A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Guys, I went to the Oakland vs. Detroit game on Saturday.  The young A's pitcher looked great and Reddick had a hit (two homers the night before) as the A's won 3-1.  Detroit has been having trouble with its relief pitching and lack of hitting.  I think Cabrera and their new first baseman were 0 for 8 in the game.  Detroit tried to do some bunting to get its offense going, but not much came of it.  Inge didn't get a hit against his old team, but he's been hitting really well since arriving.  The A's fans were really into this game; their team has won a few in a row and they are excited.

    Well, the RS are on a streak.  I'm not saying anything right now as I don't want to jinx 'em.  Go Sox!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm not saying you are devaluing Ellbury Moon. I'm not even saying trading Ellsbury is inherently a bad idea. I'm saying that it is extremely unlikely. We are probably going to ride him until his contract is through, because we are a big market team which attempts to win it all every year.

    I understand this point, and this kind of trade is not "in the norm" for the Sox. The Nomar deal is probably the closest comparison, since we knew we were not bringing him back, Theo got what he could for him.

    I do think that Sox management knows it is not likely he returns after 2013. That is a rarity for a Sox star, so this makes the situation noncomparable to the typical "big market team which attempts to win it all every year". The Sox have shown they want to win every year, but also value the future.

    I don't think trading Ellsbury for prospects this deadline is writing off 2013. The money saved coupled with the lost contracts of nonperforming players like Jenks, Dice-K and others will allow us to be better next year even without Ellsbury. I truly believe that. We could make a big trade with the prospects gained from the Jacoby trade and make 2-4 key FA signings.



    Now if we are 10-15 games out by the all star break either this year or next ( particularly next ), then maybe. I don't think that is likely though.

    Ellsbury is worth more now or thsi winter than the 2013 deadline, since trading him mid seasons loses the value of the comp picks, since they are lost by mid-season trades. That's a huge value.



    I've been maintaing for a while now that if we can just get some starting pitching, this team could go on a roll. We may be on one right now.

    I still am not happy with out 5 man rotation plus a returning Dice-K. Maybe Mortensen can step in, but I still think our pitching (and defense) is our weakness.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    We now appear to have a very deep pen. That is a great resource to have. If Lester, Bard, Doubront keep producing like they have that is good. If we can just get Buchholz and Beckett in the fold this team could go on a run similar to the one in mid season last year. Getting Youk and Ellsbury back. Or going win hot hands like Middlebrooks and Nava. It all comes down to those starters.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    BTW, I have no problem trading Ellsbury for prospects but I really think we should try to win a championship instead. As long as we are in it, I'll take the picks. I just hope we get the picks. And the championship!

    Even one top pick is a lot of return. For example Bradley this year was a comp pick wasn't he? And Barnes was available because of letting a free agent go. What a difference even one top pick can make. in today's draft world I would put even a 20th pick in the first round as worth $15 mil in most drafts.

    Take the picks unless we are out of it! 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    BTW, I have no problem trading Ellsbury for prospects but I really think we should try to win a championship instead. As long as we are in it, I'll take the picks. I just hope we get the picks. And the championship!

    I certainly want us to win a ring soon. We have a better chance of winning in 2012 or 2013 with Jacoby than by trading him for prospects. However, trading him before next year begins allows the team getting him to get those valuable comp picks if he walks on them. In theory, that increases his return value by alot. We could try and win in 2013 by flipping the prospects we get for Jacoby to another team to get a good player too.

    Even one top pick is a lot of return. For example Bradley this year was a comp pick wasn't he? And Barnes was available because of letting a free agent go. What a difference even one top pick can make. in today's draft world I would put even a 20th pick in the first round as worth $15 mil in most drafts.

    I get this point, but now it is more difficult to get top players with comp picks under the new system.

    Take the picks unless we are out of it! 

    I do think this is probably how Ben sees it (maybe trade him July 2013), but I do not think it is clear. This is a unique case, like Nomar, where all bets are off.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Looking back on the Nomar trade, if he was healthy and could play SS every day at the deadline, for all the swirl around him the RS probably would have played out the season with him and then let him walk, just like they did with Lowe and Pedro and did the following year with Millar, Mueller and Damon.

    Remember, they really needed Cabrera at the deadline, Nomar could not play every day and Reese was on the DL.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Looking back on the Nomar trade, if he was healthy and could play SS every day at the deadline, for all the swirl around him the RS probably would have played out the season with him and then let him walk, just like they did with Lowe and Pedro and did the following year with Millar, Mueller and Damon. 

    Remember, they really needed Cabrera at the deadline, Nomar could not play every day and Reese was on the DL.

    Good points.

    There really hasn't been any examples of us being sellers in the sense of big ticket Sox players traded before they walk.

    David Wells doesn't really count.

    I will say that in the Pedro and Lowe cases, I wasn't so sure they were walking as I am with Jacoby's case. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I 100 percent agree. The Sox were desperate to have an every day wide-range defensive SS (the hitting by him was gravy) and Nomar was hurting and Reese, who was fantastic in his short time there, was on the DL. Good point. And, Nomar would have played out the year, and then left for the large pay day elsewhere. It was a bold move by Theo that worked. It could have just as easily backfired. People forget Nomar played quite well in 03 and was a catalyst on that team.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    On Nomar, I was fooled by the hype on Nomar's defense, but as many of you know, I really love great fielding SSs and have always wanted us to have one.  For years and year, I had argued with friends and relatives that Nomar should play 2B, and we should get a "real SS". The day we traded for Cabrera, I remember calling my brothers in law and telling them, "we traded Nomare for Cabrera and we are going to win the World Series!" (They laughed at me, and said, "Orlando who?")

    I was bummed that the Gonzo era ended so soon, and Theo gave up on the idea so quickly.

    (Yes, the Pokey Reese injury prevented another chance at winning via defense.) 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Nomar in his day had a cannon for an arm. He did not have breath taking range but he could make plays deep in the whole with that arm that Jeter only dreamed about.

    Yeah there probably was an argument to move Nomar to second rather than Reese. Bellhorn was a pretty poor 2B defensively, but in 2004 the guy was an K machine that produced a pretty darn high OBP. (.817 OPS that year but 177 Ks that drove many fans nuts). At any rate it all worked, that team IMO was a classic example of marginal D, good pitching and video game offense. Lot of average or marginal defensive players on that team and for all the RS thought for minute that Minky would be an uptick over Millar in the end Minky's bigest contribution was lighting a fire under Millar's but and lat inning defense when the RS had the lead.

    I know Alex Gonzalez was and has been a really smooth and sure handed SS but IMHO his range has never been "jaw dropping".  In fact in his day while he muffed his share of routine plays, Lugo IMHO had more range (debateable I know).

    On the subject of Ellsbury, I think a lot will be tempered by whether the RS think they can go deep this next or next. If not, by all means they should trade Ellsbury if they can get a solid return. The RS simply aren't going to able to pay CC and Ellsbury in their OF. Sadly Ellsbury is probably the better of the two players but IMHO neither guy is a $20M OFer.

    Long term deals are tough on the back end most of the time when they work and incredibly painful if the guy falters early in like CC has so far. The owners over the last few years have not modified the length of contracts at all (10 years for the 32 year old Puljos? 7 years for Werth at age 32?) I can't see with Boras as his representative where Ellsbury won't be looking for a contract at least the length of Werth's and if he shows close to the productivity he did in 2011 when he returns from the DL and 2012 the numbers could huge.

    Years of service versus picks or prospects only has value if you are going to seriously contend over the next year and half IMHO. If the RS do, great, but while I am not ready to just write off the RS it is hard to buy in 100% based on this recent streak against the Indians and M's either.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    I will say that in the Pedro and Lowe cases, I wasn't so sure they were walking as I am with Jacoby's case. 
    Posted by moonslav59
    Pedro I wasn't sure of because I never really thought a team like the Mets would get involved, so I thought the RS could get Pedro on terms they could live with. In fact the RS brain trust was conflicted on what to do with Pedro.

    Lowe? Seemed to me the second he turned down the RS offer that spring for 3 for $27M and had a rotten regular season, that he was gone. By the deadline you just knew the RS weren't going to up that spring offer. I think the RS did not trade Lowe because they had no ready replacement and he had little to no value at that time as a walk away FA with a 1.615 WHIP. Now I realize the offensive eras were different but to put that into perspective last year Lackey had a 1.619 WHIP.

    It has been a long time since the RS would value futures more than present services (totally out of contention at the deadline), hopefully this won't be the year either. This next road trip will tell us a little more about this team than this last home stand did I think.

     
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Katz, I completely agree with you that we will know a lot more after some games against some tougher teams.  For now it's great they seem to be settling in and the pitchers finding themselves, pen doing well, and the hitters and team as a whole finding its rhythm.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    Katz, I completely agree with you that we will know a lot more after some games against some tougher teams.  For now it's great they seem to be settling in and the pitchers finding themselves, pen doing well, and the hitters and team as a whole finding its rhythm.
    Posted by Critter23
    Yes it is. Now if A-Gon could find his power stroke it could be fun and maybe the cloud from last September will start to lift.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7933461/luis-ayala-jim-johnson-matt-wieters-surprising-baltimore-orioles

    Great article on the Orioles if anyone is interested.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Nomar in his day had a cannon for an arm. He did not have breath taking range but he could make plays deep in the whole with that arm that Jeter only dreamed about. 

    With all due respect, I totally disagree. It was a mirage. His jumping-twiasting throws from the hole were not needed. Most other SSs would simple plant and throw. (Nomars twisting throws were better suited for a 2Bman going up the middle to make a stop and throw. There, twisting is needed.)

    Yeah there probably was an argument to move Nomar to second rather than Reese. Bellhorn was a pretty poor 2B defensively, but in 2004 the guy was an K machine that produced a pretty darn high OBP. (.817 OPS that year but 177 Ks that drove many fans nuts). At any rate it all worked, that team IMO was a classic example of marginal D, good pitching and video game offense. Lot of average or marginal defensive players on that team and for all the RS thought for minute that Minky would be an uptick over Millar in the end Minky's bigest contribution was lighting a fire under Millar's but and lat inning defense when the RS had the lead. 

    Agreed.

    I know Alex Gonzalez was and has been a really smooth and sure handed SS but IMHO his range has never been "jaw dropping".  In fact in his day while he muffed his share of routine plays, Lugo IMHO had more range (debateable I know). 

    Granted, he had lost a step by the time we got him, but I still think he was worth keeping around, and as it turned out, his bat caught fire those years.

    On the subject of Ellsbury, I think a lot will be tempered by whether the RS think they can go deep this next or next. If not, by all means they should trade Ellsbury if they can get a solid return. The RS simply aren't going to able to pay CC and Ellsbury in their OF. Sadly Ellsbury is probably the better of the two players but IMHO neither guy is a $20M OFer. 

    You state my position here better (and in less words) than I ever could do.

    Long term deals are tough on the back end most of the time when they work and incredibly painful if the guy falters early in like CC has so far. The owners over the last few years have not modified the length of contracts at all (10 years for the 32 year old Puljos? 7 years for Werth at age 32?) I can't see with Boras as his representative where Ellsbury won't be looking for a contract at least the length of Werth's and if he shows close to the productivity he did in 2011 when he returns from the DL and 2012 the numbers could huge. 

    I totally agree, but my position takes it even further: even if we do match the highest offer for Ellsbury or even exceed it by a little, I still think he walks. This is what makes his case unique in recent Red Sox history, and why I think we should try to find equal value (not less) and trade him this July if we are 10-12 out or this winter.

    Years of service versus picks or prospects only has value if you are going to seriously contend over the next year and half IMHO. If the RS do, great, but while I am not ready to just write off the RS it is hard to buy in 100% based on this recent streak against the Indians and M's either.

    Correct, we should know more by July.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It's painful to know that we might be trading the greater commodity and keeping the lesser.  I would like to know if Ells still has hard feelings about comments made when he was injured before or has that blown over.  As you've pointed out Moon, even if RS wanted him and he wanted RS, the money is probably not there.  I would like to know who was on point for acquiring CC...
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    I still am not happy with out 5 man rotation plus a returning Dice-K. Maybe Mortensen can step in, but I still think our pitching (and defense) is our weakness.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Think of it this way Moon.  If we had traded for a starter, the ones we aren't happy with right now would still be among our starting 5 and we'd have given up some very nice prospects.  

    It will be interesting to see what happens to the log jam that our BP has become.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Think of it this way Moon.  If we had traded for a starter, the ones we aren't happy with right now would still be among our starting 5 and we'd have given up some very nice prospects.  

    It will be interesting to see what happens to the log jam that our BP has become.

    But, there'd be the best 4 of the 5 NOT 5.

    Bard might go back to the pen and make it even stronger.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    moon, did you catch Tim's quote. He literally said he wouldn't rule out returning this year. Amazing he would say that after 2 retirement ceremonies/tributes. Just shows you how badly he wanted to pitch this year and for Sox.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    He's a "gamer" at heart.

    His will to compete was misjudged by many here as being selfish.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It's great to see our starters rounding into form. A great sign!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    moon, did you catch Tim's quote. He literally said he wouldn't rule out returning this year. Amazing he would say that after 2 retirement ceremonies/tributes. Just shows you how badly he wanted to pitch this year and for Sox.
    Posted by dannycater



    I want to pitch for the Red Sox even more "badly" than Wakefield, is it a good idea?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    not the point, burrito. the point is that Tim bled redsox and still does and to me, it's almost like he's saying I'll back you up even now. However, your comment is another example of how much you really wanted him gone. So he's gone. I'd rather have him than not. Even now, yes.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    a knuckleballer can just as easily bounce back and pitch well after some bad outings. It's part of the business.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I won't challenge your sentimentality but I have to challenge your common sense! Anyhow all if good fun, good night dcater!
     
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