A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Good to see you, summer. My guess is SF woulkd take Crawford for Zito and Huff. 
    Posted by moonslav59


    Thanks, moon. Back atcha, my friend.

    I would like that deal very much.

    But any deal we make will be more with an eye towards 2013, I think. No rentals for a playoff run this time.  Sad to say.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    It´s beginning to look like time to sell.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Yes, it is time to sell.

    No blue light specials on the midway here, though.

    And JH will certainly have to eat some salaries, which he hates to do.

    Just on a personal note, I wonder if my trust in Theo was misplaced. At least for the last two years.  He saddled us with some bad deals - Lackey, Crawford, Beckett.  I wonder if his ambition blinded him, or (fill in the blank). Or if I would make the same mistakes.

    Just thinking out loud. Being pensive about these Red Sox this year, but confident that the team can be built again for 2014, maybe 2013. Who knows?

    As usual, i digress.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    roy....the two moves didnt necessarily have to go together...theo coveted Agon...if he wanted him that badly, he wouldve gotten regardless of beltre move...i like middlebrooks a lot but beltre has been an allstar 3b since he was with us...moving youk to 3b and letting beltre walk was a mistake
    Posted by georom4

    I personally agree with this, as controversial as it was at the time. A big part of our problem still is left side defense. The Agon deal wasn't as obvious as it looked to many people here and Rizzo was a big part of that decision. He stumbled last year in the majors but his minor league numbers have been off the charts and imagine where we would be right now with Middlebrooks and Rizzo for the future lineup. He's still only 22 years old and a major bopper with a solid defense:


    Beltre is still a major RH slugger with great defense who was signable for less money, less years at a more important position than Adrian Gonzalez. Everyone was all over me at the time on that position but it still looks to me like Beltre was the better move.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III



    I'm sorry guys and although I'm a sox-lover forever, I'm throwing in the white towel.

    I never thought I'd ever see it, but me and the mrs. get bored watching the games...can you believe it?  And to top it off, we're booked to visit Fenway in sept. for the yankee series.  Well, it'll be nice seeing the old place I haven't seen in years and the wife never has.

    It's time to sell, sell, sell...flush the toilet, calonic lavage....take your choice.

    I wonder if Theo intentionally screwed over ownership before he left?

    And yes, Henry HAS TO eat at least Crawford's salary.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Beltre was 5 years and $80 mil. Adrian Gonzalez was 7 years and $154 mil. Major cost savings plus keeping all those prospects and Beltre's RH bat is not slowing down at all.

    Rizzo was projectable even back then and Kelly and Fuentes are not done for their careers yet. Rizzo looks like a terrific young player at still only 22. He's comparable to Middlebrooks in value right now.

    We could always trade any of these guys but the best deal was Beltre. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    If AGon had 30 homers right now I would not have to listen to all this hindsight bologna.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    If AGon had 30 homers right now I would not have to listen to all this hindsight bologna.
    Posted by EnchiladaT


    It was actually foresight at the time Burrito...right down to which prospect was the guy we would regret trading. We had lots of discussions on this and very few were pro Beltre. Very few.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Melvin made it clear yesterday that Greinke was moving and then today he gets traded. There was little doubt that deal was happening before the deadline.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I personally agree with this, as controversial as it was at the time. A big part of our problem still is left side defense. The Agon deal wasn't as obvious as it looked to many people here and Rizzo was a big part of that decision. He stumbled last year in the majors but his minor league numbers have been off the charts and imagine where we would be right now with Middlebrooks and Rizzo for the future lineup. He's still only 22 years old and a major bopper with a solid defense: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B Beltre is still a major RH slugger with great defense who was signable for less money, less years at a more important position than Adrian Gonzalez. Everyone was all over me at the time on that position but it still looks to me like Beltre was the better move.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    Not "everyone," Boom. I was on your side. Call the press!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : It was actually foresight at the time Burrito...right down to which prospect was the guy we would regret trading. We had lots of discussions on this and very few were pro Beltre. Very few.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    Okay I won't argue that long ago, I don't know what you specifically wrote then. Beltre was in a contract year and had not hit for the power in Seattle. Personally I was all for putting Youk at third-base.

    Loved AGon, still do. Something is certainly wrong though. He should be around 30 homers without any problem.



     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

     It's time to start looking at 2013, and the impact of the Astros moving to the AL. Since there will be inter-league play everyday, it also means more total inter-league games. It follows that David Ortiz is one of the least valuable members of the team
    because of the burden he places on NL line-up construction. Letting him finish up this season and going out in style is one option, trading him to a contender like Baltimore (Thome will flame out), Oakland or Detroit is a real possibility. That opens up a natural spot for Lava, which puts Shoppach in motion too. Might as well bring up Iggy to see first hand what you've got, and clearing out Sweeney and Nava makes sense  as well. Cody Ross is a valuable chip, RH clutch power bat for any of the contenders should bring some decent prospects. The next few days will interesting indeed.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Middlebrooks. Show Middlebrooks's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

     it's time to think about 2013, and with the Astros moving to the AL, more inter-league games will be played, which makes David Ortiz and his one way status the odd man out in the new alignment. Time to send him to Baltimore, Detroit or Oakland. Bring up Lava and Iggy, trade Shoppach, Ross, Nava and Sweeney.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I have said the same several times. We can be cautios sellers and still leave the window open for this year, but set ourselves up nicely for next year by:
    1) Getting under the luxury limit this year, so we can go over next year or 2014.
    2) Stockpile prospects for a possible large winter deal-avoid big FA pitcher signings.

    2012 window left open-sell:
    Dice-K
    Shopp
    Cook (I´d look to extend first)
    Padilla (I´d look to extend first)
    Podsednick 
    Sweeney (FA after 2013)
    Punto (FA after 2013)
    R Hill (after 2013)
    Albers (after 2014)
    Atchison (FA after 2016, but too probably old to make it that long)
    Salty (FA after 2013)

    Close window for 2012:
    Ross
    Ortiz
    Ellsbury (FA after 2013)
    Lester (Club option for 2014)

    Try hard to dump salary ASAP:
    Crawford
    Beckett? (I doubt we get return worth what he is worth to us, so this is unlikely.)
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Not "everyone," Boom. I was on your side. Call the press!
    Posted by expitch


    You were not even here December 6th, 2010:


    I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you were on some other forum advocating that position.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    If AGon had 30 homers right now I would not have to listen to all this hindsight bologna.
    Posted by EnchiladaT


    I think Adrian Gonzalez is a class act and a great player. That was not it. It was that the Beltre option was better after all factors were considered IMO. When Theo goes after someone he seems single minded in his focus, ergo all the convoluted 3 team deals which fell through at the winter meeting...etc. The overbids for Crawford and Matsuzaka. He was great with the farm ...or was it Sawdaye all along?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I think Adrian Gonzalez is a class act and a great player. That was not it. It was that the Beltre option was better after all factors were considered IMO. When Theo goes after someone he seems single minded in his focus, ergo all the convoluted 3 team deals which fell through at the winter meeting...etc. The overbids for Crawford and Matsuzaka. He was great with the farm ...or was it Sawdaye all along?
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    boom, in all fairness, you were for the AGon trade before you were against it.

    You clearly were against letting Beltre walk for AGon.

    I was totally against moving Youk to 3B at this late stage of his career as he was showing signs of fragility. However, the length of Beltre's deal was very troubling to me. Almost everyone wanted here Beltre for 2 years, so I think we should wait until Beltre's contract runs out, before we judge too harshly.

    Once we signed AGon, I was in a tiny minority of posters who said we should trade Youk while "his value was high", even if we didn't re-sign Beltre. Youk had just come off his 7th straight OPS increase season. We could have got a lot for him, and the money saved on his contract could have allowed us to keep Beltre even for 3-4 years not 2. The 5th byear was and still is insane. I said this at the time, but was very cautious about Beltre's 3rd and 4th contract years (as I was towards VMart's as well.)

    The choice was probably this:
    1B Youk/3B Beltre
    1B AGon/3b Youk
    1B AGon/3B Beltre (trade Youk or let Papi walk and use Youk at DH)

    Had we signed Beltre and not traded for AGon, I' m not sure we would be much better off right now:
    1) Beltre missed time last year to injury while AGon played very well.
    2) Where would Middlebrooks be right now? (Traded for below his value now that he was given a shot in the bigs that he´d never have gotten had Beltre been here.)
    3) Beltre is 33 now and still has 3 more years on his deal. His OPS is currently 50 points lower than 2010. His OBP with Texas is 35 points lower than 2010...just as many of us projected.
    4) Beltre had 79 extra base hits for us in 2010. He had 65 in 2011. He's on pace for about 67 this year.
    5) Beltre's fielding is superb. No doubt.

    I'd love him on this team, but unless we dealt Youk, I don' t think it would have worked. I couldn't see Theo dealing Youk "The Greek God of Walks" at the high point of his career.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    #bump, Hate to see a good thread burried by self-absorbant types
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : boom, in all fairness, you were for the AGon trade before you were against it. You clearly were against letting Beltre walk for AGon. I was totally against moving Youk to 3B at this late stage of his career as he was showing signs of fragility. However, the length of Beltre's deal was very troubling to me. Almost everyone wanted here Beltre for 2 years, so I think we should wait until Beltre's contract runs out, before we judge too harshly. Once we signed AGon, I was in a tiny minority of posters who said we should trade Youk while "his value was high", even if we didn't re-sign Beltre. Youk had just come off his 7th straight OPS increase season. We could have got a lot for him, and the money saved on his contract could have allowed us to keep Beltre even for 3-4 years not 2. The 5th byear was and still is insane. I said this at the time, but was very cautious about Beltre's 3rd and 4th contract years (as I was towards VMart's as well.) The choice was probably this: 1B Youk/3B Beltre 1B AGon/3b Youk 1B AGon/3B Beltre (trade Youk or let Papi walk and use Youk at DH) Had we signed Beltre and not traded for AGon, I' m not sure we would be much better off right now: 1) Beltre missed time last year to injury while AGon played very well. 2) Where would Middlebrooks be right now? (Traded for below his value now that he was given a shot in the bigs that he´d never have gotten had Beltre been here.) 3) Beltre is 33 now and still has 3 more years on his deal. His OPS is currently 50 points lower than 2010. His OBP with Texas is 35 points lower than 2010...just as many of us projected. 4) Beltre had 79 extra base hits for us in 2010. He had 65 in 2011. He's on pace for about 67 this year. 5) Beltre's fielding is superb. No doubt. I'd love him on this team, but unless we dealt Youk, I don' t think it would have worked. I couldn't see Theo dealing Youk "The Greek God of Walks" at the high point of his career.
    Posted by moonslav59

    I have always thought highly of Adrian Gonzalez and wanted him here. Who didn't want Agon here? My point was that when it all came down and it was Adrian Beltre OR Adrian Gonzalez I was one of the primary advocates for the Beltre option and specifically cited Rizzo as the piece in that trade we would regret losing. When you make a statement like that you better be sure when you make it because the above is absolutely true. You and I had at least 10 posts back and forth on it and you were pro Gonzalez on that deal. You did cite some issues with Youk at 3rd but you were pro Gonzalez on that deal when it happened. 

    If I have to go back and find those posts I will. I'm tired of the grief I sometimes get here when I'm the guy who is getting it right as often as anyone. Yes, that is what I think. I can prove it. I don't get it right every time of course and I put my neck out there with lots of projections but there is no doubt who was pro Beltre at the time of that deal. As is often the case, no one wanted to hear it then either. But it looks like that was the better option. 

    It seems when anyone here gets something potentially wrong they have selective memory. I think it's probably not intentional for most of us. I do not think I'm doing that in this instance. It was a major discussion for a long time and I remember it well.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    #bump, Hate to see a good thread burried by self-absorbant types
    Posted by EnchiladaT


    Do you also hate when people misquote you Burrito? Do you remember the conversation? I certainly do. When I have the time Sunday I'm actually going to go back and prove it. I'm really tired of this.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Ben should obviously turn his attention to selling mode.  It is his job to find a market for Beckett.  There are still teams looking to make a deep playoff run that could slide him into their 3-4 spot in the rotation.  He has proven himself a big game/playoff type pitcher when he cares.  He longer does here, but he would somewhere else because that is the type of stubborn guy he is.  It is BC's job to find that market for him in the next 4 days.  Dodgers? Nationals? Rangers? Giants?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Do you also hate when people misquote you Burrito? Do you remember the conversation? I certainly do. When I have the time Sunday I'm actually going to go back and prove it. I'm really tired of this.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    I was talking about posters who start 5+thread a day, unsure what you want to fact check
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    We know it happened on December 6th, 2010. Neither Moon or I have ever been deleted. It should be pretty easy to find I would hope. It's probably on one of the archived "Realistic" threads. As I mentioned, I'm really tired of the selective memory I see here when people get their projections wrong. In this case the jury is not out still but it sure doesn't look like it was as clear cut as most people were saying here at that time and I got tremendous grief for my position back then also. A deciding factor might be which prospects we ended up getting for Beltre, which I haven't researched. 

    BTW, I've started maybe 1-2 threads in the past 6 months.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III


    Anyone care to comment on Expitch's claim above, when he wasn't even freaking here on December 6th, 2010? And people want to comment on my post but let him get away scott free with that one? Where is the logic and the fairness in these discussions on that issue? It really seems that when people agree with someone's position, they let that guy they agree with get away with stuff which is clearly BS. It happens quite often.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Man I said I would not go bsck and try and prove you wrong - I have ZERO idea what you said b4. I was basically saying "okay so you wanted Beltre..."

    Gee wiz I was not accusing you of anything
     
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