A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    How much is Ortiz really worth to the Sox?

    Even if he repeats his 2011 numbers, consider what we could get for $12.65M to $16M in the free agent market or via trades now or in July.

    Then consider the drop off and benefits of these factors:

    1) Roster flexibility, especially in NL parks (No DH and no place to play Papi)

    2) Rotated DH position to rest players and improve the odds of better health and more production, maybe something like this:
      Youk: 100 games at 3B and 50 at C.
      Lava: 100 games at DH and 30 at C.
      AGon, Pedey, Ells and others: 2-4 games at DH to rest.

    3) Improved fielding at 3B when Youk DHs.

    4) Ability to PH for Salty (vs LHPs) and Shopp (vs RHPs) without concern for the back-up catcher getting injured, since Lava could cover.

    5) One less player dogging it down the line, showboating HRs, and squaking to the media.

    6) Very little chance that the players playing instead of papi will repeat his 2011 offensive numbers, but they may not do as badly as many feel they will. The real offensive tradeoff would be:
      100 gms by Lava
        50 gms by Aviles/Punto at 3B for Youk
        12 games by others 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It's all about the money to me ( regarding Ortiz ). I'm agreeing with everything you said above Moon but the main reason is we apparently need the money...badly. We talked about all the advantages that Ortiz leaving represented
    earlier this winter. I really thought he would turn down arb but I wasn't aware of his interpersonal situation. The FO needed to really know where Ortiz was coming from and be able to anticipate what he would do. To me, they messed up but if he can be released it wasn't that much of a risk. Would not offering him arb and risking him leaving have been a better option. In hindsight probably yes IMO.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Fangraphs has a decent article on our OF situation ( another area which probably will cost us some cash going forward ):


    Marlon Byrd? That would sound like a decent option for us to me.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    It's all about the money to me ( regarding Ortiz ). I'm agreeing with everything you said above Moon but the main reason is we apparently need the money...badly. We talked about all the advantages that Ortiz leaving represented earlier this winter. I really thought he would turn down arb but I wasn't aware of his interpersonal situation. The FO needed to really know where Ortiz was coming from and be able to anticipate what he would do. To me, they messed up but if he can be released it wasn't that much of a risk. Would not offering him arb and risking him leaving have been a better option. In hindsight probably yes IMO.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    They must have known what he wanted, and so, roughly what he'd ask for in arb. They must have misjudged in one of these areas:

    1) They might have thought he would not accept arb. because somone would sign him.
    2) They might have thought he'd as for $14M in arb.

    They might also have valued his fan following and any backlash they might have gotten by "disrespecting" the great hero.

    It's not really fair to blame the whole financial situation on the Papi issue, and I know you are not doing this, boom. The CC and Lackey deals are worse than this. Papi's bat will probably help a lot this year. Replacing it with Lava and Aviles (when Youk DHs) is likely to be a steep decline; certainly not $16M worth, but still something.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    There were a few times at the end of last year when I thought Papi actually looked "old" on the bases, and his slides are pathetic and I've been waiting for him to get hurt there for a long time.  Look, I love Papi and all he's done, but I think we get too sentimental for our players.  BB wouldn't have any trouble getting rid of him.  I think we sometimes forget how much these guys make; it's hard to feel sorry for them.  I agree Moon, he is not the source of our present financial situation but he is a possible relief.

    Latest news seems to be that Scut has been traded as several here have projected.  I think this means Iggy is actually coming up.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Not trying to toot my own horn, but I have been saying for weeks and weeks that trading Scutaro made the most sense to clear some salary space. The salary space is more important than the return we got. We could have ley Scutaro walk and paid $1.5M. This was we save the $1.5M and get a prospect as well.

    I wish Marco the best. He was a gutsy player that rose to the occasion more often than not. 

    Thank you Marco and good luck.  
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Not trying to toot my own horn, but I have been saying for weeks and weeks that trading Scutaro made the most sense to clear some salary space. The salary space is more important than the return we got. We could have ley Scutaro walk and paid $1.5M. This was we save the $1.5M and get a prospect as well. I wish Marco the best. He was a gutsy player that rose to the occasion more often than not.  Thank you Marco and good luck.  
    Posted by moonslav59


     So now it's Oswalt or Ross. I'm in the minority I'm sure, but I'd skip Roy and take Cody. The rotation is fine, (on paper) Beckett, Lester, Buch, and or Bard, Aceves, who have to better than John Wayne Lackey and Dice-K last year. Cody gives us the RH bat we need and fills the Crawford wrist injury hole too.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'll miss Scutaro but the finances became out of control as Moonslav foresaw a year ago. It is good for baseball that the lixury tax penalties are accomplishing their intended mission to bring parity back to MLB. It is good that spending by the Yankees and Boston has a limit now. Kudos to RSNs, new rich owners, the draft system, since baseball should be America's pasttime no matter where you were born or reside. That is the way that is was it was ( excluding the Yankees) in my early years.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

     Ross hits mostly balls to left and straight away center, I just overlayed his hit chart from AT&T stadium last year on top of Fenway, and found that he would have hit 14 HR's in 198 AB's...the guy is dangerous.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I would love Cody Ross here this year (esp. with CC out for a while), but still think finding a #4 starter is priority #1. I'm not high on Oswalt at $6-8M, but he's better than what we have already. 

    Yes, Bard, Aceves and the best of Silva, Cook, Padilla, Miller and Doubront are probably better that what we had last year with Lackey, Wake, Miller, Bedard, Dice, Weiland and Aceves, but our whole staff looks way better with a legitimate solid innings-eater 4 slot guy and keeping Bard and/or Aceves in the pen.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    'll miss Scutaro but the finances became out of control as Moonslav foresaw a year ago. 

    It wasn't rocket sciense, but I was surprised at how much grief I took for pointing out our tight finances after wesigned CC, and extended AGon and Buch. I'll miss Scutty too. He had a great attitude, was a Yankee killer, and played his heart out every game.  

    It is good for baseball that the lixury tax penalties are accomplishing their intended mission to bring parity back to MLB. It is good that spending by the Yankees and Boston has a limit now.

    We really always did. We've been near the tax limit for a long time now. It just makes sense to stay a bit under this year to set ourselves up nicely for the big FA year next winter.

     Kudos to RSNs, new rich owners, the draft system, since baseball should be America's pasttime no matter where you were born or reside. That is the way that is was it was ( excluding the Yankees) in my early years.

    We will stay competitive and then drop over $30M next winter. I like our outlook, even though 2012 might be rough if we have a few injuries.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

     Ross has played a lot of games in Center, we could slide Ells over to left...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Good to see Bard in the fold.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I was a big Scutaro fan, offensively; he was a tough out, ran the bases well and delivered in the clutch. But defensively he was a liability, and if this trade does nothing more than insert Iglesias into our everyday lineup then we have improved our PITCHING staff immensely! I know that Moon has run numbers about hits saved versus hits achieved and I agree with them, although I'm an eyeball guy not a stats guy. If this kid comes as advertised then let him shore up our infield defense while he learns to hit.  Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel couldn't hit when they first came up and they certainly did not hurt their teams. With Punto and Aviles we have depth to hit for him in late game situations if needed, and we have plenty of offense to carry a weak stick at short. As for this also freeing up money to sign another pitcher or to find a right-handed hitting outfielder, that's fine with me too. But the real upside to this move should be to hand Iglesias the job for the next ten years or so, starting NOW!
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, I was just going to say you're amazing sometimes.  Yes, you have been calling this trade for weeks as you have in the past.  It always amazes me when reality catches up with our projections here.  I think this means Iggy must come up as the other two have not even played a full year for a while.  I've had a chance to watch Ross here in the Bay Area and I like him--he was a hero two years ago and comes to play every day.  However, I'd rather have a starter too.  I'm absolutely hoping one of those many rough possibilities works out--but I'd rather have a little more assurance.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Marco was a short-term solution, part of the Bridge 2010 gang. Cameron gone, Scutaro gone, Jeremy Hermida gone, Adrian Beltre gone, Ramon Ramirez gone, Bill Hall gone, Victor Martinez gone, Jed Lowrie gone, and John Lackey (not gone, but not here either in 2012). 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    By the way, Marco will always have the 8-for-11 hot streak ended on a mandatory rest by Francona (now gone too).
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I was a big Scutaro fan, offensively; he was a tough out, ran the bases well and delivered in the clutch. But defensively he was a liability, and if this trade does nothing more than insert Iglesias into our everyday lineup then we have improved our PITCHING staff immensely! I know that Moon has run numbers about hits saved versus hits achieved and I agree with them, although I'm an eyeball guy not a stats guy. If this kid comes as advertised then let him shore up our infield defense while he learns to hit.  Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel couldn't hit when they first came up and they certainly did not hurt their teams. With Punto and Aviles we have depth to hit for him in late game situations if needed, and we have plenty of offense to carry a weak stick at short. As for this also freeing up money to sign another pitcher or to find a right-handed hitting outfielder, that's fine with me too. But the real upside to this move should be to hand Iglesias the job for the next ten years or so, starting NOW!

    You know I have loved the idea of a great defensive SS for a long time, but I'm still not convinced this trade will automatically make Iggy the FT starter. Aviles and Punto are both capable enough to share the position, or Aviles could do it by himself. We could see Iggy be the late inning defensive replacement, instead of the starter who is PH for late in games. We could see Iggy start in AAA and be brought up early.

    My choice is well known: start Iggy and keep him there. Tell him not to worry about his bat, and that anything over .180 is fine (and secretly hope for .220+).  Our staff just got way better if Iggy starts. Youk can take a step to the line. Pitchers will gain confidence. I'm very happy. 

    Now, let's spend the money wisely.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, I was just going to say you're amazing sometimes.  Yes, you have been calling this trade for weeks as you have in the past.  It always amazes me when reality catches up with our projections here.  I think this means Iggy must come up as the other two have not even played a full year for a while.  I've had a chance to watch Ross here in the Bay Area and I like him--he was a hero two years ago and comes to play every day.  However, I'd rather have a starter too.  I'm absolutely hoping one of those many rough possibilities works out--but I'd rather have a little more assurance.

    Thanks Crit. Maybe somehow we can get a good starter and Cody Ross and stay under the limit. Ben is finding ways to improve this team without raising the payroll budget.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    By the way, Marco will always have the 8-for-11 hot streak ended on a mandatory rest by Francona (now gone too).

    That just about killed me. I don't think we'll see that from Bobby V.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Danny, your example above is why I used to raise my eyebrows at Tito sometimes.  I can remember Reddick having several big games in a row--then being taken out when he was the star of the previous game. Oh well, he's gone now and overall he did a great job.  Que sera sera.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from caseycsw. Show caseycsw's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Whatever the defensive upgrade, I doubt the Red Sox can handle a .200 batting average at the bottom of their lineup...It will hurt them too much when pitchers can pitch around an eighth place hitter to get an out with Iggy....I will be shocked if he becomes the regular Red Sox shortstop...I think that they will miss Scutaro, unless the Aviles/Punto platoon exceeds expectations...

    “Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living.”

    -          “Mother” Mary Harris Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) – 1930 (U.S.))

    “You see, until a few weeks ago, it seemed as if Wall Street had effectively bribed and bullied our political system into forgetting about that whole drawing lavish paychecks while destroying the world economy thing. Then, all of a sudden, some people insisted on bringing the subject up again. And their (Occupy Wall Street) outrage has found resonance with millions of Americans. No wonder Wall Street is whining.”

    -          Paul Krugman, Princeton economist, N.Y. Times column, 10/16/11


     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)

      (ARBs to go in Red)

    Papi           $_____ ($12.65M or $16M)

    Salty          $2.5M

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia      $6.7M

    Aviles        $1.2M

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $8.05M

    Sweeney   $1.75M 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Mortensen $_____ ($ ??)

    Bard          $1.625M

    Aceves      $____  ($900K or $1.6M)

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $____ ($3.35M or $4.7M)

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Atchison   $_____ ($454K, then prearb and 3 arb years)

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $ 850K 

    _______________________________________________ 

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $145M (21 players)

    Plus 16 nonarb players ($14 x ~$450K= $7.2M) 

    New Est. Total: $152.2M before 3 arbs

    Now the 3 Arbs left to sign:

    Papi $12.65M or $16M (or agree to a deal)

    Bailey  $3.35M or $4.7M (or agree to a deal)

    Aceves $900K or $1.6M (or agree to a deal)

    Assuming no side deal:

    Total arb cost: $ 16.9M to $22.3M

    I'm going to assume Bailey agrees to $4.1M before arb and Aceves gets $1.3M. That adds $5.4M and a new est total of $157.6M before Papi.

    If Papi gets $12.65M, the total is $170.3M. If Papi gets $16M, it's $173.6M. I'm hoping we can work something out with a 2013 team option/buyout that will lessen the tax hit for 2012, maybe something like this: 2012: $13M, '13 team option $11M with a $1.4M buyout. That makes the salary count as $14.4M/2 or a $7.2M AVV. Let's assume Papi agrees to a deal similar to my suggestion. Our new est budget... 


    Luxury Tax Payroll Budget Total: ~$164.8 (before player benefit payment).

    Now, add the player benefits. I have heard $2M and $9M. I'm not sure which one it is. 

     

    TOTAL:  ~$167M if the benefits payment is $2M.


                    ~$174M if it is $9M.


    That means we will probably have between $4 and 11M to spend. That number could come down if Lackey's deal is altered due to the injury clause. His AVV could go from $16.5 to $13.8M. (Subtract about $2.7M from our payroll budget for tax purposes). It could also go down if we cut Miller loose from his nonguaranteed 1.04M deal. I'm not sure how much he would get if we did so. There is also the option of cutting any player who wins their arb deal (Papi?), but let's assume that won't happen.

    If we only have $4M to spend, we might be able to get Cody Ross or another starter (Oswalt doubtful), but not both.

    If the number is $11M, we actually could probably get both Oswalt and Ross, leaving us with this 25 man roster:

    SP: Beckett, Lester, Buchholtz, Oswalt, Bard, Doubront (Dice-K in June-July)

    RP: Bailey, Melancon, Aceves, Morales, Albers, Tazawa (Jenks)

    C: Salty/Shopp

    DH: Papi

    1B: AGon

    2B: Pedey

    SS: Iggy/Punto (see OF: Aviles)

    3B: Youk

    LF: Aviles (& Ross/Sweeney from RF) (DMac?)

    CF: Ells

    RF: Ross/Sweeney

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I would think that they at least start the season with Aviles  / Punto. Hopefully Iglesias starts the year well in AAA ball and comes up before the all star break. That is entirely possible and keeps the team with another year of control. Hopefully he stays healthy and shows he can hit well enough to make the move. He looked like maturity was an issue the last time he came up. Lots of enthusiasm but not enough intensity. Tito wanted that intensity in every AB. Valentine might look at that situation differently. Maybe intensity doesn't necessarily mean more hits for some players. I lean towards Tito's approach in that area also but it's not a slam dunk decision. Hanley didn't show any intensity when he came up with us either and look what happened there. Latin players just don't always approach the game that way but that doesn't mean they will fail. 
     
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