A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    As I've said elsewhere, I like this club's chances if they can hang in there until everyone is healthy and stays healthy. It has a roster with notable talents. ( Joe keeps talking about all the "all-stars." That a designation for honors over time. But ask Terry about those all-stars last September. They cost him his job. All stars are players who perform like all stars, not ones who have the honor on their resume. Baseball is about now. ) It has started to click. It is being well managed, by and large. It has many attractive personalities and a few intriguing ones. Maybe some people are playing over their heads -- like, say, Nava and Scutaro -- but that is part of what makes the club likable. Salty is coming into his own and, as BV has said, is taking on more of a leadership role. Catchers need to do that.
    The big exception so far is Gonzalez. He is playing under his head. ( He made funny remarks about being only a "two tool" player: he can catch and throw. ) But he's very much on the team. He'll play cheerfully where he's put. He supports his teammates. One keeps thinking, "This can't go on." The big stick will show up any day now. One pulls hard for him. When he heats up, this club could really be dangerous.
    All in all, IMO, the developments this season have been fascinating and generally encouraging.  Whatever the outcome, this team is doing its best to blow away the bad odor from last year. You can't ask anything more from a team.  

    Good post, ex.  I do think the return of Ellsbury, Ross, Bailey, CC, and others will give this scrappy team a big boost, however, I still think we are a big arm away from being serious contenders for the ring. I know that making the playoffs gives everyone a chance, but we'd need a lot of things to go right to win with our top starting 4 pitchers come playoff time. We have an abundance of good bench players even with all these guys out hurt. When they return, it should be time for 1 or 2 trades involving 3 for 1 or 2 for 1 upgrades, hopefully not including top prospects.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]As I've said elsewhere, I like this club's chances if they can hang in there until everyone is healthy and stays healthy. It has a roster with notable talents. ( Joe keeps talking about all the "all-stars." That a designation for honors over time. But ask Terry about those all-stars last September. They cost him his job. All stars are players who perform like all stars, not ones who have the honor on their resume. Baseball is about now. ) It has started to click. It is being well managed, by and large. It has many attractive personalities and a few intriguing ones. Maybe some people are playing over their heads -- like, say, Nava and Scutaro -- but that is part of what makes the club likable. Salty is coming into his own and, as BV has said, is taking on more of a leadership role. Catchers need to do that. The big exception so far is Gonzalez. He is playing under his head. ( He made funny remarks about being only a "two tool" player: he can catch and throw. ) But he's very much on the team. He'll play cheerfully where he's put. He supports his teammates. One keeps thinking, "This can't go on." The big stick will show up any day now. One pulls hard for him. When he heats up, this club could really be dangerous. All in all, IMO, the developments this season have been fascinating and generally encouraging.  Whatever the outcome, this team is doing its best to blow away the bad odor from last year. You can't ask anything more from a team.   Good post, ex.  I do think the return of Ellsbury, Ross, Bailey, CC, and others will give this scrappy team a big boost, however, I still think we are a big arm away from being serious contenders for the ring. I know that making the playoffs gives everyone a chance, but we'd need a lot of things to go right to win with our top starting 4 pitchers come playoff time. We have an abundance of good bench players even with all these guys out hurt. When they return, it should be time for 1 or 2 trades involving 3 for 1 or 2 for 1 upgrades, hopefully not including top prospects.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    I have been in agreement with you all along in principle on this issue. Even if Doubront and Bard pitch pretty well, they will be on an innings limit. One or both could be pulled from the rotation even before that limit owing to ineffectiveness. ( Right now, the candidate for that looks to be Bard. ) Buchholz is problematic. Cook and/or Matsuzaka would seem to be likely candidates to take over. If so, results remain to be seen.
    Great if Ben can swing a trade to acquire a solid starter without depleting the farm or giving up Salty. But it won't be easy. It may require parting with a promising player, though not, say, someone like Middlebrooks. It will probably come down to where the Sox stand approaching the trade deadline if not before. If Ben thinks that the club can make a serious run at the big prize, he just might give what it will take to get what he wants. At this moment we can't know how the FO is thinking along a timeline. Events on the field will have an effect on those considerations.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I have been in agreement with you all along in principle on this issue. Even if Doubront and Bard pitch pretty well, they will be on an innings limit. One or both could be pulled from the rotation even before that limit owing to ineffectiveness. ( Right now, the candidate for that looks to be Bard. ) Buchholz is problematic. Cook and/or Matsuzaka would seem to be likely candidates to take over. If so, results remain to be seen.
    Great if Ben can swing a trade to acquire a solid starter without depleting the farm or giving up Salty. But it won't be easy. It may require parting with a promising player, though not, say, someone like Middlebrooks. It will probably come down to where the Sox stand approaching the trade deadline if not before. If Ben thinks that the club can make a serious run at the big prize, he just might give what it will take to get what he wants. At this moment we can't know how the FO is thinking along a timeline. Events on the field will have an effect on those considerations.

    Ideally, we could make a 3 for 1 deal at the dealine for a player that not only helps this year but for 2013 and perhaps beyond. That's not easy, especially if we try to do it without losing prospects. 

    Not including prospects causes roster issues for the team gaining 3 MLB players for just one departing slot. We'd need qa lot of things to happen to match up perfectly with a team (like they have 2 guys going on the DL or they turn around and deal 2 for 1 to someone else.

    My idea may not net us a superstud pitcher, but basically this is my vision:

    Trade to a playoff-competing team in need of a lot of bullpen help (decent innings eaters):

    Any 3: Albers, Atchison, Miller, Padilla, or Cook

    For a capable starting pitcher.

    or

    Trade Buch or Bard with 2 of the above guys for a better starter.

    or

    Trade Buch or Bard with some guys with longer team control like Melancon, Mortensen, or Morales for a better starter also under team control for 2+ years.

    The theory is that Albers and Atchison can probably be replaced by Bailey and Mortensen (or others) without a loss, but we gain by having a better starter.

    I realize that this is highly problematic, and may turn into a 3 team deal to make it happen, but we need to do something like this or we will be DFA'ing some good players unless we get creative.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Carnie, I go to Maine for the summer so I won't be here.  But I can go to the Sea Dogs in Portland and work up an amateur report for my Head Area Scout, Boom.

    Moon, in regards to your idea of adding an experienced starter, I remember last year you made a great point that such an addition doesn't just improve that one spot, it improves your whole staff.  In this case it would seem it definitely would by putting Bard with the relievers for example.  By the way, are you going to be in Maine?

    I hope for the RS and for Bard that he can win today.  That might be a confidence booster.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Ex, I too support Salty and hope for continuing improvement and agree that young players like Middlebrooks and Lava offer a lot of potential.  But I wouldn't object to any of these guys being thrown into Moon's trade scenarios as all reports seem to indicate that catchers and third baseman on the farm will soon be ready with just as much talent.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Ex, I too support Salty and hope for continuing improvement and agree that young players like Middlebrooks and Lava offer a lot of potential.  But I wouldn't object to any of these guys being thrown into Moon's trade scenarios as all reports seem to indicate that catchers and third baseman on the farm will soon be ready with just as much talent.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]
    Crit, in principle, as I said, I agree with Moon; but I'd have to see the actual names first.
    A lot of players over time have been called "talented" and "ready." But a bird in the hand.... The way Salty is performing behind the plate ( he's become a scoop machine ) and handling the staff, this is not the time to trade him, IMO, unless the Sox got the sweetheart deal of all sweetheart deals. 
    I think that the hardest jumps in baseball are from high school to college and from AAA to the majors.
    It's great if farm hands are looking good, but I don't think now is the time to rock the boat -- unless the Sox get a luxurious cruise ship, without an Italian captain. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Carnie, I go to Maine for the summer so I won't be here.  But I can go to the Sea Dogs in Portland and work up an amateur report for my Head Area Scout, Boom.

    Moon, in regards to your idea of adding an experienced starter, I remember last year you made a great point that such an addition doesn't just improve that one spot, it improves your whole staff.  In this case it would seem it definitely would by putting Bard with the relievers for example.  

    Yes, I still feel this way.

    By the way, are you going to be in Maine?

    Yes, from June 26th to July 9th and then on to Salvador, Brazil for 3 weeks.

    I hope for the RS and for Bard that he can win today.  That might be a confidence booster.

    It's good we won, but am not sure his confidence was boosted a lot.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Crit, in principle, as I said, I agree with Moon; but I'd have to see the actual names first.

    No doubt, ex. While I often mention trade possibilities, I am never for trading just for the sake of trading. It will not be easy to make the type of trade I am settting out here, especially one not involving young prospects or players with 2+ years of team control. The teams interested in 3  guys like Albers, Atchison Padilla, Cook, and Miller for a playoff push, will not likely have an "extra starter" that is better than the worst one we have at deadline time. We'd probably have to give our 5th starter ( a step down for them and up for us) and they'd get an instant deep pen while we refill with equal level pitchers within our system. The other type of team we might deal with would be one looking to dump salary, and they would likely want guys like Morales, Melancon, Mortensen along with Bard or Buch. I'd avoid this type of deal unless we get a player under team control for 2+ years.

    When we get closer to the deadline, I'll try and "name names" as suggestions. 

    A lot of players over time have been called "talented" and "ready." 

    I tend to agree here.

    But a bird in the hand.... The way Salty is performing behind the plate ( he's become a scoop machine ) and handling the staff, this is not the time to trade him, IMO, unless the Sox got the sweetheart deal of all sweetheart deals. 

    I was big on trading Salty this winter, but I am being swayed into believing Salty is turning the corner (or has already). As many times, as I mentioned the merits of trading Salty after his stock had risen and the merits of giving Lava a shot, I also stated that Salty is at the age now that VTek was when he got his chance and started to shine (and learn). I never doubted Salty's bat vs RHPs. I did doubt his defense and staff handling, but I am happy he is proving me wrong.

    I think that the hardest jumps in baseball are from high school to college and from AAA to the majors.
    It's great if farm hands are looking good, but I don't think now is the time to rock the boat -- unless the Sox get a luxurious cruise ship, without an Italian captain. 

    I'd really love to get a top quality pitcher. I'm willing to trade some kids to make it happen. I'm confdent our lower minor league level prospects are going to rise fast to take the place of those we trade. I don't want to do it for a 2 month rental.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In response to "Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II": [QUOTE]Yes, from June 26th to July 9th and then on to Salvador, Brazil for 3 weeks. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Moon - I'm jealous. Have some vatapa for me ... maybe wash it down with a Brahma Chopp.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I have 5 sisters. One in France. One in Brazil. And one in New Zealand. 

    I've been to Bahia, Brazil 3 times for a total of 12 weeks. I love it there! I enjoy the lighter beer (I think it is called) "Antartca". They are served ice cold (1 L) with styrofoam bottle insulators right on the beach. Fresh cooked whole fish and shrimp & crabs. White sands. The people, food, nightlife, and culture are unique. I can't wait.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Top Sox OPS after 44 games:

    Nava 1.091
    Ortiz   .966
    Midd   .889
    Shop  .888
    Ross  .883
    Avile  .871
    Salty  .857
    Pede  .810
    Swee .784
    AGon .739
    Youk  .716
    DMac .634
    Ells    .569
    Byrd  .477
    Punto .460

    If I had said that AGon, Youk, and Ells would be in the bottom 6 out of 15 Sox hitters after 44 games, who'd have believed it?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Antarctica beer is good and they do make the best guarana. Man, I miss suco de caju and that avocado ice cream. I only spent a week in Bahia but was in Fortaleza for 4 months. Nothing like sitting on a beautiful beach under a barraca drinking ice cold beer and having someone come around every 15 mins to see if he table needs a fresh liter (or shrimp or coconut ...). The crime is a bit of a hassle and the poverty in the favelas is appalling but otherwise what a country. The people there are amazing. I've never seen the equal of their warmth, generosity and hospitality.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Antarctica beer is good and they do make the best guarana. 

    I love the Guarana! I had forgotten that until you mentioned it. I also love the Acai drinks they make. The variety of fruits is amazing. I never knew there were dozens of types of bananas.

    Man, I miss suco de caju and that avocado ice cream. I only spent a week in Bahia but was in Fortaleza for 4 months. Nothing like sitting on a beautiful beach under a barraca drinking ice cold beer and having someone come around every 15 mins to see if he table needs a fresh liter (or shrimp or coconut ...)

    I remember the kids of the beach workers walking around with watering cans of cool ocean water and pooring it over our hot feet.

    The crime is a bit of a hassle and the poverty in the favelas is appalling but otherwise what a country. 

    I've never had any crime problems except a group of teens stole my hat off my head during a crowded Carnival mania show.

    The people there are amazing. I've never seen the equal of their warmth, generosity and hospitality.

    Second to none. They love foreigners and their hospitality and friendliness seems very genuine.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    There is a poster on the Baltimore Sun Orioles site named "AntiMoon" hmmmmmmmmm......
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Pretty soon Moon...your persona will go global!

    You have paparazzi!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I could live with Agon in RF at Yankee stadium and in NL parks like Philly but normally he will be exposed badly out there. He did well but he is very slow and his range would be one of the worst in baseball in a large sample size.
    and do we want this guy to get hurt running around out there?

    I really hate saying it but to me trading Middlebrooks for a prospect of equal value in an area of greater need is possibly an ideal solution. For example the Rangers have a great SS now but they also have Profar coming up. Bamm, shortstop problem solved. Of course Profar is probably still considered the better prospect and the Rangers have a solid 3rd base guy also but you get my point. That sort of trade is probably not going to happen but it might be the best way to handle this. For example, we could get one of the top OF prospects in the game for Middlebrooks right now.

    You see, several of our top prospects coming up are probable 3rd basemen ( Bogaerts and Cecchini ). And I for one am not throwing one of my favorite players under the bus ( Youk ). We really do not have a place for both of them. One of them has to go. That is probably a given.

    Ideally though Youk is probably a 1st baseman going forward and not many teams want to pay him $13 mil next year. If he comes back and hits well the remainder of this year though they might. He might still be of trade value. Ergo, BV saying his 3rd base value is not done. He's worth a whole lot more to most teams at 3rd. We will probably see lots of good reports coming out about Youk in the coming weeks. We all know he is being shopped. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The farm is really stepping up this year. Lots of guys most of us have never heard of like Vinicio and Cruz having great years. Cecchinni being solid again this year. Barnes and Bradley being off the chart studs. I love those off the charts guys as they often become real solid mlb level contributors. Does Barnes not look like at least a #2 at this point? Man could we use that going forward.

    Lavarnway is improving defensively and even though Swihart's numbers are pretty bad he has started hitting recently at over .300 for his last 10 games and he has been a pleasant surprise defensively. Iglesias is up to .275 with solid D. Lavarnway is hitting ok but past history has been that he often starts slow but finishes very fast. Brentz is doing fine. Overall most guys are on target like Tazawa and Brandon Jacobs. This might be our strongest farm position in the last 10 years and we have had very solid farm situations for a long time. Last year's draft looks like our best since at least 2005.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Call me crazy but we are starting to accumulate "excess" talent in several positions. For example at catcher, 3rd and even SS. Salty is surprising me and if he keeps it up he should be of significant value. I'd consider selling him high though right now!

    OK, most of you probably don't agree as he is having a great year and appearing to emerge as a solid guy. And we need all hands on deck this year to pull us back into it. Maybe we will keep him and win it all!

    Good for Salty. I hope to one day give a full mea culpa! 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Off topic question.

    Can anyone think of a Sox player who had a great season when young and then disappeared (not due to injury) like Adam Lind?  On top of that Aaron Hill slumped so badly he was traded, and his form has returned.

    Lind was released this weak and I feel for a Jays fan who in 2009 thought they had to young studs only for disaster to follow.   Lind's year was just a fluke in retrospect.
      
    2009    age    OPS 09and since
    Lind     25       .932   .712   .734   .586  
    Hill      27       .829   .665   .584 traded


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I could live with Agon in RF at Yankee stadium and in NL parks like Philly but normally he will be exposed badly out there. He did well but he is very slow and his range would be one of the worst in baseball in a large sample size.
    and do we want this guy to get hurt running around out there?

    Can you live with AGon in LF in Fenway and other small LF parks?

    I really hate saying it but to me trading Middlebrooks for a prospect of equal value in an area of greater need is possibly an ideal solution. For example the Rangers have a great SS now but they also have Profar coming up. Bamm, shortstop problem solved. Of course Profar is probably still considered the better prospect and the Rangers have a solid 3rd base guy also but you get my point. That sort of trade is probably not going to happen but it might be the best way to handle this. For example, we could get one of the top OF prospects in the game for Middlebrooks right now.


    You see, several of our top prospects coming up are probable 3rd basemen ( Bogaerts and Cecchini ). And I for one am not throwing one of my favorite players under the bus ( Youk ). We really do not have a place for both of them. One of them has to go. That is probably a given.

    Since we'd get almost nothing for Youk, that really leaves just one guy... that is if we chose to go all out for this year alone. Looking to 2013, Middlebrooks makes more sense than paying Youk $13M, although moving Aviles to 3B and Iggy at SS could solve that problem quickly.

    Ideally though Youk is probably a 1st baseman going forward and not many teams want to pay him $13 mil next year. If he comes back and hits well the remainder of this year though they might. He might still be of trade value. Ergo, BV saying his 3rd base value is not done. He's worth a whole lot more to most teams at 3rd. We will probably see lots of good reports coming out about Youk in the coming weeks. We all know he is being shopped. 

    If we offered to pay $3M of his remaining $8M this year, and $6M out of $13M next year, then the 1.7 years of Youk might be more enticing to some other teams. We save money and give Middlebrooks his shot.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Pretty soon Moon...your persona will go global!

    There was a sunslav here a while ago stalking me.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Off topic question.

    Can anyone think of a Sox player who had a great season when young and then disappeared (not due to injury) like Adam Lind?  On top of that Aaron Hill slumped so badly he was traded, and his form has returned.

    Lind was released this weak and I feel for a Jays fan who in 2009 thought they had to young studs only for disaster to follow.   Lind's year was just a fluke in retrospect.
      
    2009    age    OPS 09and since
    Lind     25       .932   .712   .734   .586  
    Hill      27       .829   .665   .584 traded


    (Not sure if injuries were involved, but here's a list of possibilities, also some didn't really have "great years" either, but this might make some nice conversational starters.)

    Pre-2000

    Roger Moret
    Don Aase
    Glen Hoffman
    John Tudor
    Al Nipper

    ( 2 injury players that stand out were Carlos Quintana and Jeff Gray ... what a shame!)
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Ex and Moon, I agree with the "bird in hand" which is what we have, knowing that Salty is doing an adequate job.  But I wake up this morning just feeling that our starting needs a boost as you've been promoting Moon, but if we wait until the deadline, will that be too late?  The pitchers coming back are relievers except for Dice-K; my feelings about that are RS nation should not expect much if anything from him coming back from an injury, and just when will he be back?  The point is our relief corps might be improved but I'm not hopeful our starting can be from within. It may be unrealistic to get a starter now, but I'm posing if getting one at the deadline is soon enough?  Which takes me back to Salty.  I would trade him thinking that a solid starter might be more valuable than a catcher, and a catcher easier to replace.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Ex and Moon, I agree with the "bird in hand" which is what we have, knowing that Salty is doing an adequate job.  But I wake up this morning just feeling that our starting needs a boost as you've been promoting Moon, but if we wait until the deadline, will that be too late?  The pitchers coming back are relievers except for Dice-K; my feelings about that are RS nation should not expect much if anything from him coming back from an injury, and just when will he be back?  The point is our relief corps might be improved but I'm not hopeful our starting can be from within. It may be unrealistic to get a starter now, but I'm posing if getting one at the deadline is soon enough?  Which takes me back to Salty.  I would trade him thinking that a solid starter might be more valuable than a catcher, and a catcher easier to replace.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]
    It's very risky, Crit, to trade a catcher who's on a roll with his pitching staff. Though it's unlikely that Salty will continue to hit for a full season as he has been for a while, his primary job is defense. He's looking very good behind the plate with the glove and, IMO, with his pitch-calling. It takes time to develop both of these skills at a ML level. 
    Your question about the deadline being soon enough to acquire a starter is well founded. But starters who could make a real difference in the Sox rotation are not easy to come by. Even if one were available, Ben would have to think at least twice before parting with what it would take to make the deal. 


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Considering the premium on power hitting 3B's in MLB historically I think trading Middlebrooks is risky business. Just because the RS have other 3B prospects does not mean they will pan out. 

    I don't see Gonzalez as a very long term solution in RF (particularly for home games) either. Gonzo in the OF was in my opinion a short term, desperation move created by have so many OFers already on the DL.

    It is pretty clear IMO that they won't be picking up Youk's option for 2013. And I am sure the RS would like to see Youk increase his trade value before making a mid-year move.

    The current configuration is just kicking the can a further down road for the moment...
     
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