A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

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    [QUOTE]The DH spot is locked up this year with Ortiz now. Lavarnway is a catcher if he is going to play on the big club in 2012, short an injury to Ortiz. It also seems that we are short on quality RH bats also. Maybe even shorter than we were last year, when it was clearly a problem. We need a solid RH bat for the lineup. I'd be very surprised if Lavarnway isn't with the big club well before the all star break. And he will help solve that problem.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]I can't fault that logic. Also if Papi can keep hitting the way he's started out the year I don't think I'd want anyone else at DH. I would like to see our catcher not looking like he had a big hole in his bat though. I think Lavarnaway could solve that problem. And I really don't think his CERA would be any worse than the guys we currently have at the position.
     
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    [QUOTE]carnie  how are you sir?  4 lefties yes but that is because the team's core talents lie with them.  Nothing is worse than sticking some .300 obp, 15 homer player in the middle of all of that just for the sake of balancing the line-up.  That is how runners get stranded, rallies killed, and how you lose.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]Like I said I think you have a solid lineup there, especially against RHP. I might do this against LHP
    Ells
    Pedey
    Gonzo
    Lavarnaway
    Ortiz
    Ross
    Craw
    Provided Lavarnaway plays well enough to merit a call up. Craw 9th vs. LHP might merit a look as well as it would keep him and Ells together in the lineup, maximizing the torturing opposition pitchers factor.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    How about these stats for his last 2 years in college ( Lavarnway ):

    Was a semifinalist for the Johnny Bench Award and Golden Spikes Award as a junior at Yale in 2008. Also was a candidate for the Brooks Wallace National Player of the Year award and was named second team All-Ivy League and first team All-New England after leading the conference in homers (13), RBIs (42), walks (29), slugging percentage (.824) and on-base percentage (.541) while pacing the Bulldogs with a .398 batting average. ... Became the Ivy League's all-time leader with 33 career homers. ... Led the NCAA with a .467 (70-for-150) average and .873 slugging percentage as a sophomore.

    Lavarnway hasn't just been a good hitter for the past 5 years in a row. He has potentially been the best hitter in his league for the past 5 years in a row. 5 years in a row of tremendous performance. What does this guy have to do to get national attention as a top 100 prospect? 3 years in a row as offensive player of the year in the Redsox system. Some of the best power numbers ever posted as a catcher in the International league last year. 

    This guy should be with the big club within the next month or 2 or someone isn't thinking in Redsox management.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

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    [QUOTE]How about these stats for his last 2 years in college ( Lavarnway ): Was a semifinalist for the Johnny Bench Award and Golden Spikes Award as a junior at Yale in 2008. Also was a candidate for the Brooks Wallace National Player of the Year award and was named second team All-Ivy League and first team All-New England after leading the conference in homers (13), RBIs (42), walks (29), slugging percentage (.824) and on-base percentage (.541) while pacing the Bulldogs with a .398 batting average. ... Became the Ivy League's all-time leader with 33 career homers. ... Led the NCAA with a .467 (70-for-150) average and .873 slugging percentage as a sophomore. Lavarnway hasn't just been a good hitter for the past 5 years in a row. He has potentially been the best hitter in his league for the past 5 years in a row. 5 years in a row of tremendous performance. What does this guy have to do to get national attention as a top 100 prospect? 3 years in a row as offensive player of the year in the Redsox system. Some of the best power numbers ever posted as a catcher in the International league last year.  This guy should be with the big club within the next month or 2 or someone isn't thinking in Redsox management.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]He may never be a top 100 prospect, since there seems to be some bias against the Red Sox (IMHO). I do think he could be starting in the show right now and doing a better job than the guys the Sox have catching now.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : Like I said I think you have a solid lineup there, especially against RHP. I might do this against LHP Ells Pedey Gonzo Lavarnaway Ortiz Ross Craw Provided Lavarnaway plays well enough to merit a call up. Craw 9th vs. LHP might merit a look as well as it would keep him and Ells together in the lineup, maximizing the torturing opposition pitchers factor.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]


    That is good and based on what moon says about Craw vs. LHP than 9th is perfect as it keeps him and Elles back to back either situation.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : That is good and based on what moon says about Craw vs. LHP than 9th is perfect as it keeps him and Elles back to back either situation.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]That's exactly right I think. With the two speed guys together the pitcher (in the ideal situation) is thinking less about Pedey, Gonzo etc. than the two burners who are on base. Also double steals make the RBIs come easier.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I can't fault that logic. Also if Papi can keep hitting the way he's started out the year I don't think I'd want anyone else at DH. I would like to see our catcher not looking like he had a big hole in his bat though. I think Lavarnaway could solve that problem. And I really don't think his CERA would be any worse than the guys we currently have at the position.

    I've been saying this all winter. People were sticking up for Salty's "experience" and "defense" based on his decent CS%, but let's face it, the guy stunk on defense and stunk on getting the most out of the staff. Yes, lava could be worse in his first year, but worse than horrible can't be that much of a drop off. Lava's bat would more than make up for it. Also, lava could DH vs some tough lefties or when Papi needs a rest.

    ...I might do this against LHP
    Ells
    Pedey
    Gonzo
    Lavarnaway
    Ortiz
    Ross
    Craw
    Provided Lavarnaway plays well enough to merit a call up. Craw 9th vs. LHP might merit a look as well as it would keep him and Ells together in the lineup, maximizing the torturing opposition pitchers factor.

    You forgot Youk and Aviles. I assume you'd put Youk 5th unless he stays in his funk, and Aviles 8th.

    If Lava isn't here, I'd think about this vs LHPs when CC returns:
    1) Ells
    2) Aviles/Punto (Maybe even Ross)
    3) Pedey
    4) AGon
    5) Youk (Papi if Youk stays cold)
    6) Papi
    7) Ross
    8) Shopp
    9) CC (DMac would be better vs most LHPs)
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Lavarnway hasn't just been a good hitter for the past 5 years in a row. He has potentially been the best hitter in his league for the past 5 years in a row. 5 years in a row of tremendous performance. What does this guy have to do to get national attention as a top 100 prospect? 3 years in a row as offensive player of the year in the Redsox system. Some of the best power numbers ever posted as a catcher in the International league last year. 

    This guy should be with the big club within the next month or 2 or someone isn't thinking in Redsox management.

    Boom, you know I am a huge Lava fan and wanted him on the big club since day 1, but I think the history of the minor leagues is full of players who hit a lot of HRs but just can't cut it in the bigs, due maybe to a hole in their swing. I'm not saying Lava is one of those guys, but the people who make the top 100 lists do not go by stats alone.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : That is good and based on what moon says about Craw vs. LHP than 9th is perfect as it keeps him and Elles back to back either situation.
    Posted by BurritoT
    That's exactly right I think. With the two speed guys together the pitcher (in the ideal situation) is thinking less about Pedey, Gonzo etc. than the two burners who are on base. Also double steals make the RBIs come easier.

    CC 9th and Ells 1st vs LHPs makes too much sense. It baffled me that Tito never tried it once last year vs a tough lefty.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]How about these stats for his last 2 years in college ( Lavarnway ): Was a semifinalist for the Johnny Bench Award and Golden Spikes Award as a junior at Yale in 2008. Also was a candidate for the Brooks Wallace National Player of the Year award and was named second team All-Ivy League and first team All-New England after leading the conference in homers (13), RBIs (42), walks (29), slugging percentage (.824) and on-base percentage (.541) while pacing the Bulldogs with a .398 batting average. ... Became the Ivy League's all-time leader with 33 career homers. ... Led the NCAA with a .467 (70-for-150) average and .873 slugging percentage as a sophomore. Lavarnway hasn't just been a good hitter for the past 5 years in a row. He has potentially been the best hitter in his league for the past 5 years in a row. 5 years in a row of tremendous performance. What does this guy have to do to get national attention as a top 100 prospect? 3 years in a row as offensive player of the year in the Redsox system. Some of the best power numbers ever posted as a catcher in the International league last year.  This guy should be with the big club within the next month or 2 or someone isn't thinking in Redsox management.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    To be precise, in 2009 Ryan Lavarnway ranked 11th in OPS in the South Atlantic League, in 2010 10th in OPS in the Carolina League, and in 2011 19th in OPS in the Eastern League and third in OPS in the International League. In 2008 Lavarnway did not have enough at-bats to qualify for the rankings in the New York-Pennsylvania League, where he posted a pedestrian OPS of .683.:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lavarn001rya

    And here are the Ivy League statistical rankings for 2008:

    http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/bsb/2007-08/files/stats/lgsumm.htm#form.lgt

    ... and for 2007:

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/seasons/review.asp?Y=2007&L=Ivy

    http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20090929&content_id=7224076&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/6259/red-sox-award-top-minor-league-players

    http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20110917&content_id=24829940&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2011/09/2011-soxprospectscom-players-of-year.html
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : To be precise, in 2009 Ryan Lavarnway ranked 11th in OPS in the South Atlantic League, in 2010 10th in OPS in the Carolina League, and in 2011 19th in OPS in the Eastern League and third in OPS in the International League. In 2008 Lavarnway did not have enough at-bats to qualify for the rankings in the New York-Pennsylvania League, where he posted a pedestrian OPS of .683: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lavarn001rya http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20090929&content_id=7224076&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/6259/red-sox-award-top-minor-league-players http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20110917&content_id=24829940&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos http://news.soxprospects.com/2011/09/2011-soxprospectscom-players-of-year.html
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    You are right, but maybe if you take the last 5 years combined, he may be #1.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    For all the nay sayers, Lavarnway has consistently hit at every significant level he has played in for the past 5 years in a row. Redsox offensive player of the year in the farm 3 years in a row. Between 21 and 34 HR each of the past 3 years at different levels of the minors and his pace has accelerated. 34 HR last year in 474 official AB. 

    Agreed moon, that there is more to scouting than just numbers. If it were offensive numbers only Daniel Nava would be our left fielder right now. With that said, we are comparing Lavarnway to Salty who was not even in the running for a mlb slot on the Rangers before the trade and Shoppach who hit under .200 last year. Lavarnway is very likely to hit better than both of these guys IMO.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : To be precise, in 2009 Ryan Lavarnway ranked 11th in OPS in the South Atlantic League, in 2010 10th in OPS in the Carolina League, and in 2011 19th in OPS in the Eastern League and third in OPS in the International League. In 2008 Lavarnway did not have enough at-bats to qualify for the rankings in the New York-Pennsylvania League, where he posted a pedestrian OPS of .683: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lavarn001rya http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20090929&content_id=7224076&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/6259/red-sox-award-top-minor-league-players http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20110917&content_id=24829940&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos http://news.soxprospects.com/2011/09/2011-soxprospectscom-players-of-year.html
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Your stats are showing that he was in the running each year. If there are hundreds of players and he is consistently in the top 20, doesn't that indicate that he is one of the top players every year. He's been extremely consistent.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Agreed moon, that there is more to scouting than just numbers. If it were offensive numbers only Daniel Nava would be our left fielder right now. With that said, we are comparing Lavarnway to Salty who was not even in the running for a mlb slot on the Rangers before the trade and Shoppach who hit under .200 last year. Lavarnway is very likely to hit better than both of these guys IMO.



    Preaching to the choir, my man.

    Did you notice Bobby V flipped DMac and Ross from LF to RF. I had wondered why they ever put DMac in Rf to start with. Maybe the park had something to do with it.

    It's also good to see Bobby V go with a strict catcher L/R platoon rather than the private caddy system by Tito.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Agreed moon, that there is more to scouting than just numbers. If it were offensive numbers only Daniel Nava would be our left fielder right now. With that said, we are comparing Lavarnway to Salty who was not even in the running for a mlb slot on the Rangers before the trade and Shoppach who hit under .200 last year. Lavarnway is very likely to hit better than both of these guys IMO. Preaching to the choir, my man. Did you notice Bobby V flipped DMac and Ross from LF to RF. I had wondered why they ever put DMac in Rf to start with. Maybe the park had something to do with it. It's also good to see Bobby V go with a strict catcher L/R platoon rather than the private caddy system by Tito.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    That could explain why Jesus Montero has consistently been ranked far ahead of Ryan Lavarnway.

    Lavarnway is an intriguing prospect, but the Yale product probably falls short of elite status.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : That could explain why Jesus Montero has consistently been ranked far ahead of Ryan Lavarnway. Lavarnway is an intriguing prospect, but the Yale product probably falls short of elite status.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]
    Elite performer works. "Elite prospect" is an oxymoron.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : Elite performer works. "Elite prospect" is an oxymoron.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]
    If prospects represent a class, elite prospects represent a subclass of that class.

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/9/2785875/prospect-analysis-elite-prospects-from-2007

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/38489/the-sec-and-elite-prospects
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Agreed Hill that Montero is more highly rated, due in large part to his age difference, but the difference between the two "prospects" seems to be declining for talent evaluators with more scouts like Keith Law thinking Lavarnway is more likely to stick at catcher now. Lavarnway has trended up while, except for his mlb call up last year, Montero has trended down some recently. The NY media hype might also have something to do with his ratings I would think. 

    I'm not saying Lavarnway is the better prospect but I am saying the difference between the 2 is a lot closer than many think IMO. Lavarnway has adjusted well at every level and consistently put up great numbers every year. And he is trending up. He deserves elite status at this point IMO, after 34 HR in 474 AB last year in AAA ball and the majors, as a catcher/DH.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Agreed Hill that Montero is more highly rated, due in large part to his age difference, but the difference between the two "prospects" seems to be declining for talent evaluators with more scouts like Keith Law thinking Lavarnway is more likely to stick at catcher now. Lavarnway has trended up while, except for his mlb call up last year, Montero has trended down some recently. The NY media hype might also have something to do with his ratings I would think.  I'm not saying Lavarnway is the better prospect but I am saying the difference between the 2 is a lot closer than many think IMO. Lavarnway has adjusted well at every level and consistently put up great numbers every year. And he is trending up. He deserves elite status at this point IMO, after 34 HR in 474 AB last year in AAA ball and the majors, as a catcher/DH.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Ryan Lavarnway's stock certainly received a boost from his 34 homeruns in 2011 (including 14 at Double A) while the stock of Jesus Montero plateaued despite his impressive 18-game MLB call-up.

    The New York media hype regarding Montero's catching abilities (or lack thereof) probably hurt Montero's standing. The Mariners remain optimistic that Montero will develop into a full-time catcher (forming a formidable battery with Felix Hernandez, who grew up 11 miles away from Montero in Venezuela).

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2017969672_some_observations_now_that_the.html

    I'm no expert, so I look to the consensus among those who are paid for their opinions. Entering this season, MLB.com, Keith Law, John Sickels, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and The Scouting Book ranked Montero as high as fourth and as low as 13th among all prospects. Lavarnway went unranked by three of the services and 92nd, 97th and 98th by the other three.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : If prospects represent a class, elite prospects represent a subclass of that class. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/9/2785875/prospect-analysis-elite-prospects-from-2007 http://www.eliteprospects.com/ http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/38489/the-sec-and-elite-prospects
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]
    I am expressing an opinion based on the idea that in an activity where the only performance that counts is in the majors the term "elite" seems misplaced. We have elite restaurants, universities, players, neighborhoods, and so on, all so classified because they have arrived at that status in competition with others "at the top of their games." For me, the term "elite" has the wrong connotations for prospects, regardless of how others use the nomenclature. In any event, the term has now become a pop buzzword. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    elitist
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Bill James projected Lava at:

    (231 PAs)

    .275/.351/.527/.878
    HRs 13
    RBI  41

    Projected to 693 PAs:
    .275  39  123

    I'm not saying I agree, but it appears Bill James believes Lava is better than a 90 something rating.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It also seems that we are short on quality RH bats also.

    Nahhhhhhhhhhh! Did it take you years to figure that out....................
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It's nice that the Rays and Yanks have not had a great start, and we are only 2 games back after the 2-5 start.

    The sample size is still too small to make any definitive judgements, but I was glad to see Beckett look good. If you called Sweeney part of our bench (debateable), our bench has been pretty darn good:
    Sweeney  1.097
    Shoppach 1.045
    N Punto      .864
    D Mac         .583 

    I'm sure we'll start hearing about bunching all our runs in too few games pretty soon, and our median runs total is 3, but I think we will see more consistency this year in our offense.

    Bobby V has mixed things up pretty well. Nobody has batted in the same slot all 7 games. Nobody has batted in the same slot every game they played either.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    m
     
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