A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]This is a new world for us on this board. We haven't been in this situation since before this forum was established. It's not nearly as much fun! We all would much rather be in a winning situation.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]

    It's a new world for Ben & Larry too. I hope they see it as such and stop clinging to the hope we can win this year. Do what is right for our future!

    Don't just hand our free-agents-to-be away, but get something useful for them while we still can.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : It's a new world for Ben & Larry too. I hope they see it as such and stop clinging to the hope we can win this year. Do what is right for our future! Don't just hand our free-agents-to-be away, but get something useful for them while we still can.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    They had a chance to do that at the break but for the most part declined. We still have a shot but it's going to take playing .670 ball to do it. We have maybe a 10% chance at best. We should have bailed on several players at the break but I'm all for trying to win at this point. Try to move players we clearly can replace internally through waiver wire deals but we probably don't gain much as our negotiating position is much lower generally with waiver related deals. We should hope and pray Lester, Beckett....etc. go on a run and guys like Crawford and Ellsbury step up. It's still possible we can run off a win streak and change everything. 

    It's just not at all likely. Cherington and group haven't adjusted fully to the situation, the new CBA ...etc. They blew it at the break. Only providence will potentially save them and the odds of that are barely 10%.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    So moon, if you could trade two of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford for top 50 prospects and then use those guys plus Bradley, Bogaerts, Barnes and Brentz to get Hernandez would you do it?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]So moon, if you could trade two of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford for top 50 prospects and then use those guys plus Bradley, Bogaerts, Barnes and Brentz to get Hernandez would you do it?
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    Not even remotely, in the same solar system in terms of trade value.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Not even remotely, in the same solar system in terms of trade value.  
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]Feel free to propose an alternative. Or not.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    They had a chance to do that at the break but for the most part declined. We still have a shot but it's going to take playing .670 ball to do it. We have maybe a 10% chance at best. We should have bailed on several players at the break but I'm all for trying to win at this point. Try to move players we clearly can replace internally through waiver wire deals but we probably don't gain much as our negotiating position is much lower generally with waiver related deals. We should hope and pray Lester, Beckett....etc. go on a run and guys like Crawford and Ellsbury step up. It's still possible we can run off a win streak and change everything. 

    I'm usually the last fan to give up, but I'm done with hoping for this year. Yes, we still have a shot, but it so remote, I'd rather look to next year by building up our prospects through a few waiver deals.

    It's just not at all likely. Cherington and group haven't adjusted fully to the situation, the new CBA ...etc. 

    Too early to judge.

    They blew it at the break. 

    Hard to know what specifically was offered, but knowing what we know now about our 2012 chances, hindsiaght says we probably could have got more for some players then than now.

    Only providence will potentially save them and the odds of that are barely 10%.

    Maybe 10% to make the playoffs, but less than 1% to win it all in my book.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    So moon, if you could trade two of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford for top 50 prospects and then use those guys plus Bradley, Bogaerts, Barnes and Brentz to get Hernandez would you do it?

    I wouldn't even give the 4 B's for Felix, let alone the prospects gained through the trades mentioned.

    My guess is all 4 will be in Baseball America's top 100 or even top 50 very soon.

    I'd offer...



    Salty or 2 from:  Sweeney, Tazawa or Nava

    plus pick 6 of these prospects:

    Brentz
    Iggy
    Swihart
    Cecchini
    Coyle
    Ranaudo
    Jacobs 
    Britton
    Workman
    Wilson
    Shaw
    Gomez
    Lianres
    Lin

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In case anyone's wondering what's up next:

    TB    plays 7 on the road (3 @ SEA & 4 @ LAA). Someone has to lose.
    BAL  plays the Sox for 3, then @ DET for 3 & @ TEX for 3.
    LAA  has a tough stretch starting the 16th; TB4, @Bos3, @Det3, & Bos3.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    No need for a Part IV.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I've mentioned how "overpaying" a free agent saves money on developing a player through your system and how it usually takes paying to develop many many preospects to get one tha contributes. It's not about just looking at the cost of the FA. Also, when you compare a FA signing and compare him to non-free agent contracts, it is a bit misleading. Many "team friendly" contracts were signed by players before they reached arb or during the early arb years, when "free market" prices just don't apply.

    Here's a list of FS starters this winter (Age at start of 2013):

    Greinke (29)
    A Sanchez (29)
    McCarthy (29)
    C Lewis (33)
    Lohse (34)
    Marcum (31)
    Guthrie (33+)
    Pavano (37)
    Saunders (31)
    J Sanchez (30)
    Lowe (39)
    Liriano (29)
    Dice-K (32)
    Blanton (32)
    Correia (32)
    Zambrano (31) (Player vesting option is void)

    Pitchers in Red will likely be Free Agents due to high option cost...

    Options:
    Peavy (31) $22M club w $4M buyout
    Dickey $5M club w $300K buyout
    Shields $9M club w $1.5M buyout, then 2014: $12M club w $1M buyout
    Floyd  $9.5M club no buyout
    E Santana (29) $13M club w $1M buyout (May be kept by LAA)
    Hudson $9M club w $1M buyout
    Haren (32) $15.5M club w $3.5M buyout (May be kept by LAA)
    Westbrook $8.5M mutual w $1M buyout of club declines
    R. Hernandez (32) $9M club & 2014 $12M club
    Baker $9.25 (31) M club
    de la Rosa $11M PLAYER OPTION w $M buyout, if taken club 2014 option.


    While Peavy, Lewis, Lohse, Marcum, and Haren offer hopes of a nice return, their ages and/or injury histories are troublesome. The plus to these guys 9except for Peavy and marcum at age 31 is that the others might be had at short term deals.

    Probably the best available FA pitchers for the Sox are:

    Best:
    Greinke
    Peavy
    A Sanchez
    McCarthy

    Good:
    Haren
    Santana

    Marginal:
    Lohse/Marcum/Guthrie

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Any hope to this season needs to begin with a hot streak. Without Papi (where's softy blasting his slow return?) and Middlebrooks (Where's Youk when you need him, or even Lillibridge for that matter) it will be hard, nearly impossible, but not zero %.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Any hope to this season needs to begin with a hot streak. Without Papi (where's softy blasting his slow return?) and Middlebrooks (Where's Youk when you need him, or even Lillibridge for that matter) it will be hard, nearly impossible, but not zero %.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Lester's outing on Sunday was surely a good sign, especially getting his curveball in for strikes.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    The O's are tough to beat, especially for us of late. They find ways to win close games- the opposite of us, but if we sweep them now, it's a whole new ballgame.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Wow, reports on the team meeting are mind blowing. Guys like Adrian Gonzalez taking the lead on that. Pedroia? Management has to support their guy to a degree but BV is not coming out of this looking good. Can we make a trade with ESPN?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I wonder who they 8 that did not go were.

    What a bunch of crybabies!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Probably the Ciriacos and Navas and others without long term contracts and I certainly don't blame them. For Adrian Gonzalez to be the one texting is a big deal. For him to be willing to be the point man is insightful. Adrian is not by nature a shake up the system kind of guy. He's a go with the flow kind of guy. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Probably the Ciriacos and Navas and others without long term contracts and I certainly don't blame them. For Adrian Gonzalez to be the one texting is a big deal. For him to be willing to be the point man is insightful. Adrian is not by nature a shake up the system kind of guy. He's a go with the flow kind of guy. 
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]

    It not only obviously exposes a problem, it exposes multiple problems, one of which is the players lack of taking resposibility for their own struggles.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    It seems that we are making a lot of bad management decisions. Fire Lucchino as far as I'm concerned. Henry should open his wallet and buy him out. Or at minimum take him out of baseball operations. The problems are too many to recite from not letting BV bring in his own team of coaches, the BV hire itself, player conditioning, and even owner responses to player issues. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    With Shoppach now traded, it looks like the sox have made their catching decision and are going with a LH salty/RH Lavarnway going forward...Seems like the most logical choice to me.
    As far as this meeting goes. I heard that the players were texting AG about this and looked to him as a leader to arrange the meeting, not that he was the one who initiated it. Either way, this whole thing would not have happened if LL just let BC do his job and hire who he thought was the right guy. if LL wants to make GM decisions then make him the GM. IMO LL has hurt this team more than he has helped and this ownership has taken no responsibility for anything and continue to pass the buck...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Bumping thread to rid the front page of 2004 idiots redundancy.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    With Shoppach now traded, it looks like the sox have made their catching decision and are going with a LH salty/RH Lavarnway going forward...Seems like the most logical choice to me. As far as this meeting goes. I heard that the players were texting AG about this and looked to him as a leader to arrange the meeting, not that he was the one who initiated it. Either way, this whole thing would not have happened if LL just let BC do his job and hire who he thought was the right guy. if LL wants to make GM decisions then make him the GM. IMO LL has hurt this team more than he has helped and this ownership has taken no responsibility for anything and continue to pass the buck...
    Posted by southpaw777

    Upper mangement does get some of the blame, but the fact is too many player underperformed by any standard of expectaion used, including their own.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to  Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : With Shoppach now traded, it looks like the sox have made their catching decision and are going with a LH salty/RH Lavarnway going forward...Seems like the most logical choice to me. As far as this meeting goes. I heard that the players were texting AG about this and looked to him as a leader to arrange the meeting, not that he was the one who initiated it. Either way, this whole thing would not have happened if LL just let BC do his job and hire who he thought was the right guy. if LL wants to make GM decisions then make him the GM. IMO LL has hurt this team more than he has helped and this ownership has taken no responsibility for anything and continue to pass the buck... Posted by southpaw777 Upper mangement does get some of the blame, but the fact is too many player underperformed by any standard of expectaion used, including their own.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Exactly. If your name is Dustin Pedroia you need to be getting on base, and if your name is Josh Beckett you need to throw your curveball for strikes. I'm not sure if anyone could manage this bunch of crybabies. redsoxprospects does have a point about LL though. He seems to be showing the same pattern with us as he did with the Orioles. He had a nice run at the beginning, and now seems to be running the franchise into the ground. He neutered Ben when he overrode him on the manager decision, and then he neutered his manager when he wouldn't let him name his own coaching staff. Maybe the only way to fix the Red Sox is for Mr. Henry to buy out Larry. And hopefully sell that share to Dan Duquette.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Exactly. If your name is Dustin Pedroia you need to be getting on base, and if your name is Josh Beckett you need to throw your curveball for strikes. I'm not sure if anyone could manage this bunch of crybabies. redsoxprospects does have a point about LL though. He seems to be showing the same pattern with us as he did with the Orioles. He had a nice run at the beginning, and now seems to be running the franchise into the ground. He neutered Ben when he overrode him on the manager decision, and then he neutered his manager when he wouldn't let him name his own coaching staff. Maybe the only way to fix the Red Sox is for Mr. Henry to buy out Larry. And hopefully sell that share to Dan Duquette.

    I've always liked Larry, and felt he had a big hand in building the 2004 and 2007 teams, maybe even more than Theo, but since 2007 (other than building the farm through stock-piling comp picks) there has clearly been more bad moves than good ones.

    If you are like me and give Larry a lot of credit, then we have to put a lot of blame on him for the recent failures. If you think Larry had a minimal role in the two rings, then I guess it is obvious his power increased this past winter, and what was the result? 

    Not good, either way you look at his role.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Exactly. If your name is Dustin Pedroia you need to be getting on base, and if your name is Josh Beckett you need to throw your curveball for strikes. I'm not sure if anyone could manage this bunch of crybabies. redsoxprospects does have a point about LL though. He seems to be showing the same pattern with us as he did with the Orioles. He had a nice run at the beginning, and now seems to be running the franchise into the ground. He neutered Ben when he overrode him on the manager decision, and then he neutered his manager when he wouldn't let him name his own coaching staff. Maybe the only way to fix the Red Sox is for Mr. Henry to buy out Larry. And hopefully sell that share to Dan Duquette. I've always liked Larry, and felt he had a big hand in building the 2004 and 2007 teams, maybe even more than Theo, but since 2007 (other than building the farm through stock-piling comp picks) there has clearly been more bad moves than good ones. If you are like me and give Larry a lot of credit, then we have to put a lot of blame on him for the recent failures. If you think Larry had a minimal role in the two rings, then I guess it is obvious his power increased this past winter, and what was the result?  Not good, either way you look at his role.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I agree with you about Larry having a big hand in the two world titles. Especially 2007. He was also smart enough to bring in Theo when he couldn't get Billy Beane. His history does suggest though, that he has a limited shelf life as the HHIC. I just hope we don't wait as long as Baltimore did before making a change.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I agree with you about Larry having a big hand in the two world titles. Especially 2007. He was also smart enough to bring in Theo when he couldn't get Billy Beane. His history does suggest though, that he has a limited shelf life as the HHIC. I just hope we don't wait as long as Baltimore did before making a change.

    I think he's pretty tight with Henry. 

    He must not want to be the GM, but if that is so, then he should let his GM do his own thing.
     

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