A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Here's a trade idea I just posted on another thread. Sorry for the repost, but I thought it belonged here. Ellsbury for Daniel Corcino. If you think about it it would be perfect for both teams. Corcino is at least as likely as anyone else to be the top of the rotation starter the Sox need if they're going to contend nrxt year, and the Reds need a top of the order center fielder. You might have to throw in a prospect like Brentz or Vinicio to make it work.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    And all three need to stay healthy. Moon's concern that there would be injuries and sub-par performances by the Big Three was well founded. At this point, the hope is that most of those doldrums are behind the club. But it's only a hope. Unless the three remain healthy and effective, the Sox will not make the playoffs. Beyond those three, Doubront will probably stay in the rotation until he hits an innings limit, to be replaced by Morales. Cook probably continues to round things out. Even if most of the hope is realized, will it be good enough to vault the Sox over several ( that's the key ) teams now with a leg up on Boston?  A tough order.

    For years I have projected close to 100 wins for the Sox based on the idea that most players stay healthy. This winter, I finally decided to expect at least one injury or "off-season" by our big 3. Why not? They've never all been in top form for a full season. 

    Not many Sox fans would think we'd have had much of a chance had I told them one of the big 3 would be hurt all year or have a 5.40+ ERA. 

    Not planning for 1 to be hurt or down was our biggest mistake. The fact that all 3 have missed time or struggled was totally unexpected, and unless 2 of them get their act together quick, no trade we make is going to win us anything.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : I agree Jete.  As we both know, it's very cold in Boston.  LOL I don't always like that they stick to their guns when setting a ceiling for a player, but Theo was almost always right about letting those players walk. Unless it's for less money per year, I don't see Ortiz being given a 2 year guaranteed contract.  He's proved his doubters wrong time and time again, but he is getting up there in age.  Maybe one year with some kind of vesting option.
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]

    Kimmi as in Kimmi from Sawxheads? Welcome to the Dark SideTongue Out
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Shocking Papi stats of 2012:

    50 PAs in Late & Close situations and a .243 BA and 0 HRs with just 2 RBIs.

    Late & Close are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Shocking Papi stats of 2012: 50 PAs in Late & Close situations and a .243 BA and 0 HRs with just 2 RBIs. Late & Close  are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]That just means he's due.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : That just means he's due.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    He's due alright...

    Walk-off HRS and Hits:
    2012: 0 + 0 non-HR walkoff hits
    2011: 0 + 0 walkoff hits
    2010: 0 + 0 walkoff hits
    2009: 1 + 1 walkoff hit
    2008: 1 + 1 walkoff hit
    2007: 2 + 1 walkoff hit
    2006: 5 + 8 walkoff hits
    2005: 7 + 4 walkoff hits
    2004: 8 + 5 walkoff hits (2 Walkoff Playoff HRs + 1 W/O Hit)
    2003: 9 + 6 walkoff hits

    Yes, walk off HRs are not the only indicator of clutch hitting, but this is shocking as well.

    Yes, pitchers are pitching around Papi, but this is shocking.

    Yes, we all are rooting for Papi to break this spell and end the shock.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : He's due alright... Walk-off HRS and Hits: 2012: 0 + 0 non-HR walkoff hits 2011: 0 + 0 walkoff hits 2010: 0 + 0 walkoff hits 2009: 1 + 1 walkoff hit 2008: 1 + 1 walkoff hit 2007: 2 + 1 walkoff hit 2006: 5 + 8 walkoff hits 2005: 7 + 4 walkoff hits 2004: 8 + 5 walkoff hits (2 Walkoff Playoff HRs + 1 W/O Hit) 2003: 9 + 6 walkoff hits Yes, walk off HRs are not the only indicator of clutch hitting, but this is shocking as well. Yes, pitchers are pitching around Papi, but this is shocking. Yes, we all are rooting for Papi to break this spell and end the shock.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I said that because that's what my dad used to say when Dewey was going through one of his slumps. If Beckett and Lester can turn themselves around, I predict you'll see some high drama from Papi in Sept. and Oct. My personal dream is that he gets to bat against Papelbon in the world series. Foolish I know, but one lives in hope.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I'm fine with the Opps walking Papi to face Ross in game 7 of the World Series game 7, 9th inning and a tie game.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    On a more reasonable track...

    Trade:
    Sweeney
    Nava
    Lavarnway
    Tazawa
    Ranaudo
    Travis Shaw
    Sean Coyle

    For:
    RHP: Jamie Shields: 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout),13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    CF: BJ Upton: 12: $7M , then FA or Arb acceptance. (Salary dump)

    Trade:
    Crawford + 40% of his contract year by year.
    BJ Upton + $1M of the 2.3M owed this year.
    Albers
    Aviles (SS this year?/3B next year?)
    For:
    OF: Ryan Ludwick: 12:$2M, 13:$5M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)
    LHP: Sean Marshall: 12:$3.1M, 13:$4.5M, 14:$5.5M, 15:$6.5M

    Trade:
    Punto + $250K of the $500K owed this year & $500K of the $1.5M '13.
    Dice-K + $3M of the $3.4M owed this year.
    For:
    Anybody.

     2012 Sox  2013 Sox
    C   Salty      Salty 
    C   Shopp    ____
    1B AGon     AGon
    2B Pedey   Pedey
    3B Midd      Midd
    SS Ciriaco  Ciriaco
    IF  Iggy       Iggy
    LF Ludwick Ludwick
    CF Ellsbury Ellsbury (Traded this winter?)
    RF Ross       ______
    OF Pods/Kalish/Linares

    S1 Shields   Shields
    S2 Beck       Beck
    S3 Lest        Lest
    S4 Buch       Buch
    S5 Doub       Lack
    S6 Cook       Doub

    R1 Bailey      Bailey
    R2 Aceves    Aceves
    R3 Morales   Morales
    R4 Marshall  Marshall
    R5 Padilla     _______
    R6 Melancon/Mortensen/RHill/Bard/Stewart/Carpenter/Wilson
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Cincy wants offense from their OFérs. Explore an Ellsbury trade or give them Nava for a nice prospect.

    Texas needs relief help. Offer them Albers and Padilla for a nice prospect.

    Suck it up and pay part of CC's contract and trade him to the NL: SF? Cincy? Miami? Mets? 

    TB needs a catcher. Trade Salty, The prospects from above, Iggy, and Travis Shaw for Jamie Shields.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    You like Shields, moon?  He's a great innings eater, but his career 4.66 road ERA has to be a concern.   
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    After this homestand, we play 29 away games to 18 home games.

    9 vs Bal (6 away/3 home)
    6 vs NYY (3-3)
    6 vs Tor   (3-3)
    6 vs TB (4 away/2 home)
    6 vs LAA (3-3)
    4 @ Cleve
    4 vs KC
    3 @ Oak
    3 @ Sea

    Not easy, but doable.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]After this homestand, we play 29 away games to 18 home games. 9 vs Bal (6 away/3 home) 6 vs NYY (3-3) 6 vs Tor   (3-3) 6 vs TB (4 away/2 home) 6 vs LAA (3-3) 4 @ Cleve 4 vs KC 3 @ Oak 3 @ Sea Not easy, but doable.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    It's about time we cleaned up in Baltimore like we used to. That would solve one problem right there.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Here's a trade idea I just posted on another thread. Sorry for the repost, but I thought it belonged here. Ellsbury for Daniel Corcino. If you think about it it would be perfect for both teams. Corcino is at least as likely as anyone else to be the top of the rotation starter the Sox need if they're going to contend nrxt year, and the Reds need a top of the order center fielder. You might have to throw in a prospect like Brentz or Vinicio to make it work.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]
    From what I have read and seen, Corcino is seen as a back end rotation pitcher, or a frontline bullpen pitcher in the MLB. This does not seem to be enough for a year and a half of Ellsbury (plus two draft picks if he does not sign back). I would ask for someone like DiDi Gregorius along with Corcino. While the Reds would likely not take this exact offer, I think it would be a good starting point in these trade talks.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I think the Reds have major problems in CF. We went to a Padres / Reds game the other day and their current CF is not cutting it ( Stubbs ). They need on base guys badly. Nava might not be such a bad fit for them.

    Too bad about Votto. What bad timing.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : It's about time we cleaned up in Baltimore like we used to. That would solve one problem right there.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    The last couple years, I suggested the AL East might beat itself up so much that the WC could go to another division. Right now, both slots belong to the AL Weat (Oak/LAA) and all AL East teams are near or above .500.

    We need to take care of business with Baltimore and knock them out of it. That leaves Detroit and TB between us and one of those AL West team's slots. We play Detroit now. We need to win now. We need to beat TB. We play Oakland and LAA again, so it might come down to beating them head-to-head. One good thing is that Seattle is no pushover, and the AL West should beat each other up in September, and if we win out, one of them will be losing when they play head-to-head.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I can't believe I chose today to return to the States from Brasil. I will miss the deadline news as I will be landing in Belo Horizonte at the witching hour, then on to Miami and back to Sugar Land, TX by Wed noon.

    Keep it real while I'm gone.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    What a disapointing trade deadline. Effectively Zippo!

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I agree with Cherington on one thing though. He held on to our top prospects. They look like keepers to me also.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I think I was right about Sweeney: not in our future plans. He would have been traded had he not broke a knuckle.

    I was a bit surprised at how little Dempster cost, but I'm glad we didn't give up any top prospects for a rental.

    We finally rid ourselves of the blocked Lars. Wright may surprise someday.

    The two for one deal made the most sense to free up a roser slot.

    We may see some waiver deals (Sell: Shoppach, Cook-if he improves, Padilla, Nava, Aviles, Iggy, Hill, or Atchison). We may become a buyer as well, since not many contenders can block us, because they have better records.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Going by Cots Baseball Contracts, here ismy estimate on where we stand concerning our budget and the luxury tax. (Remember, luxury tax is based on a player's average contract salary, not their year to year salary, so the numbers listed are avg salaries, including bonus, incentives and guaranteed option money.)

    Red= FA after this year, unless they accept arb or extend.

    $22.86M Gonzalez (160/7)
    $20.29M Crawford (142/7)
    $17.00M Beckett (68/4)
    $16.50M Lackey  (82.5/5) not counting min wage injury option for '15
    $14.58M Ortiz (14.58/1) FA in 2013 (or arb)
    $11.20M Youkilis (12.25M-1.023M pais by CWS) CWS or FA in 2013
    $8.67M  Matsusaka (52/6) FA in 2013
    $8.05M  Ellsbury (8.05/1) 2013 last arb year
    $7.49M  Buchholtz (29.945/4) '17 option for $13.5M w/0.5M buyout
    $6.75M  Pedroia (40.5/6) '15 option for $11M w/0.5M buyout counted
    $6.00M  Lester (30/5) '14 option for $13M w/0.25M buyout counted
    $6.00M  Jenks (12/2) FA in 2013 (released by Sox)
    $3.90M  Bailey (3.9/1) 2 arbs left
    $3.00M  Ross (3/1) FA in 2013
    $2.50M  Saltalamacchia (2.5/1) 2013 last arb year
    $2.06M  Iglesias (8.25/4) ? arbs
    $1.75M  Sweeney- 2013 last arb
    $1.61M  Bard- 3 arbs left
    $1.50M  Punto (3/2) 
    $1.50M  Padilla- FA in 2013
    $1.50M? Cook- FA in 2013 (was on minor league deal April/May)
    $1.35M  Shoppach- FA in 2013
    $1.20M  Aceves-2 arbs
    $1.20M  Aviles- 2 arbs
    $1.04M  Miller- 2 arbs
    $.850M  Morales- 2 arbs
    $.725M  Hill- 2013 last arb
    $~.60M  Breslow (~1/3 of 1.795M) 2013 last arb year
    $.521M  Melancon- prearb in 2013, then 3 arbs
    $.510M  Atchison- prearb in 2013, then 3 arbs
    $.min     Tazawa- 4 arbs
    Pre-Arbs:
    $.484M  Doubront
    $.483M  Kalish
    $.482M  Carpenter
    $.481M  Stewart
    Britton, Ciriaco, Gomez, Lavarnway, Lin, Middlebrooks, Mortensen, Nava, Pimental

    Estimated 2013 Luxury Tax Salary Number: $172M

    A player pension contribution number is added to this number. I am not sure what that total is, but I think it makes us close to the luxury tax limit this yea.)



     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Estimated 2013 Luxury Tax Salary Number: $172M

    2014 outlook?

    If we subtract:

    $14.58M Ortiz (14.58/1) FA in 2013 (or arb)
    $11.20M Youkilis (12.25M-1.023M pais by CWS) CWS or FA in 2013
    $8.67M  Matsusaka (52/6) FA in 2013
    $6.00M  Jenks (12/2) FA in 2013 (released by Sox)
    $3.00M  Ross (3/1) FA in 2013
    $1.50M  Padilla- FA in 2013
    $1.50M? Cook- FA in 2013 (was on minor league deal April/May)
    $1.35M  Shoppach- FA in 2013

    ~$48M Total

    2014: $124M before arbs, extensions, and signings.

    Assuming no extensions or trades, and these arb or compromise raises:

    Ellsbury  $0-3M
    Bailey     $0-2M
    Salty       $2-5M
    Breslow  $1-3M
    Sweeney $0-2M
    Bard        $0-1M 
    Aceves    $1-3M
    Aviles      $1-3M
    Miller       $1-2M
    Morales   $1-2M
    Hill          $0-1M
    Tazawa   $0-1M

    Total: $15-25M

    My guess is, it will be about $20M

    Total projected 2014 salary budget without signing any FAs or filling Papi and other departing player's positions:  

    $144M

    If we are going to stay close to this year's budget, that will leave only about ...

    $28M to fill these gaps:

    DH  (Lava or shared?)
    OF  (Kalish/Nava/Lin/Linares/others?)
    SP  (Lackey/Morales/others?)
    RP  (Bard/Mortensen/Melancon/others?)
    C    (Lava?)
    RH'd Power Hitter (Lava?)

    With Bailey and Lackey returning, and Lava most likely on the 25 man roster in 2013, I see us looking to get a #2 slot-type SP and/or a solid clean-up hitter who bats RH'd and plays a decent RF.


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Good stuff Moon, as always. You always do the heavy lifting.

    I can't believe we couldn't move hardly anyone. Cherington might be cautious to a fault IMO. It's a unique situation. Although the odds makers are giving us about a 15% - 20 % chance of making the playoffs, Cherington obviously believes those are good odds.

    And maybe they are if you think about it. God, give us good starting pitching and the rest will take care of itself.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Boom I think you liked this guy, I was a sceptic.  Good for him.

    Josh Reddick, Athletics RF 
    Reddick’s name came to our attention when Ichiro Suzuki was traded to the Yankees a couple of weeks ago. We weren’t surprised to see Ichiro at the top of the Defensive Runs Saved leaderboard, but were a little surprised to see Reddick right alongside. 

    The transition from Boston’s tricky triangle and right-field corner to Oakland’s cavernous outfield has been a smooth one for Reddick, who had eight Defensive Runs Saved, and a Good Play/Misplay & Error rate of 9 to 5 for the month. 

    The skill set that earned Reddick recognition in July was one that nearly injured him -- his ability to go back and get balls. Twice during Oakland’s sizzling July, Reddick made a wall-crashinggame-endingcatch, the second one knocking him woozy (he was back for Oakland’s next series). 

    He also made like Spiderman, hanging on to the right-field wall at the Rogers Centre to make a twisting grab that might have been among the fanciest-looking plays of the month. It earned him his third No. 1 Web Gem of the season (his second of the month), one shy of Alexei Ramirez for the major-league lead. 

    Reddick’s range rating (known to the BIS folks as plus-minus) ended July the same as his season rating in Boston in 2011 (he’s saved 15 bases more than the average defender). 

    But he’s solidified himself as one of the game’s best with his throwing arm. He’s cut back on the rate of runners advancing on balls he’s fielded from 63 percent in 2011 to 45 percent in 2012. 

    It’s not that runners aren’t trying to take bases on him. It’s that Reddick is gunning them down. 

    He’s thrown out nine attempting to advance, including three in the past month. He finished July with 11 assists for the season, one shy of Jeff Francoeur for the major league lead.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Boom I think you liked this guy, I was a sceptic.  Good for him. Josh Reddick, Athletics RF   Reddick’s name came to our attention when  Ichiro Suzuki  was traded to the Yankees a couple of weeks ago. We weren’t surprised to see Ichiro at the top of the Defensive Runs Saved leaderboard, but were a little surprised to see Reddick right alongside.  The transition from Boston’s tricky triangle and right-field corner to Oakland’s cavernous outfield has been a smooth one for Reddick, who had eight Defensive Runs Saved, and a Good Play/Misplay & Error rate of 9 to 5 for the month.  Most Defensive Runs Saved  RF in 2012 Josh Reddick Athletics 16 Ichiro Suzuki Yankees 12 Jason Heyward Braves 12 The skill set that earned Reddick recognition in July was one that nearly injured him -- his ability to go back and get balls. Twice during Oakland’s sizzling July, Reddick made a  wall-crashing ,  game-ending catch, the second one knocking him woozy (he was back for Oakland’s next series).  He also made like  Spiderman , hanging on to the right-field wall at the Rogers Centre to make a twisting grab that might have been among the fanciest-looking plays of the month. It earned him his third No. 1 Web Gem of the season (his second of the month), one shy of Alexei Ramirez for the major-league lead.  Reddick’s range rating (known to the BIS folks as plus-minus) ended July the same as his season rating in Boston in 2011 (he’s saved 15 bases more than the average defender).  But he’s solidified himself as one of the game’s best with his throwing arm. He’s cut back on the rate of runners advancing on balls he’s fielded from 63 percent in 2011 to 45 percent in 2012.  It’s not that runners aren’t trying to take bases on him. It’s that Reddick is gunning them down.  He’s thrown out nine attempting to advance, including three in the past month. He finished July with 11 assists for the season, one shy of  Jeff Francoeur  for the major league lead.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    I thought he was a great fit in Fenway's RF but it is tough to hit one out in Fenway's RF, he doesn't have a lot of patience at the plate and the Sox thought they needed a closer even though I advocated for Aceves last winter also. Overall I can't fault that trade though since we did get some value back and the injury to Bailey was not predictable ( unrelated to his past problems ). 

    People here forget he was thought by many scouts as having the best OF arm in the minors for several years. It's no surprise that he is good defensively. The guy is very athletic and he does have some hops ( see my avatar ).

    Thanks Tom for the recognition.

     

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