A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Since 2002, not one 31 year-old pitcher who has lost at least 1 mph managed to regain any velocity the following year. In fact, none of those 18 pitchers even managed to hold steady. All 18 lost additional velocity the following year, averaging 1.7 mph less on their fastball in their age-32 season.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Thanks Moon.  I had read that.

    It just doesn't make sense to me that if a pitcher loses velocity because of a mechanical flaw, why he can't regain that velocity if he corrects the flaw.  Not that that is necessarily the reason why any of our pitchers lost velocity.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

     Thanks Moon.  I had read that.

    It just doesn't make sense to me that if a pitcher loses velocity because of a mechanical flaw, why he can't regain that velocity if he corrects the flaw.  Not that that is necessarily the reason why any of our pitchers lost velocity.I think pitchers and pitching coaches do well to correct mechanical flaws in a short time. Bard is still young, and the study is mostly geared towards older pitchers, so maybe bard can regain. Lester might be another story. I'm not sure why he has lost velocity, but if it a mechanical issue and is corrected at some point, perhaps he will up his velocity. With Beckett, I think he is in transition from a power pitcher with a great second pitch and decent change-up, to a finess pitcher. It may take a while, and patience is not a virtue in Red Sox nation.
     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    ...another bump?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Here's a list of the best OPS players in MLB vs LHPs from 2011-2012 (250 PAs or 113 players):

    1-Braun      1.131
    2-McCutch 1.071
    3-Butler      1.020
    4-Wieters   1.013
    5-Holliday  1.004
    6-D. Ortiz     .985
    7-Victorino  .983
    8-Youkilis    .978 
    17- Pedey   .920
    47-AGon      .809
    60-Ellsbury .778
    (note: Kemp with 249 PAs: 1.225)

    vs RHPs (650+ PAs or top 118 players):
    1-Cabrear 1.039
    2-Fileder   1.025
    3-Votto       .995
    4-Bautista  .994
    5-CGon       .967
    6-R. Cano   .964
    7-AGon       .954
    8-Hamilton .951
    9-Braun      .944
    10-Konerko.928
    11-Kemp    .926
    26-McCut  .852
    59-Pedey  .782

     
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Since 2002, not one 31 year-old pitcher who has lost at least 1 mph managed to regain any velocity the following year. In fact, none of those 18 pitchers even managed to hold steady. All 18 lost additional velocity the following year, averaging 1.7 mph less on their fastball in their age-32 season.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I wonder if that also holds true for younger pitchers. Not sure how old Bard is, but I don't think he's 30 yet. If a pitcher is still around in his 30s he probably has thrown a lot of innings and it is logical to assume that that wear and tear along with the natural aging process disallow a return of velocity. I am not sure Bard is in that category. Its possible that if he can regain the release point he had last year he could also regain his form. I am not holding my breath on this, just trying to be optimistic about it. With Beckett, I just don't see that happening. And I think he is too stubborn and foolish to reinvent himself as a control pitcher.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Rays 8, Angels 3
    Matt Moore shrugged off home runs by Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to win his fourth straight decision, and the Tampa Bay Rays completed a four-game sweep of the fading Los Angeles Angels with an 8-3 victory on Sunday. Tampa Bay tagged Zack Greinke (1-2) and outscored the Angels 37-14 in the series - the Rays set a team record for runs in a four-game set, erupting right after Seattle's Felix Hernandez pitched a perfect game against them. Ryan Roberts...
    Full Story  www.foxsports.com


    The Rays manhandled CJ Wilson and then Greinke. Their "terrible" offense came back from from 0-8 yesterday to win the game. Wow!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Not sure I agree that Lester has lost velocity. Ive seen his FB sitting between 94-96 consistantly this season. even as recent as the game I went to when he gave up 11 to the Jays he was hitting 96 on the gun throughout the game...
    His last outing he was more in the 92-94 range, but that happens from time to time...What Im saying is that Im not noticing a consistant loss in velocity from Lester...
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Not sure I agree that Lester has lost velocity. Ive seen his FB sitting between 94-96 consistantly this season. even as recent as the game I went to when he gave up 11 to the Jays he was hitting 96 on the gun throughout the game... His last outing he was more in the 92-94 range, but that happens from time to time...What Im saying is that Im not noticing a consistant loss in velocity from Lester...
    Posted by southpaw777

    It's not as much as I had thought it was, but since 2009-2010, he has slipped maybe 2 mph average.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Not sure I agree that Lester has lost velocity. Ive seen his FB sitting between 94-96 consistantly this season. even as recent as the game I went to when he gave up 11 to the Jays he was hitting 96 on the gun throughout the game... His last outing he was more in the 92-94 range, but that happens from time to time...What Im saying is that Im not noticing a consistant loss in velocity from Lester... Posted by southpaw777 It's not as much as I had thought it was, but since 2009-2010, he has slipped maybe 2 mph average. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Its likely to get worse, given his age. Perhaps he ought to begin to change the way he pitches a bit so he does not suffer what Beckett is going through. I think that Lester can be rehabilitated, perhaps. Not so with Beckett.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Beckett still has wicked movement on his fastball and breaking pitches. It's a tough call.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Beckett still has wicked movement on his fastball and breaking pitches. It's a tough call.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Beckett needs to throw his curveball more. It's his best offspeed pitch. I wonder if he's having blister problems again.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Maybe, but I may be in the minority when I say, I actually think he looked pretty good in his last outing.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Is there anyone left who still thinks we have a chance?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Found this from about a week ago...

    Mike Aviles of the Boston Red Sox has cleared waivers, but a deal between the Red Sox and the A's does not seem likely (h/t Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle).

    The reason that the two sides are struggling to come to a deal is because of the Red Sox's asking price. According to AJ Mass of ESPN (Insider required), the Red Sox want either Brett Anderson or Dan Straily for Aviles.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Found this from about a week ago... Mike Aviles of the Boston Red Sox has cleared waivers, but a deal between the Red Sox and the A's does not seem likely (h/t  Susan Slusser  of the  San Francisco Chronicle ). The reason that the two sides are struggling to come to a deal is because of the Red Sox's asking price. According to  AJ Mass  of ESPN (Insider required), the Red Sox want either Brett Anderson or Dan Straily for Aviles.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    The Athletics instead traded minor league infielder Sean Jamieson for Arizona shortstop Stephen Drew, who has $3.25 million remaining on his contract (including a $1.9 million buyout of a 2013 option).

    Aviles, who remains under team control through 2014, is owed about $300,000 for the remainder of this season.

    The A's no doubt preferred to keep Brett Anderson and Dan Straily.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    The Athletics instead traded minor league infielder Sean Jamieson for Arizona shortstop Stephen Drew, who has $3.25 million remaining on his contract (including a $1.9 million buyout of a 2013 option).

    Aviles, who remains under team control through 2014, is owed about $300,000 for the remainder of this season.

    The A's no doubt preferred to keep Brett Anderson and Dan Straily.

    I missed that trade.

    What are your thoughts on Drew next year?
    If healthy?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Is there anyone left who still thinks we have a chance?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Seriously? 

    It's only the second wild card and the parity in the AL this year that gives even the illusion of an outside chance.  A team 6 games under .500 at this point deserves to be dead and buried.  And the team is playing like it knows it's dead and buried.


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]The Athletics instead traded minor league infielder Sean Jamieson for Arizona shortstop Stephen Drew, who has $3.25 million remaining on his contract (including a $1.9 million buyout of a 2013 option). Aviles, who remains under team control through 2014, is owed about $300,000 for the remainder of this season. The A's no doubt preferred to keep Brett Anderson and Dan Straily. I missed that trade. What are your thoughts on Drew next year? If healthy?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Stephen Drew will be 30 years old on Opening Day and I'm not optimistic that he'll rebound.

    Of course, Drew could finish this season with a flourish for the upstart Athletics.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Sox 6-14 for August compared to 5-16 in September 2011, 23 days into the month.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Stephen Drew will be 30 years old on Opening Day and I'm not optimistic that he'll rebound. Of course, Drew could finish this season with a flourish for the upstart Athletics.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    I agree, and with all the SSs in the Sox system, I doubt we even consider him, but I always thought he had high upside potential.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Is there anyone left who still thinks we have a chance?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    to finish 15 games under .500? Yes
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Can we get the 5th pick in the draft?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Is there anyone left who still thinks we have a chance?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Realistically?  No

    But I'm not giving up hope as long as there is still a mathematical chance.  Personally, I am not in favor of the idea of trying to lose games to better our draft pick.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I am not either Kimmi, but with Papi out and our staff in disarray, I wouldn't be crushed if we get the 5th pick.
     

Share