Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III
posted at 8/6/2012 10:58 PM EDT
1) I don't misrepresent things, certainly intentionally.
Sorry, I was being a bit too harsh.
A guy who can't seem to hit above .235 for 3 years in a row, or get on base more than at a .300 rate had better hit 20 HR or he is probably not in a championship level lineup. Especially when he is statistically one of the worst defenders in baseball at his position ( among starting level catchers ). I've cited the numbers. They are relevant and reputable. He's a - DWAR value at this point in the season. Tied for the most runs cost to his team from the catching position in all of MLB. He's is NOT a good defender. He has to hit well to be in the lineup. You know, to attempt to represent Salty as even an average defender at this point is clear misrepresentation. And several of you are doing that right now.
No, I meerly mentioned that Salty's CERA since April 25th is lower than the AL season average CERA. Salty's CS rate is about 24th out of the top 30 catchers by innings caught this year. If you take away the CS assists, Salty is above average in assists per inning.
I have watched every pitch of every game this year. I had been calling for a trade of Salty all winter long based mostly on his defense and CERA related limitations. I have nothing to gain by changing my view mid season. I am sure Salty's overall defensive numbers this year make him below average or maybe even close to the worst, but I have seen a vast improvement since April 25th in nearly all areas of his defense except CS%. Maybe he still is below average even since April, but I see improvement. At age 27, I think it possible he continue to improve, but I could be wrong.
2) I've given you the definition of "regress to the mean" just 2 weeks ago as you misunderstood it last time also. It has nothing to do with aging:
Just curious why you expect any 27 year old player to "regress to the mean"? He could easily hit 35 HRs next year.
3) The 7th inning data is really a stretch. Most players probably hit better after the 7th inning. They are facing tired starters after seeing them several times or relievers who are not good enough to be starters. And the discrepancy as well as the sample size are very tiny. I'm misrepresenting? Where do I begin?
Most Sox players have a worse OPS after the 7th inning in close games than other situations that are not considered clutch. You called Salty a rally-killer, and with his low BA even in clutch situations, your point is not without merit, however, Salty remains one of our best clutch hitters this year, even though the sample size is only abour 30-60 PAs for the top 9 hitters on this team. Point well taken on the sample size, but I should say that you were the one who brought up the "rally killer" issue, and how many PAs by Salty or others could be considered in the midst of a rally?
BTW, our whole team has suffered in Late & Close situations (or in the clutch). The team has a .241 BA Late & Close, while Salty is at .239.
4) It certainly surprised me that they would be pushing so much to move Salty but Cafardo did say "There is no question" in that regard. Why in the world would that be?
Because we have bigger needs than catching. because we have strength and depth at catching. Because traditionally a team improves by trading from a position of strength and depth for a position of weakness or lack of depth.
Moving Shoppach is the more conventional choice.
Of course, but be honest, what would any team give for a back-up 2 month rental catcher. true, he is good enough and rested enough to be a 65% catcher for 2 months, but I seriously doubt anyone offered a lot for Shoppach, and maybe the news on Papi scared the Sox out of dealing Salty or Shoppach, since they envisioned Lava at DH not catcher until Papi returns. I would not be surprised if Shoppach is traded via waivers the minute we are surePpapi is healthy.
There is one logical answer. The FO doesn't think Salty is their guy going forward, just like Texas didn't just 2 years ago, and exactly as I have been saying for almost a year now. He has had an opportunity and has not improved enough to win the job long term. The Sox are trying to bail. This is for real.
I do think Salty is the likely catcher to traded this winter. He likely was not traded this July for one of two reasons:
1) They did not receive an offer they felt was worthy of Salty's value.
2) They did not want to give up on 2012, and with papi's injury, were not ready to let Lava catch instead of DH.
He might even end up a non tender candidate next winter.
I think this has a 0% chance of happening. They can sign him via arb or compromise and deal him easily even if he makes $6-8M.
The Sox tried to trade him in a sell high opportunity and they could not get it done. Why would they be trying to trade him if they wanted him back next year?
I gave 2 reasons, and there could be more. The Sox apparently tried to trade several players, many of which will be back next year.
The Sox may have felt it is better to trade him this winter, as I have said all along is the best plan, since Salty's stamina test is going to be a big part of determining his future value. Also, seeing id Salty's CERA related improvement continues beyond just the last 3 months.
They didn't blow up the team. They kept almost everyone. They wanted to trade Salty.
The catcher position has our closest ML-ready prospect. That is the reason they looked to improve at another position without losing much (if any) at the catcher position. It does not mean they dislike Salty. They started him tonight in a big game.
Thats how it looks to me and I'm not misrepresenting anything. I don't know how we have come to this. I certainly don't deserve it. If anything, what I have been saying is proving to be right.
Again, I am sorry for using the term "misrepresent" just because I think you were wrong on some of you points. I was wrong. Your points have merit, but I feel mine do too.