A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Even $5M is too much.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    $5 million too much for Oswalt?  Obviously that would depend on your projections of his numbers for 2012, which would be difficult considering our lack of knowledge of his health status, and also what moving to the AL East would do to him. 

    The $5 million would actually be $7 million if we're over the LT threshold and paying 40% tax.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    $5 million too much for Oswalt?  Obviously that would depend on your projections of his numbers for 2012, which would be difficult considering our lack of knowledge of his health status, and also what moving to the AL East would do to him.  

    The $5 million would actually be $7 million if we're over the LT threshold and paying 40% tax.

    Even if the medical staff said he was 100%, I wouldn't give him $5M (actually $7M as you point out). He's too much of a risk and too much of an unknown in the AL and AL East. We need someone who has a better chance of pitching over 200 innings. I'd rather have Floys at 4.20 and 210 IP than Oswalt possibly going for 4.00 for 150 IP.

    Yes, projections are difficult, but certainly you must not feel too confident in him going over 180 IP in 2012, or do you?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Hey Boom, watch the game.  It's Sunday afternoon.  The work will be there on Monday.  A little R&R is good.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    I'm 57 Crit and my youngest of 3 sons is going to college next year. Probably a pre-med major. I've gotta work Crit. I have no choice. I appreciate the thought though!

    And yeah, Floyd would certainly help Moon! I like going into the year with a top 3 power rating rather than hovering around #8. I doubt if Floyd happens and what would we have to give up to get him! I do think we get good compensation for Theo though and I'm seeing a little light opening up for Oswalt now but the guy is not the same pitcher he was. It may be that he can't get any deal over $6 mil.

    I can't believe no one would give Jackson a good multi year deal. He is only 28 and he certainly put up good numbers. Something is wrong in Denmark on that one. He's been traded a bunch of times.

    Saw an interesting note on soxprospects yesterday. ESPN Insider had us as the top farm system in baseball over the last 10 years in terms of WAR ratings. Pedroia, Buchholz, Ellsbury etc... had a lot to do with that and Youk I guess. Maybe guys like Hanley and Masterson also possibly, depending upon the evaluation methods. If I had to pick any simple evaluation criteria for a farm system I'd probably use WAR rating earned. That's what I want for a farm. I'd rather develop 4-5 studs than 20 mediocre prospects.

    The world has changed in baseball. I can't look at the way forward being nearly as successful for the Sox, as it has been recently. I like what is on the farm right now and we probably stay in the running for 3-4 years but we need to really hit the lottery with a few guys like Cechinni, Barnes, Lavarnway and Bogaerts ...etc to stay in the running. We can't really do overslot signings any more without severe penalties. There is more revenue sharing cash for the secondary market teams which will enable them to be much more competitive ( Now that is class warfare if there ever was ) and we are already saddled with big contracts which will limit our flexibility for years. 

    We lost big contracts like Papelbon's and Drew's and couldn't do squat this off season. We are going into 2012 with the biggest holes in the lineup I've seen since 2002.  

    Isn't it interesting that Papi wants to still do a multiyear deal. Outside of arbitration with over a week to go? It's almost like a jilted female hanging on to her choice in a man, who wants to move on without her. Controversial analogy I agree but I really don't see how that is as mutual as Ortiz wants. The guy signed undevalued deals for years. Will the Redso FO give him a hometown bonus? It could well be apparently but I don't think it's a good team decision, even though it could be a good "business" decision. NESN ratings appear to be all encompassing to the modern baseball team. 

    We don't talk about it much but how much of a factor is the NY Times sale of their team stock in all of this. It could be affecting Henry's ability to spend as well. It's well over $100 mil now isn't it? That's a lot of cash flow depending upon who ended up buying it. Did current ownership fork out some of that money? I know a venture capitalist put up $9 mil or so but I haven't seen an announcement of who the other buyer(s) were.

    Later!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Great post, boom. I'd like to respond to this portion...

    I can't look at the way forward being nearly as successful for the Sox, as it has been recently. I like what is on the farm right now and we probably stay in the running for 3-4 years but we need to really hit the lottery with a few guys like Cechinni, Barnes, Lavarnway and Bogaerts ...etc to stay in the running. We can't really do overslot signings any more without severe penalties. There is more revenue sharing cash for the secondary market teams which will enable them to be much more competitive ( Now that is class warfare if there ever was ) and we are already saddled with big contracts which will limit our flexibility for years. 

    While I agree things will get more difficult, we still had a deep draft last year that will take years to manefest itself. We also get extra picks this year. 

    I'm not sure the revenue sharing will be spent on payroll salary, just as the luxury tax distributions was not.

    We lost big contracts like Papelbon's and Drew's and couldn't do squat this off season. 

    boom, the money lost on Paps and Drew was effectively spent on AGon and Buch's extensions and forced by pending arb raises. Also, I wouldn't say picking up Bailey, Melancon, Ross, Sweeney, Shoppach, Punto, and others was "squat". It certainly has not equally met last actual winter's moves, but having AGon and Buch locked up is not small feat.

    We are going into 2012 with the biggest holes in the lineup I've seen since 2002.  

    boom, we have the same line-up as last year minus Scoot (who only played about 80% of the season). Last spring, we had no idea about Jacoby's pending breakout season. I have to think our expectation of his 2012 season is higher than what we had last winter. Yes, Papi and Youk may decline with age or injury, but I expect a 100-200 point OPS gain in RF, AGon to explode, and CC to greatly improve. I also do not see a big offensive drop off, if at all, at the SS position if Aviles starts. I see Bobby V using more of a L-R catcher platoon than Tito, thereby giving us more offense from the C slot. 

    Last year, I expected our offense to be as good or slightly better than 2010's, and although the league's overall offense declined, ours did not. I haven't done my anual position by position breakdown yet, but I fully expect that our offense will be as good as 2011, if not better. Yes, we still have the hole that was left by Manny's departure, but AGon will have some awesome seasons in the near future. A good, full and healthy season by Youk could make a huge difference as well.

    I share your deep concerns. I know the bottom of our order is not as nice as a couple other MLB teams, but I do not think it will be as bad as last year's. Let's take a closer look. My guess is our line-up may look like this:
    1) Ellsbury
    2) Pedey
    3) AGon
    4) Youk
    5) Papi
    6) Crawford
    7) Ross/Sweeney
    8) Salty/Shopp
    9) Aviles

    Last year our 1-6 was about the same, but although CC had the most PAs in the 6 slot (196), we syill got this from others:
    134 Jed
    124 JD
    49 Redd, 41 Salty, 34 DMac, 30 Cam, and 83 by others.
    Give CC a full season in this slot and I have to believe we'll see at least a 100 point OPS gain from the .695 OPS of 2011.

    7 Slot: Last season was .778
    141 CC, 105 Salty, 94 Jed, 74 Redd, 69 Scoot, 36 VTek, 34 Cam, 27 Sutton, 54 others.
    I'm counting on a Ross/Sweeney combination to end up between .800 and .850: a considerable gain from .778.

    8 Slot: .629 mostly from Salty, CC and Vtek with some from Redd, Scoot & Cam.
    This year Salty and Shopp platooning could have an overall OPS of about .725-.750: another big gain.

    9 Slot: .757 mostly from Scutty and Salty and Vtek.
    This year Aviles could match .757, but we might see a slight loss from this slot.

    I think we will be more balanced, and better than all but 2-3 teams top to bottom.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If what we have is what we get, the Sox are going to have a number of tough calls to make. Most of the players we are looking at as pitching depth are either out of options and or have Minor League contracts with escape clauses. Finding enough work for all of them this spring will keep Bobby V busy. It’s going to be interesting to see what Ben will do to insure pitching depth is maintained.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]If what we have is what we get, the Sox are going to have a number of tough calls to make. Most of the players we are looking at as pitching depth are either out of options and or have Minor League contracts with escape clauses. Finding enough work for all of them this spring will keep Bobby V busy. It’s going to be interesting to see what Ben will do to insure pitching depth is maintained.
    Posted by Thomasmtom[/QUOTE]

    This is a great point.

    Doubront & Bowden are out of options but have several years of team control. It would be a shame to lose them to waivers this spring.

    Several of the project pitchers have minor league deals, but I'm not sure how many have out clauses if they don't make the big club. I know Miller's $1.04M deal is not guaranteed, so he may be cut if he doesn't show improvement in ST and we save some cash.

    Any one know which pitchers have out clauses?

    My hope is we pick up another solid quality starter like Floyd, but if not maybe one of the projects will make the team as a starter. There's a long list, so there's a good chance one might rise to the occaison and make it. There's about 10 of them:
    Miller, Padilla, Cook, Silva, Cook, Mortenson, Alex Wilson, Duckworth, Haeger, and Maine.

    Here is who I think will be the likely 12 man staff come opening day, if all are healthy:
    Starting 5 (6): Beckett, Lester, Buchholtz, (2 of these 3 with the other being relief: Aceves, Bard or Doubront).
    Relief: Bailey, Melancon, Albers, Morales, Tazawa, Bowden

    Then, later in the year, we may have to make room for Dice-K, Jenks, and Hill.

    It will be an interesting spring.



     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)

      (ARB in Red)

    Papi           $_____ ($12.65M or $16M or compromise)

    Salty          $2.5M

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia      $6.7M

    Aviles        $1.2M

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $8.05M

    Ross          $3M

    Sweeney   $1.75M 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Mortensen $_____ ($ ??)

    Bard          $1.625M

    Aceves      $1.2M

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $3.9M

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $ 850K 

    _______________________________________________ 

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $148M (24 players)

    Plus 15 nonarb players ($15 x ~$450K= $6.75M) 

    New Est. Total: $155M before Papi arb or deal

    Papi Arb:  Papi $12.65M or $16M (or agree to a deal)

    If Papi gets $12.65M, the total is about $177M. If Papi gets $16M, it's $181M.

    Luxury Tax Payroll Budget Total: ~$177 to $181M (before player benefit payment).

    Now, add the player benefits. I have heard $9 to 10.5M. I'm not sure if this is correct. 

     

    TOTAL:   ~$186 to $191M 

    That number could come down if Lackey's deal is altered due to the injury clause. His AVV could go from $16.5 to $13.8M. (Subtract about $2.7M from our payroll budget for tax purposes). 

    $183-188M 

    It could also go down if we cut Miller loose from his nonguaranteed 1.04M deal. 

    $182-187M

    Here are some possibilities to trim a little off our payroll:

    Work out a 2 year deal with Papi with the 2nd year being a player option that will bring down the luxury tax total. Maybe something like this: 2012: $13M & 2013: $5M player option with $1M buyout. Making the deal worth $14M/1 to Papi, but only a $7M luxury tax hit.

    $177M-182M

    Other possible salary cuts:

    $6M Jenks (Give him to the Cubs and call the Theo comp issue settled)

    $2.5M Salty (Trade while value is high. Teams need catching. Upgrade to Lava.)

    $2.1M Iggy (I want him starting day 1, but if Ben doesn't see him playing much, and we could get good return on trade, I'd consider dealing him for pitching help.)

    $1.75M Sweeney, $1.5M Punto, $1.35M Shoppach, $1.2M Aviles, $1.075M Albers, would just be minor savings. These are mostly minor savings, since they would be replaced by someone making $440+K.

    Trading Lackey, Dice-K or Crawford could cut a lot of salary even if we paid some of much of their salary, but I seriously doubt it could happen. There's been some talk on this board about dealing Ellsbury, and there is some merit to the idea, but that's not going to happen soon (no matter how much mr. hanky prays for it).


     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, my concerns about the "lineup" were intended in regard to the overall 35 man roster and even the 40 man, even though the moment I said it that way I knew it would be interpreted as the batting lineup, which is certainly logical. Too much short hand on my part. I do agree that our offense should be about the same, as I have said here a week or so ago, but we are going into this year with weaker projected pitching. I do like the Melancon and Bailey pick ups but neither is a Papelbon or Bard. Bailey is a major injury risk. Sweeney is probably of some value but is comparable to Reddick. 

    Agon "exploded" about as much as we can hope for last year. To me, we can't really expect more out of him. He may hit for more homers but at 50 points less average also. He has hit under well under .300 historically, albeit in San Diego. If he gives us what he did last year that is probably the best we can expect IMO. We all expected more HR but that shoulder injury was projected by some ( at least me ) as a potential issue especially at the start of last year and it did appear to cut down the HR. I think his power does improve some but he may never be the same HR hitter he was earlier. I think both you and I projected more doubles impact from him than HR from looking at the hit chart last winter. I'd be really happy if he gives us what he gave last year. I wonder how he feels now about Fielder's contract?

    I like Ross as decent value in RF. I think Crawford probably does improve this year. Shoppach is not probably going to top what Tek gave us last year overall. And as we've both said many times, the starting pitching situation is very tenuous.

    Regarding going forward, I also loved last year's draft and we did get some extra picks. We should be in the running for the next 3-4 years and who knows what developments will happen by then. I'm basically stating that the "world is flat" in regard to baseball now. They do get heavily penalized for overslot signings now which were huge for us in the past. #1 in baseball WAR from the draft in the past 10 years according to ESPN.com. I don't see a lot of loopholes in the CBA for the big market teams now other than having more money for scouts, more money for FA and more money for developmental staff and facilities. That's a different world for us. I guess international signings are still a plus to a large degree.

    It's certainly not catastrophic. I guess my point is that it will not be as easy and it is not AS LIKELY for us to remain one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball every year as we have been for the past 8 or 9 years or so. Those overslot advantages were big and we milked them as well as any team in baseball.

    We all are effectively in Tampa Bay mode now except for the ability to spend maybe another 50-70 mil potentially, which we need to spend judiciuosly going forward. A couple bad contracts and kiss that advantage good bye for a long time. I bet thye are really hesitant to do big, long term deals especially for pitchers going forward. And it certainly looks like we are being extremely judicious with our cash right now. We are probably in Tampa Bay mode going forward with the main exception being we do have a $50 mil more cash for FA. 

    Let's hope we do as well as Tampa Bay has in developing talent. And I still regret that we couldn't pick up a couple pcks for Ortiz, and lose his salary while opening a slot for Lavarnway. That was a coin toss we probably lose going forward.  
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, my concerns about the "lineup" were intended in regard to the overall 35 man roster and even the 40 man, even though the moment I said it that way I knew it would be interpreted as the batting lineup, which is certainly logical. Too much short hand on my part. I do agree that our offense should be about the same, as I have said here a week or so ago, but we are going into this year with weaker projected pitching. I do like the Melancon and Bailey pick ups but neither is a Papelbon or Bard. Bailey is a major injury risk. Sweeney is probably of some value but is comparable to Reddick. 

    Agon "exploded" about as much as we can hope for last year. To me, we can't really expect more out of him. He may hit for more homers but at 50 points less average also. He has hit under well under .300 historically, albeit in San Diego. If he gives us what he did last year that is probably the best we can expect IMO. We all expected more HR but that shoulder injury was projected by some ( at least me ) as a potential issue especially at the start of last year and it did appear to cut down the HR. I think his power does improve some but he may never be the same HR hitter he was earlier. I think both you and I projected more doubles impact from him than HR from looking at the hit chart last winter. I'd be really happy if he gives us what he gave last year. I wonder how he feels now about Fielder's contract?

    I still think AGon has room to improve on 2011. Yes, his BA may fall, but his power and OBP can go up. I think he could approach 50 HRs and 140 RBIs, and be a force in Spetember. 

    I like Ross as decent value in RF. I think Crawford probably does improve this year. Shoppach is not probably going to top what Tek gave us last year overall. 

    I think if Bobby uses Shoppach mainly against LHPs, we will see a big increase in offesne from our catching position this year. I'm more worried about losing VTek's CERA-related skills.

    And as we've both said many times, the starting pitching situation is very tenuous.

    I agree, but looking at our starter numbers from the 4 slot to the 10th slot last year, does not show a difficult goal to surpass. 

    Regarding going forward, I also loved last year's draft and we did get some extra picks. We should be in the running for the next 3-4 years and who knows what developments will happen by then. I'm basically stating that the "world is flat" in regard to baseball now. 

    I agree, but we will see some residual effects from the old system helping our farm out for the next 2-5 years.

    They do get heavily penalized for overslot signings now which were huge for us in the past. #1 in baseball WAR from the draft in the past 10 years according to ESPN.com. I don't see a lot of loopholes in the CBA for the big market teams now other than having more money for scouts, more money for FA and more money for developmental staff and facilities. That's a different world for us. I guess international signings are still a plus to a large degree.

    I think we will see a shift in emphasis to this area over the next few years.

    It's certainly not catastrophic. I guess my point is that it will not be as easy and it is not AS LIKELY for us to remain one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball every year as we have been for the past 8 or 9 years or so. Those overslot advantages were big and we milked them as well as any team in baseball.

    I think our window still extends to the next 6-8 years, since the glut of prosepcts we obtained the past few years should give us an advantage over other teams with less picks. Plus, we will always be a top tier spending team.

    We all are effectively in Tampa Bay mode now except for the ability to spend maybe another 50-70 mil potentially, which we need to spend judiciuosly going forward. A couple bad contracts and kiss that advantage good bye for a long time. I bet thye are really hesitant to do big, long term deals especially for pitchers going forward. And it certainly looks like we are being extremely judicious with our cash right now. We are probably in Tampa Bay mode going forward with the main exception being we do have a $50 mil more cash for FA. 

    I wish we could go back and udno the CC deal... Lackey's as well, but we are stuck with them. My hope is that some prospects will start filling key roles soon, and that savings can be used to help us fill in other key roles as needed. 

    Here's a few optimistic, but not unrealistic scenarios to come:

    Salty and lava have better 2012 seasons and we can either trade Salty for a nice return or use Salty and Lava as our catching tandem next year, with Lava DH'ing 4-5 times a week, saving us millions after Papi walks.

    Middlebrooks, Cecchini, or Bogaerts rise to the top and allow us to trade Youk ($13M)or use Youk at DH when Papi walks ($12.65 to 16M).

    Kalish, Brentz or some other OF prospect takes over for Cody Ross ($3M) next year.

    Doubront, Tazawa, Barnes, Ranaudo, Wilson, Britton or others may grab a starting role sooner or later.

    Then there's Iggy and Coyle, and tejada and Swihart, Jacobs, Vitek, and Owens...

    I know many of these names will not pan out, but I really am confident a few will become the next Pedey or Youk or Jacoby or Lester.




    Let's hope we do as well as Tampa Bay has in developing talent. And I still regret that we couldn't pick up a couple pcks for Ortiz, and lose his salary while opening a slot for Lavarnway. That was a coin toss we probably lose going forward.  
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'm kind of surprised Atchison cleared waivers and am happy he will give us some relief depth on the farm this summer.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Brentz should be in AA ball next year. If he does well he may be a September call up. If he tears it up it's possible he could be brought up before then. He was considered one of the top 2 hitters in college when he was drafted. Within 2 years he could be a force for us either in RF or LF. I like him better than Kalish at this point. 2 major injuries for Kalish will make his comeback problematic. Hopefully he comes back strong but we cannot reliably project that.

    I don't disagree with most of what you said Moon. It's more a matter of emphasis and shades of grade rather than black vs white. We absolutely should be a strong team 6-7 years from now as the full benefit from this years draft picks, and prior year's picks, should be really emerging as strong mlb players by then. I'm just saying it will be significantly tougher going forward, than it was earlier, and we should have at least some impact from the lack of overslot signing options within 3-4 years from now. We may start felling the impact some by that time. 

    And having better 4 & 5 options next year should not be tough but we appear to be doing our best to keep from fixing that problem. And #3 wasn't with us for much more than 1/2 the year and it wasn't enough to get it done last year. And to me, both Tampa and NY have improved again. At this point, I am projecting us at #3 in our division. That's just how I honestly see it. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Moon, my concerns about the "lineup" were intended in regard to the overall 35 man roster and even the 40 man, even though the moment I said it that way I knew it would be interpreted as the batting lineup, which is certainly logical. Too much short hand on my part. I do agree that our offense should be about the same, as I have said here a week or so ago, but we are going into this year with weaker projected pitching. I do like the Melancon and Bailey pick ups but neither is a Papelbon or Bard. Bailey is a major injury risk. Sweeney is probably of some value but is comparable to Reddick.  Agon "exploded" about as much as we can hope for last year. To me, we can't really expect more out of him. He may hit for more homers but at 50 points less average also. He has hit under well under .300 historically, albeit in San Diego. If he gives us what he did last year that is probably the best we can expect IMO. We all expected more HR but that shoulder injury was projected by some ( at least me ) as a potential issue especially at the start of last year and it did appear to cut down the HR. I think his power does improve some but he may never be the same HR hitter he was earlier. I think both you and I projected more doubles impact from him than HR from looking at the hit chart last winter. I'd be really happy if he gives us what he gave last year. I wonder how he feels now about Fielder's contract? I still think AGon has room to improve on 2011. Yes, his BA may fall, but his power and OBP can go up. I think he could approach 50 HRs and 140 RBIs, and be a force in Spetember.  I like Ross as decent value in RF. I think Crawford probably does improve this year. Shoppach is not probably going to top what Tek gave us last year overall.  I think if Bobby uses Shoppach mainly against LHPs, we will see a big increase in offesne from our catching position this year. I'm more worried about losing VTek's CERA-related skills. And as we've both said many times, the starting pitching situation is very tenuous. I agree, but looking at our starter numbers from the 4 slot to the 10th slot last year, does not show a difficult goal to surpass.  Regarding going forward, I also loved last year's draft and we did get some extra picks. We should be in the running for the next 3-4 years and who knows what developments will happen by then. I'm basically stating that the "world is flat" in regard to baseball now.  I agree, but we will see some residual effects from the old system helping our farm out for the next 2-5 years. They do get heavily penalized for overslot signings now which were huge for us in the past. #1 in baseball WAR from the draft in the past 10 years according to ESPN.com. I don't see a lot of loopholes in the CBA for the big market teams now other than having more money for scouts, more money for FA and more money for developmental staff and facilities. That's a different world for us. I guess international signings are still a plus to a large degree. I think we will see a shift in emphasis to this area over the next few years. It's certainly not catastrophic. I guess my point is that it will not be as easy and it is not AS LIKELY for us to remain one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball every year as we have been for the past 8 or 9 years or so. Those overslot advantages were big and we milked them as well as any team in baseball. I think our window still extends to the next 6-8 years, since the glut of prosepcts we obtained the past few years should give us an advantage over other teams with less picks. Plus, we will always be a top tier spending team. We all are effectively in Tampa Bay mode now except for the ability to spend maybe another 50-70 mil potentially, which we need to spend judiciuosly going forward. A couple bad contracts and kiss that advantage good bye for a long time. I bet thye are really hesitant to do big, long term deals especially for pitchers going forward. And it certainly looks like we are being extremely judicious with our cash right now. We are probably in Tampa Bay mode going forward with the main exception being we do have a $50 mil more cash for FA.  I wish we could go back and udno the CC deal... Lackey's as well, but we are stuck with them. My hope is that some prospects will start filling key roles soon, and that savings can be used to help us fill in other key roles as needed.  Here's a few optimistic, but not unrealistic scenarios to come: Salty and lava have better 2012 seasons and we can either trade Salty for a nice return or use Salty and Lava as our catching tandem next year, with Lava DH'ing 4-5 times a week, saving us millions after Papi walks. Middlebrooks, Cecchini, or Bogaerts rise to the top and allow us to trade Youk ($13M)or use Youk at DH when Papi walks ($12.65 to 16M). Kalish, Brentz or some other OF prospect takes over for Cody Ross ($3M) next year. Doubront, Tazawa, Barnes, Ranaudo, Wilson, Britton or others may grab a starting role sooner or later. Then there's Iggy and Coyle, and tejada and Swihart, Jacobs, Vitek, and Owens... I know many of these names will not pan out, but I really am confident a few will become the next Pedey or Youk or Jacoby or Lester. Let's hope we do as well as Tampa Bay has in developing talent. And I still regret that we couldn't pick up a couple pcks for Ortiz, and lose his salary while opening a slot for Lavarnway. That was a coin toss we probably lose going forward.  
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Moon, IMO, it will be a major surprise if Gonzalez "approaches" 50 HRs. And my feeling has nothing to do with his shoulder. He does not have and never did have a slugger's swing. Though he's a little stronger than Mattingly, their swings are similar, and both are similar to that of the Cubs' fancy Dan, who, of course, had even less power. They are all stroke hitters with pretty even swings and nice rhythmical mechanics when they are hot. Not that this kind of swing doesn't produce dingers, but it's basically a line-drive swing. 
    In Fenway, Gonzalez has to start lining lefty breaking balls off the monster. If he does, he will then get more pitches that he can pull for power. Both he and Crawford will add greatly to their value if they start to tame lefties, especially Crawford. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    As the great BurritoT said a year ago AGon is a 30 homer type hitter. He may have 50 doubles and 30 homers more times than not. With Ortiz eventually leaving and not hitting 35+ homers any longer the Sox do need to aquire that type of "basher" within the next 12 months.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    At this point, I am projecting us at #3 in our division. That's just how I honestly see it. 

    I agree that NY & TB should be improved this year, and other AL East teams will not be as easy to beat as well, but I do think we are better as well. How much better is the big question, and to me, a lot depends on who our 4/5 starters will be and how they perform.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Moon, IMO, it will be a major surprise if Gonzalez "approaches" 50 HRs. And my feeling has nothing to do with his shoulder. He does not have and never did have a slugger's swing. Though he's a little stronger than Mattingly, their swings are similar, and both are similar to that of the Cubs' fancy Dan, who, of course, had even less power. They are all stroke hitters with pretty even swings and nice rhythmical mechanics when they are hot. Not that this kind of swing doesn't produce dingers, but it's basically a line-drive swing. 
    In Fenway, Gonzalez has to start lining lefty breaking balls off the monster. If he does, he will then get more pitches that he can pull for power. Both he and Crawford will add greatly to their value if they start to tame lefties, especially Crawford. 

    I'm basing my projections of an unsientific idea that AGon's past was deeply effected by playing in the pitcher's park of SD. In 2009, he hit 40 HRs, of which 28 were on the road. That seems to show he is capable of huitting over 50 (28 x 2 = 56).  He hit 22 on the road in 2008 and 20 in 2007 and 2010. Many of those road games were in LA and other "pitching parks". Looking at his spray charts in SD and superimposing them over Fenway, shows he'd have hit many more HRs. I realize that pitchers would pitch him differently, so the data is skewed, but I do think his road numbers with SD are telling. His career away slg% is 116 points higher than at home. His career slg% Fenway numbers are 74 points higher than PETCO. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If we look closely at Gonzalez's numbers in SD, as most of us have for years now, it did appear that he could have 1 or 2 years approaching 50HR in Fenway but his last year in SD he did tail off a lot due apparently to the shoulder injury. He played almost all year with it and still performed fairly well and after having the surgery it was more likely that he would start off last year with reduced power, which did appear to happen.

    Just from the data, after more time for recovery from the injury and him still being in his prime, he could clearly have some years with increased power but 50 HR is a ton and very few players have even reached that plateau in the non PED era. And I would contend that Adrian's numbers always indicated a 10-15 doubles increase in Fenway more than a 10-15 HR increase. 

    I'm not certain I would agree that Adrian doesn't have a HR swing but I do think he has adjusted his swing a lot due to the shoulder situation and he probably does hit for a higher average going forward as a result. The guy is a pure hitter in many ways. Grew up with a batting cage in his back yard. He doesn't pull the ball as much as most HR hitters. I think he may have more road HR next year as he is well suited to Toronto and one would think could still hit some out of the other parks in our division as well. And his swing is clearly suited for Fenway. I think he keeps working on that inside out swing and does hit more HR in Fenway also by getting more loft on the ball. It probably does improve some with time. I just think 50 HR is pushing it. Those are once or twice in a lifetime numbers for even the greatest sluggers in history, non PED aided.

    I think he's a major contributor going forward. No complaints. And probably even worth his salary. He's one of the least of our problems. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    50 might be pushing it, but he's in his prime now. I', thinking about 45-48 this year, but I'm hoping more for a big RBI total.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'm just throwing this out there...is anyone on here actually going to spring training? For the first time in my lifetime I will be heading South on Feb 29th and returning April fools day with tickets in hand for all 18 home games at Jet Blue. (I know that I'll be missing the last game as we will be travelling back on April 1st.) I'm not sure what kind of computer access I'll have while there as I'll be taking care of my father-in-law who doesn't know what a computer or the internet is. But if any of the regulars on here will be there it will be great to get together. Those of you who have been reading any of my posts know that I am not much of a stats guy but I do have a pretty good baseball eye (guess I could never work for Billy Beane!) and I'll be happy to share my observations whenever I can.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Actually Gonzo’s numbers surprised me. I really thought he would hit for a lower average (change of leagues) but with more HR’s. In consideration of the shoulder problems he had and adjusting to playing away from home I thought he did just great.

    In 2012 a healthy Gonzalez should be a real force, I look for him to lead the league in

    extra base hits and RBI’s.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In 2012 a healthy Gonzalez should be a real force, I look for him to lead the league in

    extra base hits and RBI’s.


    He should be right there with the leaders in both of these categories.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Jid, I'm going to be going down late in April, so I won't be there, but that is very gracious of you.  Thank you so much.  Enjoy your games!  I'm envious!  I hoped to retire two years from now, and I want to go to ST then...
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Sounds like a lot of fun.  I wish I could join you!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    moon: just saw our old friend Bill Hall is a Yankee now - $600,000 minor league deal.
    Just passing it along. I liked Hall when he played for us. I wish him well, though time may have caught up with him as it caught up with me several years ago.


    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/07/bill-hall-signs-with-the-yankees/
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]If we look closely at Gonzalez's numbers in SD, as most of us have for years now, it did appear that he could have 1 or 2 years approaching 50HR in Fenway but his last year in SD he did tail off a lot due apparently to the shoulder injury. He played almost all year with it and still performed fairly well and after having the surgery it was more likely that he would start off last year with reduced power, which did appear to happen. Just from the data, after more time for recovery from the injury and him still being in his prime, he could clearly have some years with increased power but 50 HR is a ton and very few players have even reached that plateau in the non PED era. And I would contend that Adrian's numbers always indicated a 10-15 doubles increase in Fenway more than a 10-15 HR increase.  I'm not certain I would agree that Adrian doesn't have a HR swing but I do think he has adjusted his swing a lot due to the shoulder situation and he probably does hit for a higher average going forward as a result. The guy is a pure hitter in many ways. Grew up with a batting cage in his back yard. He doesn't pull the ball as much as most HR hitters. I think he may have more road HR next year as he is well suited to Toronto and one would think could still hit some out of the other parks in our division as well. And his swing is clearly suited for Fenway. I think he keeps working on that inside out swing and does hit more HR in Fenway also by getting more loft on the ball. It probably does improve some with time. I just think 50 HR is pushing it. Those are once or twice in a lifetime numbers for even the greatest sluggers in history, non PED aided. I think he's a major contributor going forward. No complaints. And probably even worth his salary. He's one of the least of our problems. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Boom, I think my phrase was "not a slugger's swing," which I take to mean something slightly different from "a HR swing."
    Most sluggers are wrist hitters who explode on the ball, as though it's an enemy of the people. If, at the moment of contact, the slight uppercut is at precisely the right angle, the ball will rise with sufficient backspin to prevent its becoming a can of corn. And it will carry. Sluggers have an assortment of stances and approaches to this or that pitcher, but the physics of the rocked long ball change very little from batter to batter.
    Pure stroke hitters differ from this pattern in that they "serve" the ball off the bat and seem to stay on the ball longer than do essential sluggers. If they are strong and get their pitch to pull, they will get their share ( that is, share for stroke hitters ) of long balls, some of which will leave the park,depending upon the park.
    These are not, of course, mutually exclusive categories; but they do account for batting styles and dispositions. And results. After watching Gonzalez play against the Dodgers for years and for the Sox last year, I locate him much more in the second category than in the first. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Interesting points, ex. I do think that the way AGon goes with the pitch will help him use LF more than many LH'd batters do. Pitchers may then try to compensate by pitching him more inside while at Fenway, so that might limit his ability to hit HRs since he will start to hit more balls to RF than he normally has. 
     

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