A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Someone is going to land Pujols or Fielder. Fielder is just 27 and coming into his prime. He just noted to reporters that he is receptive to becoming a DH. Anything is possible, and after last year the Sox might just want to make a big splash again...and the guy with the best belly flop in the league right now is Fielder. As great as it would be to add him though, the fit is not ideal. I'm just saying it's possible. They have cleared room for the guys they want before.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    Yeah, I can just hear it now. Fielder doesn't have 20 more rbi's than originaly projected and forever gets labeled the "Fat-Fatty" in Boston. He'll never live it down and instantly becomes the new worst FA signing ever. Jackie macMullen sticks around an extra fourth day in the clubhouse to document his diet.

    Can't wait...
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    But, do you really think Papi is worth $10M+ to be a platoon DH who might never play another game in the field and who has to sit in NL parks?

    I think when you consider the benefits of using Youk at DH quite a bit, and allow to AGon to "rest" at DH, and lavarnway's tenuous catching position skills, I think the balance tips towards letting Papi walk, or at most offering him a one year deal of $10M for 2012 with a $8M 2013 option  deal with a $1-2M buyout.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Time4Theo2Go. Show Time4Theo2Go's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Lavarnway's catching skills are tenuous?

    Well, we can't all be wet noodle Jason Varitek.

    I could steal 2B on Varitek walking on my hands.

    As for Ortiz, here we go again. I said this two years ago that Ortiz has to be moved when he has some value to another MLB team. There are plenty of suitors for Big Papi in the AL. All we need is a competent GM to get the job done.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    But, do you really think Papi is worth $10M+ to be a platoon DH who might never play another game in the field and who has to sit in NL parks? I think when you consider the benefits of using Youk at DH quite a bit, and allow to AGon to "rest" at DH, and lavarnway's tenuous catching position skills, I think the balance tips towards letting Papi walk, or at most offering him a one year deal of $10M for 2012 with a $8M 2013 option  deal with a $1-2M buyout.
    Posted by moonslav59


    See, I'm thinking $8m for Papi, cause the last time I checked the most any other DH gets is around $5m.

    I can see where you're going with Youkilis as a DH. If it saves some wear and tear and gets him in 160 games instead of 120. He played 120 this year and had 80 rbi. Does 40 games at DH help the cause?  

    I don't know the whole story on Middlebooks ( one of the reasons I stop by here is to read-up on Boston's prospects ). I know the numbers he had in AA ( almost 100 games) were better than his AAA numbers ( under 20 games ) and that he's 6.4, 200 lbs and not yet 23 yrs old. Right away I would like to see how his spring goes next year. If he looks good, could he play 20-30 MLB games? Same with Iglesias. Could he play 20-30 games next year? Same with Lavarnway...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    But, do you really think Papi is worth $10M+ to be a platoon DH who might never play another game in the field and who has to sit in NL parks? I think when you consider the benefits of using Youk at DH quite a bit, and allow to AGon to "rest" at DH, and lavarnway's tenuous catching position skills, I think the balance tips towards letting Papi walk, or at most offering him a one year deal of $10M for 2012 with a $8M 2013 option  deal with a $1-2M buyout.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I do because 

    1) His new approach toward hitting lefties may carry over into coming seasons - we don't know for sure he would be a platoon bat, just worst-case scenario, it's hard to imagine he is a liability against righties in three years.  

    2) If his production does drop off against lefties, and he is still a top 20 bat against righties, that puts his value in the $10M range - that was true last year, when fangraphs put him at $10.4; in my mind, giving those at-bats to Lavarnway, who is dirt cheap by mlb standards adds to his value.  In a business sense, it's not just what Ortiz delivers that adds value to the team, it's how each piece fits together.  In other words, it's good business to pay Ortiz a couple of million to sit on the bench and watch Lavarnway rake against lefties, because it's a net value of more than you pay for your DH position.  I see the Crawford signing the same way - if we trade Ellsbury, we paid $20M for Crawford plus the opportunity for the return on Ellsbury, knowing that Kalish and Reddick would be part of the cost-effective outfield of the future.

    3) There are few figures in Red Sox history more deserving of a little something extra.  I think sometimes we get so caught up in the game behind the game, we forget how much Ortiz means to the average fan.

    4) I don't see Youk as a full or significant-time DH.  I don't think he'd be happy in that role - I think he would move to LF or request a trade before becoming a DH.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Slo, now you got me leaning back the other way. This is the toughest call in years.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Slo, now you got me leaning back the other way. This is the toughest call in years.
    Posted by moonslav59
    If Ortiz gets a three year deal it will not end well IMO. Not maybe, period. I don't ver recall the plan 2011 being to make Ortiz the platoon DH and further have who exactly would have gotten those ABs. Yes Lowrie kills LH but coming into the year he was their only back-up middle IF.

    Ortiz is not going to gracefully become a platoon player, not based on how reacted to be pinch hit for last year when he was like 2-35 versus LH in late April.

    Three years is way too long to hope Ortiz keeps up 3 more season like this one. That third year will be Posada like except Ortiz is less liely to take it as gracefully.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from tbrod. Show tbrod's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    That's true. When he was hitting .180 in 2009, he pouted and acted as though he was entitled to play every day, no matter how bad he was playing.
    He'll do this again, and he'll groan and moan on every strike any ump has the gall to call on him. He'll shuffle to first, unless he thinks he can get a hit.
    He'll complain to the writers and TV people.
    We'll have "should the Sox dump David Ortiz" on talk radio, 24/7.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : If Ortiz gets a three year deal it will not end well IMO. Not maybe, period. I don't ver recall the plan 2011 being to make Ortiz the platoon DH and further have who exactly would have gotten those ABs. Yes Lowrie kills LH but coming into the year he was their only back-up middle IF. Ortiz is not going to gracefully become a platoon player, not based on how reacted to be pinch hit for last year when he was like 2-35 versus LH in late April. Three years is way too long to hope Ortiz keeps up 3 more season like this one. That third year will be Posada like except Ortiz is less liely to take it as gracefully.
    Posted by fivekatz

    Well, Moon's idea has the buyout on the third year.  I think that gives Ortiz some respect and the Sox some flexibility, both with Ortiz and the luxury tax.  


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'd like to see a lot of incentive clauses, some that are easy to reach. this would protect the club in case he declines sharply. Something like this:

    2012:
    $8M base + $500K for a .900+ OPS, another $500K for .950, and another 500K for .975+, another $500K for 500 PAs, $500K for 600 PAs, and $500K for 25+ Hrs. If he reaches all goals like he did in 2011, he'd make $11M.

    2013:
    $6M base plus each incentive earned in 2012 added to the base (meaning his 2013 base could be $9M). Keep the same incentive as 2012 for 2013.

    2014:
    $6M base (no add ons to base) with $2M buy out and same incentives. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Warning: Small Sample Sizes Yes, Bard had a poor September, but... 3 IP in playoffs: 0 hits 0 runs 2010: about a 2.00 ERA in Aug/Sept combined. 2010: .494 OPS against in High Leverage situations (.793 in Low) 2010: .459 Late & Close (PAs after the 7th Inning with at least the tying run on deck) Bard Career:  2.88 ERA and .582 OPS against. Late & Close: .555 High leverage: .575 Papelbon Career: 2.33 ERA and .574 OPS against (nearly identicle to Bard's) Late & Close: .539 High Leverage: .560 Cost the next 3 years: Papelbon: $39-45M D. Bard:     $8-12M (via arbs)
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon - Thanks for the numbers on 2010. What about 2011?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    I'd like to see a lot of incentive clauses, some that are easy to reach. this would protect the club in case he declines sharply. Something like this: 2012: $8M base + $500K for a .900+ OPS, another $500K for .950, and another 500K for .975+, another $500K for 500 PAs, $500K for 600 PAs, and $500K for 25+ Hrs. If he reaches all goals like he did in 2011, he'd make $11M. 2013: $6M base plus each incentive earned in 2012 added to the base (meaning his 2013 base could be $9M). Keep the same incentive as 2012 for 2013. 2014: $6M base (no add ons to base) with $2M buy out and same incentives. 
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon - We all like Ortiz, but the big problem with Ortiz moving forward is his inability to play the field. Having him as a full time DH prevents guys like Youkilis, Gonzalez, Lavarnway (possibly) and other position players to have a day off as a DH. It also becomes a wasted roster sport in Interleague play on the road.
    His numbers are there, but he's:

    1. Getting Older
    2. Didn't produce anything in September 2011
    3. Can't play the field.
    4. Prevents other position players from DH'ing.
    5. Clogs up the bases with his lack of speed.
    6. Saves the company a ton of money by letting him walk.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : moon - We all like Ortiz, but the big problem with Ortiz moving forward is his inability to play the field. Having him as a full time DH prevents guys like Youkilis, Gonzalez, Lavarnway (possibly) and other position players to have a day off as a DH. It also becomes a wasted roster sport in Interleague play on the road. His numbers are there, but he's: 1. Getting Older 2. Didn't produce anything in September 2011 3. Can't play the field. 4. Prevents other position players from DH'ing. 5. Clogs up the bases with his lack of speed. 6. Saves the company a ton of money by letting him walk.
    Posted by ADG

    This is all true (except he had 4 or 5 just-missed HRs in Sept, any one of which would have brought his OPS over .800) but I think you're under-estimating his bat.  Whether it's Youk or Lowrie or Lavarnway, you're going to have a drop of at least 100 OPS against righties, which means 3 of 4 games.  And if that 4th game is close late, you have his bat and the threat of his bat on the bench.

    Also, if the next manager is my pick Dominican hero Tony Pena, you won't hear a peep from Papi if used in a platoon role.  If Papi gets back to smiling happy Papi, that's a huge boost for club-house morale.


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Warning: Small Sample Sizes Yes, Bard had a poor September, but... 3 IP in playoffs: 0 hits 0 runs 2010: about a 2.00 ERA in Aug/Sept combined. 
    2010: .494 OPS against in High Leverage situations (.793 in Low) 2010: .459 Late & Close (PAs after the 7th Inning with at least the tying run on deck) 
    Bard Career:  2.88 ERA and .582 OPS against. Late & Close: .555 High leverage: .575 
    Papelbon Career: 2.33 ERA and .574 OPS against (nearly identicle to Bard's) Late & Close: .539 High Leverage: .560 
    Cost the next 3 years: Papelbon: $39-45M D. Bard:     $8-12M (via arbs)
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon - Thanks for the numbers on 2010. What about 2011?

    I gave 2010 and career numbers, here is 2011:

    Bard:
    3.33 ERA  &  .546 OPS against  (0.959 WHIP-best in career)

    Late & Close: .557 OPS against
    High Leverage: .621

    Papelbon:
    2.94 &  ..546 OPS against (exactly the same as Bard) (0.933 WHIP)
    Late & Close: .504
    High Leverage: .546

    Papelbon was slightly better, but it was closer than many might have expected. 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : moon - We all like Ortiz, but the big problem with Ortiz moving forward is his inability to play the field. Having him as a full time DH prevents guys like Youkilis, Gonzalez, Lavarnway (possibly) and other position players to have a day off as a DH. It also becomes a wasted roster sport in Interleague play on the road. His numbers are there, but he's: 
    1. Getting Older 
    2. Didn't produce anything in September 2011 
    3. Can't play the field. 
    4. Prevents other position players from DH'ing. 
    5. Clogs up the bases with his lack of speed. 
    6. Saves the company a ton of money by letting him walk.
    Posted by ADG

    All valid points. It will still be hard to repalce his numbers at DH. We'll need to upgrade the offense elsewhere or improve our staff enough to make up for the loss.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    After close inspection of the Sox issues, here's what I suggest the Sox do:
    1. Get rid of most of the old guard--Varitek, Wakefield (I love him, but he is better suited now as a NL SP, not a wait for guys to get injured No. 6), Ortiz (it's time to part ways). Drew too.
    2. Sign Papelbon even if they feel they have overspent (no such thing since Lackey/CC in my opinion). 
    3. Get rid of Reddick, McDonald, Jackson, and look for a real RF full-time. Hope Kalish can be the 4th OF.
    4. Since they can't get rid of CC, he plays fulltime in LF and bats either No. 2 or No. 9. No exceptions. If his average plummets below .200 through 1st two months, I suggest he invest in Bobby Valentine Groucho moustache and long coat.
    5. Get rid of Salty, start Lavarnway and purchase Ramon Hernandez as the other catcher.
    6. Buy out Lackey...to me, just end this marriage...give him 25 million and say thanks but no thanks for the other 3 years.
    7. Name Bill Bellichick manager. He's got a great offense and no defense, sort of like the Sox, except he can win with that.
    8. Fire Curt Young, fire the entire medical staff, fire Tim Bogar, basically no coaches return....none of Tito's crew returns.


     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : All valid points. It will still be hard to repalce his numbers at DH. We'll need to upgrade the offense elsewhere or improve our staff enough to make up for the loss.
    Posted by moonslav59
    Things are seldom as easy a decision as JD Drew will be.

    The RS will have the best closer and the best DH as walk away FAs. It will be about age, valuations and what the market will dictate with these guys. It is almost always how it works with the RS, who over the course of most contracts have shown they are pretty good at attaching values to their own guys over life of contract.

    Yes Ortiz will cost the best offense in baseball some run production. Bard slipping into Papelbon's role and Bard's role being empty could well cause as many or more problems for the bullpen.

    These won't be easy calls but the RS couldn't score their way to 90 plus wins this year. Seems to me if Ortiz cost them 35 runs it might not be as great as if losing Papelbon cost them and having a lesser hold guy cost them 8-10 games.

    The trick is how each is replaced. Sluggers are always ranked very high in fans minds and closers IMO aren't truly appreciated until you have one that fails.

    But if you could sign Papelbon 3 for $42M or it takes 3 for $36M to keep Ortiz, while I don't have the market cornered on wisdom, I would bet on the Papelbon from 31-33 rather than Ortiz in 36-39.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    danny, that's a lot on one plate.

    I do think Wake would do better in the NL, but he'd also be fine in some AL spots too. He would prefer to return here, even as a 6th starter, but it might not be up to him.

    I don't like CC up 2nd, except maybe vs RHPs only. He should be benched vs LHPs, but 9th is about the best I can hope for.

    The more I think about Salty, I agree. He's not our answer. A Hernandez/Lava combo might work fine, but it will be costly.

    I'm with you on axing the coaches.

    I want Jim Leyland here.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    After close inspection of the Sox issues, here's what I suggest the Sox do: 1. Get rid of most of the old guard--Varitek, Wakefield (I love him, but he is better suited now as a NL SP, not a wait for guys to get injured No. 6), Ortiz (it's time to part ways). Drew too. 2. Sign Papelbon even if they feel they have overspent (no such thing since Lackey/CC in my opinion).  3. Get rid of Reddick, McDonald, Jackson, and look for a real RF full-time. Hope Kalish can be the 4th OF. 4. Since they can't get rid of CC, he plays fulltime in LF and bats either No. 2 or No. 9. No exceptions. If his average plummets below .200 through 1st two months, I suggest he invest in Bobby Valentine Groucho moustache and long coat. 5. Get rid of Salty, start Lavarnway and purchase Ramon Hernandez as the other catcher. 6. Buy out Lackey...to me, just end this marriage...give him 25 million and say thanks but no thanks for the other 3 years. 7. Name Bill Bellichick manager. He's got a great offense and no defense, sort of like the Sox, except he can win with that. 8. Fire Curt Young, fire the entire medical staff, fire Tim Bogar, basically no coaches return....none of Tito's crew returns.
    Posted by dannycater
    Shocked to see you say cut bait with Wake. Just wow!

    You can kind of bet the farm that most of the coaches don't return, a new guy will want a new crew. When Tito came Papa Jack was considered a genius and Wallace had made a lot of sacrifices to come to Boston when they were in a jam.  For slightly different reasons I'd guess that the new manager will be encouraged to keep Mags and Tuck. But Bogar, Johnson, Young and Hale are probably all gone with various merit or lack there of.

    I've posted a lot that I don't think Papelbon or Ortiz are simple yes or no decisions and why. Just like that situation I think rushing Lavarnway up is no the wisest long term move. This kid could be McCann like and under the RS control for 6 years or be rushed to service and at best be a low cost DH at worst a train wreck. Even the Padres who aren't under the microscope like the RS are found out when they rushed Rizzo up, that small AAA and microscopic MLB stats don't hold up very long.

    Not sure why they'd trade Reddick, he isn't going be a headliner and he has options.

    But non-tender Wake, wow!

    BTW to all - if leyland was the RS skipper tonight, he'd be being blasted by a lot folks on BDC.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    danny has often mentioned Wake going to another club, but mostly out of the disrespect shown to him by Theo and Tito. He wants what's best for Wake, and realizes that the Sox don't think enough of Wake to want him as anything more than a 6/7 slot starter next year with mop-up duty on the side. 

    I'd love to see what Wake could do with a club that would start him 25 games next year. I'm sure if he goes 14-8, we'll hear excuses like the "NL is AAAA".
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    danny has often mentioned Wake going to another club, but mostly out of the disrespect shown to him by Theo and Tito. He wants what's best for Wake, and realizes that the Sox don't think enough of Wake to want him as anything more than a 6/7 slot starter next year with mop-up duty on the side.  I'd love to see what Wake could do with a club that would start him 25 games next year. I'm sure if he goes 14-8, we'll hear excuses like the "NL is AAAA".
    Posted by moonslav59
    I get it, and even more so when you put it in that context it still was a surprise. I am not either as down on him as one faction or as quick to keep going back to his per-injury 2009 splits and blame, luck, Salty and the manager for his last two seasons either.

    My question would be if Wake will want at his age to keep playing in another city or just hang it up. Does he have "Billy Chapel" "love of the game" and win 200 in the absence of chasing Cy and Roger was his "perfect game moment" or does he just want to keep on playing.

    He'll get to make that call IMO because someone will sign him but if he went 14-8 my guess is his run support would be off the charts. The NL won't cover the ease of stealing off of him, the passed ball/wild pitch issues that come with arguably the most live knuckleball ever or that he has more stayed up in the zone the last two years than he used to.

    I'd have few issues if with any if the RS brought him back in rover role myself aside from how much energy seems to go into the pros and cons on BDC. For all you have tried Moon, almost to the extreme of appearing an apologist for Tim, few people get that he has had value to the RS in the role, even after seeing just any kid from AAA isn't necessarily better.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon - I am always interested in your take on things. Last year you felt that NY would continue to age and with it, their skills may decline a bit, maybe even taking them out of contention. How do you see NY moving forward? Even I cannot be as optimistic about what Garcia and Colon can do moving forward.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Things are seldom as easy a decision as JD Drew will be. The RS will have the best closer and the best DH as walk away FAs. It will be about age, valuations and what the market will dictate with these guys. It is almost always how it works with the RS, who over the course of most contracts have shown they are pretty good at attaching values to their own guys over life of contract. Yes Ortiz will cost the best offense in baseball some run production. Bard slipping into Papelbon's role and Bard's role being empty could well cause as many or more problems for the bullpen. These won't be easy calls but the RS couldn't score their way to 90 plus wins this year. Seems to me if Ortiz cost them 35 runs it might not be as great as if losing Papelbon cost them and having a lesser hold guy cost them 8-10 games. The trick is how each is replaced. Sluggers are always ranked very high in fans minds and closers IMO aren't truly appreciated until you have one that fails. But if you could sign Papelbon 3 for $42M or it takes 3 for $36M to keep Ortiz, while I don't have the market cornered on wisdom, I would bet on the Papelbon from 31-33 rather than Ortiz in 36-39.
    Posted by fivekatz

    Well put, and with Lava looking more like a DH than a catcher for 2012 anyways, and Youk looking for a breather, I think the Paps over Papi choice is looking better and better.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I get it, and even more so when you put it in that context it still was a surprise. I am not either as down on him as one faction or as quick to keep going back to his per-injury 2009 splits and blame, luck, Salty and the manager for his last two seasons either.

    I'm not sure Wake can approach pre mid2009 numbers again, but he showed some good stuff his first 15 starts this year.

    My question would be if Wake will want at his age to keep playing in another city or just hang it up. Does he have "Billy Chapel" "love of the game" and win 200 in the absence of chasing Cy and Roger was his "perfect game moment" or does he just want to keep on playing. 

    I think Wake wants to play. I think he'd prefer to be assured he has a rotation slot on a team he'd enjoy playing for than coming back here as a 7th starter/mop-up guy trying for Roger's record. He does love Boston though.

    He'll get to make that call IMO because someone will sign him but if he went 14-8 my guess is his run support would be off the charts. The NL won't cover the ease of stealing off of him, the passed ball/wild pitch issues that come with arguably the most live knuckleball ever or that he has more stayed up in the zone the last two years than he used to. 

    I  think any team who signs him, will have a catcher who can catch the knuckleball better than Salty. The CS% rate vs Wake was rather high this year (like 50%). Wake has had 2 years now with a super low BB/9 rate. I think he can go 14-8 with moderate run support, as long as he has a good catcher and defense behind him. I'm not projecting 14-8, but think he still has the potential in him.

    I'd have few issues if with any if the RS brought him back in rover role myself aside from how much energy seems to go into the pros and cons on BDC. For all you have tried Moon, almost to the extreme of appearing an apologist for Tim, few people get that he has had value to the RS in the role, even after seeing just any kid from AAA isn't necessarily better.

    What has bothered me most about all the Wake bashing is that he has filled the role of 6/7 starter very well comparatively speaking, and at a low cost. He has not been the same since the injury in 2009, but since he put up very good numbers from ages 40-42, I have held out hope that he can again.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Moon - I am always interested in your take on things. Last year you felt that NY would continue to age and with it, their skills may decline a bit, maybe even taking them out of contention. How do you see NY moving forward? Even I cannot be as optimistic about what Garcia and Colon can do moving forward.
    Posted by jesseyeric

    1) I always try hard to be objective with my Yanks analysis. I have been wrong so many times with them. I don;t think I was alone in thinking their starting pitching had major holes this year. Colon and garcia were shockingly good, but Hughes was a downer.

    2) Age: ARod and Jete showed their age a bit this year, but Mo keeps on going. Posada is done.  The Yanks seemed to pick up the slack for these guys. (Chavez, Martin, and a bustout Grandy year).

    3) Going forward? 
    Free agents:
    Posada ($13M) easy upgrade here.
    Chavez ($1.5M) could be back
    Garcia ($1.5M) not easy to bring back or replace.
    A.Jones ($1.5M) easy to replace.
    Colon ($900K) Not easy.
    Mitre ($900K) Easy
    Ayala ($650K) Easy

    ARod gets older and has a bum hip. I gotta think they want him to start DHing more now that Jorge is gone. That means they need a quality 3Bman back-up and I'm not sure Chavez can be that guy.

    I get a lot of grief for my position on Jeter's fielding, but as a Sox fan, I'm glad they keep putting him out there. They guy can hit and seems to make the plays when they need 'em, so what can i say.

    I think Swisher is back at $10,25M option. Cano is a no brainer option at $14M.

    I like Gardner. Maybe Grandy might come down a notch, but Swish could take up that slack.

    Their offense will be top 3 again, but they need to work on their staff. I can't really make a call until i see who they get, but if they repeat the Colon/Garcia miracle again this year, Cashman deserves GM of the Year honors. It truly was a miracle.

    PS  I like your takes on things as well.


     
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