A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Ex I am not at all sure if Ortiz can generate interest from a contender that he won't leave as a FA at the end of the year. Depending how smart he has been with his money he doesn't have to take the highest bid, anymore than Ray Allen this year from the C's. Only Ortiz knows for sure but he has floated tea leaves that he is not happy with either the management (FO) or the media circus that surrounds the RS. Let's face it, it hasn't been a fun place to play for a long time now.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]
    Anything is now possible in this situation.
    Unless the Sox pull a power hitter out of someone's else hat, they still need Ortiz. It isn't certain yet whether Ross will be retained. Middlebrooks is untested for a full season. Salty/Lavarnway?? Ellsbury back to 2011? Doubtful. 
    Who knows what's in Papi's mind?  He might think it will be more fun next year than it has been. He gets along well with BV -- if BV comes back. 


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Papi has complained about not having support and line-up protection in the past, and now that AGon is gone, Papi may walk. I don't think hehas been happy this year, and this trade hasn't helped.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    [QUOTE]Papi has complained about not having support and line-up protection in the past, and now that AGon is gone, Papi may walk. I don't think hehas been happy this year, and this trade hasn't helped.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Ortiz complains about lots of things. Always has. Who knows at this minute who might bat after him in 2013?
    If Boston offers him two years at good money, there's a good chance he stays. What does he figure to get elsewhere? Where?

     
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    For all we know the team is preparing to sit Lester the rest of the way.

    It is to bad but by the time Buch and Lester turned it around our group of #5 starters finally began to fail en masse. Could not have expected them to keep up strong performances all year.  

    Ortiz I think will get another top offer one year deal from Boston, this way it is totally on him if he wants to leave for some 2 year deal in a place like Cleveland or Tampa.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    [QUOTE]For all we know the team is preparing to sit Lester the rest of the way. It is to bad but by the time Buch and Lester turned it around our group of #5 starters finally began to fail en masse. Could not have expected them to keep up strong performances all year.   Ortiz I think will get another top offer one year deal from Boston, this way it is totally on him if he wants to leave for some 2 year deal in a place like Cleveland or Tampa.
    Posted by EnchiladaT[/QUOTE]I think Papi will get a 3 year deal. 3/30 and he'll get it from the Red Sox.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Eghad Man! Get a hold of yourself!!!! Cool


    moon told you yesterday prior to the incident that Aceves was not going to be here in 2013... citing his uniligness to be a middle reliever again, and using his tantrum in Spring Training as an example. Two strikes and he is out.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    We now have the flexibility to put the team back together.  My major concern is if management is all together for once.  If they are going to back BV, then I think they should prove it by letting him choose all his coaches.  If they don't allow him to do that, then I think BC needs to pick a new manager and in that scenario I would like to see this: a manager and a pitching coach who have been a pitcher and catcher in some combination.  I am astounded that one team is taking these contracts off our hands.  All the Bay Area is abuzz about the Dodgers trying to overtake the Giants, but I wonder about the Dodgers trying to incorportate these guys smoothly into their team.  I think we found out, it isn't always that easy.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    The Dosgers have extended both Kemp and Ethier this year I think.... 

    2) Ethier (RF)
    3) AGon (1B)
    4) Kemp (CF)
    5) H Ramirez (SS)
    5) S Victorino (LF)
    6) A Ellis (CA)


    Wow double an triple wow!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

      My mom always said that if you can't say something nice about somebody or some thing, then don't say anything at all. And the way this season has played out so far has been anything but positive. But this deal has created the possibility for enough positive roster moves to re-energize the team for years to come, if we make the right roster moves.

      I was at every home game in spring training and the disfunctionality of this team was apparent even then. Yes there were sqeeze plays and more bunts (Bobby ball), but they were being executed by the Ciriaco's and the other minor-leaguers, not by the guys in the every-day lineup. There were many games that the regulars were trailing in, but the Gomezes or Ciriaco's won late. In short, none of the regulars appeared to buy into Bobby's game, nor did they seem ready and anxious for the regular season. And 120 games into the season, they still don't!

      Being out from under however many millions in salary allows Ben & Co the freedom to reshape the roster, and there will be even more finacial flexibility without DiceK's money and maybe even Ortiz' money. Here's what I would like to see for a start...

      Jettison DiceK. I know his contract is up anyway, but just say goodbye. He was effective for a couple years, but his aloofness and his painfully slow mound presence does not make him very embracable.

      Ditto Ortiz. I have enjoyed watching him hit here for years, and he will forever be a part of RS history for his roles in two titles, but his whining cannot be good for the team. And a part of me thinks that if he had that multiple-year contract he's always wanted, that his recovery from his injury would have gone much more quickly. Plus, the game seems to be evolving away from full-time DH's and the way that position inhibits a manager.

      Let go of Aceves. Too much drama, too many terrible outings. We need to rid the lockerroom of all head cases.

      Fire Bobby. He can not be blamed for player's performances, and he was given the keys to the new car with way too many restrictions, but he is a shameless self-promoter and too loose-lipped to manage in 2012. It's no wonder that many of the local scribes have his back, since he always gives them plenty to write about, and he does have vast baseball knowledge. But that knowledge would be best put to use back at ESPN or if he really wants to be in the game, as someone's bench coach with little or no access to the media.

      Keep and build around Pedroia, Ellsbury, Ross, Lester, Buchholz and Bailey. Pedroia has taken some heat on this board and in the press as the possible snitch or as a complainer, but he plays the game the right way, he stands up for his teammates, and most of his complaints seem to be about his teammates NOT playing the game correctly. Young players to keep and build around include Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Ciriaco, Tazawa (as a starter), Mortenson, Morales. I'd also retain veterans like Posednik, Aviles, Breslow because they are pros who play the game hard. I would use the time left this season to get a long look at Gomez, Iglesias, Lavarnway and Kalish. 

      Defense has got to be a priority. I like Ross, but his spot should be left field as he cost last night's game with poor plays in right. Why was he there and Posednik in left?? Shouldn't the better fielder be in right in Fenway?

      Moon put together a very impressive list of available players in either free agency or through trades, but the next six weeks should be spent seeing who we currently have that can be ready to help next season and beyond. And once we have a better idea of who in our system can help right away, then we fill in the holes through trades and free agency. We already know we will need one top of the rotation starter and at least one big middle-of-the-order bat, but let's get a better idea of what we already have.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]  My mom always said that if you can't say something nice about somebody or some thing, then don't say anything at all. And the way this season has played out so far has been anything but positive. But this deal has created the possibility for enough positive roster moves to re-energize the team for years to come, if we make the right roster moves.   I was at every home game in spring training and the disfunctionality of this team was apparent even then. Yes there were sqeeze plays and more bunts (Bobby ball), but they were being executed by the Ciriaco's and the other minor-leaguers, not by the guys in the every-day lineup. There were many games that the regulars were trailing in, but the Gomezes or Ciriaco's won late. In short, none of the regulars appeared to buy into Bobby's game, nor did they seem ready and anxious for the regular season. And 120 games into the season, they still don't!   Being out from under however many millions in salary allows Ben & Co the freedom to reshape the roster, and there will be even more finacial flexibility without DiceK's money and maybe even Ortiz' money. Here's what I would like to see for a start...   Jettison DiceK. I know his contract is up anyway, but just say goodbye. He was effective for a couple years, but his aloofness and his painfully slow mound presence does not make him very embracable.   Ditto Ortiz. I have enjoyed watching him hit here for years, and he will forever be a part of RS history for his roles in two titles, but his whining cannot be good for the team. And a part of me thinks that if he had that multiple-year contract he's always wanted, that his recovery from his injury would have gone much more quickly. Plus, the game seems to be evolving away from full-time DH's and the way that position inhibits a manager.   Let go of Aceves. Too much drama, too many terrible outings. We need to rid the lockerroom of all head cases.   Fire Bobby. He can not be blamed for player's performances, and he was given the keys to the new car with way too many restrictions, but he is a shameless self-promoter and too loose-lipped to manage in 2012. It's no wonder that many of the local scribes have his back, since he always gives them plenty to write about, and he does have vast baseball knowledge. But that knowledge would be best put to use back at ESPN or if he really wants to be in the game, as someone's bench coach with little or no access to the media.   Keep and build around Pedroia, Ellsbury, Ross, Lester, Buchholz and Bailey. Pedroia has taken some heat on this board and in the press as the possible snitch or as a complainer, but he plays the game the right way, he stands up for his teammates, and most of his complaints seem to be about his teammates NOT playing the game correctly. Young players to keep and build around include Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Ciriaco, Tazawa (as a starter), Mortenson, Morales. I'd also retain veterans like Posednik, Aviles, Breslow because they are pros who play the game hard. I would use the time left this season to get a long look at Gomez, Iglesias, Lavarnway and Kalish.    Defense has got to be a priority. I like Ross, but his spot should be left field as he cost last night's game with poor plays in right. Why was he there and Posednik in left?? Shouldn't the better fielder be in right in Fenway?   Moon put together a very impressive list of available players in either free agency or through trades, but the next six weeks should be spent seeing who we currently have that can be ready to help next season and beyond. And once we have a better idea of who in our system can help right away, then we fill in the holes through trades and free agency. We already know we will need one top of the rotation starter and at least one big middle-of-the-order bat, but let's get a better idea of what we already have.
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]

    Agree.  I'll add this...

    I'd like Ross in LF and DH.

    We should stop moving successful pitchers into different roles.

    We should not expect Ciriaco to be an above .300 OBP player, but he still should get a long long look this year and next ST/early season at least.

    We should avoid mega-longterm deals, and look for more Ross-type deals this winter as decent bridge players to Bradley, Barnes, Brentz, Bogaerts, Shaw, Swihart, Cecchini (to 1B?) and others...

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

     I'd like Ross in LF and DH . 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    2012 vs RHP    .748
    2011 - 2009 vs RHP    .720


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Agree.  I'll add this... I'd like Ross in LF and DH . We should stop moving successful pitchers into different roles. We should not expect Ciriaco to be an above .300 OBP player, but he still should get a long long look this year and next ST/early season at least. We should avoid mega-longterm deals, and look for more Ross-type deals this winter as decent bridge players to Bradley, Barnes, Brentz, Bogaerts, Shaw, Swihart, Cecchini (to 1B?) and others...
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Moon, I don't think you're allowed to use the word "bridge" in any post about the sox;)  I left Doubront off my list (unintentionally) earlier of young players I want to see more of and we can build around. I hate to make McClure seem like the fall guy here, although the Sox' brass seems okay with that, but someone has to reach these young pitchers about keeping their composure, staying with pitches that are working, pitching to contact so that you're not at 100 pitches in the fourth and fifth inning, and throwing strike one!
     Also one of the reasons I'm all for phasing out Ortiz is to use Ross, Gomez, off-day catchers or whomever as the DH. All good points by you, as usual.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    tom, I am aware of his struggle vs RHP, but he's still way better than what CC and others have given us in LF recently, and he kills LHPs. He is also well suited for Fenway, but does create issues when we are on the road (hitting and fielding).

    Let me ask you this, are these numbers decent for a LF'er/DH?

    .255  18  78 (47 2Bs)

    These are Ross' 2012 numbers vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs.


    How about these numbers?

    .233  22  75

    These are his numbers on the road pro-rated to 650.


    While these numbers are not great, they are decent enough when you consider we play half our games at home and about 35% of our games vs LHPs. Check out these pro-rated splits...

    vs LHPs: .327  62  171
    Home:    .308  39  131

    With our issues vs LHPs, this guys fits our team as well as we fit his profile.

    FYI:
    career at 650 PAs:

    vs RHPs: .253  18  73   (38 2B+3Bs)
    vs LHPs: .288  42 125  (42 2B+3Bs) 

    He night get $20M/3 this winter. I think that would be a fair deal for him and us. (Maybe $15M/2)

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    He night get $20M/3 this winter. I think that would be a fair deal for him and us. (Maybe $15M/2)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    A good case for keeping him can be made, and I must declare an interest.  As my avatar suggests I want to see JCL get a shot next year.  I have read that for rule-5 reasons he won't be a call up next week.   

    CR:
    Pros:

    1.  Has hit well at Fenway
    2. Kills LHP

    Cons:

    1. Which is the real CR, '09  .790     '10  .735    '11  .730    '12  .859
    2. He is a platoon player that might get starter money.
    3. Last night was about the tenth time I saw him misplay a ball that JD would have made look easy (but his RF UZR is good this year, terrible last year). 

    I go with the larger sample and think 2012 is an outlier.  I worry he will be signed just like Scutaro following a career year and revert.    


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]He night get $20M/3 this winter. I think that would be a fair deal for him and us. (Maybe $15M/2) Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] A good case for keeping him can be made, and I must declare an interest.  As my avatar suggests I want to see JCL get a shot next year.  I have read that for rule-5 reasons he won't be a call up next week.    CR: Pros: 1.  Has hit well at Fenway 2. Kills LHP Cons: 1. Which is the real CR, '09  .790     '10  .735    '11  .730    '12  .859 2. He is a platoon player that might get starter money. 3. Last night was about the tenth time I saw him misplay a ball that JD would have made look easy (but his RF UZR is good this year, terrible last year).  I go with the larger sample and think 2012 is an outlier.  I worry he will be signed just like Scutaro following a career year and revert.    
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    "Hide" him in LF at home, play him at DH on the road, sit him vs tough RHPs, and he'll give us a good 500 PAs with numbers worthy of $15M/2 or $20M/3.

    I like JCL as well. He could play LF when Ross is at DH or on the bench. 

    I'm not crying for Ross. $20M/3 is a lot for a "platoon player", but his overall numbers vs RHPs are decent enough to make him a near FT player. I'm actually more worried about his road numbers than his numbers vs RHPs.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Jid, I think you've got some good ideas there.  I support them all but one.  I would be for keeping Aceves.  I think he's not really a closer and got stuck with that role when the team got overtaken by events and a lack of flexibility because of big contracts.  I think Moon is right, put him back in his successful long reliever role and he'll be great and we won't have a head case.  I think he blows hot then is ok. I'm glad to see you think Ciriaco could be a starter.  I for one don't think he gets enough respect.  Even today I read somewhere "Will Middlebrooks, the only bright light of 2012."  Why hasn't Ciriaco been great this summer?  He's got a great BA, has hit .500 against the Yankees, steals bases, and has made some amazing defensive plays.

    Where is Boom?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    We seem to be evaluating players for next year.  I am worrried about Salty and Khalish.  Salty's bat disappeared as the summer went on.  He went from being very confident and hitting bombs to looking terrible on the high outside fastball and the low outside breaking stuff.  I would like to see a catcher hit .250-.265 but I'm not sure his present numbers justify his defense.  Also, Khalish has had opportunities for two summers now, but he hasn't really seemed to grab his chance.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

     Why hasn't Ciriaco been great this summer?

    Maybe because he only has 140 PAs.

    I love Pedro, and I think he has a lot of promise, but I wouldn't pencil him in as our FT SS next season based on just 140 PAs. The kid had a sub .300 OBP in over 3,500 minor league PAs.

    His glove looks very nice as does his range. We have a few weeks to see more, and next ST as well. I hope this kid sticks. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : A good case for keeping him can be made, and I must declare an interest.  As my avatar suggests I want to see JCL get a shot next year.  I have read that for rule-5 reasons he won't be a call up next week.    CR: Pros: 1.  Has hit well at Fenway 2. Kills LHP Cons: 1. Which is the real CR, '09  .790     '10  .735    '11  .730    '12  .859 2. He is a platoon player that might get starter money. 3. Last night was about the tenth time I saw him misplay a ball that JD would have made look easy (but his RF UZR is good this year, terrible last year).  I go with the larger sample and think 2012 is an outlier.  I worry he will be signed just like Scutaro following a career year and revert.     Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE] "Hide" him in LF at home, play him at DH on the road, sit him vs tough RHPs, and he'll give us a good 500 PAs with numbers worthy of $15M/2 or $20M/3. I like JCL as well. He could play LF when Ross is at DH or on the bench.  I'm not crying for Ross. $20M/3 is a lot for a "platoon player", but his overall numbers vs RHPs are decent enough to make him a near FT player. I'm actually more worried about his road numbers than his numbers vs RHPs.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon I agree that he is a near FT player, but doesn't the Scutaro comparison worry you.  2013-15 Ross might be just like he was from 2009-11.

    I wrote at points in '12, when they were healthy and hot to trade Salty, Ross, and Ortiz.  I wish Ben did. 

    How about Youk at 1B in '13?



     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : "Hide" him in LF at home, play him at DH on the road, sit him vs tough RHPs, and he'll give us a good 500 PAs with numbers worthy of $15M/2 or $20M/3. I like JCL as well. He could play LF when Ross is at DH or on the bench.  I'm not crying for Ross. $20M/3 is a lot for a "platoon player", but his overall numbers vs RHPs are decent enough to make him a near FT player. I'm actually more worried about his road numbers than his numbers vs RHPs. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Moon I agree that he is a near FT player, but doesn't the Scutaro comparison worry you.  2013-15 Ross might be just like he was from 2009-11. I wrote at points in '12, when they were healthy and hot to trade Salty, Ross, and Ortiz.  I wish Ben did.  How about Youk at 1B in '13?
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Not if BV is still here.

    I think we go after Morneau as a 1 season bridge to Travis Shaw or a FA to be.

    I think we go all out to trade for Justin Upton.

    I think TB trades Shields this winter, and we should offer them a lot to try and convince them to keep him in the division. They need catching (Lava/Swihart?), 1B (Gomez/ Shaw?), an Upton replacement (Kalish/Sweeney?), and some offense from the middle IF (Aviles/Ciriaco?).

    If we could get Shields, Upton and Morneau, and then sign Ross and maybe Marcum, we could contend in 2013.

    I seriously doubt we deplete our minors to get these three guys, but getting the young Upton makes sense.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Moon I agree that he is a near FT player, but doesn't the Scutaro comparison worry you.  2013-15 Ross might be just like he was from 2009-11. I wrote at points in '12, when they were healthy and hot to trade Salty, Ross, and Ortiz.  I wish Ben did.  How about Youk at 1B in '13? Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE] Not if BV is still here. I think we go after Morneau as a 1 season bridge to Travis Shaw or a FA to be. I think we go all out to trade for Justin Upton. I think TB trades Shields this winter, and we should offer them a lot to try and convince them to keep him in the division. They need catching (Lava/Swihart?), 1B (Gomez/ Shaw?), an Upton replacement (Kalish/Sweeney?), and some offense from the middle IF (Aviles/Ciriaco?). If we could get Shields, Upton and Morneau, and then sign Ross and maybe Marcum, we could contend in 2013. I seriously doubt we deplete our minors to get these three guys, but getting the young Upton makes sense.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Friedman is probably the best GM in the game. I doubt he will allow us to get Shields unless he pillages our franchise. As for competing in 2013, I am content to build a team that can compete in 2014 by stockpiling young pitching talent then buying bats gradually both next year and the year after. That can be done. I am not at all sure that Cherington, who was trained by Epstein, is the man for the job.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Friedman is probably the best GM in the game. I doubt he will allow us to get Shields unless he pillages our franchise. As for competing in 2013, I am content to build a team that can compete in 2014 by stockpiling young pitching talent then buying bats gradually both next year and the year after. That can be done. I am not at all sure that Cherington, who was trained by Epstein, is the man for the job.

    Wow Pumps, twice in one day I have agreed with you!

    I agree that 2014 and beyond is our best chance, but I brought up the above scenario to show those who hated the trade that the flexibility it provided could allow us to improve over this year's club in just one year, if that's what we choose to do. 

    I think upper management will not want to officially write off 203, so they may make a few targeted short-term signings to bolster TV revenues, but won't seriously look to go for a ring until, at the earlies,t winter 2013-14.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Here's what bleacher reports has to say about rubby de larosa.
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1311241-rubby-de-la-rosa-full-scouting-report-on-prospect-dealt-in-red-sox-blockbuster

    And Chris Hatfield on all the guys we got from the Dodgers:
    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/22224/soxprospects-loney-webster-de-la-rosa-et-al
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Jid, I think you've got some good ideas there.  I support them all but one.  I would be for keeping Aceves.  I think he's not really a closer and got stuck with that role when the team got overtaken by events and a lack of flexibility because of big contracts.  I think Moon is right, put him back in his successful long reliever role and he'll be great and we won't have a head case.  I think he blows hot then is ok. I'm glad to see you think Ciriaco could be a starter.  I for one don't think he gets enough respect.  Even today I read somewhere "Will Middlebrooks, the only bright light of 2012."  Why hasn't Ciriaco been great this summer?  He's got a great BA, has hit .500 against the Yankees, steals bases, and has made some amazing defensive plays. Where is Boom?
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]
    Ciriaco was far and away the best player on the roster in Spring Training. I know that is was "only" spring training, but the kid has skills. He makes young player mistakes, missed a hit and run sign last night and made a careless error today, but the plusses outweigh the minuses right now. Is he a long-term solution? That remains to be seen.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Ciriaco was far and away the best player on the roster in Spring Training. I know that is was "only" spring training, but the kid has skills. He makes young player mistakes, missed a hit and run sign last night and made a careless error today, but the plusses outweigh the minuses right now. Is he a long-term solution? That remains to be seen.
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]

    He certainly deserves a shot and a long long look.

    What a steal.  The Ben bashers should take note.

     
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