A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Both Cecchinni and Bogaerts might start the year in AA ball in 2013. Youk's contract options end after 2013 don't they. It's possible. they also might not pick up Youk's option next year as it's over $13 mil isn't it. 

    Here is to hoping youk has a great year and we end up picking up the option. It couldn't happen to a better guy.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Yes, Youk's option is for $13M with a $1M buyout, so the cost differential is really $12M. 

    There's also a chance Papi walks and Youk becomes the DH and back-up 3Bman/1Bman.

    I think Bogaerts and Cecchini could be in AAA in 2013 if they are not blocked by Iggy and Middlebrooks.

    Aviles and Punto are under control as well.

    There's lots of combination possibilities for 2013 and beyond for our left-side infield.
    2013:
       SS     3B
    Aviles Youk
    Iggy    Youk
    Iggy    Aviles
    Aviles Middlebrooks
    Iggy    Middlebrooks
    2014:
    Aviles Middlebrook
    Aviles Cecchini
    Aviles Bogaerts
    Aviles Coyle
    Iggy    Middlebrooks
    Iggy    Aviles
    Iggy    Cecchini
    Iggy    Bogaerts
    Iggy    Coyle
    Bog     Middlebrooks
    Bog     Aviles
    Bog     Cecchini
    Bog     Coyle

     
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Ha, ha Boom!  Youk is sore alright.  You make me laugh.  Next time you come to the Bay Area, I hope you let me know ahead of time.  Maybe we can meet in the East Bay and watch the Sox take on the A's.  I think we might be a Republican and a Democrat, but I'll share my popcorn...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Youk has been the best example for a player who hustles, works hard,  and plays with/through pain.  He wears the Sox uniform with honor and respect.

    Unfortunately, he can't stop the clock.  Youk, sadly, is starting to break down.  His mobility is obviously limited and I think he has peaked.

    IMHO, it would be foolish trade one of our better prospects,  Middlebrooks, who just may be major league ready real soon...if not already.  To be honest, it really surprises me you guys would even suggest it.  Actually, guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway and others are exactly what management is looking for....youth, talent, and financially controllable for years. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Baseball Brothers, I'm really up tonight.  It's amazing what two wins can do.  I hope we get into a good rhythm with the upcoming opponents and just build up some confidence and swagger.  I'm not much of a prognosticator around here (That sounds like a dirty word...) but I have been saying for two years and even last year when they looked awful that I still had faith in Doubie and Bowden.  I am so happy Doubie is off to a strong start--and I still believe in Bowden and hope he doesn't come back to haunt us.  When I was a kid, they always said the pitchers needed (6) years in the minors before they were ready.  If it wasn't for rushing kids along because of the huge investments, most pitchers might benefit from more time honing the craft.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    As to Youk, he has been the heart of the team.  It seems like just yesterday we were trying to figure out whether he or Pedey was the pivotal player in RS success.  Now he can't stay healthy and doesn't seem to have that jump in his bat.  I guess he's been better the last couple of days.  I just wish he could return to his former performance level.  I think everyone here realizes how lucky the RS have been to have his flexibility, someone who could play 1st or 3rd with almost equal skill.  I just didn't think he'd break down this quicly.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    When does Harness return from the ponies?  Anyone know?  I'd like to get his take on the new pitching coach.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    What is Lars Anderson doing up?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Baseball Brothers, I'm really up tonight.  It's amazing what two wins can do.  I hope we get into a good rhythm with the upcoming opponents and just build up some confidence and swagger.  I'm not much of a prognosticator around here (That sounds like a dirty word...) but I have been saying for two years and even last year when they looked awful that I still had faith in Doubie and Bowden.  I am so happy Doubie is off to a strong start--and I still believe in Bowden and hope he doesn't come back to haunt us.  When I was a kid, they always said the pitchers needed (6) years in the minors before they were ready.  If it wasn't for rushing kids along because of the huge investments, most pitchers might benefit from more time honing the craft.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]
    IDK, six years in the minors would mean that a college pitcher would not make the bigs until age 28. Even a kid right out of high school might not need until age 24 to win a job in ML ball. It depends upon the individual. 
    "Honing their craft" is a topic for another day.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Crit, as a Democrat I would try to get more than some pop corn from you. It would be my civic duty!

    What the heck is a Republican doing in the bay area? That is not appropriate. You must have taken a wrong turn somewhere!

    Amp, I have never been a big Middlebrooks fan but we all should just admit it when we are wrong and revise our assessments given new information when it is available. The guy can field and it now appears the guy has turned into a real solid hitter. He still doesn't have a lot of plate discipline but neither did Mike Lowell and that type of hitter sometimes slots real well at # 6 or 7 in the lineup, behind lots of .400 OBP guys. Lowell had 120 RBI one year for us as a similar profile guy.

    So why trade him for god's sake?  Well, what do we do with him if he's stuck behind Youk? If Youk puts up 20 HR and an OBP close to .380 again at 3rd that is tough to replace.  Again, Middlebrooks is a real solid fielder making him a very valuable prospect if his bat continues to produce. He's a solid all around prospect, almost a prototypical 3rd base guy. But we also have 2 more tremendous 3rd base prospects behind him. Possibly our top 3 prospects are 3rd baseman potentially ( depending on how this year goes ). Bogaerts is considered right behin Middlebrooks on the prospect list already, and he is only 19 or so. And performing consistently well at every level.

    I really doubt they trade Middlebrooks and neither would I probably but if the deal is right in baseball, I'd trade my mother! For the right deal, I'd trade Middlebrooks. I doubt if that right deal comes up though. Lots of talent evaluators are starting to look at Middlebrooks as an elite guy though now. He has always been a solid fielding guy with a great arm. If he starts putting up 30 HR type numbers and a high average, he's worth a small fortune at the hot corner. Maybe we could pick up the best power hitting RF prospect in baseball, for example, or a stud pitching prospect. Middlebrooks is worth a lot right now especially for some team which loses it's 3rd baseman to injury for the year, or a team looking to build around such a prospect.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    For example, is Middlebrooks potentially the centerpiece in a deal for a #3 starter even, especially if the guy costs some team $10 mil or so and they want to dump some salary at mid year? Absolutely. Middlebrooks alone would potentially get that sort of deal done. A Garza or similar level guy. In the right situation, maybe we would do such a deal.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Youk has been the best example for a player who hustles, works hard,  and plays with/through pain.  He wears the Sox uniform with honor and respect.

    Unfortunately, he can't stop the clock.  Youk, sadly, is starting to break down.  His mobility is obviously limited and I think he has peaked.

    I want to first say that I loved the AGon trade and think it was a better choice than signing Beltre long-term at his age, but I did say that the worst part about the AGon deal was that Youk was going to have to play 3B just as he was at the age where he should be playing 1B or DH, especially with his increasing injury history. The games missed by Youk don't accurately reflect how many games injuries have influenced his performance. 

    A big decision will have to be made this winter (or sooner). Maybe Papi will walk this winter and Youk will be the primary DH, but there's also a chance they both walk.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    ...I have never been a big Middlebrooks fan but we all should just admit it when we are wrong and revise our assessments given new information when it is available. The guy can field and it now appears the guy has turned into a real solid hitter. He still doesn't have a lot of plate discipline but neither did Mike Lowell and that type of hitter sometimes slots real well at # 6 or 7 in the lineup, behind lots of .400 OBP guys. Lowell had 120 RBI one year for us as a similar profile guy.

    So why trade him for god's sake?  Well, what do we do with him if he's stuck behind Youk? If Youk puts up 20 HR and an OBP close to .380 again at 3rd that is tough to replace.  Again, Middlebrooks is a real solid fielder making him a very valuable prospect if his bat continues to produce. He's a solid all around prospect, almost a prototypical 3rd base guy. But we also have 2 more tremendous 3rd base prospects behind him. Possibly our top 3 prospects are 3rd baseman potentially ( depending on how this year goes ). Bogaerts is considered right behin Middlebrooks on the prospect list already, and he is only 19 or so. And performing consistently well at every level.

    I really doubt they trade Middlebrooks and neither would I probably but if the deal is right in baseball, I'd trade my mother! For the right deal, I'd trade Middlebrooks. I doubt if that right deal comes up though. Lots of talent evaluators are starting to look at Middlebrooks as an elite guy though now. He has always been a solid fielding guy with a great arm. If he starts putting up 30 HR type numbers and a high average, he's worth a small fortune at the hot corner. Maybe we could pick up the best power hitting RF prospect in baseball, for example, or a stud pitching prospect. Middlebrooks is worth a lot right now especially for some team which loses it's 3rd baseman to injury for the year, or a team looking to build around such a prospect....

    For example, is Middlebrooks potentially the centerpiece in a deal for a #3 starter even, especially if the guy costs some team $10 mil or so and they want to dump some salary at mid year? Absolutely. Middlebrooks alone would potentially get that sort of deal done. A Garza or similar level guy. In the right situation, maybe we would do such a deal.

    I couldn't agree more, boom.

    How about MIddlebrooks, Bowden, Anderson, and Salty for Floyd and Thorton.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II


    All the posts for trading Middlebrooks make sense except for benefit to the organization to save money.  This fact alone gave the team benefit with home-grown talent such as Ellsbury, Youkilis and Pedroia.

    I think they'll keep him, get a better look at his potential, then make a decision.

    Now, Lars Anderson is another story.  I say showcase the best we can and see what we can get.

    Crit, like me and millions of others, are card carrying members of the silent Republican majority....LOL

    I'm worried about Harness.  At one time we were supposed to meet up in Seattle.  It just didn't happen.  During that time, we exchanged some off BDC e-mails discussing a few things.  At that time, he gave me his real name.  I wish I still had the info to try and find what happened...or what is going on.

    There were a few health issues which he preferred to be kept confidential.    These, if stretched somewhat, could potentially have been
    the onset of more serious medical issues.  This, of course, is all conjecture.

    I sincerely hope all is well with him and he's just enjoying his winnings somewhere sunny and warm.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The upside on Youk is the Sox have a whole season to make up their minds.  I think he's gone at the end of the year, if not sooner, not only because of his performance and Middlebrooks potential, but also because he shoots his mouth off too much.  For several years he was Charley Hustle on this team, but he also used to blow his stack.  Then in 2010 he firmly denounced a teammate, Ellsbury, not once but several times, and he did it while both were out because of injuries.  Last year Ellsbury came in 2d in the MVP voting, and Youk was OK but once again missed a lot of games from injuries.  

    I agree with moonslav that the trade for AGon probably affected Youk most of all and in a negative way. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It's very rare that a player drops in performance so steeply. I'm still holding out hope that Youk can get healthy and return to 90% of his peak self.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    IMHO with the RS absolutely committed to be under the luxury tax threshold in the year 2014 I don't think they are going to be in a hurry to trade any of their top prospects.

    In fact if the year goes wrong over the next 30 plus games the RS may well find themselves starting to play some of the top prospects at the MLB level with the hope that excitement of watching the home grown kids will mitigate the attendance and viewership losses that a non-contender would create.

    Right now IMHO the C position and 3B because of Youk's start and contract having a team option at the end of this year are the most likely to get regular time on the 25 man roster if that happens.

    Probably two of the hardest things to find in MLB aside from good pitching are offensively gifted catchers and power hitting 3B.  Trading that for 30 - 32 year old pitching is at best a crapshoot (as Lackey, Burnett and a whole host of guys over the years have shown).


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I suspect this is last Youk's last year with the Sox.  I don't say this because of his slow start (he may never again match his 2008-10 peak but he isn't a .200 hitter either).  Nor do I think Middlebrooks is a lock because of his hot start.  We have multiple 3B or SS/3B candidates coming up through the minors plus Aviles who can cover both spots and Youk's option is $13m.  That's a lot for any DH who isn't named David Ortiz.  I'd love the flexibility of having a DH who can cover 1B & 3B especially if he's splitting time with Lavarnway but at the end of the day, I don't think the team is going to spend $13m for Youk to primarily be a DH.  And if you think they'd keep him at 3B, I'd say the risk of another Lowell situation makes that unlikely too.  If Papi keeps tearing it up, odds seem good for him to finish his career in Boston and there is only room for one of these two next year, IMO.  Now maybe Youk will kick into high gear at the plate (not unlikely) and maybe he will look a lot better in the field (not so likely) ... but it would take both things to happen for the RS to pick up that $13m option ... and even then, it might also require Ortiz to tank or have a major injury, all IMHO of course.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    IMHO with the RS absolutely committed to be under the luxury tax threshold in the year 2014 I don't think they are going to be in a hurry to trade any of their top prospects. 

    In fact if the year goes wrong over the next 30 plus games the RS may well find themselves starting to play some of the top prospects at the MLB level with the hope that excitement of watching the home grown kids will mitigate the attendance and viewership losses that a non-contender would create. 

    Right now IMHO the C position and 3B because of Youk's start and contract having a team option at the end of this year are the most likely to get regular time on the 25 man roster if that happens....

    We're pretty close to being under the luxury cap this year too, so we may see a salary dump if we look like we are not going anywhere this year. We could trade Youk before losing him this winter.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I suspect this is last Youk's last year with the Sox.  I don't say this because of his slow start (he may never again match his 2008-10 peak but he isn't a .200 hitter either).  Nor do I think Middlebrooks is a lock because of his hot start.  We have multiple 3B or SS/3B candidates coming up through the minors plus Aviles who can cover both spots and Youk's option is $13m.  That's a lot for any DH who isn't named David Ortiz.  I'd love the flexibility of having a DH who can cover 1B & 3B especially if he's splitting time with Lavarnway but at the end of the day, I don't think the team is going to spend $13m for Youk to primarily be a DH.  And if you think they'd keep him at 3B, I'd say the risk of another Lowell situation makes that unlikely too.  If Papi keeps tearing it up, odds seem good for him to finish his career in Boston and there is only room for one of these two next year, IMO.  Now maybe Youk will kick into high gear at the plate (not unlikely) and maybe he will look a lot better in the field (not so likely) ... but it would take both things to happen for the RS to pick up that $13m option ... and even then, it might also require Ortiz to tank or have a major injury, all IMHO of course.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    It's not much, but with the $1M buyout, Youk's cost is really $12M to keep him. Papi's getting about $15M. The fact that Youk can play 3B and 1B when not Dh'ing or if Middlebrooks bombs makes the choice not as clear cut as some think. We could also see both Papi and Youk gone.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : It's not much, but with the $1M buyout, Youk's cost is really $12M to keep him. Papi's getting about $15M . The fact that Youk can play 3B and 1B when not Dh'ing or if Middlebrooks bombs makes the choice not as clear cut as some think. We could also see both Papi and Youk gone.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Unless Youk gets back to his 2010 pre-injury form or Ortiz falls off the table in last 5 months of the season I think it would not be much of a decision to offer Ortiz another trip to arbitration and pass on Youk's option. Personally I'd sacrafice the bench flexibility all day long for David's OPS advantages.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I agree, katz. Even if Youk gets healthy and has a very good year, I don't see him back. Papi is a tough call. I still think Sox management wanted Papi to walk this past winter. I'm not sure they offer the arb again. $15M is a lot, even for the bEST DH ever and a local hero and icon. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Boom, good news!  I'm a Dem. too!  I assumed you were a Rep. because I thought you were a businessman.  Amp, bad news.  I'm not a Rep. but I'm not one to huff and puff about politics.  I am pretty close to what used to be called "Rockefeller Republican" or fiscally conservative but socially liberal.

    On baseball, Ex, you're right, it's pretty hard to believe in today's world and wiz kids always came up earlier.  But if you go look at some of the average pitchers in the Bigs in the 50's and 60's, they even looked older when they came up and spent a lot more time in the minors. 

    As to possible future trades, once again the Giants might be a possibility.  I don't know what they've got for upcoming third basemen, but there is intermittent frustration with Cabrera "The Panda."  Two years ago he was benched at the end of the year, went on a big diet over the summer and had a good year, this year came in overweight again and is off to a slow start so there is some rumbling about him.  Doesn't field well when he gets too fat.  Giants have lots of pitching in their system...
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I agree, katz. Even if Youk gets healthy and has a very good year, I don't see him back. Papi is a tough call. I still think Sox management wanted Papi to walk this past winter. I'm not sure they offer the arb again. $15M is a lot, even for the bEST DH ever and a local hero and icon. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I don't agree they wanted him to walk, they made a a market value, two year offer and were well aware that it would take about $15M to avoid an arbitration hearing.

    Ortiz and his agent were well aware that Papi could make about 2/3rds of his two year value if he accepted the arb offer. It would have been a pretty big long shot hunch and wrong as it turned out to assume that Ortiz was going to turn down arbitration.

    Now the tough call becomes how serious the RS are about 2013 and/or whatelse they could do with $15M for one season.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I do think the Sox were "aware" Papi might take the arb, but that doesn't mean they wanted him to. I think the Sox offered the arb, so the if Papi walked, they could say it was Papi's choice. I'm just guessing, but I think the Sox management would have rather had the draft choice and $15M than Papi. 

    Now, they might be happy to have him as he is hitting over .400 early. 
     

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