A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Baseball Brothers, Giants third baseman Pablo "The Panda" Sandoval has broken the hamate bone in his hand (broke the opposite hand last year) and is out for six weeks.  They have no established 3rd baseman and no 1st baseman among those playing there has "grabbed the job."  Huff has mental problems and is out and not playing.  Belt, 2nd year guy, has been playing first but not biting in and they talk of moving him to outfield.  Sandoval is overweight and suffering "pulls," etc. and has not been playing strong defense though his hitting has been superb.  Two years ago he was benched because of his weight and went on a big diet last year.  Presently he looks terrible.  The Giants have no hitting and NO timely hitting and are losing well pitched games because of lack of runs. 

    You guys know where I'm going with this.  There are now two Bay Area teams that need 3rd/1st basemen and hitting.  I think we need to identify our 3rd baseman of the future.  I would always vote for the guy who can prove himself at the major league level but...they are talking openly here about trading for some help.  I'm starting to think that Youk will never be the same...Giants have lots of pitching at the major league level and lots coming...
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm just not sure either of these teams would want to take on Youk's salary and injury issues. SF has a shot at the playoffs, so they might want to take on the risk, if we took back some salary one way or another, but they would not likely give up a quality ML player, but rather might give prospects. Oakland is going nowhere, so I can't see them taking on an aging player unless we paid nearly all of his salary.

    Here's a possible starting point:
    Trade:
    Youkilis: 12:$12M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
    Lackey: 12:$15.25M, 13:$15.25M, 14:$15.25M
    Punto: 12:$1.5M, 13:$1.5M
    Lars Anderson
    Alex Hassan

    For:

    Sergio Romo: 12: $1.575M
    Melkey Cabrera: 12: $6M 
    Barry Zito: 12:$19M, 13:$20M,14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]It amazes me that there have been no comments about Oil Can Boyd's interview. He may be a hero to some people, but to me he's nothing short of repugnant.
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]
    He said something like he was on crack all year or something like that right. I didn't even read one word of the interview. Why bother?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Call me crazy but Middlebrooks is so hot right now and looking so good.................he would be one heck of a trade bait option!

    Yeah, in the right deal, I'd trade him still. He's looking great but what are we going to do with Youk then? Bench him? Try to trade him and get nothing back? 

    Let's say we could get back a top SS prospect or a excellent pitching prospect. I'd trade him. If we could keep Youk for 2 years a Cecchinni or a Bogaerts is potentially ready to replace Youk. Admittedly though, Youk's defense is not there any more. I have no problem keeping Middlebrooks but I would keep my ears open also. I don't think Youk is through. Why should we think Youk is through?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Bradley had 2 more hits tonight and a sacrifice. The guy is up to .374 last I looked with about a .485 OBP. In about 90 AB now. This kid looks like he is for real.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm sure by next year, we will have a few more prospects in the top 100. We had a nice deep draft last year and have a couple extra picks this year as well.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    What percentage of games should a team win when scoring...
    Red= Better than league average / Blue + worse than league average
                       AL         Sox
         total '12  '11    '12  '11
    0 runs?     0    0       0      0
    1 run?      14  10    33   17
    2 runs?    12  24     0    13
    3 runs?    35  39     0    41
    4 runs?    61  52    50   57
    5 runs?    71  64    - -   47
    6 runs?    72  73    100 69
    7 runs?    91  78    100 78
    8 runs?    90  89     --  100
    9 runs?    73  93      0  100
    10+?        94  94     84   96

    2012:
    The Sox are 1-9 in games where we scored 1-3 runs. Scoring 1-3 runs is bad, no doubt, but a 10% winning percentage is worse than league average for low scoring games (22%). That would suggest that our staff has not helped out when the offense is struggling like other teams do. 

    We are 2-10 in games where we scored 1-4 runs: a 17% win %.
    The league winning % is 33. Again, these numbers suggest that we should be winning more of our low scoring games than we have been thus far this year.

    We're losing 12% more games than the avg AL team in 1-3 run games.
    We're losing 16% more games than the avg AL team in 1-4 run games.

    We did much better in low scoring games in 2011.
                     League  Sox
    1-3 runs   25%     25%
    1-4 runs   33%     38%

    We are 9-2 in games with 6 or more runs scored in 2012 (82%).
    The AL is  89-14 (85%).

    This suggests that we should be winning more than we have been in high scoring games.

    In low scoring and high scoring games, our staff seems to be not pulling their share in terms of league averages.

    We did better in 2011 when scoring 6+ runs:
    League: 596-114 (85% winning)
    Sox:           55-7    (89% winning)

    It is clear that the shift in wins has come from lower than league winning average percentages in low and high scoring games.

    A Look at runs allowed:
    We are 5-3 in games with 1-3 runs allowed. (63%) AL: 106-30 (78%)
    We are 6-5 in games with 1-4 runs allowed. (55%) AL: 127-63 (67%)
    We are 8-6 in games with 1-5 runs allowed. (57%) AL: 139-93 (60%)
    We are 2-8 in games with 6+ runs allowed.  (20%)  AL:  16-89  (15%)

    These 2012 numbers suggest that our offense has let down our staff by winning less games than the norm when our staff has pitched well, but has won more games than the norm when our staff has pitched poorly.

    It appears that both the bats and the arms are too blame for the poor start, but the pitching by a larger percentage.

    Want to play the "blame game" game by game?

    If you combine 2011 and 2012, the winning percent for games with these amount of runs scored should be and compare to (Sox 2012 results)...

    1  11%  (1-2) should be 0-3 (+1 for pitching)
    2  22%  (0-3) should be 0-3
    3  38%  (0-4) should be 2-2 (-2 for the pitching)
    4  53%  (1-1) should be 1-1
    5  65%  (0-0)
    6  73%  (2-0) should be 1-1 (+1 for the pitching)
    7  80%  (1-0) should be 1-0
    8  89%  (0-0)
    9  91%  (0-1) should be 1-0 (-1 for the pitching)
    10+ 94% (6-1) should be 7-0 (-1 for the pitching)
    Total: -2 wins by pitching staff.

    league Win% 2011-2012 with Runs allowed 2011-2012 avg with 
    (Sox 2012 results):
    1  89%  0-1  should be 1-0 (-1 offense)
    2  79%  3-0  should be 2-1 (+1 offense)
    3  62%  2-2  should be 2-2
    4  47%  1-2  should be 1-2
    5  35%  2-1  should be 1-2 (+1 offense)
    6  27%  2-3  should be 1-4 (+1 offense)
    7  20%  0-1  should be 0-1
    8  11%  0-0
    9    9%  0-0
    10+ 3% 0-4 should be 0-4
    Total: +2 wins for the offense

    It looks like the pitching staff is more to blame if we go game by game as well (minus 2 to plus 2) 



     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Barnes gets called up to Salem and pitches 6 more innings of 1 run ball with 12 strikeouts. Bradley draws 3 more walks and a hbp. His OBP is .488 now. We have 2 guys in Salem now absolutely tearing up the league. 2 blue chip prospects.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I agree boom. I think we have a ton of low-level prospects that will be breaking into the top 100 lists very soon.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Should Cook be given another chance? It would seem to me that the injury did affect him. Maybe a short DL run witha couple more rehab starts and then bring him up again? We should at least try to get some value from him IMO.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Iggy has 5 straight two hit games after a big slump.   Is he just young and adjusting?  Is he a Reddick type (streaky)?  Great sign either way!

    I am glad he is learning to handle slumps outside the glare of Boston.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Should Cook be given another chance? It would seem to me that the injury did affect him. Maybe a short DL run witha couple more rehab starts and then bring him up again? We should at least try to get some value from him IMO.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    It appears they rushed him, but considering the circumstances, there wasn't many other choices.

    How many years do we have to go like this before some of us realize that we need pitching depth, but not in terms of stock-piling 10 #7 starter types, but more like getting one solid and reliable #3 slot type.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Barnes gets called up to Salem and pitches 6 more innings of 1 run ball with 12 strikeouts. Bradley draws 3 more walks and a hbp. His OBP is .488 now. We have 2 guys in Salem now absolutely tearing up the league. 2 blue chip prospects.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]I think Barnes will see Portland before the year's out. Jackie Bradley Jr. could be called up to Portland any time too I reckon. If they were to move Linares over to right that would give Portland a formidable outfield and a guy that's looking more and more like a top of the rotation starter. It could make the Eastern League interesting. Here's a question for you boomer, and you too moon. And anyone else too I guess. Should the Red Sox start into selling mode? I mean whenever one of our high priced guys, except maybe Gonzo and Papi have anything closely resembling a good year we sell them to the highest bidder. If it were me as GM I'd try to find as much high A talent as I could for any of those guys. Maybe it's just me but when I think about the players I really like on the Red Sox it's the guys that have come up throuhg the farm system. Not just Middlebrooks but Pedey, Ells, Lester, Doubront, Bard and even Buch. Even way back when the guys I really liked on the Sox were Rice, Evans, Fisk, Hoffman, Yaz, Sonny Siebert, Lonborg you get the idea. Anyway to attempt to round up a wandering thought I think a homegrown baseball team has at least 2 advantages, it's cheaper and it's more likeable. It might even be a better baseball team, but that point is more debatable I think.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    As much as I like the farm we can't break this team up already. We still have plenty of talent to make the playoffs. I think Buchholz turns it around soon and we should be able to see a decent run of quality starts at some point soon. I'm discouraged also but we should be able to make this interesting this year. If we are 15 games out by the all star break sure but we are a long way from that.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    As much as I like the farm we can't break this team up already. We still have plenty of talent to make the playoffs. I think Buchholz turns it around soon and we should be able to see a decent run of quality starts at some point soon. I'm discouraged also but we should be able to make this interesting this year. If we are 15 games out by the all star break sure but we are a long way from that.

    I agree, but maybe 12 games not 15. Maybe even 10, if we still have injuries that look to continue after the deadline.

    I'm not giving up hope, but with 3 offensive guys out and no Papelbon or Bard in the pen, and Bailey out, the odds are slipping away quickly. I'm usually one of the last posters on this site to give up hope during any given season, but this is looking awful.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Did anyone notice 90% of the games started at 1PM today? Next Sunday they nearly all start at 7PM, and then the following Sunday it is back to 1PM. Strange they would do it that way.... all Sundays should be like today. It is great.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Did anyone notice 90% of the games started at 1PM today? Next Sunday they nearly all start at 7PM, and then the following Sunday it is back to 1PM. Strange they would do it that way.... all Sundays should be like today. It is great.

    The only time I like our Sunday games at 7pm is when the Sox are on ESPN.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Iggy has 5 straight two hit games after a big slump.   Is he just young and adjusting?  Is he a Reddick type (streaky)?  Great sign either way!

    It's a small sample size, but very encouraging.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, I found your stats on pitching support above very interesting.  That was a very telling set of stats. 

    The Giants are desperate for hitting so I don't think they would give up Melky.  But I'm with Boom.  If we can get some great pieces for Middlebrooks, I'd do it if we think the guys below are going to be just as good.  Minor league top end talent would be ok with me too--pitching, right handed power hitters, SS--whatever we think we need.

    If we're ten out at the All Star break, I say go for it and let's go with the young kids in the next couple of years.  Trade who we can for quality.

    Please don't think I'm using the present state of the team to dump on BV because I'm not.  I was his biggest supporter before he was even in the picture.  But so far I'm a little disappointed.  He seems like a deer in the headlights.  Some decisions a little puzzling--not that sharp at times and definitely not the know it all that I used to watch on tv.  I'm not sure any manager could have made a difference so far, and he may be "finding his rhythm" after being away from the field, but I don't see where he's helped much.  I do think he's playing it about right right now, saying the players are "playing hard, breaks just aren't coming, etc. etc. blah, blah."  Anyone have thoughts on this?  Also, I'm starting to think the chemistry isn't right with this team for whatever reason.  I know there are different styles, but I like a fireball who can get pissed off and get tired of losing and swashbuckle his way through the flak--and get others to follow.  I used to think Youk was that guy, but his injuries sort of leave him out.  Pedey?  At least on the surface you don't hear much about him.  Seems like someone on the pitching staff should get a little upset too...  
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, you're so right about the pitching.  That has got to be priority #1 in the future.  Several years ago I thought we were building a staff like the Atlanta staff that went to the playoffs through the 90's, the Orioles of the 70's, but it just hasn't come together yet.  I think there have to be some leaders on that staff...that's why I hoped Bud Black or last year's pitching coach at Texas could have been in the run for manager.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : It appears they rushed him, but considering the circumstances, there wasn't many other choices. How many years do we have to go like this before some of us realize that we need pitching depth, but not in terms of stock-piling 10 #7 starter types, but more like getting one solid and reliable #3 slot type.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Moon - I don't know how you think they rushed Cook based on that one start.  Did you see that gash in his leg?  I simply can't believe they sent him back out there.  And his time in AAA proved he was ready ... not necessary great, but definitely as ready as he was going to get.

    I get where you are going on the solid #3 type starter but that is how we got Lackey.  Remember our starting rotation last year?  That's not the rotation of a team that is skimping.  I don't mean to pick on poor Lackey, but my point is that chasing those guys as FA's is often a bad deal.  I'm fine trading prospects for good pitching, preferably young pitchers, but overall I'd much rather see more tinkering on the fringes of our BP and rotation to find the keepers and keep the kids moving along.  I'll take a BP full of Aceves, Tazawa's & Mortenson's even if it means we need to suffer some Andrew Miller's.  A combination of younger projects and our own prospects is a nice way to staff the back of the rotation and build a more flexible pen, IMHO.

    If we need to sign FA's to fill the gaps, that's fine too but I really hate giving 4-5 year contracts to pitchers in their 30's.  Maybe I am wearing blinders but there seem to be so few pitchers who aren't an enormous risk for that kind of contract.  And when we have to go to FAs to fill the gaps between our prospects and projects, I'd rather go for 1-2 year contracts.  It's never that bad to eat half-to-one year of a contract.  For all the complaining about Jenks, how much of a problem is his 2x6 when compared to the full payroll?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Moon, I found your stats on pitching support above very interesting.  That was a very telling set of stats.  The Giants are desperate for hitting so I don't think they would give up Melky.  But I'm with Boom.  If we can get some great pieces for Middlebrooks, I'd do it if we think the guys below are going to be just as good.  Minor league top end talent would be ok with me too--pitching, right handed power hitters, SS--whatever we think we need. If we're ten out at the All Star break, I say go for it and let's go with the young kids in the next couple of years.  Trade who we can for quality. Please don't think I'm using the present state of the team to dump on BV because I'm not.  I was his biggest supporter before he was even in the picture.  But so far I'm a little disappointed.  He seems like a deer in the headlights.  Some decisions a little puzzling--not that sharp at times and definitely not the know it all that I used to watch on tv.  I'm not sure any manager could have made a difference so far, and he may be "finding his rhythm" after being away from the field, but I don't see where he's helped much.  I do think he's playing it about right right now, saying the players are "playing hard, breaks just aren't coming, etc. etc. blah, blah."  Anyone have thoughts on this?  Also, I'm starting to think the chemistry isn't right with this team for whatever reason.  I know there are different styles, but I like a fireball who can get pissed off and get tired of losing and swashbuckle his way through the flak--and get others to follow.  I used to think Youk was that guy, but his injuries sort of leave him out.  Pedey?  At least on the surface you don't hear much about him.  Seems like someone on the pitching staff should get a little upset too...  
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]
    I doubt that any manager helps or hurts this team as it's constituted. It has a makeshift lineup and hardly any critical production from Gonzalez. A few timely hits from him and the Sox win two or three of the games they lost.
    Swashbucklers in baseball are valuable only as far as their talent goes. Being ticked off in this sport is almost a surefire way to misfire. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : I doubt that any manager helps or hurts this team as it's constituted. It has a makeshift lineup and hardly any critical production from Gonzalez. A few timely hits from him and the Sox win two or three of the games they lost. Swashbucklers in baseball are valuable only as far as their talent goes. Being ticked off in this sport is almost a surefire way to misfire. 
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    I agree expitch, you can't blame Bobby for this team and id Tito were still here or another manager we would still be a mess.  Big changes need to be made, especially in the starting rotation.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, I think you did make a good call on Gavin Floyd being a good target.  But I'm sorta glad right now we didn't trade Middlebrooks. Smile
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Middlebrooks has really shown well so far. Including his time in AAA this year. Maybe he has made the adjustments necessary to position himself as a starter on this team going forward. He sure looks for real. I bet a ton of teams would love to have him. If he keeps this up he's a ROY candidate!

    I like that he is a prototypical fielder at 3rd also, and he looks like he is in tremendous shape. Let's hope he's for real. We could use great young talent like that.

    Our BP is coming together plus we have a lot of depth still in the minors. If someone gets hurt in the BP we probably have 2-3 guys available to back them up.

    If we get some production from the starters this team could really make a run. It could still happen.
     

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