A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I agree with you about Larry having a big hand in the two world titles. Especially 2007. He was also smart enough to bring in Theo when he couldn't get Billy Beane. His history does suggest though, that he has a limited shelf life as the HHIC. I just hope we don't wait as long as Baltimore did before making a change. I think he's pretty tight with Henry.  He must not want to be the GM, but if that is so, then he should let his GM do his own thing.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Agreed.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    So, most or at least a significant some are in agreement:

    Replace Larry.
    Replace Ben.
    Replace BV.
    Replace the coaches.
    Replace the trainer and conditioning coach.
    Replace Salty, AGon, Pedey, Aviles, Punto, CC, Jake, Sweeney, Nava, Kalish, Papi, Beckett, Lester, Bard, Lackey, Cook, Dice-K, & Melancon.

    Is that about it? Did I miss someone?

     
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]So, most or at least a significant some are in agreement: Replace Larry. Replace Ben. Replace BV. Replace the coaches. Replace the trainer and conditioning coach. Replace Salty, AGon, Pedey, Aviles, Punto, CC, Jake, Sweeney, Nava, Kalish, Papi, Beckett, Lester, Bard, Lackey, Cook, Dice-K, & Melancon. Is that about it? Did I miss someone?  
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I sincerely hope I haven't taken all those positions. Replace Larry, yes. I still think Bobby should get a shot at managing the Red Sox with his own coaching staff though. The jury is still out on young Ben, he definitely got fleeced in the Theo deal, and may have gotten fleeced on Youk too. But Stewart is a promising young arm, so we may need to wait awhile before we pronounce judgement on that deal. He also brought in Padilla, Ross, Cook, Mortenson, Podsednik and Ciriaco. So overall I'd grade Ben as a plus as GM, especially considering Larry essentially neutered him over the winter. AG, Papi, Pedey, CC, Lester and probably Beckett are most likely keepers, at least in the short term. The one guy I would seriously try to dump off the roster is Lackey. I just don't like him. Never have. I would also try to make some kind of Ellsbury for Johnny Cueto trade happen.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    im not saying the players are free from criticism. far from it. It just seems that there is too much micro-managing going on with this organization. Give a man a job and let him live or die with it.
    I realize this ownership has been huge part in the last decade of this teams success, but they have also been a huge part in its demise too...
    Big changes are needed from the FO all the way down to the 25-man roster...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    He also brought in Padilla, Ross, Cook, Mortenson, Podsednik and Ciriaco. So overall I'd grade Ben as a plus as GM, especially considering Larry essentially neutered him over the winter. 

    Plus, Shoppach, Breslow, Bailey, Sweeney, Punto...

    The dump of Scutaro's salary for Mortensen allowed Aviles to give us better fielding at SS than Scoot would have, and about the same hitting. It also freed up money to sign Ross, Padilla, Cook, and Shoppach.

    Reddick went off the charts, but we still have 2 control  years of Bailey and 1 of Sweeney.

    Given the restriction, I'd say Ben has done alright, but this winter will be more telling as big decisions have to be made, namely:
    1) Papi?
    2) Keep or trade Jacoby?
    3) Who's the catcher, and do we trade the other if Papi stays?
    4) Who plays RF?
    5) Who is our ace?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    moon I just flew my family back to the States and they are going to see their first baseball game tonight, Sea Dogs. Have a luxury box ready and waiting.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Nice! I wish I was back in Maine today. It's like 99 here.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]So, most or at least a significant some are in agreement: Replace Larry. Replace Ben. Replace BV. Replace the coaches. Replace the trainer and conditioning coach. Replace Salty, AGon, Pedey, Aviles, Punto, CC, Jake, Sweeney, Nava, Kalish, Papi, Beckett, Lester, Bard, Lackey, Cook, Dice-K, & Melancon. Is that about it? Did I miss someone?  
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    yes, replace any fan that still has hope for 2012...few left.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    What is the replacement value of a fan?

    Does fangraphs keep such stats?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    So here's my thoughts on the state of the team right now. I hate to say it, but 2012 is looking more and more like a lost season. It looks like both Buchholz and Lester can be pretty solid 2/3 type starters though. We seriously need to hope that either Lackey or Beckett has a good year next year. We also have Morales, Doubront, Aceves and probably Tazawa who can start next year. Some of those guys will wind up in the pen next year, at least most of the time. In the outfield we have Crawford, Ellsbury, and hopefully Ross, although I wouldn't mind seeing Linares get some time out there. The pen also has Bailey, Melancon, Mortenson, and Breslow. We potentially have a pretty good infield with Middlebrooks, one of Iglesias, Bogaerts or Ciriaco at SS, Pedey at 2nd and Adrian at 1st. It'll also be interesting to see what Salty and Lavarnaway can do as a combo at C. The two biggest question marks are Bobby Valentine and Big Papi. It's looking a lot like Bobby is going to be a 1 year wonder in Boston. I'm not saying that I think that's right, but it looks like the reality of it. So who do the Sox bring in as manager? I hope they do something sensible like hire Alomar or Hale to run the club. And I hope they do it quickly, because you don't want to go into the winter meetings without a manager. Then there's Big Papi, I'd bring him back. moonslav laid out a 3 year deal for the big man that would cost 10M a year against the luxury tax that I think David would accept.
    The other question is, is this team good enough to win? The offense is I think, especially if we can avoid the injury plague of recent years. I have zero faith in the pitching to get us to the promised land though. The bullpen should be ok, but without a leader for the starting rotation, I just don't think we're good enough to win. Of course I could be wrong. I frequently am.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Usually, I am one of the last to give up. Carnie finally joined the club. It's not a happy club, but there is reason for optimism if we can make some smart moves and signings.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I wanted to give up based on the hope of actually enjoying what was left of 2012.. as in bring up Lav and some others, maybe find a way to trade some of the real problems away.......... I am pumped at the idea of 2013 though I fear the FO just does not the will or method to make such change.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    If the waiver wire deadline passes and Ross and other FAs to be are still here, then we lost an opportunity to get some decent prospects for next year or this winter's prospect trade offers.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE] He must not want to be the GM, but if that is so, then he should let his GM do his own thing.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    My impression is that Lucchino and Theo had very different philosophies when it came to building a ballclub.  I think that Lucchino put more emphasis on signing free agents and bringing in some big names to play for Boston.  Theo wanted to build the farm and envisioned having a team of home grown players.

    I think those two butted heads regularly, ultimately resulting in Theo resigning the gorilla suit escapade after the 2005 season.  Lucchino probably then agreed to give Theo more autonomy in order to get Theo to return. 

    This relationship probably worked well for the next several years, but then the more time that passed after the 2007 championship, the more pressure Lucchino began reapplying on Theo, resulting in the many long term contracts.

    All speculation on my part, but IMO, Lucchino is mostly to blame for the contracts that are handcuffing this team.  Like you said, he needs to butt out and let his GM do his job.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : My impression is that Lucchino and Theo had very different philosophies when it came to building a ballclub.  I think that Lucchino put more emphasis on signing free agents and bringing in some big names to play for Boston.  Theo wanted to build the farm and envisioned having a team of home grown players. I think those two butted heads regularly, ultimately resulting in Theo resigning the gorilla suit escapade after the 2005 season.  Lucchino probably then agreed to give Theo more autonomy in order to get Theo to return.  This relationship probably worked well for the next several years, but then the more time that passed after the 2007 championship, the more pressure Lucchino began reapplying on Theo, resulting in the many long term contracts. All speculation on my part, but IMO, Lucchino is mostly to blame for the contracts that are handcuffing this team.  Like you said, he needs to butt out and let his GM do his job.
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]

    So Lucchino is mostly responsible for this mess, right? Why should he not be fired then?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : So Lucchino is mostly responsible for this mess, right? Why should he not be fired then?
    Posted by pumpsie-green[/QUOTE]He can't be. He's an owner.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    My impression is that Lucchino and Theo had very different philosophies when it came to building a ballclub. I think that Lucchino put more emphasis on signing free agents and bringing in some big names to play for Boston. Theo wanted to build the farm and envisioned having a team of home grown players.

    Any evidence? Just curious.

    Theo mentioned the thought of going with "home grown players', but I thought he said it was discussed at times, but I never got the impression that he lobbied for that plan.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : My impression is that Lucchino and Theo had very different philosophies when it came to building a ballclub.  I think that Lucchino put more emphasis on signing free agents and bringing in some big names to play for Boston.  Theo wanted to build the farm and envisioned having a team of home grown players. I think those two butted heads regularly, ultimately resulting in Theo resigning the gorilla suit escapade after the 2005 season.  Lucchino probably then agreed to give Theo more autonomy in order to get Theo to return.  This relationship probably worked well for the next several years, but then the more time that passed after the 2007 championship, the more pressure Lucchino began reapplying on Theo, resulting in the many long term contracts. All speculation on my part, but IMO, Lucchino is mostly to blame for the contracts that are handcuffing this team.  Like you said, he needs to butt out and let his GM do his job.
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]
    Do you have good reason to think that Lucchino pressed Theo to extend Beckett, to trade for Gonzalez, and to sign Crawford?

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    To me, Lucchinno is good at PR and park operations. He should leave baseball operations to better baseball people. Too bad we lost Farrell. Even Hoyer would have been a plus.
     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]My impression is that Lucchino and Theo had very different philosophies when it came to building a ballclub. I think that Lucchino put more emphasis on signing free agents and bringing in some big names to play for Boston. Theo wanted to build the farm and envisioned having a team of home grown players. Any evidence? Just curious. Theo mentioned the thought of going with "home grown players', but I thought he said it was discussed at times, but I never got the impression that he lobbied for that plan.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]


    I said that I was speculating in my post, and no, I don't have any full-proof evidence.  I think there is some evidence out there, however, that suggests that what I'm saying might not be too far off. 

    1.  Theo has said that he dreams of fielding a team with all home grown players.

    2.  When he took over this team, the farm system was shot. Theo made player draft and development a priority.  It was no secret that he valued his comp draft picks and that he help on tightly to his prospects.

    3.  Theo cited philosophical differences on how to run an organization between him and ownership as the reason for leaving in 2005.

    4.  Theo gave an interview after he left for Chicago.  I don't remember his exact wording, but the premise of it was that a GM tries to build a team that will win while operating under the budget allotted him. The GM's emphasis is on winning.  Ownership, OTOH, is concerned with running a business, and making a profit.   They are looking at things from a PR, merchandising, and ticket selling point of view.  Actually winning becomes secondary.  Sure, winning sells tickets.  But going into a season, who is likely to sell more tickets, a name like Carl Crawford or Ryan Kalish?

    FTR, Theo said he completely understands ownerships perspective.  He just said it makes his job more difficult.

    5.  Theo blamed the idea of "The Big Monster" for some of his recent signings, like Lackey.  He takes full responsibility for his actions, but he said that once you get a taste of winning, fans and ownership want more, and want things bigger, ie we want superstars.  In other words, most fans are not going to be happy with no big offseason moves.

    6.  Theo stated that he gave in to pressure the last couple of years from the fans and ownership in signing players to big name contracts, and that he regrets doing so.

    7.  Theo is back to doing things according to his philosophy.  He is tearing down the Cubs, getting rid of whatever big contracts he can, and focusing on building the farm system.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Do you have good reason to think that Lucchino pressed Theo to extend Beckett, to trade for Gonzalez, and to sign Crawford?
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    I have good reason to think that Lucchino pressed Theo into signing big name players, not necessarily those particular names.  I don't think Lucchino said specifically, I want you to sign Crawford or you must extend Beckett.  But I do think that he pressured Theo into bringing "superstars" to Boston. 

    I just explained my reasons for thinking this in my post to Moon.  Again, I fully admit it's speculation, but that is my opinion and I think there's evidence out there to support this.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I said that I was speculating in my post, and no, I don't have any full-proof evidence. I think there is some evidence out there, however, that suggests that what I'm saying might not be too far off. 1. Theo has said that he dreams of fielding a team with all home grown players. 2. When he took over this team, the farm system was shot. Theo made player draft and development a priority. It was no secret that he valued his comp draft picks and that he help on tightly to his prospects. 3. Theo cited philosophical differences on how to run an organization between him and ownership as the reason for leaving in 2005. 4. Theo gave an interview after he left for Chicago. I don't remember his exact wording, but the premise of it was that a GM tries to build a team that will win while operating under the budget allotted him. The GM's emphasis is on winning. Ownership, OTOH, is concerned with running a business, and making a profit. They are looking at things from a PR, merchandising, and ticket selling point of view. Actually winning becomes secondary. Sure, winning sells tickets. But going into a season, who is likely to sell more tickets, a name like Carl Crawford or Ryan Kalish? FTR, Theo said he completely understands ownerships perspective. He just said it makes his job more difficult. 5. Theo blamed the idea of "The Big Monster" for some of his recent signings, like Lackey. He takes full responsibility for his actions, but he said that once you get a taste of winning, fans and ownership want more, and want things bigger, ie we want superstars. In other words, most fans are not going to be happy with no big offseason moves. 6. Theo stated that he gave in to pressure the last couple of years from the fans and ownership in signing players to big name contracts, and that he regrets doing so. 7. Theo is back to doing things according to his philosophy. He is tearing down the Cubs, getting rid of whatever big contracts he can, and focusing on building the farm system.
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi


    Looking back on what Theo has said, remember- this is just Theo's side, he said this... (I added the bold red.)

    “Had we been completely true to our baseball philosophy that we set out and believed in and followed, we probably wouldn’t have made certain moves that we made anyway, moves that, as I look back on them, they were probably moves too much of convenience, of placating elements that shouldn’t have been important,” said Epstein. “Those were my mistakes, and because of that the last couple of years weren’t as successful as the previous seven or so.”

    He said "we" and "our" all along, then said those we "my mistakes". I get no sense he was railroaded or even gently nudged into making those big signings or "moves of too much convenience." He went on to say...

    Q. But you are the one blamed for Lackey and Crawford.

     

    A. “I think so. In 10 years, you’re going to have misses. I do think this. I think taking a step back, if you take a look at what our baseball group was best at, we were best at drafting and developing young talent and finding some undervalued players. I think we were the best drafting team of the decade and all that. That’s a very patient, organic approach. Pure . . .

     

    “We joked about it all the time in the front office. We’d say, ‘Wouldn’t it be great if we could just say, screw free agency altogether. We’re going with a purely home-grown lineup. We’re going with old-school, Branch Rickey-style, pre-free agency, pre-draft whatever?’

     

    “Middlebrooks at third, Lowrie or Iglesias at short, Pedroia at second, Rizzo at first, Lavarnway catching, Ellsbury in center, Reddick in right, Kalish in left. Wouldn’t that have been fun?

     

    “We kind of clung to that in the back of our minds, knowing it was impossible, recognizing that there was an inherent tension between that approach and bigger business. I kind of kick myself for letting my guard down and giving into it, because that might be a better team in some ways and resonate more with the fans than what we ended up with.

     

    “When you make a mistake in the draft, you just keep drafting. You keep finding another player to develop. When you make a mistake in free agency, you’re stuck with it for the duration of the deal and it can be a real impediment.

     

    “Do I feel bad about that? I really do. But in my mind, it doesn’t take away from everything we accomplished and what we established there. Look at last year’s draft, for example. What’s the lasting impact? What [Matt] Barnes and [Jackie] Bradley are doing down below, and that’s going to impact the franchise in a great way. So that’s my answer for the arc of the career.’’

    Of course theo was a big part of re-builing our farm, but he also used many farm pieces left over from Dan D and Port to trade for the likes of Schilling, Beckett, Lowell and others.


    I'm very happy about our prospects. I thank Theo and others for that. I just look at the total trades and signins since 2007 and see a huge nagative. I doubt it was Larry pullong Theo's strings on most of these. We'll probably never know how much influence each had on any one particular move.


    You mentioned that Theo is back to "doing thinsg according to his philosphy", but one could easily say the same about LL with no big FA signings since Theo left.

    I'm not saying you are wrong...just that we don't and may never know.


     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    This paragraph is one that I'm interpreting as Theo giving into the pressure that he felt from ownership.

    “We kind of clung to that in the back of our minds, knowing it was impossible, recognizing that there was an inherent tension between that approach and bigger business. I kind of kick myself for letting my guard down and giving into it, because that might be a better team in some ways and resonate more with the fans than what we ended up with.

     



    Theo did another interview on Felger and Mazz:

     "Theo Epstein discussed his decade as GM of the Red Sox and admitted that his "one regret" during the period was big-name free-agent signings made in response to pressure from fans and management. "

    Here's a direct quote from Theo:

    “You had the realities of being in a big market and being in a really competitive atmosphere and a place that wasn’t that patient,” Epstein said. “Then, on top of that, we had the reality of what we came to call “The Monster"—which was what happened after we won in ’04. There became such an emphasis in the Red Sox organization of doing things bigger, better—pushing to be more marketable, more profitable, not to lose any fans, to keep pushing these numbers. It’s perfectly understandable, and I don’t blame anybody for it. It’s sort of a natural consequence of winning and a natural consequence of being in business."


    It's all open to individual interpretation.  I'm not saying I'm right either, it's just my opinion.  As you said, we don't know, and will probably never know the full truth in who was calling the shots.

    At any rate, they are all part of the management team.  They all share in any blame and in any credit that the FO deserves.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]This paragraph is one that I'm interpreting as Theo giving into the pressure that he felt from ownership. “We kind of clung to that in the back of our minds, knowing it was impossible, recognizing that there was an inherent tension between that approach and bigger business. I kind of kick myself for letting my guard down and giving into it, because that might be a better team in some ways and resonate more with the fans than what we ended up with.   Theo did another interview on Felger and Mazz:  " Theo Epstein discussed his decade as GM of the Red Sox and admitted that his "one regret" during the period was big-name free-agent signings made in response to pressure from fans and management. " Here's a direct quote from Theo: “You had the realities of being in a big market and being in a really competitive atmosphere and a place that wasn’t that patient,” Epstein said. “Then, on top of that, we had the reality of what we came to call “The Monster"—which was what happened after we won in ’04. There became such an emphasis in the Red Sox organization of doing things bigger, better—pushing to be more marketable, more profitable, not to lose any fans, to keep pushing these numbers. It’s perfectly understandable, and I don’t blame anybody for it. It’s sort of a natural consequence of winning and a natural consequence of being in business." It's all open to individual interpretation.  I'm not saying I'm right either, it's just my opinion.  As you said, we don't know, and will probably never know the full truth in who was calling the shots. At any rate, they are all part of the management team.  They all share in any blame and in any credit that the FO deserves.
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]

    I'm not saying you are wrong, and reading into this quote can look like he was being pushed, but I really doubt he was against the Lackey or CC signing, or Beckett extension. Maybe he wasn't as strongly for the deals as LL or others, but I find it hard to believe he was against them. Just my opinion.
     

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