A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I still say trade Middlebrooks, Tejada, and Bowden for Gavin Floyd, and we're looking good for opening day:

    Beckett-Lester-Buch-Floyd-Bard-Doubront (Dice-K in July)
    Bailey-Melancon-Aceves-Morales-Albers-Atchison-(Jenks whenever)
    Salty-Shopp 
    Papi 
    AGon
    Pedey
    Iggy*-Aviles-Punto
    Youk
    CC-(*DMac, if Iggy starts in AAA)
    Ells
    Ross-Sweeney

    Others: 
    Silva, Cook, Padilla, Miller, A.Wilson, Tazawa, Mortensen
    Lava, Kalish, Middlebrooks, Anderson, Exposito

    While we didn't get an expensive RF'er, it's hard to not imagine a nice upgrade from our 2011 RF numbers:

    Sox RF '11:                .233/.299/.353/.652
    Career
    Ross vs LHPs:          .282/.349/.563/.912
    Ross vs RHPs:          .253/.313/.414/.727
    Sweeney vs RHPs:  .296/.352/.402/.754

    Is it unrealistic to project an OPS of .800-.825 combined?
    We could even see a 200 point gain here for about $4M above the cost of Reddick/DMac.

    Good job Ben!

    Now, the dirty little option: dumping Papi to save $12.65 or $16M. We could get Floyd and Garza (or 1 with Oswalt).

    Nice staff:
    SP1: Beckett
    SP2: Lester
    SP3: Buch
    SP4: Garza
    SP5: Floyd
    SP6: Doubront
    RP1: Bailey
    RP2: Bard
    RP3: Melancon
    RP4: Aceves
    RP5: Morales
    RP6: Albers

    Lava and Youk share DH duties, and we'd probably have enough money to get another bat to help at DH vs LHPs.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I



    Moon, You called it....Cody Ross!
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Wasn't Scutty at the bottom of your "get rid of" list? My list would have been: 1) CC 2) Lackey 3) Jenks 4) Dice-K 5) Drew 6) Papi ($$$) 7) Lowrie 8) Scutaro ($$$ and better fielding) 9) Salty (Only because Lava is better) 10) tie: Miller/Weiland  
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

     No, I didn't have Scutaro on the list, which I just copied and pasted from my Oct 13 posting...the 33 Runs Thread, that I started towards the end of September predicted a RH shift in the line-up, in particular a Right Handed hitting Right Fielder. You guys are gonna love Ross, he hits most balls up the middle and has crazy pull power. He's not a dumpster pick-up, just a solid performer ala Mike Lowell and still in his prime. He's my nominee for 10th player.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I still say trade Middlebrooks, Tejada, and Bowden for Gavin Floyd, and we're looking good for opening day
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    You're kidding right, moon?  Trade our #1 prospect and future third baseman as part of a package for a pitcher with a career ERA+ of 100, the very definition of mediocre? 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Tejada and Bowden are near worthless fringe prospects at this point and Middlebrooks is probably not our 3rd baseman of the future. He's more like our 2 year bridge 3rd baseman at most IMO. We have Cecchinni and Bogaerts nipping at his heels already. The only problem with trading Middlebrooks now is that Youk might well get hurt but we can slot a backup 3rd baseman of comparable quality to Middlebrooks pretty easily.

    I like Bowden but we probably are not going to have roster space for him going forward ( he's out of poptions ). He either stays with the big club or gets traded. Tejada may never make it.

    Floyd is relatively cheap and he would be a decent 4th or 5th starter. I think I'd do that deal. You never know what is going to happen and Middlebrooks might emerge as a real solid player but the exigencies of this year would probably spur me to make that deal.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : You're kidding right, moon?  Trade our #1 prospect and future third baseman as part of a package for a pitcher with a career ERA+ of 100, the very definition of mediocre? 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Not kidding: 100% serious. 

    I like Cecchini and Bogaerts at 3B in 2014 (2013 if Youk moves to DH) more than Middlebrooks.

    ERA id not everything. Floyd has been the 15-20th best pitcher in MLB since 2008 or 9. He's a solid #2 that would be our #4 and push Bard and or Aceves back to the pen where they belong.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Tejada and Bowden are near worthless fringe prospects at this point and Middlebrooks is probably not our 3rd baseman of the future. He's more like our 2 year bridge 3rd baseman at most IMO. We have Cecchinni and Bogaerts nipping at his heels already. The only problem with trading Middlebrooks now is that Youk might well get hurt but we can slot a backup 3rd baseman of comparable quality to Middlebrooks pretty easily.

    I like Bowden but we probably are not going to have roster space for him going forward ( he's out of poptions ). He either stays with the big club or gets traded. Tejada may never make it.

    Floyd is relatively cheap and he would be a decent 4th or 5th starter. I think I'd do that deal. You never know what is going to happen and Middlebrooks might emerge as a real solid player but the exigencies of this year would probably spur me to make that deal.

    He's cheap in terms of luxury tax hit, but expensive to teh White Sox in terms of 2012 and 2013 salary. A perfect fit in trade.

    I like Tejada. I put Bowden in the deal, because he can make their 25 man roster, but not ours. He's out of options.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Moon, You called it....Cody Ross!
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]

    I'm not going tot take credit for being the first to mention Cody, but I did jump on his bandwagon very early. I also have been saying for months that trading Scutaro made the most sense to free up payroll space. Last spring, I called the finance issues we'd have this winter, and nearly everyone berated me and said we'd have plenty of money to fill the gaps. I used the word "crippling" to describe the CC contract, but have been amazed at how well Ben has sctracthed and clawed to get us payroll space while adding Bailey, Melancon, Ross, Sweeney, Punto, Shoppach, Silva, Cook, Padilla, and Mortenson. I thought we'd be too restricted to be able to pull this off, and Ben's not done yet!

    (Side note: I have had my share of being wrong as well.)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)

      (ARBs to go in Red)

    Papi           $_____ ($12.65M or $16M or compromise)

    Salty          $2.5M

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia      $6.7M

    Aviles        $1.2M

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $8.05M

    Ross          $3M

    Sweeney   $1.75M 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Mortensen $_____ ($ ??)

    Bard          $1.625M

    Aceves      $____  ($900K or $1.6M or compromise)

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $____ ($3.35M or $4.7M or compromise)

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Atchison   $_____ ($454K, then prearb and 3 arb years)

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $ 850K 

    _______________________________________________ 

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $148M (22 players)

    Plus 15 nonarb players ($15 x ~$450K= $6.75M) 

    New Est. Total: $154.8M before 3 arbs

    Now the 3 Arbs left to sign:

    Papi $12.65M or $16M (or agree to a deal)

    Bailey  $3.35M or $4.7M (or agree to a deal)

    Aceves $900K or $1.6M (or agree to a deal)

    Assuming no side deal:

    Total arb cost: $ 16.9M to $22.3M

    I'm going to assume Bailey agrees to $4.1M before arb and Aceves gets $1.3M. That adds $5.4M and a new est total of $160.3M before Papi.

    If Papi gets $12.65M, the total is $173M. If Papi gets $16M, it's $176.3M. I'm hoping we can work something out with a 2013 team option/buyout that will lessen the tax hit for 2012, maybe something like this: 2012: $13M, '13 team option $11M with a $1.4M buyout. That makes the salary count as $14.4M/2 or a $7.2M AVV. Let's assume Papi agrees to a deal similar to my suggestion. Our new est budget... 


    Luxury Tax Payroll Budget Total: ~$167.5 (before player benefit payment).

    Now, add the player benefits. I have heard $2M and $9M. I'm not sure which one it is. 

     

    TOTAL:  ~$169.5M if the benefits payment is $2M.


                    ~$176.5M if it is $9M.


    That means we will probably have between $1.5 and 8.5M to spend. 


    That number could come down if Lackey's deal is altered due to the injury clause. His AVV could go from $16.5 to $13.8M. (Subtract about $2.7M from our payroll budget for tax purposes). 

    $4.2M to $11.2M (with Lackey discount)

    It could also go down if we cut Miller loose from his nonguaranteed 1.04M deal. 

    $5.2M to $12.2M (cutting Miller)

    This is enough to trade for Floyd or probably enough to sign Oswalt.

    There is also the option of cutting any player who wins their arb deal (Papi?), but let's assume that won't happen.

    If we have $12.2M, we could trade for Floyd ($3.9M) and sign Oswalt to up to $8.3M (shouldn't cost that much).

    This could be our opening day roster:

    SP: Beckett, Lester, Buchholtz, Floyd, Oswalt, Doubront (LR)                                    

    RP: Bailey, Bard, Melancon, Aceves, Morales, Albers

    C: Salty, Shopp

    DH: Papi

    1B: AGon

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Youk

    SS: Aviles, Punto (Iggy until CC returns)

    LF: Ross (to RF when CC returns)

    CF: Ells

    RF: Sweeney

    Replacements: SP: Dice-K (July), Silva, Cook, Padilla, Miller, Mortensen, Haeger, Mathis, Duckworth, T. Pena, A.Wilson; RP: Jenks (Whenever), Bowden (out of options), Atchison (out of options), Tazawa, R. Hill (June), Germano, Carlson; C/DH: Lavarnway, Exposito; IF: Emaus, Middlebrooks, Spears, Ciriaco, Tejada, Anderson; OF: Kalish (May-June), Lin, Linares, Nava, Hassan, 

    R



     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, I know there are two Houston pitchers you like.  I think at least one of them is still out there.  How much would it take to get him?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Moon, I know there are two Houston pitchers you like.  I think at least one of them is still out there.  How much would it take to get him?
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    I think we could get Wandy real cheap if we paid all his salary. That ain't happenin'.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It would have been so much better to just let Ortiz go and slot Lavarnway at DH. Use the cash saved for other needs.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]It would have been so much better to just let Ortiz go and slot Lavarnway at DH. Use the cash saved for other needs.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Maybe so.  That might be too much pressure to put on Lavarnway though.  Let's see if they can finish the job here and get a decent starter.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Maybe so.  That might be too much pressure to put on Lavarnway though.  Let's see if they can finish the job here and get a decent starter.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    They may not have enough money to get a decent starter, stay under the tax limit, and keep all our higher priced players.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Well, we have offers out to both Oswalt and Jackson, so I guess the team is comfortable with signing a good starter.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Well, we have offers out to both Oswalt and Jackson, so I guess the team is comfortable with signing a good starter.
    Posted by titletownfan[/QUOTE]

    Both will be overpaid. 

    Ben might also be planning on trading (or cutting) more salary if one of these guys sign. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Papelbon might be worth $12.5M this year, but not for 4 years. It hurts that he's gone, but it was the right decision. No, I don't think Bailey is better, and he may have health issues as well, but it's not a huge step down. The addition of Melancon will help lessen the loss of Paps and may actually tilt the balance to a plus (Bailey + Melancon > Papelbon). Combined, they should have twice as many innings as Paps. Getting Bailey and Melancon without really losing any kep pieces or top prospects was brilliance on Ben's behalf.

    The other options?
    Bell  $27M/3? I don't think so.
    Valverde $9M? I don't think so.
    R. Madson $8.5M? I don't think so.
    Frank Francisco $12M/2? I don't think so.
    Broxton, Capps, Rauch, Farnsworth ($3.3 to 4.75M)I don't think so. 

    It's hard to judge this overall pen, until we know about where Bard and Aceves will be. That depends on us getting another solid starter or 2 or none. I'd love to see this pen in 2012:
    Closer: Bailey
    Set-up: Bard
    Set-up: Melancon
    Mid-relief: Aceves
    Mid-relief: Doubront
    RP: Morales
    RP: Albers
    Others: Tazawa, Jenks, Miller, Bowden, Atchison, R Hill, and more.

    Our top 3 relievers were fantastic last year, but let's look closer at the whole pen last year with 517 IP overall. 
    (2012 Projections in red, if pen above)
    IP  2011 RP
    93 Aceves    110 Aceves  
    73 Bard           80 Bard 
    65 Albers        75 Melancon
    64 Paps           55 Bailey
    (Subtotal: 295 IP in 2011 to 320 in 2012) +25 IP 2012
    49 Wheeler     70 Doubront
    32 Morales      60 Morales
    30 Atchison    60  Albers (Subtotal: 510 IP)
    20 Bowden       ?  Bowden
    17 Wakefield    ? Atchison
    16 Jenks            ? Jenks
    10 Doubront      ? Miller
    8   Okajima        ? Tazawa
    8   R Williams     ? R Hill
    8   R Hill
    7   A Miller
    4   Hottovy
    3   Weiland
    3   Tazawa
    2   T Miller
    2   D Reyes
    1   DMac
    1   Dice-K

    Someone will get hurt. Someone will underachieve. But, I think you catch my drift. If we can get 2 solid starters other than Bard and Aceves to fill the 4 and 5 slots, our pen can easily be an improved pen over 2011. 

    Our biggest positional offensive weaknesses of 2011 were ...
    RF .233/.299/.353/.652
    LF .258/.304/.419/.723
    Replacing Drew, Reddick and others with Cody Ross & Ryan Sweeney gives us the potential for up to a 200 point gain in RF OPS this year. We should easily gain 100-150 points.

    The next lowest offensive positions are typically MLB weak offensive positions.
    SS .279/.330/.401/.730
    C   .229/.291/.446/.737  
    We lost Scutaro, who was a very good offensive SS, but still have Aviles and added Punto to take Lowrie's place. Iggy remains the wildcard at SS, and if he plays a significant amount of time at SS, we will certainly see a big drop in SS OPS, but I seriously doubt it will overshadow the gains in RF, especially if we PH for Iggy late in games and play Aviles a bit on Iggy rest days.
    Salty is now the age VTek was when he became the regular Sox SS. He could improve. If Bobby V goes with a L-R platoon, instead of Tito's silly personal caddy set-up, having Shoppach get most of the PAs vs LHPs will help Salty's numbers get better, and get the best from Shopp as well. Last year Salty had this:
    vs RHPs: (243 PAs) .247/.304/.481/.786
    vs LHPs: (115 PAs) .209/.252/.383/.635
    VTek had this:
    vs RHPs: (169 PAs) .200/.277/.433/.710
    vs LHPs:   (81 PAs)  .264/.346/.403/.748
    Shoppach does very well vs LHPs:
    2011: .241/.344/.444/.788
    2010: .261/.375/.455/.830
    If Bobby V starts Salty vs almost all RHPs and Shoppach vs almost all LHPs, it will help us in two major ways:
    1) Offensively: Even if Lava gets no PAs as a catcher with the Sox in 2012, I think we can improve our catcher OPS by splitting the PAs by lefty/righty:
    600 total PAs divided this way:
    Salty: Instead of being 2:1 vs RHPs and LHPs, make it about 3:1
    360 PAs vs RHPs
    120 PAs vs LHPs
    Instead of VTek facing RHPs 2:1 over LHPs, have Shopp face LHPs 2:1
    80 PAs vs LHPs
    40 PAs vs RHPs
    This alone should raise our catcher OPS about 50 points, even if Salty doesn't improve.
    2) Salty and Shopp will not be personal caddies and not get a chance to learn certain pitchers on the staff like last year. Salty needs to catch Beckett.

    Next, I won't get into the chances of improvements at 3B if Youk stays healthy, because chances are sombody somewhere else will get hurt in 2012, but there is at least a hope of a relatively healthy year accross the board.

    Starting Pitching:
    Just Buch getting 27-32 starts could be huge.
    Replacing Lackey, Wake, Miller, Bedard, and Weiland could easily be addition by subtraction even if we end up with any two of these guys:
    Dice-K (June/July)
    Doubront 
    (Tazawa from the pen?)
    Silva
    Cook
    Padilla
    Miller
    Mortensen
    A Wilson
    Duckworth
    Haeger
    Nobody jumps out at me here, but there is certainly potential that 1 or two of these guys could be this year's Garcia or Colon.

    If we can get 1 or 2 of these guys, we are looking very good in my opinion:
    Floyd
    Garza
    Jackson
    Oswalt
    W Rodriguez
    (Others?)

    To me, this team is pulling together pretty well. The Papi arb looms, and could end up being the biggest offseason mistake, but not having Papi in the 2012 line-up is not an encouraging idea. 

    Guys like Beltran ($26/2) and Cuddyer ($31.5/3) were extreme overpays with no guarantees of doing any better than a Ross/Sweeney platoon..

    I like what Ben has done so far, let's see what unfolds over the next few days.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, good analysis above, especially on the relievers.  I agree completely on your take of Paps.  I think if we can find just one (or do we need two?) servicable starters, and put Bard and Aceves back in the pen, we will be stronger than last year.  Taser might be the one...he was pretty reliable with his starts two years ago and I continue to hope that Doubie or maybe Bowden, if not traded, will come into their own, respond to some different coaching voices, etc.  Ross had an off year last year along with several other Giants, but my impression of him two years ago was he was a "dirt dog" who brought lots of zip to the park every day.  I think Bi-Valve will like him.  My impression was he was pretty good on the bases too.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Moon, good analysis above, especially on the relievers.  I agree completely on your take of Paps.  I think if we can find just one (or do we need two?) servicable starters, and put Bard and Aceves back in the pen, we will be stronger than last year.  Taser might be the one...he was pretty reliable with his starts two years ago and I continue to hope that Doubie or maybe Bowden, if not traded, will come into their own, respond to some different coaching voices, etc.  Ross had an off year last year along with several other Giants, but my impression of him two years ago was he was a "dirt dog" who brought lots of zip to the park every day.  I think Bi-Valve will like him.  My impression was he was pretty good on the bases too.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    I think fans will like Ross. He fields well too.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I know Ben has said we can go over the tax limit, but here is a breakdown of the numbers....

     

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)

      (ARBs to go in Red)

    Papi           $_____ ($12.65M or $16M or compromise)

    Salty          $2.5M

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia      $6.7M

    Aviles        $1.2M

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $8.05M

    Ross          $3M

    Sweeney   $1.75M 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Mortensen $_____ ($ ??)

    Bard          $1.625M

    Aceves      $____  ($900K or $1.6M or compromise)

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $3.9M

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Atchison   $_____ ($454K, then prearb and 3 arb years)

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $ 850K 

    _______________________________________________ 

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $148M (22 players)

    Plus 15 nonarb players ($15 x ~$450K= $6.75M) 

    New Est. Total: $158.7 before 2 arbs

    Now the 2 Arbs left to sign:

    Papi $12.65M or $16M (or agree to a deal)

    Aceves $900K or $1.6M (or agree to a deal)

    Assuming no side deal:

    Total arb cost: $ 13.5M to $17.6M

    I'm going to assume Aceves gets $1.3M. That new total is $160M before Papi.

    If Papi gets $12.65M, the total is about $173M. If Papi gets $16M, it's $176M. I'm hoping we can work something out with a 2013 team option/buyout that will lessen the tax hit for 2012, maybe something like this: 2012: $13M, '13 team option $11M with a $1.4M buyout. That makes the salary count as $14.4M/2 or a $7.2M AVV. Let's assume Papi agrees to a deal similar to my suggestion. Our new est budget... 


    Luxury Tax Payroll Budget Total: ~$167.2M (before player benefit payment).

    Now, add the player benefits. I have heard $10.5M. I'm not sure if this is correct. 

     

    TOTAL:   ~$177.7M 

    That means we will probably have about $300K to spend and stay under the limit.

    That number could come down if Lackey's deal is altered due to the injury clause. His AVV could go from $16.5 to $13.8M. (Subtract about $2.7M from our payroll budget for tax purposes). 

    $3.0M 

    It could also go down if we cut Miller loose from his nonguaranteed 1.04M deal. 

    $4.0M to spend.

    This is just enough to trade for Floyd or probably enough to sign Oswalt or Jackson.

    There is also the option trading players or cutting any player who wins their arb deal (Papi?), but let's assume that won't happen.

    If we did trade to cut salary, there really aren't many viable options. Guys like Lackey & Dice-K are not wanted and are hurt. CC is way overpaid, and we'd have to pay about 1/3 of his deal. Youk can not easily be replaced and would not net very much in return, except prospects, since the only teams who might want him are contenders. Talk of trading Beckett is nonsense. That leaves a few minor contracts that could be dealt, but remember, if we trade a $2M player, and replace him with a minimum wage player, we only save about $1.5M.

    Here are some possibilities to trim a little off our payroll:

    $6M Jenks (Give him to the Cubs and call the Theo comp issue settled)

    $2.5M Salty (Trade while value is high. Teams need catching. Upgrade to Lava.)

    $2.1M Iggy (I want him starting day 1, but if Ben doesn't see him playing much, and we could get good return on trade, I'd consider dealing him for pitching help.)

    $1.75M Sweeney, $1.5M Punto, $1.35M Shoppach, $1.2M Aviles, $1.075M Albers, $1.04M Miller would just be minor savings. Only an Andrew Miller release or trade seems to make any sense, unless we bring up Lava (good bye Shopp) or others outshine Albers and we don't have room for him on the 25-man roster.



     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I just don't see how we get Jackson on a 1 year deal and Oswalt doesn't appear to be holding his breath to join us either. And if he did, word is that his stuff just isn't the same. I didn't see him as a great fit in Philly either though. If we can get Oswalt for $5 mil that's probably worth doing in our situation though.

    Did I hear that the Dodgers might be worth $1 billion? That is some serious cash for a franchise which hasn't won in a long time and doesn't look to be close to winning any time soon. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I just don't see how we get Jackson on a 1 year deal and Oswalt doesn't appear to be holding his breath to join us either. And if he did, word is that his stuff just isn't the same. I didn't see him as a great fit in Philly either though. If we can get Oswalt for $5 mil that's probably worth doing in our situation though. Did I hear that the Dodgers might be worth $1 billion? That is some serious cash for a franchise which hasn't won in a long time and doesn't look to be close to winning any time soon. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

     
     The valuation and sale of franchises is the the big lie perpetuated by the owners. Your point about connecting value to winning shows a common sense undestanding of how a team should be valued, but that's not what happens. The ever increasing and ridiculous rate of return for franchises should illustrate to players what they're missing...the union focuses on revenue splits, yet the owners KEEP ALL THE APPRECIATION!! How about an appreciation tax? The money could go towards player retirement, pensions and welfare. The last CBA rammed through without a contest, put a salary cap in place and the players go along, fat dumb and happy to get their free agency pennies, while the owners keep the gold nuggets for themselves.
      Rangers $590M
      Astros  $680M
      Cubs    $845M
     Dodgers $1B
     Players $0
      The argument will say that the owners take on all the risk, but that's a Potemkin Village argument, no franchise has lost money based upon the business of baseball, some owners have been careless with their baseball legacy and over extended debt, but those are personal failures not business ones. If the Dodgers are worth $1B, then RSN is worth 1.4B, and the MFY are priceless.
     
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I think fans will like Ross. He fields well too.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

     Moon you are WRONG! The fans will LOVE Ross!! Take a bow Professor, your lobbying for Ross worked, in tribute he should give up #7 and wear #59.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Thanks, but I wasn't the first to mention Ross. I jumped on the bandwagon early and am happy we got him for cheaper than I expected. I thought he'd get at least $7M/2.

    I am worried about his downward trend, but he's moving from SF to Boston. Playing for the Giants is tough on your offense, not just because of the home park, but because you also play so many games in LA and SD. I'm hoping for the best, and the best could be a darn good player!

    From 2007-2009 he put up some nice numbers:
    .276/.333/.503/.836
    per 650 PA
    28 HRs
    84 RBIs

    I hope we all "LOVE" Cody by year's end.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I just don't see how we get Jackson on a 1 year deal and Oswalt doesn't appear to be holding his breath to join us either. And if he did, word is that his stuff just isn't the same. I didn't see him as a great fit in Philly either though. If we can get Oswalt for $5 mil that's probably worth doing in our situation though. Did I hear that the Dodgers might be worth $1 billion? That is some serious cash for a franchise which hasn't won in a long time and doesn't look to be close to winning any time soon. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    The Dodgers have won more postseason games than the Red Sox over the past three seasons (1-0) and more divisional titles over the same span (1-0). The Dodgers have finished first, fourth and third in their division the past three years while the Red Sox finished second, third and third.
     

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