A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The roster is set. The season begins. Questions and concerns remain. Injuries have already begun...

    60-day DL
    RHP John Lackey 

    RHP Bobby Jenks

    RHP Andrew Bailey 

    RHP Chris Carpenter

    OF Ryan Kalish

    15-day DL
    OF Carl Crawford

    LHP Rich Hill

    RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka

    LHP Andrew Miller

    Not a good start to the season, but some on this list were known injury issues for quite some time. The loss of Bailey could be crucial since the pen was already a great concern after losing Paps to the Phillies and Bard to the rotation (at least for now).

    Some of us have had some differences over the 25 man roster choices, most notably the Iggy and Lava demotions, but there is a good chance both of those two will see significant time in Boston this year at some point. 

    Some have questioned the choice of a 13th pitcher to start the season. The choices have been made. Here's the opening day 25-man roster:

     

    Pitchers (13): 

    RHP Alfredo Aceves, RHP Matt Albers, RHP Scott Atchison, RHP Daniel Bard, RHP Josh Beckett, RHP Michael Bowden, RHP Clay Buchholz, LHP Felix Doubront, LHP Jon Lester, RHP Mark Melancon, LHP Franklin Morales, RHP Vicente Padilla, LHP Justin Thomas.

    Catchers (2): Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Kelly Shoppach

    Infielders (5): Mike Aviles, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Nick Punto, Kevin Youkilis.

    Outfielders (4): Jacoby Ellsbury, Darnell McDonald, Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney.

    DHs (1): David Ortiz.

     

    The rotation will start like this:
    1) Lester
    2) Beckett
    3) Buchholtz
    4) Doubront (see statement after Bard)
    5) Bard (perhaps until Dice-K returns or Cook is promoted)

    Closer: Aceves (until Bailey returns)
    Set-Up: Melancon (perhaps replaced by Bard later in the season)
    RP3) Morales 
    RP4) Albers
    RP5) Atchison
    RP6) Padilla
    RP7) Bowden (Out of options)
    RP8) Thomas (until Hill returns)
    There will be debates about the line-up. My guess is this is what Bobby will use as a template when CC is healthy. I expect Bobby to be more flexible than Tito. 

        vs RHPs     vs LHPs
    1) L Ells          L Ells
    2) R Pedey     R Pedey
    3) L AGon       L AGon
    4) L Ortiz        R Youk
    5) R Youk       L Ortiz
    6) L Craw       R Ross
    7) S Salty       L Craw
    8) L Sween*  L Shopp
    9) R Aviles     R Aviles
    (*Ross may start vs many RHPs)

    While Crawford is out, I expect DMac will play LF vs LHPs and Ross will be in RF. Ross should play in LF vs RHPs with Sweeney in right. When Crawford comes back, I expect a pitcher to be sent to AAA and we will retain DMac as long as possible.

    I hope we can keep this thread mostly about the Red Sox and issues directly effecting the Sox. Let's keep it civil. Refrain from personal attacks, blatant misrepresentations of other posters' positions, and going off on unrelated tangents. The Sox are going to be a fun bunch to watch this year. I'm pumped up!

    Let the games begin. 

    Play Ball!


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I think we'll have a pretty good club this year. Gonzo will be a triple crown contender most of the year, and Pedey will have his usual stellar year. Doubront, I think is going to surprise some people. To me he looks a lot like Lester did when he came up to stay. He has good velocity and sink on his fastball and some secondary pitches that I think will work for him. Also I think Aceves can be a very good closer. I like the Red Sox this year.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    My Boston Red Sox 2012 Projections: 

    Catcher: 

    MLB '11: .245/.314/.390/.704

    Sox '11: .229/.291/.446/.737

     

    2011:

    Salty (384)  .236  16  56  (.289/.452/.741)

    VTek (250)  .221  11  36 (.300/.423/.723)

     

    Although the Sox placed 10th in catcher OPS, we were 24th in OBP (5th in Slg%). Our catchers hit 29 HRs (1 away from 2nd place) and had 100 RBIs (2nd in MLB). A pretty productive season overall, even though there was a sharp dip in September.

    With the departure of VTek (who actually had a higher OBP than Salty), one might expect a decline in overall offense from the catcher position this year.  However, Tito never used a L-R catcher platoon last year, but instead used the personal caddy method. I expect that Bobby V will give Salty the chance to catch everyone and stick more to the L-R methodology. If he does this, we will see better numbers from Salty, since he hits RHPs much better (2011: .247/.304/.481/.786), and better numbers vs LHPs, since Shoppach hits LHPs very well: 

    (Career: .274/.373/.536/.909).

     

    2012 Projections:

    Salty (450) .250  15  60  (.300/.470/.770)

    Shop (200) .250  10  25  (.340/.430/.770)

    Sox:  (650) .250  25  85 (.315/.455/.770)  +.033

     

    First Base:

    MLB '11: .263/.338/.439/.778

    Sox '11: .329/.402/.541/.944

     

    2011:

    AGon (715) .338  27  117 (.410/.548/.957)

     

    AGon had a great season, but I expect this year to be even better. We placed 4th in 1B OPS last season. I expect less BA, but more power at 1B this year. I know AGon will not get all the PAs at 1B, but for easier calculations, I will set it up this way. Here' my 2012 projection:

     

    AGon/Sox: (720) .300  45  130  (.410/.590/1.000) +.056

     

    Second base:

    MLB '11: .255/.316/.378/.694

    Sox '11: .308/.388/.474/.862

     

    2011:

    Pedroia (731) .307  21  91 (.387/.474/.861)

     

    We had the best OPS in MLB at 2B last year. I expect the same in 2012. Go Pedey, Go!

     

    Pedey/Sox: (740) .300  20  100  (.395/.475/.870) +.008

     

    Third Base:

    MLB '11: .254/.314/.391/.705

    Sox '11: .270/.362/.449/.812

     

    2011:

    Youk (517) .258/.373/.459/.833

    Lowrie (133 @ 3B) .275/.326/.433/.759

     

    This is a tough position to call this year. Since I am assuming 100% health, I am going to project a big improvement here, but I will not give Youk all the PAs. Youk had seen his OPS improve every season of his career until last year's steep declining. I will put him closer to his 2010 numbers than 2011's (I realize Youk is more likely to have 450 PAs than 600, but these projections are base on 100% health. I used Punto here, but we may see Aviles, especially if Iggy plays SS):

     

    Youk:   (600) .300  20  100  (.400/.540/.940)

    Punto: (100) .250     0    15  (.325/.325/.650)

    Sox:     (700) .290  20  115  (.390/.510/.900) +.088

     

    Short Stop:

    MLB '11: .258/.314/.370/.684

    Sox '11: .279/.330/.401/.730

     

    2011:

    Scutaro: (445) .299  7  54  (.358/.423/.781)

    Lowrie (@SS): (187) .238/.278/.360/.639

     

    With the departure of Scooty, this is a tough call. Personally, I'd like to see Iggy as the FT SS, and we'd see a huge drop in SS OPs if we did, but I am going to give Aviles the nod at SS this year with help from Punto (I won't count Iggy). Here are my 2012 SS projections:

     

    Aviles: (550) .290  10  60 (.325/.415/.740)

    Punto: (100)  .250  0  15 (.325/.325/.650)  

    Sox: (650) .290  10  75  (.330/.400/.710) -.020

     

    Left Field:

    MLB '11: .256/.320/.409/.729

    Sox '11: .258/.304/.419/.723

     

    2011:

    Crawford: (538) .255  11  56  (.289/.405/.694)

    Reddick (63) & DMac (50): .260  4  13  (.330/.490/.820)

     

    I'm expecting CC to return to about somewhere between his career norm and his most recent years in TB. My hope is that Bobby V sits CC vs tough lefties, but I doubt that happens. CC should get his normal rest vs lefties and will miss a few games at the start of the season. It's another tough call, but here it is (I am assuming almost all of DMac's PAs are vs LHPs):

     

    Crawford: (600) .290  12  85  (.350/.460/.810)

    Dar. Mac: (100) .275     6  15  (.340/.470/.810)

    Sox LF Total:     .285  18  100  (.345/.465/.800) +.077

     

    Center Field:

    MLB '11: .261/.325/.406/.731

    Sox '11: .316/.371/.548/.918

     

    2011:

    Ellsbury: (729) .321  32  105  (.376/.552/.928)

     

    I am projecting that Jacoby will come close to his 2011 numbers.

     

    Sox: (770)  .320  30  100  (.380/.530/.910)  -.018

     

    Right Field:

    MLB '11: .263/.335/.429/.765

    Sox '11: .233/.299/.353/.652

     

    2011:

    Drew (270)  .231  4  22 (.322/.316/.638)

    Redd (192) .257  3  13  (.302/.374/.676)

    DMac (86)  .256  4  14  (.314/.487/.801)

    Cam  (84)  .171   3    8  (.226/.316/.542)

     

    2011 saw a big mix of players in RF. The .652 OPS in RF was 113 points below the league average. Since RF has become one of the best hitting positions in MLb of late, this is totally unacceptable. Many will disagree with Ben on not assigning a top priority status to getting a RH'd slugger RF'er, but I think those posters will be surprised by the steep improvement in our RF production this year. Cody Ross has incredible numbers vs LHPs and not bad numbers vs RHPs as well, and Sweeney does very well vs righties. My guess is that Bobby V will play Ross vs all lefties and about half the RHPs that Ross has a good history against. I know many here do not like or are not familar with successful platoons, but I see this working out nicely for the Sox. Here are some telling numbers:

     

    Career:

    Ross (per 630 PA): .265  23  88  (.323/.456/.779)

    vs LHP:  .282  38  120  (.349/.563/.912)

    vs RHP:  .253  18    75  (.313/.414/.727)

    Sweeney (per 630 PAs)

    vs RHPs: .296  6  70  (.352/.402/.754) 

     

    If we can give Ross 220 PAs vs LHPs and 200 vs RHPs, and give Sweeney 220 vs RHPs and 30 vs LHPs, their overall numbers might look like this:

    C Ross (420) .270  25  90  (.335/.490/.825)

    Sween (250) .290    2  25  (.340/.390/.730)

    Total Sox: (670) .280  27  115  (.335/.440/.775) +.123

     

    Designated Hitter:

    MLB '11: .268/.342/.431/.773

    Sox '11: .308/.394/.531/.925

     

    2011:

    D Ortiz: (605) .309  29  96  (.398/.554/.953)

     

    Papi turns 37 in November. He put up some nice numbers in 2011, although his RBI total was a bit low for a line-up like the Sox had last year. I'm going to project a drop off in 2012:

     

    Sox: (680)  .275  25  120  (.375/.525/.900) -.025

     

    Overall, it looks like we will see some big gains at some slots, and just a few positions where we stay about even of lose ground:

    RF: +.123

    3B: +.088

    LF: +.077

    1B: +.056

    C:   +.033

    2B: +.008

    CF: -.018

    SS: -.020

    DH: -.025

     

    Overall: ~ + .030 in OPS

     

    I realize my numbers are based on some shaky ground, such as no injuries and projected platoon L-R splits, but I do feel like our offense has a strong potential to improve over 2011. RF should easily improve, while guessing the Youk and CC's improvements are a bit more speculative. Losses at SS, DH and CF might be much larger than I showed, but I find it hard to believe our overall OPS will be lower this year than 2011. I hope we can be more balanced and consistent, but that is a hard thing to predict.

     

    With some injuries, we can probably expect just about the same offense as last year, but I still think the gain in RF and LF will more than offset possible declines in CF and at SS & DH.

     

    Now for the pitching numbers:

     

    This is a difficult task to attempt with so many unknown factors involved, especially with the possibilities of Bard and Aceves moving from starter to reliever and back.

     

    First, a look at what our returning pitchers did in 2011 and what we lost from 2011 and will be replacing:

     

    Not returning: 

                    IP    H     ER  BB

    Lackey  160  203  114  56

    Wake     155 163    88   47

    Paps        64   50    21   10

    Wheel      49   47    24     8

    Bedard    38   41    17    18

    Weiland   25  29    21     12

    B Jenks   16  22    11     13

    Okajima    8    7       4      5

    Williams   8    10     6      5

    Hottovy    4     4      3      3

    T Miller     2     0      0      0

    D Reyes    2     2     3      2

    D Mac       1     1      2      2

    Total:   532  579   314   181   5.31 ERA /  1.43 WHIP

     

    Returning:

    Beckett    193   146   62   52

    Lester      192  166   74    75

    Aceves     114   84   33    42

    Buch          83   76   32    31

    Bard           73   46   27    24

    A Miller      65   77   40    41

    Albers        65   62   34    31

    Dice-K        37  32    22    23

    Morales     32   30    13    11

    Atchison   30   31    11     6

    Bowden     20  19     9    11

    Doubront   10   12    7      8

    R Hill           8     3     0      3

    Tazawa       3     3      2     1

    Total:     925  787  366  319  3.55 ERA  /  1.20 WHIP

     

    My guess is we will replace the departing 532 innings with this:

    Cook           90

    Buch         +90

    Doub         +90

    Bard          +70

    Melancon    70

    A Bailey       35

    Dice-K        +60

    Padilla          20

    Aceves       +10

    Tazawa       +20

    Morales      +20

    Bowden     +10

    R.Hill          +10

    Beckett      +10

    Lester        +10

    Atch           -20

    A Miller      -65

     

    I can’t help but think these guys can improve on a 5.31 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP

     

    Here’s my breakdown of the 2012 Sox pitching staff (again assuming no new injuries and Dice-K returning in June)

                            (IP)    GS  W-L   ERA   WHIP 

    S1  Beckett    (205)  32   20-5   2.70    1.00

    S2  Lester      (205)  32   18-8   3.30    1.15

    S3  Buch        (170)  30   16-9  3.50    1.20

    S4  Doub        (100)  18    8-6   4.50    1.35

    S5  Bard         (140)  17    8-5   4.25    1.20

    S6  Dice-K      (100)  16    7-5   4.25    1.40

    S7  Cook         (90)   13    4-4    4.75   1.40

    S8  Padilla       (20)    4     1-2    5.25   1.45

                                       ERA / WHIP

    C    A.  Bailey   (35)  3.25  / 1.15

    R2  Melancon  (75)   3.25  / 1.20

    R3  Aceves     (125)  2.90 / 1.10

    R4  Morales     (65)   3.70/  1.20

    R5  Tazawa      (35)   3.90/  1.25

    R6  Bowden     (30)   4.00/  1.30

    R7  R. Hill         (20)   4.20/  1.30

     

    OVERALL SOX 2012 PROJECTION:

    With no new injuries: 99-63

    With normal injuries:   97-65

    With projected injuries: 95-67

     

    My Projection: 94 – 68

     

    I project we barely win the wildcard with something like this:

     

    NYY  97-65    TEX  92-70    DET  92-70

    BOS  94-68    ANA 94-68

    TB     93-69

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    That looks about right me to me. I think Aviles might be a bit better than your projection, but Ells is going to fall off a little, so I think the offense is kind of a wash, although a healthy Gonzo could add some runs. What do you think of Aceves as closer moon?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I like Aviles on offense and hope he does OK in the field.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    So no thoughts on Aceves as the closer?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Once we lost Paps, I thought Bard was the logical replacement, but that's not an option right now. I really like Aceves in the role of long relief/set-up man, but he is the current best choice to close. I see him able to pitch 2 and maybe even 3 innings to close some games. This could get interesting in a good way.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from iamme17. Show iamme17's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]My Boston Red Sox 2012 Projections:    ( OVERALL SOX 2012 PROJECTION: With no new injuries: 99-63 With normal injuries:   97-65 With projected injuries: 95-67   My Projection: 94 – 68   I project we barely win the wildcard with something like this:   NYY  97-65    TEX  92-70    DET  92-70 BOS  94-68    ANA 94-68 TB     93-69
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Texas gets to play 54 games against oakland,seatle and astros....the sox get to play 54 games against the yanks,jays and rays,the #1,#8,#10 scoring leaders out of the 30 mlb teams last year and with 2 of those with improved offenses this year and the #10 rays have the best pitching in all of baseball.It's not impossible for the sox to win more games than the rangers but based on their schedule i'd say the rangers have almost a 10 game lead without even a game played yet.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Once we lost Paps, I thought Bard was the logical replacement, but that's not an option right now. I really like Aceves in the role of long relief/set-up man, but he is the current best choice to close. I see him able to pitch 2 and maybe even 3 innings to close some games. This could get interesting in a good way.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I agree, I'm looking at Aceves as a Bruce Campbell -Bruce Sutter type closer who can go multiple innings if necessary. I also think Doubront is a potential 15 game winner this year. The offense will be fine, the interesting thing to me will be to see how the pitching shakes out.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I was high on Doubie last season, and him coming to camp out of shape turned me off. I mean how does a kid fighting for a slot on a championship seeking team, not get in shape before ST?

    I'm willing to cut everyone some slack, and I think you could be right. He's got talent, and maybe something to prove: a sometimes lethal combination.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]
    Posts: 23423
    First: 9/27/2005
    Last: 4/4/2012
    I was high on Doubie last season, and him coming to camp out of shape turned me off. I mean how does a kid fighting for a slot on a championship seeking team, not get in shape before ST?


    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I didn't really get that either, but he came to camp in shape this year and has been showing all 4 pitches to good effect so far. I really like the idea of another power leftie in the rotation, especially against the Yanks, especially given my wagers with jessey, jete, teilhardian and nhsteven.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The great thing about Doubie winning close to 15 games is when Dice-K comes back, Bard will go back where he belongs.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]The great thing about Doubie winning close to 15 games is when Dice-K comes back, Bard will go back where he belongs.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Closing.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I think in a couple months or so the rotation may have the 3 plus Dice and Cook
    and the pen will add Bard and Dubront.  Don't know why, but don't share this sense that Doubront might shine; let's hope I'm wrong!
    Have 0 confidence in Salty, hope I'm wrong there too but don't think so.  My hope is that he has a little hitting hot streak with power early, which he does sometime, and they trade him & bring in Lava.
    I'm fine with Aviles at short for now; feel youk might bounce back well.
    Go sox! hope springs eternal.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Doubront and Bard are not ready for full season duty, i.e. 200 innings. Having Matsuzaka and Cook to contribute would sure help but chances are 2-3 starters get hurt during the season anyway. Let's just hope any injuries are not major. We can not deal with a lot of injuries at the starter slot. 

    Is it just me or is the pen the major problem now? There is a decent amount of talent there but no reason to think they will be much above mlb average IMO.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I think in a couple months or so the rotation may have the 3 plus Dice and Cook and the pen will add Bard and Dubront.  Don't know why, but don't share this sense that Doubront might shine; let's hope I'm wrong! Have 0 confidence in Salty, hope I'm wrong there too but don't think so.  My hope is that he has a little hitting hot streak with power early, which he does sometime, and they trade him & bring in Lava. I'm fine with Aviles at short for now; feel youk might bounce back well. Go sox! hope springs eternal.
    Posted by soxnewmex[/QUOTE]

    I agree with your take on Salty. Here's a recap of my positions this winter. I'm sure there will be some I get wrong, and I will be blasted for them by many who failed to take a position at all on the issues listed below. (Not in order of importance.)

    1) Iggy's defensive differential over Aviles outweitghs the offensive differential Aviles has over him. (I like Aviles and think he will do better than Scutaro would have done here this year. He will hit as well as Scoot did in 2011 or better.)

    2) Salty should have been traded while his stock was higher than last spring, or he could have started in AAA (if he passed conditional waivers on his last option). We will see Salty's negative effect on our pitcher's ERAs this year. This leads right into #3.

    3) Lava should start at catcher 90-110 times and DH vs some lefties (or more if Papi reverts to having issues vs lefties).

    4) Bard should have been named the closer the day we let Paps go for good. It's not so much about him not working out as a starter. He may do fine, but it is more about the fact that we lost Paps, and our pen is a serious issue.

    5) I liked the Reddick for Bailey and Sweeney deal. Sweeney is as good as Reddick, and getting Ross will be a great compliment and make us forget all about Reddick.

    6) I loved the Lowrie and Weiland for Melancon deal. Melancon might need some adjustment time, but Jed & Kyle were not helping matters.

    7) I don't think we needed Punto (see my Iggy point) as Aviles would have made a fine utility player, but with Iggy playing everyday in AAA, having Punto is an asset.

    8) The Shoppach signing was OK as long as he is used primarily vs LH starters and not as a personal caddy. If 75% of his PAs are vs lefties, he will put up some nice numbers and help steady the staff from the Salty woes.

    9) I loved the Cody Ross signing and was (I think) the second person on his bandwagon in early winter. At $3M for a one year commitment, he could be the steal of the winter. I project a very nice year from Cody, if he stays healthy.

    10) I thought our biggest mistake was not trading for a starter (even if it meant using Reddick to get a starter instead of Bailey/Sweeney). I was a broken record on Gavin Floyd, so if he has a bad season, I will catch some flack. I was willing to give up Middlebrooks, Salty, Anderson and Bowden for Floyd and Ohman. (I'd even consider Ranaudo instead of Anderson & Bowden or Salty.) This would have moved Bard to the pen - where he belongs and strengthened both the rotation and Pen. (Floyd has been a solid low #2/high #3  type AL starter for 4 years.) I also rate Cecchini and Bogaerts over Middlebrooks as Youk's possible 2014 replacement.

    11) I do not want Crawford in the top 5 of the order, except maybe batting 2nd vs RHPs only. I think he should bat 9th vs LHPs or ride the bench vs about half the lefty starters in favor of lefty-killer DMac or Ross. (I still hold to my positions that CC is a glorified platoon player. and that his contract will cripple the Sox for the length of his deal.)

    12) I want Aceves to stay in the pen. I'm OK with him being the closer as long as they keep Bard as a starter, but I'd prefer Bard as the closer from day 1 of ST. (Id have had Doubront at #4 and Cook at #5 to start the season.)

    13) I think AGon will hit over 40 HRs and be top 3 MVP.

    14) I think Beckett will break the "even year curse" and have one of his best seasons ever.

    15) I think Dice-K contributes in a big way when he returns. (Give him 4-5 starts to adjust.)

    16) I think Morales will have a dandy season.

    17) I see minor dips for Jacoby, Papi, and Salty.

    18) I think Doubront will do fine.

    19) I have little faith in Cook or the other projects, but we just need one of the 8 to do OK. I have no faith in Andrew Miller.

    20) I like Tazwa over Bowden, but since Bowden has no options left, I'm fine with him being on the 25 man roster to start the season.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Is it just me or is the pen the major problem now? There is a decent amount of talent there but no reason to think they will be much above mlb average IMO.

    With Bailey out, it is substandard.

    I still think a golden opportunity was missed by not trading for a starter. We could have had this 7-man pen had we done so:

    Closer: Bailey/Bard
    Set-up: (Bard) Melancon
    Aceves, Morales, Albers (until Hill returns), & Bowden (Doubront when Dice-K returns)


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Lots of great stuff here Moon. I wish I were retired and could post my projections! I just can't take the time. Maybe I'll put together something soon, if I can.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It appears that Smelly/Law09 have nothing better to do on opening day than bump old threads.

    Thread bump.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I was high on Doubie last season, and him coming to camp out of shape turned me off. I mean how does a kid fighting for a slot on a championship seeking team, not get in shape before ST? I'm willing to cut everyone some slack, and I think you could be right. He's got talent, and maybe something to prove: a sometimes lethal combination.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I thought you were high on a couple of doobies for most of last season.......

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Lots of great stuff here Moon. I wish I were retired and could post my projections! I just can't take the time. Maybe I'll put together something soon, if I can.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    boom, we don't always agree, but you are always welcome here. Short snipets are fine, and thanks for your tireless work on our prospect updates.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Looking forward to real baseball and of course, expect pronouncements of doom every time the team loses a game for the first month.  Some concerns will be warranted and most will be pure hysteria.  I'll take a stab at a few predictions:

    1 - Sox will have more starters than they know what to do with (at least for first half).  They will do some juggling to keep as many around as possible and that will probably involve suspicious DLs and extended rehab assignments.

    2 - Dice won't return as quickly as people think, but not because he isn't ready (see #1).  He will shine in the second half.

    3 - Andrew Miller will not pitch for the Sox this year.

    4 - Sox will trade for pitching ... of the relief variety.

    5 - Salty's value will improve and he will be traded ... Lars too.

    6 - Albers will be crowded out of the pen and will not finish the season with the Sox.

    7 - Crawford buyer's remorse will be even worse than last year.

    8 - Padilla will be to 2012 what Aceves was to 2011.

    9 - Softy/Hank will have a new name by the ASB Tongue Out
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    1. The forgotten man didn't miss many flyballs like that to right in 4 years.

    2.  Not new news here but Ellsbury couldn't even throw it past the mound on a string.  That is Damonesqe.

    3.  I love baseball. Go Sox




     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Tom, agreed that it would seem that we had a chance on Ellsbury's play but it wasn't Damonesque! It wasn't that bad. Lots of speed at 3rd. A better arm would have had him though. Reddick. Drew. One would think. Damon couldn't throw somone out at 2nd on that play!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It was a bad throw. It was a near typical Ellsbury throw, but not quite Damonesgue.
     
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