A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Carnie, you devil. Being an English teacher I noticed you said "or" so that means one or the other, not both.  I think I'd do it for Ells IF they send back a real strong AAA/AA pitcher, right handed hitting outfielder, SS--as well as King Felix.  Now let's see what Moon thinks.  I do think Ells is worth a lot to a National league team... 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    Carnie, you devil. Being an English teacher I noticed you said "or" so that means one or the other, not both.  I think I'd do it for Ells IF they send back a real strong AAA/AA pitcher, right handed hitting outfielder, SS--as well as King Felix.  Now let's see what Moon thinks.  I do think Ells is worth a lot to a National league team... 
    Posted by Critter23
    I think Pedroia would be the more likely to go in a deal with Seattle, just because the M's have Gutierrez and he's a pretty good center fielder. You'd have to bring up Ciriaco and hopes that Bogaerts develops fast.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Ex, 99% of pitchers say they're "fine" at the end of the game.  This guy has only started about six times so he'd be the last one I'd believe, so if that's what BV did, then that's another reason I don't think he's on his "A" game yet.  I have a question for you since I assume you're a former pitcher: what do you think of the pitching coach so far?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    Ex, 99% of pitchers say they're "fine" at the end of the game.  This guy has only started about six times so he'd be the last one I'd believe, so if that's what BV did, then that's another reason I don't think he's on his "A" game yet.  I have a question for you since I assume you're a former pitcher: what do you think of the pitching coach so far?
    Posted by Critter23
    Oh, foo. Valentine and McClure could SEE that Bard still had great stuff. Are you setting your judgment, far from the scene, against theirs? 
    It doesn't matter how many times a pitcher has started. What matters is the circumstances of the game he's in and how he's doing. There are times when "stat history" should give way to immediate judgment. 
    If a pitcher is the last one you'd believe, you'd not be a good pitching coach. Pitchers don't always say they are "fine" -- certainly not 99% of the time -- and their input is taken along with what managers and coaches are observing. What experience permits you to claim that 99% figure.
    The bench made what it considered the best judgment based on what was happening. Bard screwed it up. 
    And you think that this showed that Valentine is not yet on his A game?
    McClure is working with what he has. Too early to say.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Mr. moon and mr. critter, a question for ya. Would you trade Dustin Pedroia or Ells? I think I would if the trade were with Seattle and they would take Youk and Beckett too and send back King Felix. Idle minds tend to wander I guess.

    I would not look to trade Pedey, but if someone offered more than he is worth I'd trade him (or anybody).

    I would seriously klook to trade Ellsbury. He's nopt coming back here even if we offer a little more than anyone else. I am 99.9% sure of that. I think if we wait until mid season next year, the team who gets him will not get comp picks if he walks, so it is worth more for a team to get him now of this winter.

    I doubt he'd be willing to be part of a trade and sign type deal, but I guess if the price is right...

    I'm getting close to being an advocate of selling off a few parts:
    1) I think Middlebrooks, Lava, and Iggy are not steps down anyway.
    2) We can win next year, if we spend right and make key deal this summer and this winter.
    3) Stocking up on prospects will put us in a better position this winter to make some blockbusters. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    So who do you think is off limits moon? I say Papi, Middlebrooks and Gonzo because that's the heart of your order. Maybe Aceves. I'd listen on anyone else though.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    So who do you think is off limits moon? I say Papi, Middlebrooks and Gonzo because that's the heart of your order. Maybe Aceves. I'd listen on anyone else though.

    Nobody is "off limits" for the right package, but the players I want to keep most are:

    Pedey, Aceves, Lester, Bard (in relief), Morales.

    I also like Sweeney, Bailey (once healthy), Buch and Doubront.

    I don't think we can get equal return for Beckett, and he still has more value .

    For prospects, I like Bogaerts, Lava, Cecchini, Swihart and Middlebrooks most.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Pedroia is off limits, I disagree that he is not. I start my team with Pedroia.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    If we do become sellers, I think something like this makes sense:

    July deadline:

    Trade:
    Crawford: 12:$19.5M, 13:$20M, 14:$20.25M, 15:$20.5M, 16:$20.75M,17:$21M
    Youkilis: 12:$12M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)

    For:
    Barry Zito: 12:$19M, 13:$20M,14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)
    Aubrey Huff: 12:$10M, 13:$10M club option ($2M buyout)
    Sergio Romo: 12: $1.575M (+ 2 arb years)

    Total Cost: 
    12 (~1/3rd of this): 
    Bos: $30.575M
    SFG: $31.5M
    13: 
    Bos: ~$24.5M (No Huff + Romo arb of $2.5M)
    SFG: $21.5M (No Youk)
    14:
    Bos: ~$12 (No Zito + Romo arb of $4M)
    SFG: $20.25M
    15-16-17:
    Bos: $0K-$0K-0K
    SFG: $20.5M-$20.75M-$21M

    Overall: The Sox save about $68M (mostly from '15-'17)


    Trade: 
    David Ortiz: 12: $14.575M (Then arb or FA)
    Cody Ross: 12: $$3M
    Saltalamacchia: 12: $2.5M

    For:
    Wade Davis: 12:$1.5M, 13:$2.8M, 14:$4.8M, 15:$7M club option, 16:$8M club option, 17:$10M club option ($2.5M buyout)

    Cost:
    12:
    Bos: $1.5M
    TBR: $6.7M
    13-17:
    Bos: $2.8M, $4.8M, $7M option, $8M option, $10M option ($2M buyout)
    TBR: $0-$0-$0-$0-$0

    Overall Sox cost: ~$27M

    Winter 2012-2013:

    Trade:
    Ellsbury: 13: arb then FA in 2014.
    Buchholtz: 13:$5.5M, 14:$7.7M, 15:$12M, 16:$13M club option ($0.245M buyout), 17:$13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)
    Nick Punto: 13: $1.5M
    Anthony Ranaudo
    Lars Anderson
    Brandon Jacobs
    William Jerez

    For:
    Felix Fernandez: 13:$19.5M, 14:$20M

    Cost:
    13: 
    about even (Ell's arb+ Buck, Punto and others=Felix)
    14:
    Sox cost $20M more. 
    Sea cost: ~$10M
    15:
    Sox: $0
    Sea: $12M for Buch + others...

    Total cost:
    Sox: $39.5M
    Sea: $42.5M (assuming they decline to take Buch's $13M)

    Sox save $3M 

    Total savings of about $45M up to 2017. 

    The 2013 Red Sox Foundation (before FA signings):

    C: Lavarnway, __FA__,  (Swihart)
    1B: AGon,     (Anderson)
    2B: Pedroia  (Coyle)
    3B: Middlebrooks,    (Cecchini/Vitek)
    SS: Iglesias,    (Bogaerts)
    Utility IF: Aviles
    LF: __ FA__,   (Linares/Nava/Hassan)
    CF: Ryan Kalish,   (Lin/Hazelbaker/Ramos)
    RF: Ryan Sweeney, (Brentz/Bradley)
    OF: D. McDonald
    DH: A. Huff (cut?) __FA__

    S1: Beckett
    S2: Lester
    S3: __FA__
    S4: Zito
    S5: Lackey
    S6: Doubront/Mortensen/Miller (Barnes/Wilson)

    R1: Bailey
    R2: Bard
    R3: Aceves
    R4: Romo
    R5: Morales
    R6: R Hill
    R7: Melancon/Tazawa/Atchison/Albers/Thomas

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'd take Zito, what the heck.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    I wanted BV and I still do.  You're right about who sets the roster, but if he doesn't have any influence right now, he never will.  If Lava, for example, isn't an obvious improvement right now, then yes I have a problem with both.  As to leaving Bard in last night, what do you see that makes that a good decision in the light of who he's pitched against and how he's done in the latter innings and the walks he gives up in those innings?  I don't have a big problem with sending him out in the 8th, but as soon as he gave up a walk--boom, out of there.  I'm sure BV does what he thinks is right each time, but as fans we can second guess too.  I'm not a manager, just an observer.  So far he seems to be "managing" but not "leading."  Some managers just have the aura of "being in charge." Dick Williams, Whitey Herzog to date myself.  I thought he had that, and I hope he does or will show it in the future.  So far, I don't see that, and that disappoints me because that's why I wanted him over others.     
    Posted by Critter23
    I will leave the divining of "aura" and "leadership" to you. But I do have a couple of questions. How do you know how Valentine deals with his players? Did he look like a deer in the headlights when he visited Doubront on the mound?
    Where do you get your knowledge of "influence" between a GM and a manager? 
    Again, history is not invariably the best guide to judgments and decisions in the present. It is a variable but far from the only one, depending upon circumstances. You're an English teacher. Have you read a book about "the black swan"?  The cruelly unpredictable in history. Great anecdotes to relieve your students from stress about comma faults and the like.
    You would have pulled Bard after the first walk. I would have stuck with him because of how he was rolling 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    that night. But I admit that I might have gone to the mound and chewed him out to snap his head back into the game. I wish Shoppach had done that. Forget the huge fragile chicken egg egos. No way he walks Dyson with a one-run lead in the 8th inning on the road. Couldn't have hurt to tell him that on the spot.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    I'd take Zito, what the heck.
    Posted by dannycater

    First, I'd try to get SF to do the deal without Huff.

    Second, it's not that I want Zito; it's more that I want to save the money to spend elsewhere and get rid of CC's deal and make room for Middlebrooks and Iggy.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Well Ex, you are confusing me a bit.  No I have no knowledge of what goes on in RS management.  I thought this site was a place where people could come and express their opinions.  Actually, quite unusual for me, I'm basing my opinion on facts like these:  Bard is averaging 5.1 innings per appearance.  After 75 pitches, opponents are hitting .375 against him.  So the facts are that once he got to the 8th, he was three innings over his average.  He gets tired at the end of his appearances and gives up a lot of walks. Whatever they saw, it obviously wasn't supported by previous performance or what happened next.  And it seems like you wanted the manager to go out and talk to him after that first walk.  This situation is only a microcosm but I see situations like this quite often that make me think he's still sharpening his pencil.  I'll let you have the last word.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In response to "Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II":
    Well Ex, you are confusing me a bit.  No I have no knowledge of what goes on in RS management.  I thought this site was a place where people could come and express their opinions.  Actually, quite unusual for me, I'm basing my opinion on facts like these:  Bard is averaging 5.1 innings per appearance.  After 75 pitches, opponents are hitting .375 against him.  So the facts are that once he got to the 8th, he was three innings over his average.  He gets tired at the end of his appearances and gives up a lot of walks. Whatever they saw, it obviously wasn't supported by previous performance or what happened next.  And it seems like you wanted the manager to go out and talk to him after that first walk.  This situation is only a microcosm but I see situations like this quite often that make me think he's still sharpening his pencil.  I'll let you have the last word. Posted by Critter23
    I see two good posters (and two frustrated fans like myself) making a good argument here...I was in NY and didn't see game...after 1st walk, it seems he should have been pulled...maybe Bard needs to tell him he's gassed despite reasonable pitch count, maybe Valentine needs to pull these guys a little earlier than he'd like to give them that "quality start confidence," which Tito excelled at...Either way, nothing works right now and "second guessing" is very easy...
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

         I've said it before and I'll say it again: "This team STINKS!!" Not only that, it's one of the most unlikable Sox teams in a long time. They've become a team of lazy fat cats, who only care about picking up their paychecks.

         The Sox should continue to bring up the kids, like Middlebrooks...and see what they can do.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    Well Ex, you are confusing me a bit.  No I have no knowledge of what goes on in RS management.  I thought this site was a place where people could come and express their opinions.  Actually, quite unusual for me, I'm basing my opinion on facts like these:  Bard is averaging 5.1 innings per appearance.  After 75 pitches, opponents are hitting .375 against him.  So the facts are that once he got to the 8th, he was three innings over his average.  He gets tired at the end of his appearances and gives up a lot of walks. Whatever they saw, it obviously wasn't supported by previous performance or what happened next.  And it seems like you wanted the manager to go out and talk to him after that first walk.  This situation is only a microcosm but I see situations like this quite often that make me think he's still sharpening his pencil.  I'll let you have the last word.
    Posted by Critter23
    I challenged the basis of your opinions, since they implied knowledge of how BV manages but doesn't lead and how he and the GM relate. Those opinions call for knowledge to which none of us has enough access. They are not opinions about strategy.
    Three innings over his average and still pitching well. Still throwing hard and showing no signs of fatigue. He was already contradicting history. Why does one base on balls suddenly change everything? What was so portentous about it? It was a mindless walk, yes; and that has been my point all along.
    The people closest to the situation had all of your information, and more. But they did not SEE or FEEL anything in the moment to make them think that Bard on that night would not straighten up. Valentine has said as much. He and McClure have been around a lot of pitchers in a lot of situations, and probably have a better feel for these matters than people equipped only with print-outs.
    They knew that he was "beating his average history," and cannot be faulted, IMO, for having a reasonable expectation that he could do so for another inning, or a good part of it -- according to their direct experience of the event.
    Otherwise, here's what we have. A person in a windowless room with a teletype and scads of data. No contact with anyone live on the scene. Every time as soon as the teletype spat out the news that a man was just walked, the operator would consult his data, and then send back the direction automatically:
    "Pull that pitcher." Is that how you want baseball managed or led? That is not using history. It's being imprisoned by it. Who says, for example, that if BV pulls Bard after the walk, Albers does not still get shelled.
    Fatigue, not exhaustion, can actually help a pitcher calm down if he knows what to do. If he doesn't overthrow, his ball will sink a little. 
    Pitchers normally will say so if something doesn't feel right -- if there is good communication and trust amongst all parties. And how questions are put to pitchers during games is very important. Not, for instance, "Are you done?" But maybe something like, "The ball is coming up on you. How does the delivery feel? Forced?" And so on.
    Bard butchered the situation. All indications were that his arm was fine. But his head wasn't. Let's hope he learned something. Now, THAT will be useful history.
    You see situations like this microcosm "quite often."  Really. Maybe you're not seeing what you think you're seeing. Or someone else is seeing it differently. Or there are perfectly good reasons for what the manager is doing. 
    Still seeing a "deer in the headlights"? BV doesn't look happy, no doubt about that. Who would be happy with his gig at the moment? He's trying to manage a truncated ballclub with a highly suspect rotation. Until tonight a big guy in the middle of the lineup was flubbing chance after chance to help the team win. And so on.
     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    5.1 innings per appearance is factual in what it states but misleading in what it implies: that he averages only 5.1 innings each time he's on the mound. That figure is calculated to include one brief relief appearance. That, of course, pulls down the average per appearance. He's actually averaging better than 6 innings per start. So, Critter, if you use facts, please account fully for the way they are arrived at and the context. The issue in that game was starts not appearances. Bard was not as out of line with his history as you state. And he was still bringing it. 
    Besides, facts exist, but applications are awaited. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    moon the forum is turning on you..... run !!!
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The Tampa thread seems to have moved out of sight.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    moon the forum is turning on you..... run !!!
    Posted by EnchiladaT

    I'm turning on myself too!

    Surprised

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The Tampa thread seems to have moved out of sight.

    Maybe it's time to start Part VIII.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Can you imagine Zito in Fenway? Wow? Oh well, it couldn't be worst that the over 6 runs a game we have been giving up. I understand why the discussion as it frees up cash faster but I'd still probably bet on Crawford over Zito. I'd have to think more about that deal to make it. Not only is Huff not healthy mentallly right now, he's also superfluous in this lineup. Do we need a DH/1st baseman/aging 3rd baseman?

    Gotta say, I agree with Crit. One walk and he's OUT OF THERE! 

    Do any of you guys think that by now maybe, just maybe, Salty isn't helping the CERA situation?

    BV is going to look pretty bad as long as he keeps sending one of the worst pitching staffs in the league out there every game.

    Is Mortensen the RH Okajima or what? He should be good for at least one time around the league ...and maybe more. The pen is definitely coming around. We still have Tazawa and Melancon in AAA!

    Moon - you are really crunching the numbers. It reminds me of when I had to coach a bad team. That was so much work trying to squeeze a few wins out. It's tough to even discuss this team in a fun way. I fear we all will be on whatever coolaid Softy has been drinking by the end of the year. 

    Narcissist Cola...Refreshing!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Can you imagine Zito in Fenway? Wow? Oh well, it couldn't be worst that the over 6 runs a game we have been giving up. I understand why the discussion as it frees up cash faster but I'd still probably bet on Crawford over Zito. I'd have to think more about that deal to make it. Not only is Huff not healthy mentallly right now, he's also superfluous in this lineup. Do we need a DH/1st baseman/aging 3rd baseman?

    As I said, I'd try to do the deal without Huff, but we'd have to pay some cash instead. I also said we'd probably cut Huff.

    My deal is not about getting Zito, though I think he can rebound and has shown good signs this year, but more to free up salary for the long-term health of this team, and to make room for Middlebrooks.

    Gotta say, I agree with Crit. One walk and he's OUT OF THERE! 

    Do any of you guys think that by now maybe, just maybe, Salty isn't helping the CERA situation?

    He's looked better that last 10 games or so, but he is still light years away from VTek. harness would be screaming "I told you so!" if he were back.

    BV is going to look pretty bad as long as he keeps sending one of the worst pitching staffs in the league out there every game.

    Is Mortensen the RH Okajima or what? He should be good for at least one time around the league ...and maybe more. The pen is definitely coming around. We still have Tazawa and Melancon in AAA!

    Moon - you are really crunching the numbers. It reminds me of when I had to coach a bad team. That was so much work trying to squeeze a few wins out. It's tough to even discuss this team in a fun way. I fear we all will be on whatever coolaid Softy has been drinking by the end of the year. 

    We need Ellsbury back. I am confident that Lester and Beckett will come back. Jon has already pitched much better.

    Our fielding has been about the worst I have ever seen. Ellsbury, Middlebrook, and Iggy would change that radically, and help the team ERA.

    As I said all winter long during my trade Salty rants, Lava can not do much worse in CERA-related areas.

    I also said at the time of the AGon trade, that moving Youk to 3B was not wise. I suggested trading him and was soundly bashed (led by softy). Now, that his trade value is near zero, nearly everyone wants him dealt (including softy).
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    Can you imagine Zito in Fenway? Wow? Oh well, it couldn't be worst that the over 6 runs a game we have been giving up. I understand why the discussion as it frees up cash faster but I'd still probably bet on Crawford over Zito. I'd have to think more about that deal to make it. Not only is Huff not healthy mentallly right now, he's also superfluous in this lineup. Do we need a DH/1st baseman/aging 3rd baseman? As I said, I'd try to do the deal without Huff, but we'd have to pay some cash instead. I also said we'd probably cut Huff. My deal is not about getting Zito, though I think he can rebound and has shown good signs this year, but more to free up salary for the long-term health of this team, and to make room for Middlebrooks. Gotta say, I agree with Crit. One walk and he's OUT OF THERE!  Do any of you guys think that by now maybe, just maybe, Salty isn't helping the CERA situation? He's looked better that last 10 games or so, but he is still light years away from VTek. harness would be screaming "I told you so!" if he were back. BV is going to look pretty bad as long as he keeps sending one of the worst pitching staffs in the league out there every game. Is Mortensen the RH Okajima or what? He should be good for at least one time around the league ...and maybe more. The pen is definitely coming around. We still have Tazawa and Melancon in AAA! Moon - you are really crunching the numbers. It reminds me of when I had to coach a bad team. That was so much work trying to squeeze a few wins out. It's tough to even discuss this team in a fun way. I fear we all will be on whatever coolaid Softy has been drinking by the end of the year.  We need Ellsbury back. I am confident that Lester and Beckett will come back. Jon has already pitched much better. Our fielding has been about the worst I have ever seen. Ellsbury, Middlebrook, and Iggy would change that radically, and help the team ERA. As I said all winter long during my trade Salty rants, Lava can not do much worse in CERA-related areas. I also said at the time of the AGon trade, that moving Youk to 3B was not wise. I suggested trading him and was soundly bashed (led by softy). Now, that his trade value is near zero, nearly everyone wants him dealt (including softy).
    Posted by moonslav59
    But is Salty "light years" away from where Varitek WAS at this stage of his career? 
    Salty's calling looks good to me -- and apparently also to the pen. Or does CERA only count for starters? Are you tracking pitches. Salty has been setting up a nice rhythm for pitchers. Too bad they don't always dance well to it.
    I must say that I was a little surprised when Shoppach did NOT call for breaking stuff or a straight change to Butler. He is known to chase bad breaking balls.

     
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