A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    EAST 

    W

    L

    PCT

    GB

    HOME

    ROAD

    L10

    STRK

    ELIM#

    Baltimore OriolesOrioles2716.6280.012-1015-66-4L2-
    Tampa Bay RaysRays2518.5812.015-710-115-5L2118
    Toronto Blue JaysBlue Jays2419.5583.012-1012-96-4W1117
    Boston Red SoxRed Sox2121.5005.59-1112-108-2W3115
    New York YankeesYankees2121.5005.512-119-103-7L3115
     

    The Angels and Phillies are still moared in last place, yet the Sox have left the docks of pity and have sailed to .500 going 8-2 over their last ten games. They are now seperating themselves from the bottom and moving forward.

    May 22, 2012
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

     Peter Abraham writes that the comeback has been largely due to the bullpen--especially Aceves as the closer and Padilla as the set up man.  Last night it was Padilla who got the two outs with two men on and Padilla who has been so good with men on base.  Miller, last year's disaster as a starter, has now gone 8 innings with no runs, 10 K's, and 1 walk.  Atchison has pitched 24 innings with a low ERA.  Melancon and Mortensen languish in Pawtucket because this bullpen has been so lights out.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The pen is doing great, no doubt, but I think they are pitching a bit over their heads right now. It's nice to know we have some guys ready to step in when that happenes. I'm not so sure we can say the same about our rotation.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Where are all the Yankee trolls today?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]EAST  W L PCT GB HOME ROAD L10 STRK ELIM# Orioles 27 16 .628 0.0 12-10 15-6 6-4 L2 - Rays 25 18 .581 2.0 15-7 10-11 5-5 L2 118 Blue Jays 24 19 .558 3.0 12-10 12-9 6-4 W1 117 Red Sox 21 21 .500 5.5 9-11 12-10 8-2 W3 115 Yankees 21 21 .500 5.5 12-11 9-10 3-7 L3 115   The Angels and Phillies are still moared in last place, yet the Sox have left the docks of pity and have sailed to .500 going 8-2 over their last ten games. They are now seperating themselves from the bottom and moving forward. May 22, 2012
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE] hey Rito'..pass the flashlight, it's dark down here :)
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I notice the Sox are +19 in run differential, which is I think the 5th best in MLB. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]The pen is doing great, no doubt, but I think they are pitching a bit over their heads right now. It's nice to know we have some guys ready to step in when that happenes. I'm not so sure we can say the same about our rotation.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If you agree the bullpen is doing great and has great backups standing by in Pawtucket and that the rotation is the problem, why do you keep insisting the Sox never should have used Bard as a starter and shouldn't be right now? 

    Before you answer, I already agree a trade for a good starter would be a good idea, but it's equally apparent to me they don't grow on trees.  Almost everybody wants another good starter, especially half the teams (15) in MLB who think they have a shot at the playoffs (this year 10 teams).  I also think the luxury tax is now a big deal and limits how much the Sox can or will spend to just buy a starter.   

    Meanwhile, starting Bard makes sense.  He's done better than Buchholz, which isn't saying much, but that's the state of the Sox rotation right now. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    f you agree the bullpen is doing great and has great backups standing by in Pawtucket and that the rotation is the problem, why do you keep insisting the Sox never should have used Bard as a starter and shouldn't be right now?  

    Why do you and others keep misrepresenting my position?

    I have never said move bard to the pen "right now". In fact, I have gone out of my way to say otherwise.

    Also, just because I agree that the pen is doing fine right now, does not mean I think they will continue as is until October, both in terms of how well they are doing and that nobody will get hurt or struggle ebtween now and October. Our pen will need adjustments at some point. The trade deadline in over 2 months away. We'll know more by then.

    Before you answer, I already agree a trade for a good starter would be a good idea, but it's equally apparent to me they don't grow on trees.  Almost everybody wants another good starter, especially half the teams (15) in MLB who think they have a shot at the playoffs (this year 10 teams).  I also think the luxury tax is now a big deal and limits how much the Sox can or will spend to just buy a starter.    

    1) I realize there is a luxury tax issue, and in the offseason, I proposed plans that would bring us a Floyd or Wandy and still keep us under the cap. Floyd makes the most sense, because while his contract is a bit high this year ($7M) and next ($9.5M option), his luxury tax his is very low and manageable (just $3.9M a year). Gavin Floyd is 10 times more reliable and dependable a starter than Buch, Bard or Doubront.

    I may be wrong, but I'd bet that like every trade deadline, we will all be clamouring for a starting pitcher. Bard may or may not be the "odd man out", but to me, it makes the most sense that at that time, he be sent to the pen, since nobody expects him to start 30 games this season and then 4-5 more in the playoffs in top form.

    Meanwhile, starting Bard makes sense.  He's done better than Buchholz, which isn't saying much, but that's the state of the Sox rotation right now.

    I agree. If Bard never regains form and bard does better as  a starter, then Floyd could replace Buch (or even Doubront if he struggles more than bard over the next 10 weeks). 


     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Buchholz should switch positions with Padilla, who can easily be a 5-6 IP starter.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    moonslav,

    All in all, your latest is pretty reasonable.  The Sox do need at least one more starter, preferably a good one.  Matsuzaka ain't likely to be him.  Cook, maybe, but we can't be sure.  Floyd would do nicely, but will the White Sox give him up for a reasonable price?  Meanwhile, Bard gets to start--ditto Buchholz--because he is what's available.  Our only point of difference is the bullpen, which I think has plenty of good arms on hand and waiting at Pawtucket. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Forget Bard, I think Buch should go to AAA right now.  After 9 starts we are beyond knocking off the rust, he just had a few bad games, etc.  He should go to AAA immediately and stay there until he figures it out.  If when/he gets back on track he'd only come back if we really think he will outperform whoever is the fifth starter at that time.  If he stays in Boston we are rapidly building another John Lackey scenario.  If Cook can take his place fine.  If not, I'd be perfectly happy giving Germano a shot or even a BP tandem start.  We need to keep winning games right now and Buch's weekly high wire act is bad for the team and for him.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    111, exactly. Hard to criticize Bard (or Lester in the other thread) knowing that Clay has been habitually Lackey-esque.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I would move Padilla to starter and actually put Buch in the pen. Maybe he finds a niche there that can help the MLB team. I hate it when guys WITH TALENT go to the minors to work out things (Melancon proves to me that minors and MLB really are like to two different worlds). 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

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    Clay should be a starter: he has the talent and the stuff for it.  Sending him to the pen will neither make this team better nor help him get back on track.  His best value when pitching to his abilities is as a starter so keep him there but send him to AAA where he won't hurt the team while he figures things out.

    I wouldn't draw the same conclusion about Melancon's performance in AAA.  He has good stuff and has succeeded in the MLB.  Something was clearly wrong with him and it looks like he's figured it out.  That's another reason I don't like the idea of sending Buch to the pen.  Why should he keep a roster spot that rightfully belongs to Taz, Mortensen or Melancon?  Cook will be available again soon and if he isn't we have RPs who can spot start plus Germano doesn't look like a bad option for a couple of spot starts.

    The longer term solution to the problems (lacking a #3 starter AND our log jam of relievers) is to make a trade.  I think we have enough options for now to not make a hasty trade though.  Let's let the Youk/WMB situation play out, see what we have for pen/spot start depth and find a trade that helps this team in the long and short term.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Mortensen was lights out terrific in his stay here. I'd bring him back in a mili-second if a spot was available. I like him more than Albers, although Matt has been very good.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    right, 111, but also if Buch were to throw 1 inning here a long relief of 3 inn in a game and righted himself, he could then go right back to the rotation to try again. It may just take a quality relief performance (1 or 2) to get his confidence back. It's more confidence than ability here on this one.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]right, 111, but also if Buch were to throw 1 inning here a long relief of 3 inn in a game and righted himself, he could then go right back to the rotation to try again. It may just take a quality relief performance (1 or 2) to get his confidence back. It's more confidence than ability here on this one.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    I think it would be harder for him to have confidence and succeed performing a role in which he has almost no experience.  I think he has two relief appearances covering two IP ... one in 2007 and one in 2008.  I'd want to see more than a couple of innings of success to put him back in the rotation.  I'm thinking at least a few QS in AAA before he comes back to the rotation.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    well, if it happens, it will have to happen very soon. My guess is either an Oswalt or a veteran will be acquired soon and it will be the Wakefield ripple effect where now there is this No. 6 starter in the mix. Clay then could go to the minors to pitch effectively, but I really have never been a fan of using minor league performances to determine the return of MLB performance. Sometimes, it's just that the guy does a better job of getting out weaker hitters instead of it being he's now got his command, delivery back in order. It's hard to tell what is preventing Clay from pitching effectively. Hard to diagnose. I hope someone can.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I would move Padilla to starter and actually put Buch in the pen. Maybe he finds a niche there that can help the MLB team. I hate it when guys WITH TALENT go to the minors to work out things (Melancon proves to me that minors and MLB really are like to two different worlds). 
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]
    OK, now we can talk baseball. Padilla is proving to have great value in the set-up role. I would not muck with that. Buchholz is a bit flighty with men on base. I would be reluctant to bring him in to close an inning. Padilla keeps the inherited runners right where they are.
    We won't know whether Melancon's sojourn in Rhode Island did any good until he is brought back up -- if he is.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Hard to be sure when a deal is about to happen, but I'm thinking this current rotation stays put at least until Cook can do a rehab start or two.  No earlier than June, certainly. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Just passing on what I've read (White Sox/Blue Jays media)

    The Blue Jays made a run at acquiring Gavin Floyd a while back. Williams (CWS) was asking for Travis D’Arnaud (Blue Jays #1 Prospect a Catcher) and two Prospect Pitchers (rated B to B+) and a fourth player (mid range prospect). Was Williams overreaching? No doubt, but it is an indication of what the White Sox expect in return for Floyd. The speculation is that the Jays will wait until the trade deadline to see where they are. If they are contending a move for Floyd will take place. The Red Sox were mentioned in the reports I read but the feeling was that Boston didn’t have the players Williams wanted. Floyd is a solid starter, easily a  # 3 starter for Boston, but the question is how much do you Pay and will Williams deal?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Just passing on what I've read (White Sox/Blue Jays media) The Blue Jays made a run at acquiring Gavin Floyd a while back. Williams (CWS) was asking for Travis D’Arnaud (Blue Jays #1 Prospect a Catcher) and two Prospect Pitchers (rated B to B+) and a fourth player (mid range prospect). Was Williams overreaching? No doubt, but it is an indication of what the White Sox expect in return for Floyd. The speculation is that the Jays will wait until the trade deadline to see where they are. If they are contending a move for Floyd will take place. The Red Sox were mentioned in the reports I read but the feeling was that Boston didn’t have the players Williams wanted. Floyd is a solid starter, easily a   # 3 starter for Boston, but the question is how much do you Pay and will Williams deal?
    Posted by Thomasmtom[/QUOTE]

    This has the ring of truth--to me, anyway. Any comment, moonslav.

    Even if Thomasmtom is mistaken, his comments remind me of something I've always believed.  If someone is offering up a pretty good pitcher, they are going to expect an arm and a leg in return.  Williams, for example, might laugh at Youk, but be willing to settle for Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Iglesias, and Bailey. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : OK, now we can talk baseball. Padilla is proving to have great value in the set-up role. I would not muck with that. Buchholz is a bit flighty with men on base. I would be reluctant to bring him in to close an inning. Padilla keeps the inherited runners right where they are. We won't know whether Melancon's sojourn in Rhode Island did any good until he is brought back up -- if he is.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    He has been this year, which is weird b/c he wasn't the last three years.

    LOB %
    09   77  
    10   79
    11   79
    12   64

    The top 10 starters in MLB at the moment average about 75% LOB

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    This has the ring of truth--to me, anyway. Any comment, moonslav.

    I do not pretend to know what the CWS want in return and who they like on our team. I must have made 20 suggested offers this winter, most including Middlebrooks or Ranaudo. I'm not sure I want to part with Middlebrooks now, but I guess it looks like the White Sox wanted a catcher.

    I'd still give:

    Salty, Ranaudo, Anderson and Coyle for Floyd

    or

    Lava, Ranaudo, Anderson and Tejada

    Maybe the CWS like Mortensen or Melancon.

    Essentially, I have held the position that we can afford to take a hit on offense and some of the future for a solid arm like Floyd for 2 years at a $3.9M/yr luxury tax hit.

    Wandy would involve the Stros paying some of his deal.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : He has been this year, which is weird b/c he wasn't the last three years. LOB % 09   77   10   79 11   79 12   64 The top 10 starters in MLB at the moment average about 75% LOB
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]
    Interesting.
    He looks sort of flighty in general. He chews on himself in the dugout after being yanked and for the remainder of the way.
    I think that he deserves more sympathy than censure. 

     
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