A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Well Buritto,
    It would have to be in left.  He's incapable in right or center,

    Although McDonald does do a decent job out there, I, for one, would encourage the experiment.  I'm not so sure Youk would be happy about it though,

    .
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Yes LF was what I meant, I think he played there before. It is only a temporary gig so that Middlebrooks can come up and as soon as Crawford comes back then the team could re-evaluate.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcjcjcjc. Show jcjcjcjc's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I really hate to sound negative here, but I'm starting to doubt BV's motivational ability. Perhaps his technique worked in the past, but it just doesn't seem to work in todays era.  Pedroia kind of said it all. I know he hasn't the healthy players to work with, but his bizarre choice of vocalization, for example, doesn't give me the feeling of confidence.  Like a lot of you guys, I've played my share of athletics and I really wonder how inspired I would be to play for him.  The Youkilis thing was overblown, but even giving BV the total benefit of the doubt, his whole comment shouldn't have been said to begin with!  As it seems now, his personality is breeding contempt .  Jim Leland is as tough as they come, but his attitude and comments exude confidence and loyalty where players totally respect him.  As of now, I just don't have that same feeling with BV. God, I hope I eat my words in the future. I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Perhaps my comments are emotionally over the top, but I'm doubting his leadership ability...and, I think it's a direct reflection on the play of the players. Can you just imagine the feeling in the clubhouse? We are on a slippery slope here and something must be done soon...good or bad.  
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcjcjcjc. Show jcjcjcjc's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I have never been a fan of bobby valentine. The bench coach from last year.. Hall should be managing this team today! I was in Denny's the other day... wakefield makes a lousy plate of pancakes!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]...Who would have guessed that the BP would be this bad. God awful bad.... You can't subtract Papelbon and Bard from a pen and move the long man to closer and still expect the same results.  I really thought leaving Bard in the pen and Aceves as the long/mid guy made the most sense, and then hope that Bailey, Melancon, and a full season of Morales would make up for Pap's loss. Once we failed to get a legitimate 3rd starter, the table was set, at least until Dice-K's return. I paused today's game after being up 7-0, went to a movie and dinner, then came home and almost tossed my cookies. That was sick. Sickening. Disgusting. Nothing more to say.  I've never been one to give up early, but this is sad. Very sad.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon - you and I discussed this during the off-season a couple of times. Boston made 3 big mistakes.

    1) They didn't reach out to Paps during the 2011 season and let him know that he was wanted. Paps jumps at the first big offer. This was a penny wise - dollar foolish move on their part. You have a $180 million team - you should have said to h*ll with the luxury tax and gone to $194 million and signed Paps. While so many here were waiting for the day that Paps would leave, I always commented that as a Yankee fan, I also waited for that day.

    2) Went ahead with the Bard experiment after losing Paps - was no lesson learned from the Joba disaster? Not saying Bard will be ruined - he has amazing talent, but you took what was basically a lock in the late innings and took it away.

    3) Thinking Bailey could handle the situation. He was fragile to begin with and Oakland isn't Boston and Baily is no Paps.

    During the game yesterday, they had a dugout interview and even with NY down by 9, you could see that Girardi was salvating at the thought of getting into Boston's pen. There was no fear in his eyes and that is not a good thing if you are Boston. Bard should be moved back immediately.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    During the game yesterday, they had a dugout interview and even with NY down by 9, you could see that Girardi was salvating at the thought of getting into Boston's pen. There was no fear in his eyes and that is not a good thing if you are Boston.

    That's always been a part of our winning strategy: get to the opponent's pen early (by seeing a lot of pitches early), and hold down the fort with our own 3 deep strong pen.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]During the game yesterday, they had a dugout interview and even with NY down by 9, you could see that Girardi was salvating at the thought of getting into Boston's pen. There was no fear in his eyes and that is not a good thing if you are Boston. That's always been a part of our winning strategy: get to the opponent's pen early (by seeing a lot of pitches early), and hold down the fort with our own 3 deep strong pen.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Which is what you no longer have.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Well, a couple of comments.  Burrito, I agree that Bi Valve is not really at fault here.  I don't know how one can fault him for the failure of the bullpen.  Whomever he goes to lays an egg.  I don't know if the players like him or not, but right now we're losing because our BP sucks.  Priority number one should be reorganizing the pen.  Next, I know what you're trying to do, but I don't like the Youk to the OF idea.  He's already got pulls and I think putting him out there and making him run would just exacerbate his issues.  Finally, I'm not totally against bringing the young guys up, but if that happens, then I think we have another set of problems with the vets who might be grousing.  I don't think hitting was that much of an issue yesterday--it was pitching.  So I'd keep the young guys playing and improving down below and bring them up next year en masse--unless you make some trades mid year,
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, this time of year I go to another site here which discusses the NFL draft and possible Patriot draft strategy.  One of the posters there whom I admire was talking about the importance of statistics in evaluting players.  He said one of his college professors told him, "Without statistics, you're just another a--hole with an opinion."  It made me chuckle.  So I just wanted to take the time to thank you for time spent on reporting statistics so some of us can "adjust" how we feel about baseball issues.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : Which is what you no longer have.
    Posted by jesseyeric[/QUOTE]

    I know. We went from 3 to none.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Moon, this time of year I go to another site here which discusses the NFL draft and possible Patriot draft strategy.  One of the posters there whom I admire was talking about the importance of statistics in evaluting players.  He said one of his college professors told him, "Without statistics, you're just another a--hole with an opinion."  It made me chuckle.  So I just wanted to take the time to thank you for time spent on reporting statistics so some of us can "adjust" how we feel about baseball issues.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    Thanks Critt. I always enjoy your takes.

    I do use stats to back-up my opinions, but rarely to form them.

    (I'm a Packer fan from my childhood days living 2 blocks from County Stadium in Milwaukee, so I can't help you with Patriot draft picks.)

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I cast my vote for bringing up Cook and putting Bard in the BP.  I don't like moving Doubie who is performing well in his role.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I  agree.  We need Pen help, and trading for it now would be very costly in terms of prospects.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm more than a little shell-shocked, and never saw this coming, but there were signs this spring that all was not right in the nation. First of all, throughout spring training Baily, Melancon and Youk were all awful. Baily was probably hurt but the other two were not, as far as we know. Youk was a statue at third base and took too many pitches to get himself in the hole and his bat is no longer quick enough to get him out of the hole. Aceves was hot and cold throughout the spring, with no in between, and both hot and cold were in the extreme. I didn't like Bard as a starter as he started to get his pitches up the second and third time through the order and often appeared to be over-throwing. That's just the opposite that one would expect from someone trying to go from short stints to longer stints. I think he should be closing NOW and Cook should be the fifth starter; he looked great this spring and it has continued against AAA competition. Longer term, Bard may be an excellent starter, but there are times when the needs of the team supercede the needs of the player, and now is one of those times.
     I may be all wet on this count but I don't feel like the pitchers in general have any confidence in Salty. I've noticed more than a few "discussions" in the dugout after innings that seem to be less than cordial. He had a big day at the plate yesterday, but his CERA suffered once again and he had a very weak passed ball that a high school catcher would have had. I don't think it would be a panic move to activate both Lavarnway and Middlebrooks with both Youk and Salty struggling. I think trading for Byrd borders on a panic move as he is no better than the crop of outfielders we have.
     Finally, I think Amp is on to something as far as Bobby V is concerned. I admit that I wanted to see him get the job after Tito, but so far he has been a disappointment. He seems lost in the dugout and his body language seems to be saying "can you believe how bad my team is" to no one in particular, except maybe the TV cameras. The bulk of the blame obviously has to fall on the players, but I'm sure they all fear that Bobby doesn't have their backs and none of them appears to have Bobby's.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Got to thinking again about the high-priced player contracts that may cripple the Sox future, and what possibilities we might have to alleviate some of the financial strain, so that we can build a stronger team in the future.

    Here's a look at our highest priced players and my opinion on the likelihood of trade and some possible trade ideas.

    $22M/yr
    AGon $154M/7 ('12-'18): I seriously doubt he will be traded soon, but stranger things have happened.

    $20.3M/yr
    Crawford $142M/7 ('11-'17): I'm not sure if there are any teams out there willing to take CC and a large part of his contract, but the Vernon Wells deal did happen. Some might feel that trading CC and paying part of his contract will never bring back enough in return to compensate for what we may still get from CC over the next 5.5 years of his deal. My thought is that there are basically 2 ways we could trade CC:
    1) Pay over half of his deal and get prospects back from a contender who feels CC can put him over the top.
    2) Deal CC for another salary dump type player who costs less and maybe can rebound with a change of scenery and help us at another position. 
    (I will provide a salary-dump players list of note soon.)

    $17M/year
    Beckett $68M ('11-'14M): Many teams would like to have Beckett on their team, but maybe only 1 or 2 at his salary. The return in trade would not be much, unless it was a large salary in return. While I don't think Beckett is worth $17M a year until 2014, I do still think he can be a great pitcher, and can't imagine us winning a ring anytime soon without getting something great in return.

    $16.5M/year (or $13.8M counting option year)
    Lackey $82.5M ('10-'14 plus conditional medical option at min wage): Again, another player that no team wants at this cost. A trade for another salary dump might work. If the medical option adds a year at minimum wage, then Lackey is due about $32 over the 3 years from '13-'15 or about $11M/yr. I suppose he could earn close to that money, and it might be worth keeping him rather than trading him and paying 75% of his salary anyways.

    $14.575M/yr
    Ortiz ($14.575M '12 only): David can be offered arb, signed to an extension, or let walk. There are arguments to be made to keep this sports icon or to let him go. I suppose if we are 12 or more back by the deadline, we could trade him to a contender in need of a DH, but I seriously doubt that will happen.

    $10.3M/yr
    Youkilis ($41.125M '09-'12 with $13M option for '14- $0.25M club option): With his recent injury history, I'm not sure he is tradeable this year, and his option is a question for this off-season.

    $8.6M/yr
    Matsusaka $52M ('07-'12): Given that Dice-K will not return until May at the earliest, a 2012 trade is very unlikely. This is his last year of his deal, so we can assume he will not be back next year.

    $8.05M/yr
    Ellsbury $8.05M ('12 only then 1 arb year): There is a chance we could trade Jacoby this deadline or winter in order to avoid losing him to free agency after '13 and not getting anything in return. What we could get in return for Jacoby is something that has been debated and discussed many times already.

    $6.7M/yr
    Pedroia $40.5M ('09-'14 with '15 club option at $11M/ $0.5M buyout): Pedey's not going anywhere.

    $6M/yr
    Lester $30M ('09-'13 plus '14 club option at $13M/$0.25M buyout): I seriously doubt Lester will ever be traded. At $6M a year against the luxury tax number, he's a bargain until 2014's option year.

    $6M/yr
    Jenks $12M ('11-'12): Too injured to be tradeable, but he's gone next year.

    Others over $2M/yr:
    Buch $29.945M/4 plus option for '16)
    Bailey: $3.9M/1 (then 2 Arbs)
    CRoss: $3M/1
    Salty: $2.5M/1 (then 1 Arb)
    Iggy: $8.25M/4 ('10-'13 then Arbs)






     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    We need to bite the bullet and pick up a couple of relievers at some point soon. We should have been better off but the wheels fell off the badly constructed cart. Bailey was likely to get injured. Melancon was a good pick up but not a sure thing either. We didn't get our starter so we had to move Bard to the rotation. Etc, Etc, Etc,...we tried to do it on the cheap and it didn't work out. 

    Now we need to pay the piper or just play out the string and maybe unload a few people for prospects. I've got no problem with either option. It's not like more of the same is going to work to get my viewership. I'm for rebuilding by the break if they don't start turning it around.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    We need to bite the bullet and pick up a couple of relievers at some point soon. We should have been better off but the wheels fell off the badly constructed cart. Bailey was likely to get injured. Melancon was a good pick up but not a sure thing either. We didn't get our starter so we had to move Bard to the rotation. Etc, Etc, Etc,...we tried to do it on the cheap and it didn't work out. 

    Now we need to pay the piper or just play out the string and maybe unload a few people for prospects. I've got no problem with either option. It's not like more of the same is going to work to get my viewership. I'm for rebuilding by the break if they don't start turning it around.

    We all know we are more than a couple relievers away from contending. With CC and Dice-K close to returning, maybe things aren't as bad as they look right now, but I'm running out of hope real quick.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    On a more positive note the PawSox are all alone in 1st place. Middlebrooks, Lavarnaway; and apparently Alex Hassan, Mauro Gomez and Tony Thomas are all crushing the ball. I don't even know who Tony Thomas is and I never heard of Mauro Gomez until spring training. Aaron Cook has a 1.35 ERA and a .191 BAA. Duckworth, Hill, Germano and Ohlendorf are all pitching well too. Maybe it is time to blow it all up. Here's a link to the article on the PawSox' winning streak.
    http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120421&content_id=29305536&vkey=news_t533&fext=.jsp&sid=t533
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]On a more positive note the PawSox are all alone in 1st place. Middlebrooks, Lavarnaway; and apparently Alex Hassan, Mauro Gomez and Tony Thomas are all crushing the ball. I don't even know who Tony Thomas is and I never heard of Mauro Gomez until spring training. Aaron Cook has a 1.35 ERA and a .191 BAA. Duckworth, Hill, Germano and Ohlendorf are all pitching well too. Maybe it is time to blow it all up. Here's a link to the article on the PawSox' winning streak. http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120421&content_id=29305536&vkey=news_t533&fext=.jsp&sid=t533
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    I'm trying to stay positive, but I can't help but think we have a better chance in 2013 or 2014 than 2012.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : I'm trying to stay positive, but I can't help but think we have a better chance in 2013 or 2014 than 2012.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
     First of all, there is plenty of time and games left to make the play-offs. Aaron Cook will be called up to join a starting staff, whose realistic-only question mark is Buchholz, since Buch is coming off a major injury and has yet to show that he's fully recovered, stuff wise. Bard will go to the closer role where he belongs, plus he's probably as good or better than Bailey anyways. Dice-K will be returning in a few weeks and that can only be good for the rotation.
     Marlon Byrd joins an solidifies the outfield defense, which will help the pitchers including middle relievers, who can't get any worse statistically speaking.
     Bobby V was dead right, when he said we have hit bottom, that's exactly the right attitude and approach too.
     To start the season with compounding injuries, jumbled BP roles and doing all of this against the AL's strongest teams, Detroit, Texas, Tampa and NY ought to inspire hope for things to turn around in 2012, no need to pine for the future, IMO.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : I'm trying to stay positive, but I can't help but think we have a better chance in 2013 or 2014 than 2012.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]We might. But we might have a good shot for this year if a few moves are made. Youk to the DL and bring up Middlebrooks. Get something/anything for Salty and Miller. Bring up Lava to catch. Put Cook in the rotation and tell Bard he has to close until someone else can be found. That would give us a lineup for now of

    Aviles
    Pedey
    Gonzo
    Middlebrooks
    Papi
    Lavarnaway
    Sweeney
    Ross/Anderson
    Byrd

    I think that lineup could produce on a steady basis. The rotation would be

    Lester
    Beckett
    Buch
    Doubront
    Cook

    With Morales, Aceves and Bard the top three arms out of the pen. If Youk can get himself strasightened out on a rehab assignment and back to being Youk so much the better. Then when people start getting back from injury it gets even better. If Ells and Crawford are both healthy by the next time we play the Yanks the line up could be

    Ells
    Pedey
    Gonzo
    Middlebrooks (or a rejuvenated Youk)
    Papi
    Lavarnaway
    Sweeney/Ross
    Aviles
    Crawford

    Dice should be back then, so the rotation would be

    Lester
    Beckett
    Buch
    Cook
    Dice

    With the top 4 arms out of the pen being Doubront, Morales, Aceves and Bard. I figure even if Ben semi blows up the team they could still make a good run. If they stick to the status quo though I predict doom and disaster. Also, and I know this will never happen, Bobby should try to feel out Tito to see if he'd be willing to come back as bench coach.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

     Records of Sox's 2012 opponents 47-27...remove their games against us and it's still a strong 37-23, we've been facing some really good teams, and we're not full strength, weigh up eveything folks, don't just give up.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

     The next 10 games' opponents are 20-25. Blue skies ahead.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Youk, I haven't given up. I was one of the few believers last April and at the end of last September. I still think we have a shot, but I like our odds better next year, after we lose lots of salary and not many important pieces.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    A couple stud relievers and we are looking much better. Some of our relievers can salvage their game. I hate moving Bard out of the rotation now, while he is looking decent as a starter. We will need starter depth at some point. 

    Cook is a sinkerball guy isn't he. He could help us as a long relief / spot starting guy. Hill is on his way. We should just gut it out with the pen or see if we can pick up a good reliever for a couple prospects. It's our best shot. 

    I'm not giving up this year but I don't want to sell the farm either. We should be able to pick up a good reliever though without having to give up the entire farm.

    We are going to have to roll the dice some at this point. Think outside the box. Be careful and not trade a valuable asset for nothing but some changes ar warranted. 

     

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