A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    On Reddick...

    Part of it all was the Kalish hope/love thing.
    Part of it all was whole too many lefty OF'ers mantra.
    Part of it all was our whole lack of patience for prospects.
    Part of it all was the feeling that Bard shouldn't close, but start instead.
     


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I think they mainly wanted a proven closer without having to spend a lot of cash and they thought Sweeney could be a decent fill in. Agreed on too many LF OF. I don't see where they could have been all that high on Kalish considering how he was coming back from 2 major injuries and he wasn't available for almost 1/2 year. They mainly just wanted a closer.

    They were near the Luxury tax limit and needed to think cheap. And Oakland saw a good thing in Reddick.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    What did you guys think of LAvarnway's first game? He has hit over .310 for his last 10 games or so in AAA. Tonight that was a solid play on the bunt. I'm not confident that Salty makes that play. Lavarnway has a good arm and release.

    He hit the ball hard in 2 of the AB I saw and drew walk in another. I didn't see the last AB. It looked like he was comfortable up there though. Confident. Worked the count. Decent defensively from what I saw ( I only saw maybe 1/2 the game ).
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]What did you guys think of LAvarnway's first game? He has hit over .310 for his last 10 games or so in AAA. Tonight that was a solid play on the bunt. I'm not confident that Salty makes that play. Lavarnway has a good arm and release. He hit the ball hard in 2 of the AB I saw and drew walk in another. I didn't see the last AB. It looked like he was comfortable up there though. Confident. Worked the count. Decent defensively from what I saw ( I only saw maybe 1/2 the game ).
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    BA    .000
    OBP .250
    SLG  .000
    OPS  .250
    CERA 5.00

    If I was softy, I might be writing him off already.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I think they mainly wanted a proven closer without having to spend a lot of cash and they thought Sweeney could be a decent fill in. Agreed on too many LF OF. I don't see where they could have been all that high on Kalish considering how he was coming back from 2 major injuries and he wasn't available for almost 1/2 year. They mainly just wanted a closer. They were near the Luxury tax limit and needed to think cheap. And Oakland saw a good thing in Reddick.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Well, Kalish is here now and Pods is gone. I think they have put a lot of faith into Ryan over the years.

    The Reddick trade was cheaper than trying to sign a FA closer, but not as cheap as just using Bard or Aceves as a closer and back-filling the pen. (Easy to say now, I know, but I was always on record as saying Bard should never been made a starter.)

    Also, as it turned out, Bailey got hurt, and Reddick makes $485M this year and is still pre-arb for 2013! He then gets 3 arb years while Bailey gets $3.9M and Sweeney $1.75M.  That's $5.65M for 2012 or about $4.2M more than reddick alone. Having and knowing Reddick would hit like this, we could have saved the $3M on Ross as well and saved about $7M overall by keeping Josh.

    It would have been nice if we could have traded Reddick and other prospects for 26 year old starter, Gio Gonzalez, instead of Bailey and the knucklehead. Gio is 13-5  3.27  1.14 WHIP. Oh well.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Lets not forget that Reddick's minor league numbers are quite pedestrian.  It was impossible to see this coming.

    Personally, I keep expecting him to fade. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]What did you guys think of LAvarnway's first game? He has hit over .310 for his last 10 games or so in AAA. Tonight that was a solid play on the bunt. I'm not confident that Salty makes that play. Lavarnway has a good arm and release. He hit the ball hard in 2 of the AB I saw and drew walk in another. I didn't see the last AB. It looked like he was comfortable up there though. Confident. Worked the count. Decent defensively from what I saw ( I only saw maybe 1/2 the game ).
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Salty had made that play several times this season. Maybe you missed them.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Lavarnway's first game was a 5-0 loss....He obviously didn't inspire the offense.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    He also didn't hit a HR, leaving him 20 behind MLB leader in that category catchers--SaltyIcan'tsatsifyboomchia
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Reddick was always solid defensively though and he generally had good pop numbers. He has always been streaky but he has hit fairly well when healthy overall. Certainly in the low minors.

    And Oakland cares about outfield D a lot. Reddick was a Plus 20.2 UZR/150 even last year with Boston. 

    I don't think anyone saw the 23 HR as likely but overall his year has been fairly predictable other than the OPS ( which I admit is basically the biggest reason for his 3.9 WAR already). 

    His BAPIP is only .291. He is probably not going to have as much pop going forawrd on average, but he's a decent OF and has always been a better propsect than Kalish to me.

    Over time, I have generally given more credence to BA ratings when evaluating prospects. They seem to be on target more than any of the others. IMO. And they had Reddick as the Redsox #3, when everyone else it seems had him around #10 or 11,  2 years ago.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    On Reddick, does anyone in here in a million years think he could possibly hit 23 jacks and for Oakland? No. If he was here, he'd be under that pressure cooker and to me, he goes back to his slumping ways after a hot streak. He was not a good fit in Boston. How do we know? He loves hitting in Oakland, for Oakland, he seemed uncomfortable in Boston. Guys very comfortable in Boston--Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Beltre, Bay, Pedroia, AGON...Guys not comfortable in Boston--Renteria, Lackey, CC, Tony Clark, Reddick.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Josh Reddick
    Projected to 650 PAs
    2011: .280  16  65  (49 2B+3B)
    2012: .260  36  83  (43 2B+3B)

    2nd Half:
    2011: (208 PAs) .244  5  13
    2012: (75 PAs)   .225  2    7

    Project Reddick's 2nd half numbers to the 208 PAs of 2011:
    .225  5  20
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    What do you think of Martin Perez moon? I figure that's who Ben had to be trying from the Rangers this weekend.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    A lot of HR hitters have hot streaks. Lavarnway last year. Salty this year. Reddick this year. Sometimes, it happens. Look at Adrian Gonzalez. It happens.

    That is one reason why, unlike many of you, I haven't jumped on the Salty bandwagon. I didn't in June when so many of you thought he was the 2bd coming. I'm not doing it now either. Sometimes power hitters have hot streaks where they hit a bunch of HR in one month.

    But I guess I flunked baseball 101. Don't be surprised if Lavarnway beats Salty out for the starting job next Spring. My bet is that he is the better player.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Does it really look like Lavarnway is any worse a defender than Salty? They didn't even try to run on him. On the bunt play he snuffed it out. I don't see where is is any worse a defender. My bet is that overall, he is a better defender going forward. He has a better arm for sure, and a decent release. And I love the way he approaches his AB. It's a quantum leap beyond Salty who just gets up there and hacks. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Josh Reddick Projected to 650 PAs 2011: .280  16  65  (49 2B+3B) 2012: .260  36  83  (43 2B+3B) 2nd Half: 2011: (208 PAs) .244  5  13 2012: (75 PAs)   .225  2    7 Project Reddick's 2nd half numbers to the 208 PAs of 2011: .225  5  20
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Wasn't Reddick injured in the 2nd half though and still trying to play? Last year. That was a big factor in his 2nd half fade. Before that he was great:

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]A lot of HR hitters have hot streaks. Lavarnway last year. Salty this year. Reddick this year. Sometimes, it happens. Look at Adrian Gonzalez. It happens. That is one reason why, unlike many of you, I haven't jumped on the Salty bandwagon. I didn't in June when so many of you thought he was the 2bd coming. I'm not doing it now either. Sometimes power hitters have hot streaks where they hit a bunch of HR in one month. But I guess I flunked baseball 101. Don't be surprised if Lavarnway beats Salty out for the starting job next Spring. My bet is that he is the better player.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    You've made this "bet" numerous times. As far as I can tell, no one on the board has explicitly bet against you. In effect, people have said, "Let it play out," and examined the possibilities, including trades and an extension. The argument centered on whether Salty was the worst or amongst the worst defenders at his position, not who would win the catching job long-term.
    I said explicitly that Sox fans should hope that the club will play the best person for each position. That would include catcher. I have also said Salty could be vulnerable if he doesn't improve his BA and his OBP and K less. 
    As for Baseball 101, you didn't even know why a club would bat a power hitter in the 6 hole, even while he's slumping. Catchers with pop have often been slotted there, or higher. At some point, Salty might be dropped in the order, but that did not happen for good reason while he was compiling a record of 20 homers, streaky or not. I cited instances in which the opposition and its pitchers took that record very seriously with a man on base late in games. You think that the pitchers were just wild. ( You said that you and I could have drawn a walk from Nathan. ) You were wrong. Salty was walked unintentionally intentionally. Graduates of Baseball 101 would have known that.
    Give it a rest and join the others here who are waiting for the situation to resolve itself.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Does it really look like Lavarnway is any worse a defender than Salty? They didn't even try to run on him. On the bunt play he snuffed it out. I don't see where is is any worse a defender. My bet is that overall, he is a better defender going forward. He has a better arm for sure, and a decent release. And I love the way he approaches his AB. It's a quantum leap beyond Salty who just gets up there and hacks. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Lavarnway made a very good play on the bunt, just as Salty has on similar ones, including swinging bunts and dribblers. Lavarnway may or may not  turn out the better defender in time. We'll see. Both he and Salty have strong arms.
    Overall, Lavarnway looked good at the plate. He was patient. He drew a walk. He got wood on the ball twice, more the first time than the second. In his last AB he took a FB right down the middle for strike three. 
    He had a nice game.
    He could be the future.
    We'll see. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Lets not forget that Reddick's minor league numbers are quite pedestrian.  It was impossible to see this coming. Personally, I keep expecting him to fade. 
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]


    Reddick may be out of baseball in 5 years... really nobody can assess his true career averages for quite some time. There is a list of players about 10,000 miles long who had one or two or three grand seasons in the sun.

    25 homers today, 12 a year from now. Or maybe not. I certainly do not root against him.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : You've made this "bet" numerous times. As far as I can tell, no one on the board has explicitly bet against you. In effect, people have said, "Let it play out," and examined the possibilities, including trades and an extension. The argument centered on whether Salty was the worst or amongst the worst defenders at his position, not who would win the catching job long-term. I said explicitly that Sox fans should hope that the club will play the best person for each position. That would include catcher. I have also said Salty could be vulnerable if he doesn't improve his BA and his OBP and K less.  As for Baseball 101, you didn't even know why a club would bat a power hitter in the 6 hole, even while he's slumping. 

    Actually I said something like "Ideally, Salty should be slotted in the #7 or 8 spot in the lineup". Big difference. And the way he has been hitting recently I don't think that was an earth shattering comment. We would be a better lineup if our .230 average, .290 OBP guy were slotted at 7 or 8 after our higher average/OBP players.

    Catchers with pop have often been slotted there, or higher. At some point, Salty might be dropped in the order, but that did not happen for good reason while he was compiling a record of 20 homers, streaky or not. I cited instances in which the opposition and its pitchers took that record very seriously with a man on base late in games. You think that the pitchers were just wild. ( You said that you and I could have drawn a walk from Nathan. ) You were wrong. Salty was walked unintentionally intentionally. Graduates of Baseball 101 would have known that. 

    Actually we were talking about 1 instance, just last week, when Nathan had just walked Nava and then walked Salty. He was pitching carefully to both and threw a  lot of curveballs to Salty and just didn't get them over. It was not like the fear of God was in Nathan when he walked Nava also.

    Give it a rest and join the others here who are waiting for the situation to resolve itself.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    By the way, Salty has a total of 30 assists all year. That's assists due to throwing out base stealers, throwing to first or any other base on infield plays, and throwing anyone out on any other plays such as run downs. The ball wasn't far from home plate but in the very few games we have seen Lavarnway play catcher I'd seen him make that play twice and both times were solid. I can't say I've seen Salty make that sort of play much at all.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III :
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Nathan missed by much more to Salty than to Nava. You even said that you and I could have walked against Nathan. No, because he would not have been trying to get us to chase curves in the dirt. Danny, Southpaw, and I saw exactly what was going on in Salty's AB. He has 20 homers. How many does Nava have?Robertson and a Detroit pitcher took the same course with Salty. Mainly or only because they wild? They were trying to get him to chase bad pitches. He didn't bite. 

    And those 20 homers are why, despite his low BA and OBP, he's not batting "ideally" in the 7 or 8 hole. He's higher in the order so that strong batters ahead of him won't be pitched around. That is Baseball 101. 
    He may be dropped in the order at some point, but the reason why that has not already happened is obvious.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]What do you think of Martin Perez moon? I figure that's who Ben had to be trying from the Rangers this weekend.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    I'm not big on knowing how good prospects are on other teams, but his nearly 4 BB/9 is scary.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    We need something better than Salty in the 6 spot. Pure and simple.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    That is one reason why, unlike many of you, I haven't jumped on the Salty bandwagon. I didn't in June when so many of you thought he was the 2bd coming. I'm not doing it now either. Sometimes power hitters have hot streaks where they hit a bunch of HR in one month.

    I have cautiously "jumped on the Salty bandwagon" not because of the HRs, RBIs and clutch hits, but because of his marked improvement with the staff since May 1st. I am sure some posters have feel in love with the HRs, RBIs or clutch hits, but without the marked improvement of the staff since about May 1st, I'd still be on the Lava bandwagon.

    Does it really look like Lavarnway is any worse a defender than Salty? They didn't even try to run on him. On the bunt play he snuffed it out. I don't see where is is any worse a defender. My bet is that overall, he is a better defender going forward. He has a better arm for sure, and a decent release. And I love the way he approaches his AB. It's a quantum leap beyond Salty who just gets up there and hacks. 

    Nobody disagrees with you on the SB/CS portion of catcher defensive evaluation being in Lava's favor. What we apparently disagree on, is the weighted value some give to this minimal part of a catcher's defensive package. 

    While the promising CERA-related trend for Salty has sputtered a little of late, our staff has let up 5 or more runs in 3 of Shoppach's last 6 starts and 1 of 1 from Lava.
     
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