A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Avatar courtesy of Homare Sawa, of the Japanese women's soccer team, whom I met many years ago when she was just starting out. I told my kids at the time that she was the best player on Japan's team and she modestly said no she wasn't. There is little doubt now that she is the best player in the history of the sport in Japan and true to her culture of modesty and the pursuit of excellence. An excellent role model for her team and country!

    If we are fortunate enough to play her team in the Olympic finals I will still be rooting for the USA. Sorry Homare!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Moon, I would trade anyone as you know for the right deal but Ellsbury is in his prime, we do not really have a good replacement and i see no reason to try and trade a guy in his prime who was 2nd in the MVP vote last year.  There seems to be a good transition point to Bradley potentially after 2013. I just don't see us in major rebuilding mode with this team at any time in the near future. We should trade from areas of strength as prospects show that they are ready or we have an opportunity to upgrade via FA. 
    Posted by RedsoxProspects

    Yes, a transition from Ellsbury to Bradley could be seemless, but the main reason for trading Ellsbury this winter would be to get a better return than the possible draft pick when he walks. Maybe we can put that return to use for 2013 and beyond.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Gee Salty caught today, and Morales pitched great...and the Sox won.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Looks like trading Padilla at the deadline might have been the best thing to do... hindsight being 20/20.

    Oh wait... I said we should have several times beforehand.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    August 5th posting in mlbtraderumors, from Carfado:

    The Brewers' interest in catcher Kelly Shoppach was considerable after they had designated George Kottaras for assignment.  The Red Sox pushed fellow catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and will offer him around again if Ryan Lavarnway shows he can handle the staff and hits well.

     

    According to Cafardo, it appears that the Redsox tried to trade Salty more than they tried to trade Shoppach, even though the splits were advantageous for a Salty/Lavarnway option. At what point does the evidence start to become conclusive that Salty is not that well regarded by Sox management?

    If the above is true,  as it appears, is Salty worth less to the Sox than Shoppach? Remember, Lavarnway was with the team on the last day of the deadline, possibly in case a catcher got traded at the deadline. The Sox appear to have been shopping at least one catcher. Why couldn't they get a deal done?

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/08/red-sox-notes-gonzalez-dodgers-ellsbury.html
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I do not want to keep bashing Salty but I just noticed that he now leads the majors in stolen bases allowed with 59. A CS percentage of .192. That's probably a big part of his DRS score of 8 runs caused over league average.

    I think Salty is probably on his way out if they can find a home for him this winter. It might even be worst than I thought.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    According to Cafardo, it appears that the Redsox tried to trade Salty more than they tried to trade Shoppach, even though the splits were advantageous for a Salty/Lavarnway option. At what point does the evidence start to become conclusive that Salty is not that well regarded by Sox management? 

    Moon: Your logic is not sound. The Sox may value Salty very highly, but also value Lavarnway highly, and Ryan has many many more years of team control making the trade of Salty more advantageous.

    Me: I was talking about the Sox reported preference to trade Salty more than Shoppach. According to Carfardon, Milwaukee wanted Shoppach but the Redsox pushed Salty instead.

    It might have been because what Milwaukee offered for Shoppach was not something we wanted or needed, and to get what we wanted from Milwaukee, we offered Salty. Do not assume that we just offered to swap Salty instead of Shoppach for the same trade.

    If the above is true,  as it appears, is Salty worth less to the Sox than Shoppach? 

    Moon: No, if that was true, Shoppach would be catching 60% of the games. Salty will bring more in return than Shoppach-- much more! If Salty was traded, we'd need Shoppach as our back-up to finish out the season with Lava as the #1.  

    Me: According to Carfardo though, Milwaukee wanted Shoppach but the Redsox pushed Salty.

    Again, that does not prove the Sox value Shoppach more than Salty. That is a ridiculous notion. Since Shoppach is actually hitting righties better than lefties this year (a fluke) and better than Salty so far vs RHPs, he would be playing at least 50% of the time all year had we thought he was better than Salty.

    Remember, Lavarnway was with the team on the last day of the deadline, possibly in case a catcher got traded at the deadline. The Sox appear to have been shopping at least one catcher. Why couldn't they get a deal done? 

    Moon: Lava might have been on the team to replace Papi as well. 

    Me: They said he was to replace Shoppach who had a shin injury though. Then they played Lavarnway in place of both Shoppach and Salty. I personally have a hard time believing the Salty ear ache/food poisoning story. It's too fishy given the circumstances. Is it more likely Salty having a hissy fit when they discussed wanting to give Lavarnway a shot and he got mad or upset then they told him to take a day off.  

    I seriously doubt that, but I suppose you could be right.

    Moon: My guess is a deal did not get done because management did not think the return offers were worth what we were giving up. Unless we get equal or better return, I wouldn't trade anyone except maybe Shoppach. 

    Me: I think you are probably right in that they didn't think they were getting enough back but that might also say that the other teams did not value Salty as much as the Redsox did, although they wanted to keep Shoppach this year even with the bad splits. 

    It appears the Sox thought they were still in it, so trading Salty would have had to be a clear good deal. You are right: obviously no team valued Salty more than the Sox, at least enough to make an offer we felt was worth it. Perhaps, Salty's meltdown last late season scared some buyers away. This is one major reason I feel salty should remain our 55%+ catcher the rest of the way, in order to determine his stamina skillset.

    If that were true that would be amazing. But according to Carfardo that appears to be the situation. Other recent comments by Cafardo, both from his August 5th post on the Globe:

    1. Kelly Shoppach, C, Red Sox — The Brewers had considerable interest at the deadline, but the Sox held on. Doug Melvin had designated George Kottaras for assignment and was looking for a catcher. The Sox’ front office seems to have a fascination with Shoppach that nobody understands.

    Nowhere does it list who they offered. The Sox valued Shoppach's abilty and 2 month value to us seeking a playoff slot more than what anyone offered in return. There are two ways to look at this:
    1) The Sox overvalued Shoppach. (They want to win this year)
    2) No team valued 2 months of a back-up catcher enough to offer anything worthwhile.

    7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox — There’s no doubt the Red Sox asked about interest in Saltalamacchia at the trade deadline. If Ryan Lavarnway shows he can handle the staff and hits well, the Sox will offer Saltalamacchia around again. While he’s made strides, there seems to be a ceiling on his hitting ability and defense.

    As I have mentioned several times before, the Sox will likely trade Salty or Lava this winter, unless papi walks (& Lava DHs)
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Hey moon, I know this isn't realistic, but what about an outfield of Crawford, Bradley and Bogaerts next year with Linares on the bench?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    He hasn't hit above .240 since his first full season. There is more to his offence than just HR, Slugging and OPS. Agreed that those attribues are a lot but when he is really bad at everything else, can the HR compensate for that going forward, especially if they do not project him having that level of success going forward ( regressing to his mean ). He still is a rally killer in most instances. Does he hit HR when we are already winning big? Does he really help us win games with his HR pop to compensate for everything else? I'm not so sure. 

    There are so many misrepresentations here, I don't know where to start.

    Salty is at...
    BA    .230  (9 teams have a catcher BA below .230/17 teams below .241.)
    OBP .287  (6 teams have a catcher OBP below .287/17 below .309.)
    SLG .493  (29 teams have a worse catcher SLG% than Salty.)
    OPS .780  (24 teams have a worse OPS & 14 are below .700)

    Many of his overall defensive stats are bad, but he has improved a lot since April 25th in CERA areas, and probably others as well.

    Since when is it normal for 27 year old players to "regress to his mean"? Most players improve as the enter their prime years, but because Salty started MLB  so young, some people seem to expect him to begin declining when most catchers hit their stride in their laate 20's or early 30's (as VTek did).

    "Rally Killer most instances"? Look at these Sox numbers:
    Late & Close are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck. 

    Salty's .794 OPS Late & Close is better than his overall .780 OPS indicating that he does better in the clutch than otherwise.

    Out of our top 9 hitters by PAs in Late & Clutch situations, look where salty places:
    1)  Ross     .916
    2)  Sween  .830
    3)  Salty    .794
    4)  AGon   .763
    5)  Pedey .741
    6)  Ortiz   .697
    7)  Aviles  .696
    8)  Middl   .421
    9)  Nava   .378

    RBIs in the clutch:
    Ross   12
    AGon  10
    Salty    8  (more RBI's per PA than AGon)


    If what Cafardo is saying is true, the Sox are trying to shop him. It appears they had opportunities to move Shoppach to either the Rangers or Milwaukee or even others. Why were they unable to do that and isn't it a coincidence that Lavarnway was with the team a the deadline. Was the real focus of their efforts trying to move Salty?

    My guess is they listened to offers on all their catchers, since it is a position of depth and strength. They did not like what was offered.

    I think they will evaluate Salty and Lava the last 2 months of the year, and make a big decision this winter. They may wait to sign Salty (arb or otherwise-extension?) and then trade him. If Salty finishes strong, they may extend him and trade Lava, who probably has more value since his cost is low and his years of team control are long.

    I would not be surprised to see Shoppach traded via waiver deal this August as soon as Papi is healthy and Lava/Salty are not needed at DH. Since Milwaukee has a bad record among contenders, they might be able to get Shoppach anyways.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Hey moon, I know this isn't realistic, but what about an outfield of Crawford, Bradley and Bogaerts next year with Linares on the bench?
    Posted by carnie

    I have mentioned fast-tracking Bradley to our OF by 2013. I doubt Bogaerts can learn the OF that fast. I have liked Linares for a couple years and wondered why he never got a chance out of the 7 OF'ers we used this year.

    I like these guys better than Kalish and Sweeney, but maybe we shouldn't rush then too much. If we could sign another guy like Cody Ross for 2013, we could mix and match.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I have mentioned fast-tracking Bradley to our OF by 2013. I doubt Bogaerts can learn the OF that fast. I have liked Linares for a couple years and wondered why he never got a chance out of the 7 OF'ers we used this year. I like these guys better than Kalish and Sweeney, but maybe we shouldn't rush then too much. If we could sign another guy like Cody Ross for 2013, we could mix and match.
    Posted by moonslav59
    I'd offer Ross arbitration because he's probably worth a pick at this point. I would absolutely look to trade Ellsbury in a blockbuster, maybe with one of our catchers and a big league starting pitcher. Also if you brought up Bogaerts he could come off the bench at first. I think he has a good enough arm to play RF. Or he could play SS and you could throw Aviles or Punto into a winter blockbuster too.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I'd offer Ross arbitration because he's probably worth a pick at this point. I would absolutely look to trade Ellsbury in a blockbuster, maybe with one of our catchers and a big league starting pitcher. Also if you brought up Bogaerts he could come off the bench at first. I think he has a good enough arm to play RF. Or he could play SS and you could throw Aviles or Punto into a winter blockbuster too.

    The comp pick rules have changes, so I am not sure we'd get one for him. He does seem to fit our needs and has a great attitude. He might like Fenway enough to want to stay here. An Arb off would be for 1 year and would be a nice bridge to Bradley, Brentz, Bogaerts, Linares or whoever...

    Here's something I have thought about for a while...

    TB needs 1b and catching & SF needs offense...

    Winter 3 way Trade:

    TB Gets: Lavarnway, Travis Shaw, Brandon Jacobs, & Sean Coyle

    SF Gets: Shields, CC (+$5M/yr from 2014-2017 from Boston), Tazawa, & Aviles

    Boston gets: Lincecum, Hector Sanchez & Sergio Romo

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

     I'd offer Ross arbitration because he's probably worth a pick at this point. 
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    Fewer players require compensation: Under the old rules, a team that lost a free agent player anywhere in the top 40 per cent of his position group was compensated with top draft choices in the following June amateur player draft. Under the new rules, a club must make a "qualifying offer", calculated to be at least $ 12.4 million for one year, in order to receive compensation. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    I'd offer Ross arbitration because he's probably worth a pick at this point. I would absolutely look to trade Ellsbury in a blockbuster, maybe with one of our catchers and a big league starting pitcher. Also if you brought up Bogaerts he could come off the bench at first. I think he has a good enough arm to play RF. Or he could play SS and you could throw Aviles or Punto into a winter blockbuster too. The comp pick rules have changes, so I am not sure we'd get one for him. He does seem to fit our needs and has a great attitude. He might like Fenway enough to want to stay here. An Arb off would be for 1 year and would be a nice bridge to Bradley, Brentz, Bogaerts, Linares or whoever... Here's something I have thought about for a while... TB needs 1b and catching & SF needs offense... Winter 3 way Trade: TB Gets: Lavarnway, Travis Shaw, Brandon Jacobs, & Sean Coyle SF Gets: Shields, CC (+$5M/yr from 2014-2017 from Boston), Tazawa, & Aviles Boston gets: Lincecum, Hector Sanchez & Sergio Romo
    Posted by moonslav59
    I might do it. Lincecum is worth taking a chance on, and you've been talking about Romo for a while. Plus it still leaves Ellsbury as a potential trade chip to bring in another top 50 prospect. I agree with you about there pretty good chance of Ross accepting arbitration too. In that case I'd be glad to have Ross back on the Red Sox. Plus he's potentially a valuable trade chip.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I might do it. Lincecum is worth taking a chance on, and you've been talking about Romo for a while. Plus it still leaves Ellsbury as a potential trade chip to bring in another top 50 prospect. I agree with you about there pretty good chance of Ross accepting arbitration too. In that case I'd be glad to have Ross back on the Red Sox. Plus he's potentially a valuable trade chip.
    Posted by carnie

    Hector Sanchez is a nice catcher who switch hits. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I agree with you about there pretty good chance of Ross accepting arbitration too.

    To bad we didn't get him to agree to $3M this year and $5M for 2013.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    I agree with you about there pretty good chance of Ross accepting arbitration too. To bad we didn't get him to agree to $3M this year and $5M for 2013.
    Posted by moonslav59
    Yeah, he'll likely get at least 8 in arbitration. It'll be interesting to see if Ben has the stones to pull off the big moves he needs to to take this team back to the top.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I'd offer Ross arbitration because he's probably worth a pick at this point. 
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    Fewer players require compensation: Under the old rules, a team that lost a free agent player anywhere in the top 40 per cent of his position group was compensated with top draft choices in the following June amateur player draft. Under the new rules, a club must make a "qualifying offer", calculated to be at least $ 12.4 million for one year, in order to receive compensation. 

    Is the comp just one pick?

    Ross is not worth $12.5M in my book, but I would offer him arb and hope he takes it. The in season injury might help keep the price lower than it could have been.

    Papi could net us a pick if he turns down our expected $15M offer.

    Next year Ellsbury will probably be offered over $12.5M.

    Other than these two cases, we don't look to get anymore comp picks fro a while.


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    He hasn't hit above .240 since his first full season. There is more to his offence than just HR, Slugging and OPS. Agreed that those attribues are a lot but when he is really bad at everything else, can the HR compensate for that going forward, especially if they do not project him having that level of success going forward ( regressing to his mean ). He still is a rally killer in most instances. Does he hit HR when we are already winning big? Does he really help us win games with his HR pop to compensate for everything else? I'm not so sure.  There are so many misrepresentations here, I don't know where to start. Salty is at... BA    .230  (9 teams have a catcher BA below .230/17 teams below .241.) OBP .287  (6 teams have a catcher OBP below .287/17 below .309.) SLG .493  (29 teams have a worse catcher SLG% than Salty.) OPS .780  (24 teams have a worse OPS & 14 are below .700) Many of his overall defensive stats are bad, but he has improved a lot since April 25th in CERA areas, and probably others as well. Since when is it normal for 27 year old players to "regress to his mean"? Most players improve as the enter their prime years, but because Salty started MLB  so young, some people seem to expect him to begin declining when most catchers hit their stride in their laate 20's or early 30's (as VTek did). "Rally Killer most instances"? Look at these Sox numbers: Late & Close  are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.   Salty's .794 OPS Late & Close is better than his overall .780 OPS indicating that he does better in the clutch than otherwise. Out of our top 9 hitters by PAs in Late & Clutch situations, look where salty places: 1)  Ross     .916 2)  Sween  .830 3)  Salty    .794 4)  AGon   .763 5)  Pedey .741 6)  Ortiz   .697 7)  Aviles  .696 8)  Middl   .421 9)  Nava   .378 RBIs in the clutch: Ross   12 AGon  10 Salty    8  (more RBI's per PA than AGon) If what Cafardo is saying is true, the Sox are trying to shop him. It appears they had opportunities to move Shoppach to either the Rangers or Milwaukee or even others. Why were they unable to do that and isn't it a coincidence that Lavarnway was with the team a the deadline. Was the real focus of their efforts trying to move Salty? My guess is they listened to offers on all their catchers, since it is a position of depth and strength. They did not like what was offered. I think they will evaluate Salty and Lava the last 2 months of the year, and make a big decision this winter. They may wait to sign Salty (arb or otherwise-extension?) and then trade him. If Salty finishes strong, they may extend him and trade Lava, who probably has more value since his cost is low and his years of team control are long. I would not be surprised to see Shoppach traded via waiver deal this August as soon as Papi is healthy and Lava/Salty are not needed at DH. Since Milwaukee has a bad record among contenders, they might be able to get Shoppach anyways.
    Posted by moonslav59

    1) I don't misrepresent things, certainly intentionally. A guy who can't seem to hit above .235 for 3 years in a row, or get on base more than at a .300 rate had better hit 20 HR or he is probably not in a championship level lineup. Especially when he is statistically one of the worst defenders in baseball at his position ( among starting level catchers ). I've cited the numbers. They are relevant and reputable. He's a - DWAR value at this point in the season. Tied for the most runs cost to his team from the catching position in all of MLB. He's is NOT a good defender. He has to hit well to be in the lineup. You know, to attempt to represent Salty as even an average defender at this point is clear misrepresentation. And several of you are doing that right now.

    2) I've given you the definition of "regress to the mean" just 2 weeks ago as you misunderstood it last time also. It has nothing to do with aging:


    3) The 7th inning data is really a stretch. Most players probably hit better after the 7th inning. They are facing tired starters after seeing them several times or relievers who are not good enough to be starters. And the discrepancy as well as the sample size are very tiny. I'm misrepresenting? Where do I begin?

    4) It certainly surprised me that they would be pushing so much to move Salty but Cafardo did say "There is no question" in that regard. Why in the world would that be? Moving Shoppach is the more conventional choice. There is one logical answer. The FO doesn't think Salty is their guy going forward, just like Texas didn't just 2 years ago, and exactly as I have been saying for almost a year now. He has had an opportunity and has not improved enough to win the job long term. The Sox are trying to bail. This is for real. He might even end up a non tender candidate next winter. The Sox tried to trade him in a sell high opportunity and they could not get it done. Why would they be trying to trade him if they wanted him back next year? They didn't blow up the team. They kept almost everyone. They wanted to trade Salty.

    Thats how it looks to me and I'm not misrepresenting anything. I don't know how we have come to this. I certainly don't deserve it. If anything, what I have been saying is proving to be right.
     

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I'd offer Ross arbitration because he's probably worth a pick at this point. I would absolutely look to trade Ellsbury in a blockbuster, maybe with one of our catchers and a big league starting pitcher. Also if you brought up Bogaerts he could come off the bench at first. I think he has a good enough arm to play RF. Or he could play SS and you could throw Aviles or Punto into a winter blockbuster too.
    Posted by carnie

    Carnie, the kid is in A ball and has never played a single minor league game in the OF. I'm sorry but we will not even taste Bogaerts at all next year even in September in all likelihood, in any position.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Carnie, the kid is in A ball and has never played a single minor league game in the OF. I'm sorry but we will not even taste Bogaerts at all next year even in September in all likelihood, in any position.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects
    I did say right up front that it probably wasn't realistic. I'd do it though, if putting Ellsbury and Ross in a blockbuster could bring back a pitcher like Hernandez. This team isn't going anywhere with our pitchers pitching the way they are.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    If you guys are interested in Soccer at all, today's USA vs Canada game was one of the best ones I've ever seen. Epic!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    If Lavarnway is still on the roster when Ortiz returns, Salty may be whiffing himself into a secondary role, or something like a 50/50 split behind the plate. He seems more disciplined at the plate but he's late on hittable fastballs. He hit the ball on the screws and flied deeply to center last night. He hit the ball on the screws and lined out to third tonight. He walked tonight. He's been better at that lately.  ( Seven walks in July. ) But he's not making contact enough, even if the balls he hit last night and tonight had gone for hits. His numbers would have looked better.
    Both the FO and BV are keeping close eyes on the catcher situation. Impossible to know which way they are leaning ( despite all the speculation about trades ), or whether they have decided to watch the situation play out. That is really all the rest of us can do.
    I think Moon is probably right to think that the Sox will trade either Salty or Lavarnway during the offseason. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    yeah, but ex, the SPs seemed to throw well to Salty. How come of late? What is that significance? To me, it's he has the pitchers backs and has their confidence. So I say let him catch and let him catch frequently. Maybe he will hit some more HRs. We'll see.
     
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