Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I
posted at 1/12/2012 10:50 PM EST
Call me crazy Moon, but I still think DiceK will pick up some very important innings before the season is over; maybe take some heat off of Aceves and Bard as they transition to starter durability. If the three of them ( Brad, Aceves & Dice) combine for 400 innings, and we get close to 600 from the front three, the bull pen will be less taxed, by a wide margin, than it was last year.
I could see Dice-K coming back and allowing Bard or Aceves to rest then return to the pen. That would help a lot.
I don't think of myself as a pessimist, but I seriously doubt our top 3 will get over 550 IP.
I also realize that Wake & Lackey went deeper in games than anyone else except Beckett and Lester. Replacing Miller (12 starts), Weiland (5 starts), and Bedard (8 starts) IP per starts with Bard and Aceves might be OK, but I doubt they will go deeper than Wake (23 starts) and Lackey (28 starts). Now, doing much better than Lackey and Wake is not hard, and so not going as deep may not be as important, if we are up by 2 more runs when they leave the game in the 4th or 5th inning instead of the 6th or 7th.
I'm OK with 'the plan", but I'd much rather have one more quality innings eater in the rotation allowing Bard or Aceves to stay in the pen or share stretches of starting and relief. I don't think we can get that type of starter via free agency, and I'm not too thrilled with the choices. I want us to stay under the cap, and I think a trade is the only way we can do both. I've talked about trading Scutaro to free up payroll space and gain on defense at the same time. I've talked about offering Jenks to the Cubs as comp for Theo (not likely). I've talked about trying to get Floyd, Jurjjens, or Wandy, but I'm sure there may be other choices. I do not like trading our top prospects after already losing Kelly, Rizzo and a few lesser ones recently, but I think we can spare Middlebrooks, because we have Cecchini and Bogaerts to take over for Youk in 2014. I'm not a huge fan of Ranaudo, but realize he could turn out to be better than what we may trade him for. If we could trade Scutaro (maybe to ATL or DET) for a prospect, and then flip that prospect with Middlebrooks, Swihart and Bowden to get Gavin Floyd, we could probably also afford Cody Ross and stay under the cap. I'd be really pyched over this opening day 25 (with Dice-K joining in June/July).
Bailey-Melancon-Aceves/Bard-Morales-Albers-Doubront-Atchison (Jenks starts on DL)
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