to really throw a pitcher's chance to win or chance to be fully effective for a loop. A good catcher, a mistake-free type catcher, can enhance the same. As for calling games, maybe the best SPs in baseball can throw to anyone, but most of the starters in MLB need some help behind that dish--whether it's a strong throwing arm to cut down runners stealing, calling a game that reflects advanced scouting reports, or simply blocking the plate better.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    An addendum to my post above about SS.
    Whether the Sox go to Iglesias sooner or later, or at all, will depend not only on how the starting combination of Youkilis/Scutaro is working out, but also, I should think, on production from the 6, 7, and 8 slots. Let's assume they will be filled by Crawford, Reddick, and Salty in some order. Crawford can be expected to do better, but by how much? Reddick was doing very well until, apparently, he hurt his hand. Salty fizzled after showing good promise. 
    If, in the aggregate, these three slots are producing respectable or better numbers, Iglesias could be carried in the 9 slot. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    When Lugo played SS, Lowell was there to scoop up everything at 3b during a time where his mobility, range was still at the top of his game. When Cabrera played SS, he still had a pretty decent guy in Mueller at 3b, and Orlando's range and play was at the top of his game. When Boggs was at 3b, it cut down the need for Spike Owen to have more range in 86. Gold Glove Beltre was at 3b thus allowing Scutaro/Lowrie to be adequate enough. What's my point? Well, Youkilis is clearly a guy who has lost his range a bit (or never really was cut out to play 3b) and is now injury-prone, and Scutaro is that much older as a guy who has some range, but not really that much and certainly can't make plays to Youks' hole side.  So it's imperative the Sox need to either get a new SS or get a new 3B. The Sox defense on the left side is about as poor a combo as ever allowed to start a season if things go the way it is going for 2012. Not talking offense. Solely this is about infield defense. The right side is conversely one of the best out there with Pedroia and AGON.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    At this point the sox 2012 team should look like this:

    crawford
    pedroia
    gonzalez
    ellsbury
    youk
    ortiz
    quentin
    salty/larvarnway
    scutaro


    beckett
    lester
    oswalt
    buchholz
    bard (i would not make him a starter but apparently the sox do)


    bailey
    jenks
    melancon
    gonzalez (mike)
    aceves
    albers
    morales/dubront

    another guy who could make an impact in the pen is junichi tazawa.



     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    That's a good point, and in some respects puts the CERA argument for debate. If you take a catcher and say you get to catch Hall of Famer Steve Carlton every start and then you catch 10 other games, the regular starting catcher now is minus his starts with the best pitcher on his staff and may have his entire CERA affected due to never getting to catch a team's premier ace or No. 2. That doesn't take away from bulpen, other starters, but it does adversely affect a CERA one way or the other for the 2 catchers. If I'm caddying Verlander every start and someone else is catching 4 other starters, I'm going to get a 100 percent chance that my CERA is better than the other catcher. On Salty, you're right, moon, really by him not getting opportunities to catch Beckett, it did hurt him. 

    That's why the best way to use CERA is not by looking at the overall CERA, but rather take each individual pitcher and compare how each catcher did with them. Some sample sizes are too small to compare, so that is why the stat is highly restrictive and only useful to use when 2 catchers catch certain pitchers close to an equal amount of innings.

    See how Salty did when he caught the same pitchers VTek caught. I did a pitcher by pitcher analysis and found that 8 pitchers did better VTek, 4 were close to even, and 4 did better with Salty. 

    At the same time, Salty may have sped the Wakefield can't be relied talk as people really have no idea how much the basically rookie catcher hurt Tim's performances with his inability to catch him, especially in the 2nd half of t.he season. 

    It's not easy for even some veteran catchers to catch Wake, but Salty was about the worst next to maybe Bard.

    Forget about CERA for a moment, and realize that catchers can be poor enough to really throw a pitcher's chance to win or chance to be fully effective for a loop. A good catcher, a mistake-free type catcher, can enhance the same. As for calling games, maybe the best SPs in baseball can throw to anyone, but most of the starters in MLB need some help behind that dish--whether it's a strong throwing arm to cut down runners stealing, calling a game that reflects advanced scouting reports, or simply blocking the plate better.

    Even some of the beat pitchers do way better with certain catchers.
     
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