A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from 6k42lt913c. Show 6k42lt913c's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    The religion and Martin threads finally ran their course and now the Ozzie-Cuba thread. What a shame that those threads were started and were enabled and detracted from baseball talk. Finally Teilhardien is ready to discuss baseball instead of flaunting that he studied Teilhardien and was a student at Harvard Divinity School. Put away the white collar and put on your pinstriped uniform and rub elbows with altarboy Babe.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I will say this, moon..If the Red Sox can get another serviceable starter, and Youk can become more like the Youk of old, then the Red Sox will be contending for the division...Despite the 5 runs he gave up yesterday, I thought Bard looked pretty strong against the Jays..And it was positively sick the way he handled Bautista....Even though the Yanks won tonight, Sabathia pitched like Smiley-Beni was calling the game from behind the plate...He did not have it at all...The Yanks have only had one fairly good starting pitching performance so far, and that was Ivan Nova...The Yanks and Red Sox might end up fighting it out for the WC...Time will tell, but the Red Sox are a few pieces away and it is not as gloomy a forecast as many are suggesting...

    I've had my moments of gloom, but I remain optimistic about this season. I have been crying for another starter all winter, but it didn't happen. I hate deadline deals for starters: they rarely work out and are way over-priced for 2 months of service. 

    As much as I like this team, part of me thinks maybe our best palan would be to just shoot for 2013 or 2014 and go all out with that in mind. If I knew that was the plan, I'd be Ok with a mediocre season this year. I know we could get a ton for Ellsbury, something good for Youk, Salty, Papi and mayeb someone to eat a good chunk of CC's deal and then get some key free agents (like a top starting pitcher and big right-handed bopper OF'er or 3Bman) to go with the kids we get in our firesale along with this:

    C/DH Lava &  C Swihart (2014 at th earliest)
    1B AGon
    2B Pedey
    SS Iggy & Bogaerts
    3B Middlebrooks & Bogaerts/Cecchini
    LF Hassan & ? 
    CF Kalish & _?
    RF Sweeney &  ?
    DH ???

    S1 Beckett
    S2 Lester
    S3 ??? (Matt Cain?)
    S4 Buchholtz
    S5 Lackey
    S6 Doubront/Ranaudo/Barnes

    R1 Bailey
    R2 Bard
    R3 Melancon
    R4 Aceves
    R5 Morales
    R6 Bowden and others

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    ... Youk can become more like the Youk of old, then the Red Sox will be contending for the division...

    It's hard to imagine a plyer dropping off the face of the earth so suddenly. It doesn't happen often.

    Youk's career OPS:
                                            .975
                             .958  .961

                      .843                     .833
                .810
          .805
    .780                                            ???

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from 6k42lt913c. Show 6k42lt913c's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    One of the most despicable things on the forum this week was to pretend that you are a church going Christian and brag about going to Harvard Divinity School, complement Carnie on his signature line, and support Fidel Castro.  "Look at me Moonslav, I too studied Teilhardien in college, look at me". The forum has sunk to a new low and even Harness can put it back together again. Now we have trolls putting on fake white collars in order to falsely give them an air of credibility.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]One of the most despicable things on the forum this week was to pretend that you are a church going Christian and brag about going to Harvard Divinity School, complement Carnie on his signature line, and support Fidel Castro.  "Look at me Moonslav, I too studied Teilhardien in college, look at me". The forum has sunk to a new low and even Harness can put it back together again. Now we have trolls putting on fake white collars in order to falsely give them an air of credibility.
    Posted by 6k42lt913c[/QUOTE]

    This is a very Christian-like post. Find another thread to spew your distortions.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]The religion and Martin threads finally ran their course and now the Ozzie-Cuba thread. What a shame that those threads were started and were enabled and detracted from baseball talk. Finally Teilhardien is ready to discuss baseball instead of flaunting that he studied Teilhardien and was a student at Harvard Divinity School. Put away the white collar and put on your pinstriped uniform and rub elbows with altarboy Babe.
    Posted by 6k42lt913c[/QUOTE]
    You should never use the phrase "white collar." It's metaphorically your standard garb.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Guys do not debate with "it" as "it" will only serve to contaminate the purest thread on the forum.

    Now we are talking about Youk. Even if he bats .198 all year I will not back off that I thought he would be an asset this year and trading him last winter was a bad idea. However if he does dissolve into nothingness this year I certainly cannot see keeping him around.

    Is it possible that while some debate wether we let Ortiz go and have Youk DH in 2013 that neither player is here? Having said that, Ortiz at least looks fresh and his hitting the ball... I hope he will be a 30/100 guy this year.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Guvnor. Show Guvnor's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    anyone who actually believes this is a play off team is delusional, bordering on the certifiably mad...this team has more holes than a block of swiss cheese.


    its ok though , dice k is back and june and crawford should make an appearance in left sometime in may, brilliant.

    sox are the laughing stock of the mlb at the moment.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Guys do not debate with "it" as "it" will only serve to contaminate the purest thread on the forum. Now we are talking about Youk. Even if he bats .198 all year I will not back off that I thought he would be an asset this year and trading him last winter was a bad idea. However if he does dissolve into nothingness this year I certainly cannot see keeping him around. Is it possible that while some debate wether we let Ortiz go and have Youk DH in 2013 that neither player is here? Having said that, Ortiz at least looks fresh and his hitting the ball... I hope he will be a 30/100 guy this year.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Good points, burr.

    I had mentioned trading Youk this past winter, but I doubt we would have gotten much. I thought maybe we could have gotten some prospects, added a few more, and traded them for quality pitching and a bigger right-handed bat. The money savings might have helped us find another piece or two as well.

    Going forward, we have aboput $37M coming off the books next winter (Papi, Dice, Jenks, Ross, Shopp, and Padilla). If we don't take Youk's option, we'd have about $49M ($~46M off the luxury tax number).

    We have some big arbs coming up barring trades:
    Ells (last arb)
    Bailey (2nd of 3)
    Salty (last arb)
    Sweeney (last arb)
    Bard (2nd of 4)
    Aceves (2nd of 3)
    Aviles (2nd of 3)
    Albers (last one)
    Miller (2nd of 3)
    Morales (2nd of 3)
    R Hill (last one)
    DMac (1st of 3)

    If we decide to go with Lava over Papi and Shoppach, Middlebrooks or Iggy (Aviles to 3B) over Youk and Kalish over Ross, we'd have close to $50M to spend on FAs or trade pick-ups. We could also see Jacoby being traded. If we keep some of our FAs to be (Papi and Youk), we still have about $23M of dead weight or easily replaced players coming off the books.

    Lackey will be back. Who knows about CC?

    Let's hope Youk regains at least 80% of his past production, and yes, let's also hope Papi goes 30/100+. 


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]... Youk can become more like the Youk of old, then the Red Sox will be contending for the division... It's hard to imagine a plyer dropping off the face of the earth so suddenly. It doesn't happen often. Youk's career OPS:                                         .975                          .958  .961                   .843                     .833             .810       .805 .780                                            ???
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    It's 6 games; period. Is he a little over the hill? Perhaps. So is MO.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I will say this, moon..If the Red Sox can get another serviceable starter, and Youk can become more like the Youk of old, then the Red Sox will be contending for the division...Despite the 5 runs he gave up yesterday, I thought Bard looked pretty strong against the Jays..And it was positively sick the way he handled Bautista....Even though the Yanks won tonight, Sabathia pitched like Smiley-Beni was calling the game from behind the plate...He did not have it at all...The Yanks have only had one fairly good starting pitching performance so far, and that was Ivan Nova...The Yanks and Red Sox might end up fighting it out for the WC...Time will tell, but the Red Sox are a few pieces away and it is not as gloomy a forecast as many are suggesting... I've had my moments of gloom, but I remain optimistic about this season. I have been crying for another starter all winter, but it didn't happen. I hate deadline deals for starters: they rarely work out and are way over-priced for 2 months of service.  As much as I like this team, part of me thinks maybe our best palan would be to just shoot for 2013 or 2014 and go all out with that in mind. If I knew that was the plan, I'd be Ok with a mediocre season this year. I know we could get a ton for Ellsbury, something good for Youk, Salty, Papi and mayeb someone to eat a good chunk of CC's deal and then get some key free agents (like a top starting pitcher and big right-handed bopper OF'er or 3Bman) to go with the kids we get in our firesale along with this: C/DH Lava &  C Swihart (2014 at th earliest) 1B AGon 2B Pedey SS Iggy & Bogaerts 3B Middlebrooks & Bogaerts/Cecchini LF Hassan & ?  CF Kalish & _? RF Sweeney &  ? DH ??? S1 Beckett S2 Lester S3 ??? (Matt Cain?) S4 Buchholtz S5 Lackey S6 Doubront/Ranaudo/Barnes R1 Bailey R2 Bard R3 Melancon R4 Aceves R5 Morales R6 Bowden and others
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Cain just signed a mega-contract with the Giants.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Hopefully Youk can pull it together. He has been such a worthy Redsox. We love rooting for that guy!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]One of the most despicable things on the forum this week was to pretend that you are a church going Christian and brag about going to Harvard Divinity School, complement Carnie on his signature line, and support Fidel Castro.  "Look at me Moonslav, I too studied Teilhardien in college, look at me". The forum has sunk to a new low and even Harness can put it back together again. Now we have trolls putting on fake white collars in order to falsely give them an air of credibility.
    Posted by 6k42lt913c[/QUOTE]
    '''i suppose you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Teilhard_de_Chardin. At least it's close. Immediate "ignore".
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : It's 6 games; period. Is he a little over the hill? Perhaps. So is MO.
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

    I agree. I have not written off Youk by any means. The guy has tremendous heart and drive. I am concerned about his increasing injury issues and the fact that he plays 3B hard. His steep drop off last year could easily have been injury related. I think if he stays healthy, he will have a nice year. Not as good as 2010, but better than 2011 projected to 600 PAs.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    anyone who actually believes this is a play off team is delusional, bordering on the certifiably mad...this team has more holes than a block of swiss cheese....

    This is basically the same team that had the best record for 4 out of 6 months last year... minus Papelbon, but also minus a lot of poor 2011 performance players as well.

    I can understand not thinking this team will seriously contend for a playoff spot, but I think saying that those who think this team is playoff bound are delusional is going a bit too far.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : I agree. I have not written off Youk by any means. The guy has tremendous heart and drive. I am concerned about his increasing injury issues and the fact that he plays 3B hard. His steep drop off last year could easily have been injury related. I think if he stays healthy, he will have a nice year. Not as good as 2010, but better than 2011 projected to 600 PAs.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely; IMO 100-140 games might be his near-prime limit now.

    I think the biggest reason for a decline in a player's numbers in their later yrs (35-40, not 40+) is not power & reflexes, but injuries, stamina, leg speed, & concentration; in any combination thereof, and in that order.

    Power is the last thing that goes (unless you're a pitcher).
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from futbal. Show futbal's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, with all due respect since I think very highly of your threads, I think you have to be all in with Bill James or not. If you are all in, you can't narrow the sample set to 4 of 6 months to make a point since the probability (statistics as you likely know is about making predictions within standardized error variances) of being right increases with more random data points. If you are not in with Bill James then sure, pick limited, non-random subsets of data, etc., to make points. Since reading your threads the last couple years I am still torn between the statistical and the anecdotal approaches. Statistically, this team is similar enough to last year that it would seem to project to about a third place finish over the full season. Anecdote approach could suggest worse ( end of last year beginning of this one) or beter ( your four great months observation). Baseball is such a complex game to analyze, which is why I enjoy your threads so much, at least you guys give it a shot! I think at the end of the day, I am still with the anecdotal approach; this team lacks a right handed power compliment to Agon and the clubhouse culture just seems odious.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, with all due respect since I think very highly of your threads, I think you have to be all in with Bill James or not. If you are all in, you can't narrow the sample set to 4 of 6 months to make a point since the probability (statistics as you likely know is about making predictions within standardized error variances) of being right increases with more random data points. If you are not in with Bill James then sure, pick limited, non-random subsets of data, etc., to make points. 

    You make a valid point. 4 months is a small sample size, even for a team as a whole, however, we finished just 1 game ouit of the playoffs and had the same record as the WS-winning Cardinals.

    We had over 80 starts by pitchers pitching while hurt or from our 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th starters. It's not hard to imagine a little better health (back to the norm), and a few more wins this year. 

    My position was that it is not "delusional" to think this team is playoff bound. It's also not "delusional" to think they are not. My argument was over the extreme choice of words.

    Back to the 4 month thing, I do think this club is capable of playing close to last year's May to August team, but for 5 or 6 months instead of just 4.

    Since reading your threads the last couple years I am still torn between the statistical and the anecdotal approaches. Statistically, this team is similar enough to last year that it would seem to project to about a third place finish over the full season. Anecdote approach could suggest worse ( end of last year beginning of this one) or beter ( your four great months observation). Baseball is such a complex game to analyze, which is why I enjoy your threads so much, at least you guys give it a shot! I think at the end of the day, I am still with the anecdotal approach; this team lacks a right handed power compliment to Agon and the clubhouse culture just seems odious.

    Depends how you view the anecdotal. One could easily see that replacing Lackey, Wake, Weiland, and Miller with Bard and Doubront could be a huge plus. One could just as well view it as "mehh"... nothing special.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Have you ever noticed that when things are going badly for the Sox, this forum is flooded with one loser troll after another inundating these threads with their worthless posts. They live for this. Can you imagine just how low life someone would have to be to find pleasure in that? They have to crawl up to reach spit on the ground. And they are everywhere today.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Have you ever noticed that when things are going badly for the Sox, this forum is flooded with one loser troll after another inundating these threads with their worthless posts. They live for this. Can you imagine just how low life someone would have to be to find pleasure in that? They have to crawl up to reach spit on the ground. And they are everywhere today.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Here, here. Specific analysis of specific plays or managerial moves is one thing -- and often stimulating -- but the kind of thing you are talking about is entirely another matter. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 6k42lt913c. Show 6k42lt913c's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    All good posters and real Red Sox fans above. Bump.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBINFL. Show TBINFL's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm waiting for the realistic posts.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : Your welcome....I will never give up on pike, and sometimes he leaves you no choice but to respond sometimes....I will just keep sending love and light his way, despite all the attempts on his part to make others feel as bad about themselves as he feels about his life...And he hardly has a monopoly on this forum with regard to that modus operandi...
    Posted by teilhardian[/QUOTE]Well, you're actually nobody here until you have ended up on pike's enemies list at least once, so bienvenue au carreau mon frere.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Have you ever noticed that when things are going badly for the Sox, this forum is flooded with one loser troll after another inundating these threads with their worthless posts. They live for this. Can you imagine just how low life someone would have to be to find pleasure in that? They have to crawl up to reach spit on the ground. And they are everywhere today.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Boom, pre-2004, almost all of Red Sox Nation was like this. It was like a favorite pastime to bash the GM, bash the manager, and bash the players. Maybe some of these guys still have those tendancies. Maybe it's newer fans that got spoiled with 2 rings and expects the same 1 team out of 30 to win every year.

    I try to just avoid the "sky is falling" threads.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : Boom, pre-2004, almost all of Red Sox Nation was like this. It was like a favorite pastime to bash the GM, bash the manager, and bash the players. Maybe some of these guys still have those tendancies. Maybe it's newer fans that got spoiled with 2 rings and expects the same 1 team out of 30 to win every year. I try to just avoid the "sky is falling" threads.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I've been a fan since 1967, and the only managers I've ever bashed were Zimmer and McNamara, the only GM I ever bashed was Gorman.
     

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