Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II
posted at 4/22/2012 3:33 PM EDT
Got to thinking again about the high-priced player contracts that may cripple the Sox future, and what possibilities we might have to alleviate some of the financial strain, so that we can build a stronger team in the future.
Here's a look at our highest priced players and my opinion on the likelihood of trade and some possible trade ideas.
AGon $154M/7 ('12-'18): I seriously doubt he will be traded soon, but stranger things have happened.
Crawford $142M/7 ('11-'17): I'm not sure if there are any teams out there willing to take CC and a large part of his contract, but the Vernon Wells deal did happen. Some might feel that trading CC and paying part of his contract will never bring back enough in return to compensate for what we may still get from CC over the next 5.5 years of his deal. My thought is that there are basically 2 ways we could trade CC:
1) Pay over half of his deal and get prospects back from a contender who feels CC can put him over the top.
2) Deal CC for another salary dump type player who costs less and maybe can rebound with a change of scenery and help us at another position.
(I will provide a salary-dump players list of note soon.)
Beckett $68M ('11-'14M): Many teams would like to have Beckett on their team, but maybe only 1 or 2 at his salary. The return in trade would not be much, unless it was a large salary in return. While I don't think Beckett is worth $17M a year until 2014, I do still think he can be a great pitcher, and can't imagine us winning a ring anytime soon without getting something great in return.
$16.5M/year (or $13.8M counting option year)
Lackey $82.5M ('10-'14 plus conditional medical option at min wage): Again, another player that no team wants at this cost. A trade for another salary dump might work. If the medical option adds a year at minimum wage, then Lackey is due about $32 over the 3 years from '13-'15 or about $11M/yr. I suppose he could earn close to that money, and it might be worth keeping him rather than trading him and paying 75% of his salary anyways.
Ortiz ($14.575M '12 only): David can be offered arb, signed to an extension, or let walk. There are arguments to be made to keep this sports icon or to let him go. I suppose if we are 12 or more back by the deadline, we could trade him to a contender in need of a DH, but I seriously doubt that will happen.
Youkilis ($41.125M '09-'12 with $13M option for '14- $0.25M club option): With his recent injury history, I'm not sure he is tradeable this year, and his option is a question for this off-season.
Matsusaka $52M ('07-'12): Given that Dice-K will not return until May at the earliest, a 2012 trade is very unlikely. This is his last year of his deal, so we can assume he will not be back next year.
Ellsbury $8.05M ('12 only then 1 arb year): There is a chance we could trade Jacoby this deadline or winter in order to avoid losing him to free agency after '13 and not getting anything in return. What we could get in return for Jacoby is something that has been debated and discussed many times already.
Pedroia $40.5M ('09-'14 with '15 club option at $11M/ $0.5M buyout): Pedey's not going anywhere.
Lester $30M ('09-'13 plus '14 club option at $13M/$0.25M buyout): I seriously doubt Lester will ever be traded. At $6M a year against the luxury tax number, he's a bargain until 2014's option year.
Jenks $12M ('11-'12): Too injured to be tradeable, but he's gone next year.
Others over $2M/yr:
Buch $29.945M/4 plus option for '16)
Bailey: $3.9M/1 (then 2 Arbs)
Salty: $2.5M/1 (then 1 Arb)
Iggy: $8.25M/4 ('10-'13 then Arbs)