A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I vaguely remember Napoli is a FA soon. Is it next winter? It would seem that he is getting ready for a payday. I'd have no problem with him as our catcher either.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Would you rather pay Napoli $15 mil or Papi $15 mil? See what I mean about the whole Papi issue? We can slot someone at DH who is cheap but a good hitter. Generally teams do not spend that much on a DH. We could rotate a Napoli and Lavarnway at catcher and DH, with a reserve OF also at times. Keeping everyone fresh.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Obviously with a good LH hitting catcher option also. Where do we need depth probably...at catcher? Keeping guys fresh and rested. Preparing for injuries, even of the dinged up variety. Those guys take a pounding. I think it could be a breakthrough idea with some combinations of players. For example, Napoli and Lavarnway both could serve a good role as DH. Similar to what Victor did. Posada did. If you have a catcher who can really hit, it can affect the DH situation. Creating opportuities which can help the team. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Yes, Napoli is a FA this winter, but other than 2011 has been a disater in the CERA realm. LAA chise to start one of the worst hitters in MLb the last 5-6 years (Mathis) instead of Napoli. I think it was the main reason they traded Mike (Huge CERA disparities between Mathis and Napoli). Career: -19.1 Rtot (-5 per year) He has not caught more than 66 games or started more than 60 since 2009. I do like the fact that he hits RH'd, has power, but does not have huge disparity vs L/R (.890/.849). It would work out nicely with Salty or Lava. They would start at catcher vs RHPs, and Napoli could catch vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs. We could rotate the DH position vs LHPs between several players to help keep them fresher and maybe healthier.
    Posted by moonslav59


    He was a monster all around in 2011. Best catcher in baseball maybe but this year he is hitting .226. Not worth $15 mil for sure. On to the next plan!

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    The FA market is getting ugly. Is this what we have to look forward to?


    Anibel Sanchez looks like one of the more attractive targets!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    The FA market is getting ugly. Is this what we have to look forward to? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html Anibel Sanchez looks like one of the more attractive targets!
    Posted by RedsoxProspects


    Although hes got shelled since getting traded, Ive been saying his name as a target this winter for a couple months now...Hes only a 2-3 type and we really have what we need in-house for next year, barring a  trade, with Morales, Tazawa, Mortenson that could all battle for a spot to go with Buch, Lester, lackey and beckett...maybe even a late year call-up for Barnes...
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    The FA market is getting ugly. Is this what we have to look forward to? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html Anibel Sanchez looks like one of the more attractive targets!
    Posted by RedsoxProspects

    Very very sad looking:

    Josh Hamiltom is 32 and will be way overpaid and for way too long.
    Napoli is 31 and does not field the position well or help the staff.
    Suzuki is 39...nuff said.
    Maybe Swisher or Ross can bridge to Bradley & Brentz, but they will want more than one year.

    We don't need any more Aaron Cook type starters, but getting top starters via Free Agency is way too costly and past track records are not good.
    Dempster is 36.
    Kuroda 38.
    Lohse 34.
    Lewis 33.
    Lowe 40.
    Wang 33.

    To expensive?
    Greinke 28.
    Peavy 31

    Possibilities?
    Sanchez  29
    McCarthy 29
    E Jackson 29
    Marcum 31

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Agreed on the possibilities Moon. I'm not sure about McCarthy but he has done well this year. It seems that FA is less and less an option going forward, as are overslot signings. We are going to have to develop our own ( for the most part ). I think the league finally figured out how to achieve parity. Imagine the Yankees making the playoffs only 1 out of 3 years. It could happen going forward and us even less. The Yanks still have an incredible cash cow with the new stadium. They are still going to be able to snap up any free agent they want. They may even take on Greinke, with the depression issues. Why not. The cash is rolling in like  crazy.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Agreed on the possibilities Moon. I'm not sure about McCarthy but he has done well this year. It seems that FA is less and less an option going forward, as are overslot signings. We are going to have to develop our own ( for the most part ). I think the league finally figured out how to achieve parity. Imagine the Yankees making the playoffs only 1 out of 3 years. It could happen going forward and us even less. The Yanks still have an incredible cash cow with the new stadium. They are still going to be able to snap up any free agent they want. They may even take on Greinke, with the depression issues. Why not. The cash is rolling in like  crazy.

    Great points. I'm not sure I believe all the Yankee talk of austerity.

    With budget contstraints, I think our best chance to fill our need for an ace-type starter and/or a RH'd clean-up hitter is to find a diamond in the rough FA (like perhaps McCarthy or Sanchez at SP and a Cody Ross type who can field our RF well) or via trade.

    Our biggest strength seems to be young prospects on the rise. Our stockpiling of draft picks the last 2-3 years is starting to make its mark. I'd hate to trade guys like Bradley or Barnes, but to get talent, we'll have to give talent.

    Some areas of duplication:

    Catcher: The Salty debate has been lively on this thread, but if we decide to go with him in hopes he can improve in certain areas (OBP, K-rate, and CS rate), a guy like Lavarnway could be a big part of a package for a quality player. Many many teams are in great need for catcher offense. 17 teams have a catcher BA of .240 or below (8 below .225). Alternatively, there may be a GM or two out there who loves Salty. We could trade salty as part of a larger package, or get a good prospect or two for Salty and flip them along with some of our own for a top starter or RF clean-up hitter who hits RH'd. We also have #7 prospect, Swihart, to dangle in trade or to stay in the wings if we deal Salty or Lava.

    Short Stop: Aviles is not going to bring us much in trade. My position is that he'd make a nice utility guy going forward, but I'm also OK with him playing semi-FT SS next year, if we have to trade Iggy. I'm not convinced Ciriaco (age 27) is the man, but he should get a long look the rest of the way. Trading Iggy, Ciriaco, or one of our many other SS prospects could be part of a larger package as well. We are overloaded with SS prospects, but some will likely be moved to 3B, 2B or OF.
    1) Bogaerts  19
    5) Iglesias     22
    10) Marrero  21 (Can't be traded for 1 year)
    19) Vinicio    19
    23) Tzu-Wei Lin  18

    Third Base: Middlebrooks looks like a rock, so we do have some other prospects that could be involved in a trade to upgrade at SP, RF (clean-up) or elsewhere:
    1) Bogaerts is likely a better 3Bman than SS.
    9) Cecchini  21
    25) Vitek      23
    27) Gomez  27 (1B)
    41) Almanzar 21 (1B)

    Outfield: With Ellsbury likely walking after 2013, and Crawford struggling to make his mark, we have OF needs for 2013 (replace Ross) and beyond, however, we could look to find a solid clean-up hitter to play RF, or CF if we deal Ellsbury this winter, or LF if we can find a taker for CC and most of his contract.

    MLB OF'ers under team control for 2013 or beyond:
    Crawford signed to 2017.
    Ellsbury under control through 2013.
    Sweeney under team control through 2013.
    Ryan Kalish is pre-arb.

    Prospects:
    3) Bradley   22 (Could really be our #1 prospect)
    6) Brentz     23
    11) Jacobs  23
    21) de la Cruz 20
    29) Linares      27 (Could be on the ML roster next year)
    35) Lin              25
    36) Hassan      24
    37) Hazelbaker 24
    46) Ramos
    47) Jerez
    54) Perkins

    Dealing OF prospects as part of a package for a more "sure bet" experienced young OF'er could be an option. Trading Ellsbury this winter has been overly discussed already. Trading Sweeney could happen, but he'd make a nice 4th OF'er/defensive replacement until one of our prospects proves worthy.

    Starting Pitchers: We need an ace-type starter. We have 3 starters who could be nice #2's or 3's (Lester & Beckett under team control through 2014,& Buchholtz to 2016). We have Lackey returning who could surprise us, but is likely a #4-5 type to 2015. We have Morales, who shows a lot of promise, but not as a #1. We have Doubront, who could make a nice #4-5 type, but we need a number one. We may end up dealing Beckett, but that would even raise the need for a number 1 by taking away our #2/3 guy. We could deal Doubront as part of a package for a better starter. We could package a few pitching prospects for a better one. Guys like Miller, Mortensen, Stewart,Tazawa, and Carpenter can start.

    Some teams are in great need of #4 type starters. 

    I'm not high on any Sox pitching prospects except Barnes, so I'm willing to deal to improve. Pitching prospects:
    2) Barnes   22
    8) Owens   20
    12) Tazawa 26
    13) Ranaudo 22
    14) Britton    23
    15) Workman 23
    16) Wilson     26
    17) Pimentall 22
    18) Johnson 21
    20) Light       20
    24) Buttrey  19 

    Blocked Prospects:
    22) 1B Travis Shaw  22
    26) 2B Sean Coyle   20

    There are countless options this winter. A lot depends on the Papi decision, but it is likely we get at least 1 FA, and make one big trade.









     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Lavarnway just won International League defensive catcher of the year, voted on by the managers of each team. Maybe there is some bias there, due in part from his hitting, but the kid certainly has the respect of that league, one of the toughest in minor league ball. Maybe the absolute toughest in minor league ball.

    We have the nucleaus of what was thought to be a championship level team. I think we need to keep riding this train but I wish we had dumped some short term talent for prospects at the break. The new CBA has changed our world. WE NEED solid prospects coming up and contributing because the FA market stinks, no one wants to trade great young pitching. The international market is now less money dominated and overslot signings are effectively gone. Our competitive position long term is slightly above the Pittsburghs, Houstons of the world, the Milwaukees, but it is not night and day like it used to be. OUR WORLD HAS CHANGED AND WE BETTER WAKE UP AND FACE IT.

    For real. Think about it. We could absolutely be the Redsox of the 1950s again for extended periods unless we manage our resources more prudently. When we have opportunities to acquire young talent for a short term talent rental in a year we are probably not going to make the playoffs we should do it. We could have traded a few players like Salty, Shoppach, some of our relievers at the break ...etc. and not hurt our play off chances much at all. We really might have been just as well off with a Mortensen rather than a Padilla, a Lavarnway rather than a Shoppach or Salty. We are blowing it. Slowly blowing it. It seems minor now but over time it is the competitive edge going forward for us.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I want to win, and be in a position to win every year. Now is a good time to break some guys like Linares, Lavarnway, Ciriaco, maybe even Gomez at DH some into the major league lineup, so that they can be better player options in 2013. Maybe only one of them make it. I'd rather them learn on the job now rather than throw them out there next summer when our chances of winning are better.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Lavarnway just won International League defensive catcher of the year, voted on by the managers of each team. Maybe there is some bias there, due in part from his hitting, but the kid certainly has the respect of that league, one of the toughest in minor league ball. Maybe the absolute toughest in minor league ball.

    Not sure how much that vote means, afterall, Derek Jeter has been voted the GG Award before. I hope Lava is a fast learner. He didn't catch every year in college, and is only 24. 

    We have the nucleaus of what was thought to be a championship level team. I think we need to keep riding this train but I wish we had dumped some short term talent for prospects at the break. The new CBA has changed our world. WE NEED solid prospects coming up and contributing because the FA market stinks, no one wants to trade great young pitching. The international market is now less money dominated and overslot signings are effectively gone. Our competitive position long term is slightly above the Pittsburghs, Houstons of the world, the Milwaukees, but it is not night and day like it used to be. OUR WORLD HAS CHANGED AND WE BETTER WAKE UP AND FACE IT.

    We got a nice jump on the system by stockpiling prospects before the big changes, but eventually, as you said, it will catch up to us. We need to start being pro-active under the nes system. Trading marginally helpful players (Sweeney, Padilla, Shoppach...)at the deadline for prospects is one big way to build up the prospect pool.

    For real. Think about it. We could absolutely be the Redsox of the 1950s again for extended periods unless we manage our resources more prudently. When we have opportunities to acquire young talent for a short term talent rental in a year we are probably not going to make the playoffs we should do it. We could have traded a few players like Salty, Shoppach, some of our relievers at the break ...etc. and not hurt our play off chances much at all. We really might have been just as well off with a Mortensen rather than a Padilla, a Lavarnway rather than a Shoppach or Salty. We are blowing it. Slowly blowing it. It seems minor now but over time it is the competitive edge going forward for us.

    My guess is Salty is traded this winter, if not, we may see him extended and Lava dealt (unless papi walks). We may see Ellsbury dealt as well.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I want to win, and be in a position to win every year. Now is a good time to break some guys like Linares, Lavarnway, Ciriaco, maybe even Gomez at DH some into the major league lineup, so that they can be better player options in 2013. Maybe only one of them make it. I'd rather them learn on the job now rather than throw them out there next summer when our chances of winning are better.

    Good points, but even if Gomez hits .400 in 50-100 PAs, does that change our plans for 2013?

    If we stopor greatly lessen playing Salty, we'll never know if last year's mealdown is part of a stamina issue or just a fluke.

    Ciriaco's ML  sample size is small. We could learn more about him by giving him 125-175 more PAs to end this year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Not sure how much that vote means, afterall, Derek Jeter has been voted the GG Award before

    Jeter has been voted the GC award, 5 times. I'm not sure how much your vote means.

    softy is still defending one of the worst fielding SSs in our generation, or at least the last 5 years.

    He criticizes Aviles for having poor range, but ignores the fatcs:

    Range Runs

    2012:  Jeter -13.1 Last in MLB (Aviles +6.0)
    11-12: Jeter -20.5 Last in MLB (Aviles +5.9)
    10-12: Jeter -32.3 Last in MLB (Aviles +6.9)
    09-12: Jeter -29.2 2nd last in MLB
    08-12: Jeter -31.9 3rd last in MLB

    DP runs:
    08-12 Jeter -4.2 2nd to last in MLB.

    UZR/150:
    08-12: -4.6 (31st out of 34top MLB SSs by innings)

    2010-2012 UZR/150: -11.2 2nd worst in MLB (2500+ innings at SS)

    2 Gold Gloves since 2009 are one of the biggest jokes in baseball. 

    I don't trust votes.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I think we have nothing to lose by rolling out the prospects and seeing how they perform.

    At best, we pick up the WC spot and add a little excitement to the season. And I do mean little. We'd be lucky to get past the play-in game and certainly have trouble in the ALDS if we do.

    At worst, we don't make the playoffs - and this is not a new or radical assumption. But even if we don't make a WC, we'll have broken in some of the new players and given them a chance to get over their rookie nerves.  And I could watch Middlebrooks rake until the cows come home.

    Moo.

    As I said earlier in the year, baseball will be its own reward for us this year.  We will see the core of a new team develop for 2013. We will have a chance to say goodbye to some players - or maybe try to hurry some of them to the exits. The team needs reinvention - as Nick Cafardo tweeted a few weeks ago, we need to blow up the roster. This is not a bad thing. People need to do it too at certain points in their lives.

    I still think the medical and training staffs need to be blown up as well. All those injuries must be due to something. What could have been done to prevent them?  How could Mike Cameron have snuck through a physical with a sports hernia?  Heck, I turn my head and cough once a year. Under medical supervision, of course.  Mostly.

    But I digress.



     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    I think we have nothing to lose by rolling out the prospects and seeing how they perform. At best, we pick up the WC spot and add a little excitement to the season. And I do mean little. We'd be lucky to get past the play-in game and certainly have trouble in the ALDS if we do. At worst, we don't make the playoffs - and this is not a new or radical assumption. But even if we don't make a WC, we'll have broken in some of the new players and given them a chance to get over their rookie nerves.  And I could watch Middlebrooks rake until the cows come home. Moo. As I said earlier in the year, baseball will be its own reward for us this year.  We will see the core of a new team develop for 2013. We will have a chance to say goodbye to some players - or maybe try to hurry some of them to the exits. The team needs reinvention - as Nick Cafardo tweeted a few weeks ago, we need to blow up the roster. This is not a bad thing. People need to do it too at certain points in their lives. I still think the medical and training staffs need to be blown up as well. All those injuries must be due to something. What could have been done to prevent them?  How could Mike Cameron have snuck through a physical with a sports hernia?  Heck, I turn my head and cough once a year. Under medical supervision, of course.  Mostly. But I digress.
    Posted by summerof67

    Good post, but who are you referring to with "hurrying to the exit"?

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Gomez has put up several years of great numbers in AAA. He could be a decent DH potentially. He should get a September call up.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Gomez has put up several years of great numbers in AAA. He could be a decent DH potentially. He should get a September call up.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects
    No glove. He sure can mash though.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Good post, but who are you referring to with "hurrying to the exit"?
    Posted by moonslav59


    Hey, moon. Thanks. I am not sure about the ones we will be sending off, but why does the nagging voice in my head say Josh?  And that is not a josh but a truth. Others, TBD. There are always a few who leave by way of FA or trades or retirement.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Sometimes a change of venue can really help a guy. We had a stud in Becket back 2007. That same guy might be gone but in another location I wouldn't be surprised if he turns it up again. He might be a guy who would benefit from such a deal. It's really a shame that players like him and Youk end up moving on sometimes even with Boos. I hated to see it when Yaz got booed. These guys are human. I never would have booed Crawford. Sometimes it's injuries which cause things or just a bad period we all go through in life. I would only boo a guy who isn't even trying.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Sometimes a change of venue can really help a guy. We had a stud in Becket back 2007. That same guy might be gone but in another location I wouldn't be surprised if he turns it up again. He might be a guy who would benefit from such a deal. It's really a shame that players like him and Youk end up moving on sometimes even with Boos. I hated to see it when Yaz got booed. These guys are human. I never would have booed Crawford. Sometimes it's injuries which cause things or just a bad period we all go through in life. I would only boo a guy who isn't even trying.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects

    That is some amazing posting, surely you must have played some ball in your time!

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : That is some amazing posting, surely you must have played some ball in your time!
    Posted by EnchiladaT


    No, I'm just a guy waiting to be taught baseball 101 while Salty continues his downward spiral. I'm a real dummy. Now on another thread he's taking credit for making astute assessments on Salty. Amazing. 

    Oh well. Life goes on.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    summer, looking at the big contracts, many here feel we are in a bind until 2015 when we lose most of them. I, myself, said we would be "crippled" financially for 7 years once we signed CC. While I have not been proven wrong, we can still compete for a ring between now and 2017 (CC's last year) or 2018 (AGon's last year). I figure we will have about $28M to spend this winter (not counting Papi). That may be enough to fill enough holes for us to compete in 2013, but having more would increase our odds. Dumping salary is generally not the way to do it, as with the Youk trade, but let's look at each big contract and see what can/should/might be done (contract cost listed is avg salary or luxury tax number):

    AGon: $22M to 2018- Along with most posters on this site, I was all for this trade and extension, but I did mention the fact that paying a top 6 1Bman $22M to be just marginally better than the #14-16 1Bman is not financially defendable, and that moving Youk to 3B at his age and increased fragility was a gamble. (I advocated trading Youk coming off his best OPS year of his career- while his stock was high.) That being said, I seriously doubt AGon is traded soon. We do have Mauro Gomez, Travis Shaw and numerous 3B & SS prospects that could be converted to 1Bmen, but none of these guys, except for maybe Gomez,  will be ML ready for 2013. AGon stays for the time being.

    Crawford: $20.3M to 2017- "Glorified platoon player", over-rated fielder and base-runner, overpaid by $8-12M a year depending on how you see his future? Many here say CC is "untradable".  "Nobody wants him." This is not true. Nobody wants him at $20M/yr, but many teams would like CC on their team, especially NL teams or teams with OF needs, both immediate and/or long term. The 3 questions are:
    1) How much of his contract do we have to pay another team to take him?
    2) Is CC worth the differential of the above question? 
    3) Do we have a replacement LF'er in house, or can we find one on the market for less cost, and be a plus over keeping Crawford. 
    I think CC's need for surgery makes any trade unlikely. He probably should just get the surgery now, so he can recover earlier. I have mentioned trading CC to other teams in exchange for their shorter term salary dump player(s) like Barry Zito and pay part of CC's deal up to the end. Personally, I think we're better off paying someone $10-11M a year to take CC. We save $9-10M a year, and can easily find an inhouse solution that is not a drop off from what CC has given us thus far, but if CC rebounds might be worse. I say, try hard to move this guy, but don't pay over $13-14M a year. His future potential is worth more than $6-7M a year.

    Beckett: $17M to 2014- Everyone seems to be jumping on the trade Josh bandwagon, but as with the CC situation, we need to weigh how much we will have to pay towards his deal with how much his future potential is (the 17 Million dollar question), and how can we replace him. With Lackey? With another high-priced FA that could be our next longterm bust? I think not.
    Josh's attitude, conditioning, injury issues, and up and down seasons have been discussed enough already, but the fact is, Josh has has very decent to great seasons every other year coming into MLB in 2001. Is the odd-even year thing going to continue? If so, we should keep him for 2013 and trade him before 2014. He may still not earn $17M with a good season in 2013, but paying someone $7-10M/yr to take him off our hands, means we have to find someone at $7-10M who can match Beckett's odd year numbers, which to me, is highly unlikely. We don't really have any MLB ready prospects for 2013, and if anyone thinks this is a World Series rotation, think again:
    1) Lester
    2) Buchholtz
    3) Lackey
    4) Morales
    5) Doubront
    6) Mortensen
    I'd look to get good return in trade for Josh. I wouldn't give him away. I mentioned something like a Beckett, Ellsbury, Melancon, and Ranaudo (plus some cash to offset Beckett's deal) for Cuerto & Marshall deal, but who knows who wants Josh. I think management will look hard to dump Beckett, and he will rebound next year. Josh's replacement will not do better. Just my opinion.
     
    Lackey: $13.8M to 2015 (counting $500K for 2015's injury option)  With the injury option kicked in, Lackey is an interesting player going forward. He has a lot to prove, but I said the same about Beckett after last September and looking to 2012. I even wonder if he might retire rather than play for the minimum wage in 2015. Maybe a re-structuring of his deal this winter might help both parties. Lackey is not going to be traded this winter. Long shot for next ST, if he looks good, but if he looks good, we'll probably keep him. I'd certainly keep any trade door open, but it is highly unlikely he is dealt before 2013.

    Ortiz: ($15.575M in 2012) Arb? Extension? Walk? This is at the top of the Sox off-season flowchart of moves along with possibly the keep or trade Ellsbury decision. With only about $28M to spend and so many holes to fill, an argument has been made by several posters that spending over half of our 2013 acquisition budget on a DH is foolhardy, especially when we have guys like Lavarnway, Gomez, Nava, and maybe a returning Ross who fit the DH profile wonderfully. The lack of clutch hitting by Papi over the last 3-4 years is also an issue, although many blame the lack of proper line-up protection as the main reason. Clutch or not, Papi is a big driving force of our offense, and replacing his numbers is near impossible. The question is, is a step down from Papi to Lava worth a $15M savings that can be applied to other positional upgrades? If we were able to get a Braun or Upton (via trade) or FA Josh Hamilton instead, would that make it worthwhile to let Papi walk or offer arb and hope he declines (getting draft picks)? I can see both sides to this argument, and it may end up being Ben's first big defining choice.

    Dice-K: Free Agent. Nothing more to be said.

    Pedey: $6.75M to 2014 w/ $11M option for '15 ($0.5M buyout)- His cost is minimal, even if he never regains his MVP form. Pedey's not going anywhere before 2013 and probably ever. Moving a 3B or SS prospect to 2B could be a future option, but I think Pedey is a 2B fixture in Boston.

    Ellsbury: ($8.05M in 2012): Last arb this winter. The big decision. I happen to think there is close to a zero chance Ellsbury plays for Boston in 2014. If my psoition is valid, it comes down to this: how much is 1 year of Ellsbury and likely 2 comp picks after he walks worth? How much will he get in his last arb year? Not having a big 2012 will help keep that cost down, but I think the Sox have to look at total value:
    Ellsbury + his 2013 contract cost+ 2 draft picks in 2014
    or
    Whatever we can get in trade, possibly in a bigger package deal.
    I'm thinking the latter might make more sense, but it would probably mean lessening our chances for 2013, but improving our chances beyond 2013, unless we involve a 3rd team in the trade and bring back a MLB ready player who helps us at another position, such as starting pitcher (#1-2 slot type) or a RH'd clean-up hitter type. Hard to guess what Ben will do, but I think Ellsbury will be traded before next season begins (when the comp pick value would be lost).

    Lester: $6M to 2013 w/ $13M option for '14 ($0.25M buyout)- Before this season, I seriously doubt anyone thought Lester's $13M option for 2014 was going to be too high. Now, it's a real possibility we decline the option after we see what Lester gives us in 2013. Trading Lester could happen, but I think moving Josh is a higher liklihood. Lester has more trade value, especially because of the 2014 option and not Josh's guaranteed money. I think Jon stays in Boston next year, but chances are good either him or Josh is gone.

    Buchholtz: $7.5M to 2015 2/$13M option for '16 ($0.25M buyout)- Buch is not going anywhere, unless in a package deal that nets us a bonafide ace. His cost is low, His upside is big. He needs to stay healthy. Not going anywhere soon.

    Others who may get big arb raises in the near future:
    Salty: ($2.5M in 2012) Last arb this winter. Could see Salty traded, especially if Papi returns. If Papi walks, we could see a Lava (DH/C), Salty (C), and Shoppach (C) roster.
    Bailey: ($3.9M in 2012) 2 arb year left. Bailey should be our closer next year, which will improve our pen by returning Aceves to his rightful role: short-mid set-up man.

    Overall: say we save 
    $10M/yr x 2 by dumping Beckett
    $10M/yr x 5 by dumping CC
    and not bring Papi back, we'd have about $50M to spend and this for a beginning roster:

    C: Salty
    DH/C: Lava (Gomez/Nava)
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Middlebrooks
    SS: Iggy/Ciriaco
    IF: Aviles
    IF: Punto (Ciriaco if not the FT SS)
    LF: _____ (Nava)
    CF: Ellsbury
    RF: ______
    OF: Sweeney
    OF: Kalish (Bradley/Brentz?)

    SP: _______
    SP: Lester
    SP: Buchholtz
    SP: Lackey
    SP: Doubront
    SP: Morales/Mortensen (Stewart)

    Cl: Bailey
    RP: Aceves
    RP: Breslow
    RP: Bard
    RP: Melancon
    RP: Hill
    RP: Atchison
    RP: Miller (Mortensen if not SP) (Carpenter)

    If we trade Ellsbury and fill in one of these gaps, we'd have about $60M (depending on how much the player we get for Jacoby costs) to fill these holes plus the new CF hole caused by Jacoby's departure. Maybe we could take a chance and try Bradley in CF to open the 2013 season. That would allow us much more money to spend on filling the other open slots.

    All is not lost for 2013 and beyond, but with these big contracts and the new CBA rules, we will have to get more creative, be more pro-active, and take some chances on fast-tracking prospects.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Gomez has put up several years of great numbers in AAA. He could be a decent DH potentially. He should get a September call up.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects


    I would like to see a bunch of AA kids get call-ups this september...Brentz, Bradley Jr., hazelbaker, etc...heck, If were out of it why not? No pressure and you give them a taste...All three of those names are 23yrs old i believe and have done pretty good in AA...I wouldnt even mind seeing a pitcher or 2, whether it be a spot start or the bp...
     
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