A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Sure or maybe wait until Spring Training starts.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It's pretty slow now, what's new to add?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    yes wait until Spring training. Day one
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Right now, Baseball Reference has us projected at $157.7M in payroll before the Papi deal. That puts us at close to $170-174M depending on his cost. Add the $2M for player pensions and we will be at about $172M-176M. 

    At best we will have about $6M to spend and not go over the tax limit.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The Red Sox turnover will be watched closely, according to this piece from MLB.com columnist Mike Bauman:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111223&content_id=26230482

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Nice article. Thanks for the link.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    You are right on Hardy Moon. I didn't realize that he was consistently a top Range factor guy the past 3-4 years. He was a heck of a pick up for the Orioles. Wish we had him!
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


     Once he got healthy, from June 1 to the end of the year; 28HR 68 RBI and raised his BA 30 points to finish at .269. Oriole announcers had him as O's MVP, and one of the very best players in the AL.
      I always liked JJ. It was a nice pick-up by the O's.
     (About $28M/4 is slightly more than the yearly rate we paid for Scutty)
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I




     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I



    Merry

    Christmas
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I



    Merry

    Christmas
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I



    Merry Christimas guys, and a healthy, prosperous New Year filled with Red Sox wins.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Merry Christmas, moon.

    Happy Holidays to all.


     

    Still my favorite Christmas card.

    But I digress.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Good one summer!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!  Am in Maine for the holidays so haven't been on much lately.  The ground was bare when I arrived but several small storms have left a white Christmas.  I forgot how cold it gets here but Maine will always be in my heart.  So the coaching staff is now complete.  Wondering if we will get a pitcher from Chicago--that whole thing is certainly in slow motion.  My best to you all...
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Hey Crit, glad you got back to Maine. I almost went home for Christmas, but took my family to Flagstaff for some snow and skiing and siteseeing instead. Stay warm! Happy New Year!
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I hope everyone had a great Christmas!

    Be safe.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Our 2012 Red Sox as of now...

    C: Salty-Shoppach-Lava-Exposito-Swihart-Vazquez
    DH: Papi-Lava-Youk
    1B: AGon-Salty-Lava-Papi-Andeson
    2B: Pedey-Aviles-Punto-Tejada-Coyle
    3B: Youk-(Scutaro)-Aviles-PuntoMiddlebrooks-Cecchini-Vitek
    SS: Scut-Aviles-Punto-Igglesias-Bogaerts-Vinicio
    LF: Craw-DMac-Lava-Punto-Aviles- Sweeney
    CF: Ellsb-DMac-Sweeney-Kalish
    RF: Sweeney-DMac-Kalish
        OF:Linares-Lin-Nava-Brentz-Jacobs-Bradley-Hassan-Ramos-Hazelbaker

    SP: Beck-Lest-Buch-(Dice)-(Lack)-Bard (RP?)-Aceves (RP?)-
            -Wilson-Ranaudo-Barnes-Britton-Pimentel
          -Owens-Kukuk-Workman-Montas-Ramirez
    Pen: Bailey-Melancon-Jenks-Doubront- Tazawa- Albers- Miller-
            Morales-Bowden-Atchison
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Isnt it safe to say that Bard will now be a starter?
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)

      (ARBs in Red)

    Papi           $_____ ($12.5M in '11/ accepted arb offer for '12)

    Salty          $_____  ($750K/ 1st Arb  out of 3 years)

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia       $6.7M

    Scutaro      $6M 

     

    Aviles        $____  ($640K/ 1st Arb  out of  3 years)

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $ _____ ($2.4M in ‘11/2nd Arb. year out of 3)

    Sweeney   $_____  ($1.4M in '11/ 2nd of 3 arbs) 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Bard          $____  ($505K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years)

    Aceves      $____  ($650K/ 1st Arb of 3 years)

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $____ ($465K in '11/1st of 3 arbs)

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Atchison   $_____ ($454K, then prearb and 3 arb years)

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $_____ ($424K/1st of 3 arbs) 

     

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $126.4M (16 players)

    Plus 10 arb players

    Plus 14 nonarb players 

     


    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Isnt it safe to say that Bard will now be a starter?
    Posted by BurritoT


    Probably... or Aceves (or both).

    (I will edit)
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    You can take Weiland off that list.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    You can take Weiland off that list.
    Posted by parhunter1

    Ooops! It was from an old post and I edited it. I'll make the change...thanks.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $126.4M (16 players)

    Plus 14 nonarb players ($14 x ~$450K= $6.3M)

    New Total: $133M

    Add $2-9M for player benefits (I can't find anything, but have heard these 2 numbers).

    New Luxury Tax Total: $135M to $142M

    Now the Arbs or pre-arb signings: (I admit I am not an expert on predicting arbs)

    Papi ($12.5M) to  $10M-$14M depending on length of deal

    Ellsb ($2.4M)  to  $8-10M (2nd of 3 arbs)

    Sweeney ($1.4M) to $1.5-2.5M (2nd of 3 arbs)

    Bailey  ($465K) to $1.5M-3M (1st of 3 arbs)

    Salty  ($750K) to   $2-3.5M  (1st of 3)

    Aceves ($650K) to $2-4M)   (1st of 3)

    Bard    ($505K) to  $2-4M    (1st of 3)

    Aviles   ($640) to   $1-1.25M  (1st of 3)

    DMac   ($470) to    $750K-1M (1st of 3)

    Morales ($424M) to $500K-750KM  (1st of 3)

    Total arb cost: $29M to 43M (I'll go with about $36M)

    Grand Total Luxury Tax Payroll Budget: $171-178M

    Right at the limit if the player pension benefit is $9M, and ~$7M to spend if it is $2M).

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Does anyone gives us hints of Keith Law's ESPN Insider rankings of the starting rotations and bullpens?

    Here is a Seattle blogger's rankings of Top 10 starting rotations in 2012 and in 2014-15:

    http://prospectinsider.com/view/top-10-mlb:-rotations/
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    hill,

       What's your take on this situation:

    We have 8 opening day locks for the staff barring injury or trade(s):
    Beck, Lest, Buch, Bard, Aceves, Bailey, Melan & Jenks
    That leaves 4 slots, but we have 5 guys with no ptions left:
    Doubront
    Morales
    Albers
    Atchison
    Bowden
    Plus we have A. Miller (nonguaranteed contract) and Tazawa (2 options)

    I like Tazwa to make the opening day roster, so we may have just 2-3 slots for the 5 guys listed above. Do you think any are worth anything in trade? Is it possible some team would team 3 for 1? (If yes, anyone in mind?) How about a trade of Sweeney, Atchison and Bowden for a better RP or a RP and a RH'd RF'er?

    I know us Sox fans tend to overvalue our prospects, but are these gusy worth anything?
     
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