A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Trade Padilla on waivers if possible. Trade Ross as well. Stockpile prospects.

    I'd use the rest of the season to gain knowledge on these players:

    C Salty (test his endurance)
    DH/C Lava (see if he can hit and worry about his defense later)
    1B Gomez (can he be in the 2013 mix?)
    2B Pedey  (give Ciriaco a few games here)
    3B Ciriaco (give Aviles some time here to ready him for a '13 utility role.)
    SS Iggy (time to give him a 6 week look)
    LF Nava & Linares (September call-up)
    CF Ellsbury (Find his groove or prove he is still good to maybe trade him.)
    RF Pods & Linares or Kalish

    SP Buchholtz (keep the groove)
    SP Lester (find the groove)
    SP Morales (can he be a quality starter?)
    SP Mortensen
    SP Tazawa or Stewart

    CL Bailey
    RP Breslow
    RP Aceves
    RP Doubront (he's started enough and needs to limit his IP to 135ish)
    RP Miller
    RP Melancon
    RP Beato/Carpenter/Bard/Wilson

    Maybe have a look at Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz and Travis Shaw.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Moon, I agree.  Most of the low cost players BC picked up fulfilled their roles and contributed.  I don't get bashing him.  
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    We should increase the low level FA signings and find more Ciriacos...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Dice-K!!!!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Friedman is probably the best GM in the game. I doubt he will allow us to get Shields unless he pillages our franchise. As for competing in 2013, I am content to build a team that can compete in 2014 by stockpiling young pitching talent then buying bats gradually both next year and the year after. That can be done. I am not at all sure that Cherington, who was trained by Epstein, is the man for the job. Wow Pumps, twice in one day I have agreed with you! I agree that 2014 and beyond is our best chance, but I brought up the above scenario to show those who hated the trade that the flexibility it provided could allow us to improve over this year's club in just one year, if that's what we choose to do.  I think upper management will not want to officially write off 203, so they may make a few targeted short-term signings to bolster TV revenues, but won't seriously look to go for a ring until, at the earlies,t winter 2013-14.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Despite all the negativity I think that I have a fair grasp of what it will take to turn this franchise around. In a word, its "pitching". Not really that complicated. Pitching and defense wins rings. You need a modicum of timely hitting too, for sure, but if you look at what our pitching has done since it peaked in 07 you will see the problem very clearly. I also believed in getting highly priced SP and overpaying them to sign long term contracts; no more. There are very few pitchers I would sign long term now: Verlander (and he's taken); Felix. Not many more. We will need to stockpile our pitching prospects because the more we have the higher the likelihood that some will work out well for us. Bats are easy to find.
    I expect some adminspeak about being competitive in 2013, but I think thats all talk. It would be refreshing if our FO told the fans that this is a rebuilding year but that they can expect better things in 2014. Its amazing to me what a mess Epstein left behind and yet what kind of regard some fans have for him.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Despite all the negativity I think that I have a fair grasp of what it will take to turn this franchise around. In a word, its "pitching". Not really that complicated. Pitching and defense wins rings. You need a modicum of timely hitting too, for sure, but if you look at what our pitching has done since it peaked in 07 you will see the problem very clearly. I also believed in getting highly priced SP and overpaying them to sign long term contracts; no more. There are very few pitchers I would sign long term now: Verlander (and he's taken); Felix. Not many more. We will need to stockpile our pitching prospects because the more we have the higher the likelihood that some will work out well for us. Bats are easy to find. I expect some adminspeak about being competitive in 2013, but I think thats all talk. It would be refreshing if our FO told the fans that this is a rebuilding year but that they can expect better things in 2014. Its amazing to me what a mess Epstein left behind and yet what kind of regard some fans have for him.
    Posted by pumpsie-green

    I have always said upgrade the staff from the top not the bottom, but I think we need to wait out this FA class. Look to make trades for young starters under team control beyond 2014, but don't do anything stupid. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Despite all the negativity I think that I have a fair grasp of what it will take to turn this franchise around. In a word, its "pitching". Not really that complicated. Pitching and defense wins rings. You need a modicum of timely hitting too, for sure, but if you look at what our pitching has done since it peaked in 07 you will see the problem very clearly. I also believed in getting highly priced SP and overpaying them to sign long term contracts; no more. There are very few pitchers I would sign long term now: Verlander (and he's taken); Felix. Not many more. We will need to stockpile our pitching prospects because the more we have the higher the likelihood that some will work out well for us. Bats are easy to find. I expect some adminspeak about being competitive in 2013, but I think thats all talk. It would be refreshing if our FO told the fans that this is a rebuilding year but that they can expect better things in 2014. Its amazing to me what a mess Epstein left behind and yet what kind of regard some fans have for him.
    Posted by pumpsie-green

    I have always said upgrade the staff from the top not the bottom, but I think we need to wait out this FA class. Look to make trades for young starters under team control beyond 2014, but don't do anything stupid. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Moon, this is what I feel like doing today but tomorrow may be a different story.

      -Trade Jose Iglesias for pitching and start Pedro Ciriacco at SS.  I don't think 
        Jose is going to hit enough and Ciriacco does. 

      -Dump BV and add Brad Mills and bring back Farrell after next year.  It's not all
       Bobby's fault but he seems to mess up situations without trying.

      -Trade Salty, Loney, one reliever (and maybe add Iggy to this trade) for
        pitching and Hector Sanchez.  Maybe do a three way trade here too but SF
        needs a 1st baseman/hitter in a big way and maybe a reliever too.  Everyone
        out here is going mental over "LA going ahead of us..." so it might be a nice
        time to strike.  I have promoted Salty but I'm not sure he gets better than 
        this.  I liked his early power but once again he seems to have run out of gas
        and unless he can bat .250-.275, I'd rather have someone else.

      -Offer Ells 4 at 20 mil and if he takes it fine.  If he doesn't, trade him for 
       pitching.  Let someone else pay him.  One player doesn't make a team and
       we've seen how long term contracts work out.  Is he the guy we're seeing
       now or the guy we saw last year?  He's right at his prime.  I think four years 
       would be good.

      --I'd offer Ortiz 1 at 14 or 2 at 24.  But I'm leaning towards, "It's time for a 
         new beginning."  This injury can't be good for someone his age, and is he 
         going to be injury prone now, thus getting less for your money.  And like
         last year, is anyone else out there going to pay him more?  I read he said
         taking this contract was embarrassing.  I love David but I don't want 
         another Lowell situation.



     
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Crit, I doubt SF takes that deal, and they'd all have to clear waivers to make it happen.

    2 years ago, I said we should trade Iggy if we are not going to play him. He's made over $6M the last 3 yrs for what?

    I'd like to keep him, even if just as the utility late inning defensive guy, but for some reason Sox management won't give him a chance. 

    I'm not sold on Ciriaco yet, but I'm getting close. I think Iggy stays in case Ciriaco slumps badly. To me, the real SS issue is what to do with all the SS prospects we have. Are they blocked? Do we keep them at SS in the minors of move some to other areas? Could Bogaert play 1B, and for that matter, should/will we slide Cecchini to 1B?

    Right now we have all these SS prospects/players:

    Aviles
    Ciriaco
    Iggy
    Bogaerts
    Marrero
    Vinicio
    T W Lin
    Meneses

    Then there is 3B (1B):
    Middlebrooks
    (Aviles/Ciriaco/Bogaerts?/other SS to 3B?)
    Valencia
    Gomez
    Cecchini
    Travis Shaw
    De Jesus
    A LaRoche
    Vitek

    There is a lot of promise here, and I dare say, too much for just the IF, when we have such a great need at starting pitcher and perhaps power OF'er who hits RH'd. I think we need to make some hard choices, and I hope the right ones, and decide who to deal and who to keep. I'm oversimplifying here, but we need to make some 2 or 3 for one deals to move from quantity to quality.


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    From another thread...

    Was AGon really a steal at $22M? Is he really that irreplaceable at that cost? (Yes, this year's 1B FA class is weak.)  $22M can go a long way. It can get an ace. As much as I doubt Greinke is the answer, signing him woud go a long way towards making up for AGon's loss. (I am not for signing him or saying we might sign him, but I am just making a value comparison.)

    Losing AGon from the line-up is huge. It will effect those who hit around him as well. He will be sorely missed. Others have made the point, and it is a good one, that no matter how well AGon did next year, it would have been hard for us to become the favorites to win it all next year, even if we spent the $28M or so, (not counting Papi) we'd have had to stay even with this year's budget wisely. AGon was signed longer than 2013, so he may perhaps be more missed in 2014 and beyong than next year, but he will be aging by then as well. 

    It really comes down to the fact that we shed the remainder of CC and Punto's deals of about $108M for only $12M. I know it's hard for many fans to look at a $96M dollar savings as a positive thing for the good of the team and not (just)  the owner. The reality is that we have a player contract budget, like it or not, justify it or not. That's the way it is and will always be. We will continue to be big spenders, but with limits. That $96M from just CC and Punto is an astounding amount that even a bumbling GM can turn into something better than these two, especially and hopefully by learning from past mistakes.  Then there is the Beckett deal. He may or not pitch great from now until the end of 2014 (his last contract year), but I'm tired of waiting, praying, and continually being dissapointed. Even if his savings turns out to be a wash as he does great with LA, we can't lose by getting him out of here. All of this astronomically outweighs the loss of AGon, especially when you consider his 422M deal. I can see if we lost a guy like AGon who was signed at $5M a year for 5 more years, but we lost a guy who was just about earning what he was getting paid and maybe a little more, so in a financial sense, we only lost the net value of AGon vs his salary, assuming we eventually spend his money saved wisely.

    To be quite frank, I'm just as happy with a Linares/Nava platoon in LF than CC next year for free (no contract cost). I'd rather have Doubront, Morales, Tazawa, and Mortensen fighting for Beckett's slot than Beckett back with us next year for free, and I've been one of Beckett's strongest supporters on this board for over a year. To me, we traded Gonzo and saved about $250M. AGon's value to this team can be replaced with $250M even if we had the worst GM in MLB. Again, I'll say, I'd love this deal even if we got no prospects in return. The nice aspect of this deal is that we did get some decent prospects, one or two of which should contribute in the next 1-3 years.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    After Salty's single tonight, he is now 7 for his last 21 (.333) with 2 HRs.

    Maybe the whole "endurance" issue might have to be re-examined soon.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Moon, this is what I feel like doing today but tomorrow may be a different story.   -Trade Jose Iglesias for pitching and start Pedro Ciriacco at SS.  I don't think      Jose is going to hit enough and Ciriacco does.    -Dump BV and add Brad Mills and bring back Farrell after next year.  It's not all    Bobby's fault but he seems to mess up situations without trying.   -Trade Salty, Loney, one reliever (and maybe add Iggy to this trade) for     pitching and Hector Sanchez.  Maybe do a three way trade here too but SF     needs a 1st baseman/hitter in a big way and maybe a reliever too.  Everyone     out here is going mental over "LA going ahead of us..." so it might be a nice     time to strike.  I have promoted Salty but I'm not sure he gets better than      this.  I liked his early power but once again he seems to have run out of gas     and unless he can bat .250-.275, I'd rather have someone else.   -Offer Ells 4 at 20 mil and if he takes it fine.  If he doesn't, trade him for     pitching.  Let someone else pay him.  One player doesn't make a team and    we've seen how long term contracts work out.  Is he the guy we're seeing    now or the guy we saw last year?  He's right at his prime.  I think four years     would be good.   --I'd offer Ortiz 1 at 14 or 2 at 24.  But I'm leaning towards, "It's time for a       new beginning."  This injury can't be good for someone his age, and is he       going to be injury prone now, thus getting less for your money.  And like      last year, is anyone else out there going to pay him more?  I read he said      taking this contract was embarrassing.  I love David but I don't want       another Lowell situation.  
    Posted by Critter23[/QUO
    BV will probably return.
    Ciriaco has yet to establish himself as a full-time ML player.
    Find another catcher hitting 250-275 with 22 homers and with vastly improved defense.
    Odds are that if Ellsbury isn't traded he will test FA.
    Until Ortiz stops hitting, he's the best one the Sox have. Two years at something like 24 would probably do it. Boston very much needs his punch.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Odds are that if Ellsbury isn't traded he will test FA.

    I think the Sox would take a big hit on revenues if they trade Ellsbury, unless they sign a big name FA (Hamilton?) or trade for a big name player this winter.

    From a purely baseball standpoint, it makes sense to me to trade Ellsbury this winter while the value added comp pick if and when he walks next winter is attached. I realize that comp pick has value for us as well, but I seriously doubt we can or will strongly compete for a ring in 2013. Based on this fact alone, what's the purpose of keeping Ellsbury to gain just one comp pick? Even if he hits 40 HRs and bats .350, we are going nowhere in 2013, unless we spend huge this winter (doubtful).

    There may even be a team out there that views the Dodger's strategy as a new trend, and take Lackey as part of the CC deal (SF? LAD again? Cincy? Seattle?)

    Until Ortiz stops hitting, he's the best one the Sox have. Two years at something like 24 would probably do it. Boston very much needs his punch.

    He needs to retire as a Red Sox. I doubt he will get much from any other team, just as last year's brief "test the waters" episode showed him. Since we don't appear to be up against the luxury tax limit over the near future, we don't need to get too creative with Papi. I can see another one year deal of overpaying to avoid the risk of a steep decline and a waisted 2014 cost. However, I think $24/2 is a better bet than $16M/1. Maybe we can see $14M for 2013, a club option of $10M for 2014 with a $2M buyout, making it essentially a $16M/1 or $24M/2 deal but with some protection built in for the club.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In response to A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    Odds are that if Ellsbury isn't traded he will test FA.

    I think the Sox would take a big  on revenues if they trade Ellsbury, unless they sign a big name FA (Hamilton?) or trade for a big name player this winter.

    From a purely baseball standpoint, it makes sense to me to trade Ellsbury this winter while the value added comp pick if and when he walks next winter is attached. I realize that comp pick has value for us as well, but I seriously doubt we can or will strongly compete for a ring in 2013. Based on this fact alone, what's the purpose of keeping Ellsbury to gain just one comp pick? Even if he hits 40 HRs and bats .350, we are going nowhere in 2013, unless we spend huge this winter (doubtful).

    There may even be a team out there that views the Dodger's strategy as a new trend, and take Lackey as part of the CC deal (SF? LAD again? Cincy? Seattle?)

    Until Ortiz stops hitting, he's the best one the Sox have. Two years at something like 24 would probably do it. Boston very much needs his punch.

    He needs to retire as a Red Sox. I doubt he will get much from any other team, just as last year's brief "test the waters" episode showed him. Since we don't appear to be up against the luxury tax limit over the near future, we don't need to get too creative with Papi. I can see another one year deal of overpaying to avoid the risk of a steep decline and a waisted 2014 cost. However, I think $24/2 is a better bet than $16M/1. Maybe we can see $14M for 2013, a club option of $10M for 2014 with a $2M buyout, making it essentially a $16M/1 or $24M/2 deal but with some protection built in for the club.

     



    Re: Ellsbury: I agree. He should be traded if we can acquire a good pitching prospect or prospects for him. Bradley is waiting in the wings, and Borass is Ellsbury's agent. I would not want to deal with Boras when Bradley is nearly here.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    One thing is certain to me even some naive posters really believe otherwise.  There is NO way we can get by with James Loney as our first baseman past this year.  He has no power, doesn't bat for an average anymore, is totally worthless against left handed pitching and brings nothing in the way of fire and drive to the Red Sox.  If he failed miserably in Los Angeles, he will fail even more miserably in Boston.  Besides, with him at first it puts a gaping zero in our lineup, and, keep in mind, if we decide to go with Iglesias at SS next season we have a total zero at the plate.  The kid simply cannot bat a baseball with any regularity.   That means you have two duds in the lineup from our infield along, and don't anyone tell me we could carry two weak hitters in the lineup.  We cannot; unless you have drop dead pitching you need every da#n bat you can get in the lineup, and as always, isn't there always one or two others who you are counting on for hitting punch having off years?  That will not work in the AL East---and if they are trying to peddle Ellsbury for pitching our hitting takes even a bigger knock with him not in it.

    Yes we need pitching, two good starters to be sure, but my take is to see if the White Sox and Rays are going to pick up the options on Peavy and Shields.  Maybe we could sign one or both of them.  If we trade for pitching and it costs us an Ellsbury or some top hitting prospect, Iglesias an Loney must not be part of the lineup.  I live in the Los Angeles are and I saw Loney hundreds of times on TV.  He is a total dud; he will impress you for a short time but he is a lousy hitter and in no way can Cherington be that stupid to resign him this winter.  We need a stronger hitter at first base.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Loney will not be our 1Bman next year no matter which way we decide to go: competein 2013  or shoot for 2014 & beyong.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 56redsox. Show 56redsox's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In response to A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:

    Loney will not be our 1Bman next year no matter which way we decide to go: competein 2013  or shoot for 2014 & beyong.



    I Agree, Not With 4 Tators, No Power.................................
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Even Salty would hhit better at 1B than Loney.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    It appears many posters are having difficulty finding or posting on this site.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In response to A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:

    Loney will not be our 1Bman next year no matter which way we decide to go: competein 2013  or shoot for 2014 & beyong.



    Gomez is now at .327/.848. He was the league MVP at Pawtucket. I think he is making a strong case for the job at 1B. No need to go out and sign a pricey FA for next year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Just my opinion but:

    1) I believe we only need to make Ortiz a "qualifying offer" to potentially get a pick from him if he walks. I don't think that we have a lot of risk to offer him a contract next year and I still hope he walks. 

    2) I don't see Gomez as "acceptable" defensively but I do see him as a potentially decent DH. I'm not sure we can re sign him at a cheap price though. He was a minor league FA right? It's not guaranteed he can come back. Certainly a good shot though.

    3) I vote for Cherington as the GM of the year right now, just on the strength of that deal. The guts it took. Moving Crawford's and Beckett's contracts, not to mention Punto's with very little cash back. Phenomenal. It goes to show just how marketable Adrian was in the largely hispanic LA market, and the perceived value of Adrian's contract.

    4) I believe we have effectively reset the "luxury" tax issues for this team in 2012, which is great. That one deal was huge on so many levels. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    All that said, we may not be in a position to make the playoffs for years. It's not hopeless but it's also not likely we make the playoffs in 2013. I'm ok with that. We should plan for the long haul. Maybe more FA talent is available in 2014 and some of our top prospects arrive at that time ( Bradley, Brentz, Barnes, Bogaerts ). A year or 2 after that maybe Swihart, Cechinni...etc. It's our best shot. We have now adjusted to the new CBA and I for one am glad they did it. Our position before the big trade was potential mediocrity for many years.

    A position the Yanks might find themselves in a year or 2. Cherington had an opportunity he wasn't going to see again for a long time. He made a solid decision. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Just my opinion but: 

    1) I believe we only need to make Ortiz a "qualifying offer" to potentially get a pick from him if he walks. I don't think that we have a lot of risk to offer him a contract next year and I still hope he walks.  

    Someone would have to sign him as well, and they would lose a pick. Remember VTek. (Not saying nobody will offer Papi a deal, but just sayin')

    2) I don't see Gomez as "acceptable" defensively but I do see him as a potentially decent DH. I'm not sure we can re sign him at a cheap price though. He was a minor league FA right? It's not guaranteed he can come back. Certainly a good shot though. 

    Between him and Lava, we may be saying bye-bye to Papi. Sad, but true. Papi should retire here, if anyone deserves to, it is him.

    3) I vote for Cherington as the GM of the year right now, just on the strength of that deal. The guts it took. Moving Crawford's and Beckett's contracts, not to mention Punto's with very little cash back. Phenomenal. It goes to show just how marketable Adrian was in the largely hispanic LA market, and the perceived value of Adrian's contract. 

    He broke the longest standing idiotic paradigm in all of sports: "You can't fire the players!"

    4) I believe we have effectively reset the "luxury" tax issues for this team in 2012, which is great. That one deal was huge on so many levels. 

    We probably won't get to the limit until maybe 2014, but you are right, this is a huge step towards future financial stability and flexibility.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I'm waiting for the short sample guys to get a hold of this:

    AGon with LAD: .250/.348/.400/.748
    Loney with Bos: .375/.412/.562/.974 (after 6 innings tonight)
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    We are cruising for a top 10 draft pick from losing so many games. The best draft position in over 10 years is well within our reach!
     
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