Even $5M is too much.
Posted by moonslav59

Hey Boom, watch the game.  It's Sunday afternoon.  The work will be there on Monday.  A little R&R is good.
Posted by Critter23

If what we have is what we get, the Sox are going to have a number of tough calls to make. Most of the players we are looking at as pitching depth are either out of options and or have Minor League contracts with escape clauses. Finding enough work for all of them this spring will keep Bobby V busy. It’s going to be interesting to see what Ben will do to insure pitching depth is maintained.
Posted by Thomasmtom

Moon, my concerns about the "lineup" were intended in regard to the overall 35 man roster and even the 40 man, even though the moment I said it that way I knew it would be interpreted as the batting lineup, which is certainly logical. Too much short hand on my part. I do agree that our offense should be about the same, as I have said here a week or so ago, but we are going into this year with weaker projected pitching. I do like the Melancon and Bailey pick ups but neither is a Papelbon or Bard. Bailey is a major injury risk. Sweeney is probably of some value but is comparable to Reddick.  Agon "exploded" about as much as we can hope for last year. To me, we can't really expect more out of him. He may hit for more homers but at 50 points less average also. He has hit under well under .300 historically, albeit in San Diego. If he gives us what he did last year that is probably the best we can expect IMO. We all expected more HR but that shoulder injury was projected by some ( at least me ) as a potential issue especially at the start of last year and it did appear to cut down the HR. I think his power does improve some but he may never be the same HR hitter he was earlier. I think both you and I projected more doubles impact from him than HR from looking at the hit chart last winter. I'd be really happy if he gives us what he gave last year. I wonder how he feels now about Fielder's contract? I still think AGon has room to improve on 2011. Yes, his BA may fall, but his power and OBP can go up. I think he could approach 50 HRs and 140 RBIs, and be a force in Spetember.  I like Ross as decent value in RF. I think Crawford probably does improve this year. Shoppach is not probably going to top what Tek gave us last year overall.  I think if Bobby uses Shoppach mainly against LHPs, we will see a big increase in offesne from our catching position this year. I'm more worried about losing VTek's CERA-related skills. And as we've both said many times, the starting pitching situation is very tenuous. I agree, but looking at our starter numbers from the 4 slot to the 10th slot last year, does not show a difficult goal to surpass.  Regarding going forward, I also loved last year's draft and we did get some extra picks. We should be in the running for the next 3-4 years and who knows what developments will happen by then. I'm basically stating that the "world is flat" in regard to baseball now.  I agree, but we will see some residual effects from the old system helping our farm out for the next 2-5 years. They do get heavily penalized for overslot signings now which were huge for us in the past. #1 in baseball WAR from the draft in the past 10 years according to ESPN.com. I don't see a lot of loopholes in the CBA for the big market teams now other than having more money for scouts, more money for FA and more money for developmental staff and facilities. That's a different world for us. I guess international signings are still a plus to a large degree. I think we will see a shift in emphasis to this area over the next few years. It's certainly not catastrophic. I guess my point is that it will not be as easy and it is not AS LIKELY for us to remain one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball every year as we have been for the past 8 or 9 years or so. Those overslot advantages were big and we milked them as well as any team in baseball. I think our window still extends to the next 6-8 years, since the glut of prosepcts we obtained the past few years should give us an advantage over other teams with less picks. Plus, we will always be a top tier spending team. We all are effectively in Tampa Bay mode now except for the ability to spend maybe another 50-70 mil potentially, which we need to spend judiciuosly going forward. A couple bad contracts and kiss that advantage good bye for a long time. I bet thye are really hesitant to do big, long term deals especially for pitchers going forward. And it certainly looks like we are being extremely judicious with our cash right now. We are probably in Tampa Bay mode going forward with the main exception being we do have a $50 mil more cash for FA.  I wish we could go back and udno the CC deal... Lackey's as well, but we are stuck with them. My hope is that some prospects will start filling key roles soon, and that savings can be used to help us fill in other key roles as needed.  Here's a few optimistic, but not unrealistic scenarios to come: Salty and lava have better 2012 seasons and we can either trade Salty for a nice return or use Salty and Lava as our catching tandem next year, with Lava DH'ing 4-5 times a week, saving us millions after Papi walks. Middlebrooks, Cecchini, or Bogaerts rise to the top and allow us to trade Youk ($13M)or use Youk at DH when Papi walks ($12.65 to 16M). Kalish, Brentz or some other OF prospect takes over for Cody Ross ($3M) next year. Doubront, Tazawa, Barnes, Ranaudo, Wilson, Britton or others may grab a starting role sooner or later. Then there's Iggy and Coyle, and tejada and Swihart, Jacobs, Vitek, and Owens... I know many of these names will not pan out, but I really am confident a few will become the next Pedey or Youk or Jacoby or Lester. Let's hope we do as well as Tampa Bay has in developing talent. And I still regret that we couldn't pick up a couple pcks for Ortiz, and lose his salary while opening a slot for Lavarnway. That was a coin toss we probably lose going forward.  
Posted by moonslav59

If we look closely at Gonzalez's numbers in SD, as most of us have for years now, it did appear that he could have 1 or 2 years approaching 50HR in Fenway but his last year in SD he did tail off a lot due apparently to the shoulder injury. He played almost all year with it and still performed fairly well and after having the surgery it was more likely that he would start off last year with reduced power, which did appear to happen. Just from the data, after more time for recovery from the injury and him still being in his prime, he could clearly have some years with increased power but 50 HR is a ton and very few players have even reached that plateau in the non PED era. And I would contend that Adrian's numbers always indicated a 10-15 doubles increase in Fenway more than a 10-15 HR increase.  I'm not certain I would agree that Adrian doesn't have a HR swing but I do think he has adjusted his swing a lot due to the shoulder situation and he probably does hit for a higher average going forward as a result. The guy is a pure hitter in many ways. Grew up with a batting cage in his back yard. He doesn't pull the ball as much as most HR hitters. I think he may have more road HR next year as he is well suited to Toronto and one would think could still hit some out of the other parks in our division as well. And his swing is clearly suited for Fenway. I think he keeps working on that inside out swing and does hit more HR in Fenway also by getting more loft on the ball. It probably does improve some with time. I just think 50 HR is pushing it. Those are once or twice in a lifetime numbers for even the greatest sluggers in history, non PED aided. I think he's a major contributor going forward. No complaints. And probably even worth his salary. He's one of the least of our problems. 
Posted by Boomerangsdotcom