A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Wasn't Reddick injured in the 2nd half though and still trying to play? Last year. That was a big factor in his 2nd half fade. Before that he was great:

    So, what's the excuse for an even worse BA this second half?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]By the way, Salty has a total of 30 assists all year. That's assists due to throwing out base stealers, throwing to first or any other base on infield plays, and throwing anyone out on any other plays such as run downs. The ball wasn't far from home plate but in the very few games we have seen Lavarnway play catcher I'd seen him make that play twice and both times were solid. I can't say I've seen Salty make that sort of play much at all.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    If you gtake away CSs from the assist totals, Salty places in the upper half of assists per inning caught among MLB catchers.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]We need something better than Salty in the 6 spot. Pure and simple.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    We need a lot of things..or the Sox need a lot of things. 
    1. Try a new Manager
    2. Try a new coaching staff
    3. Try 3 new SPs
    4. Try a real LF
    5. Try a CF that will leave town soon
    6. Try a 2B who will be the next to ask for a trade
    7. Try a DH after the current one leaves this off season
    8. Try a new medical staff

    This is where I see Salty as being so down the list of things that are "wrong" with the Red Sox. He is more of a plus than anything else. But you got this hard on about Lavarnway and you won't let it go. Maybe the Sox FO was grooming him all along. Who knows. The season is a disaster, he's not going to come in and lead the team to the playoffs. No one can.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    How many games have we had Papi & Ellsbury in the line-up this year?

    With AGon heating up, and Papi's return on the horizon, I'm not yet ready to write off the season, but the list of team concerns is long.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : If you gtake away CSs from the assist totals, Salty places in the upper half of assists per inning caught among MLB catchers.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Then again, Salty is 2nd from last among starting AL catchers in throwing out runners also. 

    It makes no difference stating facts here. He has a 4.65 CERA but he is doing so much better recently that it's OK. He is still 2nd from the worst in  CERA among qualifying catchers.

    He has a -.03 DWAR, absolute worst in the league among qualifying catchers. 

    Less than a 20% CS rate when throwing out runners.

    On and On and on he is absolutely terrible defensively. We'd be better off giving Lavarnway a shot.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Wasn't Reddick injured in the 2nd half though and still trying to play? Last year. That was a big factor in his 2nd half fade. Before that he was great: So, what's the excuse for an even worse BA this second half?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Reddick had an operation on his wrists right after the season ended. I don't look at that as an excuse. Do you really look at that as an excuse?

    Reddick has hit .240 since the all star break, which BTW is a heck of a lot better than Salty. Where is Salty's excuse? For his past 5 years of MLB? I mean really. The sample size is large. Only one year much above .235 and then it was around .253 or so. Where is Salty's excuse?

    You guys are the ones with excuses. Not Reddick who clearly had an injury.


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I just want to win. I don't have a personal preference for either player. I don't know either of them personally. I just think Lavarnway gives us a better chance of winning. Especially this year when we could have moved Salty for some value, put a potentially solid RH bat in the lineup and kept our costs down going forward. And it wasn't about saving his years of control. We could have brought him up a month ago and been assured of that.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Then again, Salty is 2nd from last among starting AL catchers in throwing out runners also. 

    boom, I've brought this up before. Fangraphs list of qualifying catchers has 15 names on it. There are 30 MLB starting catchers, so by saying Salty is 2nd from last implies he is #29 out of 30. He is not.

    Expand the list to 30 catchers, and these are the facts:
    Worst CS rate:
    Barrajas 58/4    6%
    Flores    43/5   10% 
    Mauer    32/5   14%
    Castro    39/9   18.8%
    Snyder   49/12 19.67%
    Salty       57-14 19.72%
    Napoli    32/8    20%

    There are 5 starting MLB catchers with a worse CS rate and one close to Salty.

    No doubt, Salty is not good at throwing out runners. His career rate is 24%, so all the blame can not be put on the staff allowing better breaks by base runners.

    How about looking at SBs per inning?
    Worst:

    Hundley  54/467  .116
    Snyder    49/422  .116
    Barrajas 58/552   .105
    Salty        57/613  .093
    Castro     39/438  .089
    G Soto     39/454  .086
    Wilson     37/419  .088

    If Salty was average at throwing out runners, how many more CSs would he have? Maybe10-15? How many runs would that have prevented?

    Fangraphs has Salty at -2 rSB. one is worse at -6. 4 catchers are at -1, 7 are at 0,and  5 are at +1. Basically, Salty has allowed 2 more runs than the league median catcher due to poor throwing, and this does not factor in how poorly their staff halds runners from running. 


    It makes no difference stating facts here. He has a 4.65 CERA but he is doing so much better recently that it's OK. He is still 2nd from the worst in  CERA among qualifying catchers.

    boom, comparing CERA across teams is useless. Catchers catch different staff, have different defensive teams behind their staff, and play half their games in a different home park. This is a gross abuse of the CERA stat.

    He has a -.03 DWAR, absolute worst in the league among qualifying catchers. 

    When you expand the fangraph's catcher WAR list to include 30 catchers (190+ PAs), here's what I found for the fielding part of WAR:
    16) Salty    -0.7
    17) Jaso    -0.8
    18) Ellis    -1.0
    19) Martin -1.1
    20) Santana -1.1
    21) Avila      -1.2
    22) Castro  -1.8
    23) Rosario -1.8
    24) Mauer   -2.2
    25) AJ P.     -2.3
    26) Torr      -2.4
    27) Mont     -3.3
    28) Snyder -3.5
    29) Doumit -4.5
    30) Barrajas -6.1

    Less than a 20% CS rate when throwing out runners.

    Are you counting this minor stat twice against him?

    On and On and on he is absolutely terrible defensively. We'd be better off giving Lavarnway a shot.

    I hope you don't use these stats to try and justify how good Lava is defensively. I know I won't use them against you if they turn out badly, because they do not tell the full story or even a significant part of the equation.

    The sample size will be small, but my guess is that a 24 year old catcher will not be about average among MLb starting catchers in many skillset evaluations. I hope he makes up for it with his bat, but it is hard for any hitter to make up for just a small fraction in higher staff ERA.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Then again, Salty is 2nd from last among starting AL catchers in throwing out runners also.  boom, I've brought this up before. Fangraphs list of qualifying catchers has 15 names on it. There are 30 MLB starting catchers, so by saying Salty is 2nd from last implies he is #29 out of 30. He is not. Expand the list to 30 catchers, and these are the facts: Worst CS rate: Barrajas 58/4    6% Flores    43/5   10%  Mauer    32/5   14% Castro    39/9   18.8% Snyder   49/12 19.67% Salty       57-14 19.72% Napoli    32/8    20% There are 5 starting MLB catchers with a worse CS rate and one close to Salty. No doubt, Salty is not good at throwing out runners. His career rate is 24%, so all the blame can not be put on the staff allowing better breaks by base runners. How about looking at SBs per inning? Worst: Hundley  54/467  .116 Snyder    49/422  .116 Barrajas 58/552    .105 Salty        57/613  .093 Castro     39/438  .089 G Soto     39/454  .086 Wilson     37/419  .088 If Salty was average at throwing out runners, how many more CSs would he have? Maybe10-15? How many runs would that have prevented? Fangraphs has Salty at -2 rSB. one is worse at -6. 4 catchers are at -1, 7 are at 0,and  5 are at +1. Basically, Salty has allowed 2 more runs than the league median catcher due to poor throwing, and this does not factor in how poorly their staff halds runners from running.  It makes no difference stating facts here. He has a 4.65 CERA but he is doing so much better recently that it's OK. He is still 2nd from the worst in  CERA among qualifying catchers. boom, comparing CERA across teams is useless. Catchers catch different staff, have different defensive teams behind their staff, and play half their games in a different home park. This is a gross abuse of the CERA stat. He has a -.03 DWAR, absolute worst in the league among qualifying catchers.  When you expand the fangraph's catcher WAR list to include 30 catchers (190+ PAs), here's what I found for the fielding part of WAR: 16) Salty    -0.7 17) Jaso    -0.8 18) Ellis    -1.0 19) Martin -1.1 20) Santana -1.1 21) Avila      -1.2 22) Castro  -1.8 23) Rosario -1.8 24) Mauer   -2.2 25) AJ P.     -2.3 26) Torr      -2.4 27) Mont     -3.3 28) Snyder -3.5 29) Doumit -4.5 30) Barrajas -6.1 Less than a 20% CS rate when throwing out runners. Are you counting this minor stat twice against him? On and On and on he is absolutely terrible defensively. We'd be better off giving Lavarnway a shot. I hope you don't use these stats to try and justify how good Lava is defensively. I know I won't use them against you if they turn out badly, because they do not tell the full story or even a significant part of the equation. The sample size will be small, but my guess is that a 24 year old catcher will not be about average among MLb starting catchers in many skillset evaluations. I hope he makes up for it with his bat, but it is hard for any hitter to make up for just a small fraction in higher staff ERA.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Moon, discussing this subject with Boom is a waste of time, though I'm glad that you set him straight publicly for the record. 
    As Snake and Southpaw have pointed out, Boom ignore's Boston's own scouting reports on Lavarnway's defensive liabilities, and ignores all of us, prominently you, who've taken the time and effort to track Salty's improvement on defense.


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Certainly not having Manny behind Papi has contributed to the sharp drop off in Papi's walk-off Hrs and hits the last 4 years. It also has effected Papi's Late & Close OPS, however, blaming it all on the loss of Manny is ebing short-sighted. The league is filled with hitters who have much worse batters behind them who have done better than Papi in Late & Close situations. 

    To me, the whole offseason flowchart begins with the Papi decision. The trade or not trade of Ellsbury is a close second.

    Assuming we have about $28M to spend this offseason to stay about where we are now, here is one way to look at 2013  before any moves/signingsd

    C  Salty  (Lava)
    1B AGon 
    2b Pedey
    3B Midds
    SS Iggy/Ciriaco
    LF Craw
    CF Ellsb
    RF Sween
    DH Lava 
    IF  Aviles
    IF  Punto
    OF Kalish/Nava
    S1 Beckett
    S2 Lester
    S3 Buch
    S4 Doub
    S5 Lackey
    R1 Bailey
    R2 Aceves
    R3 Morales
    R5 Bard
    R6 Breslow
    R7 Miller
    R8 Atchison/Melancon/Mortensen/Tazawa/Hill/Stewart/Wilson/Carpenter

    Flow Chart:

    Sign Papi?

    Yes: (arb ~$15M/1 yr, ~ $28M/2, or something like '13 $15M, '14 $14M, '15 $13M option with $1M buyout, essentially a $30M/2 year deal, but only a $10M/yr luxury tax hit.)  
    Spending budget remaining: $13M to $18M.

    No: Use Lava and others at DH or sign someone else.
    Spending Budget remaining: $28M

    Trade Ellsbury?

    Yes: Blockbuster for a MLB ready starting pitcher, RH'd OF'er, or some top prospects that could be flipped for an important piece.
    Spending Budget: Unknown. Ellsbury is up for his last arb raise, but with the injury this year, it may not be significantly beyond his $8M contract this year. It also depends on who we get in return for Ellsbury and what their salary is. We then have a hole in CF to fill.

    No: We will likely get a comp pick when Ellsbury walks and have his contract savings to spend for 2014.

    SP: Lackey and Doubront as the #4/5 slot starters?
     
    Yes: Have Morales ready if one faulters.

    No: Trade or sign a starter or use Morales instead of Lackey or Doubront.

    SP: Stay with the big 3?

    Yes: Pray for all 3 to stay healthy and pitch well for one in their careers.

    No: Go for a #1 or top #2 slot starter via free agency or trade.

    RF: Sweeney/Kalish/Linares/ others?

    Yes: Use remaining money to address starting pitching or possibly SS.

    No: Trade or sign a legitimate ML RF'er, preferably who bats RH'd, has a good arm and can play Fenway's RF well.

    C: Salty and Lav?

    Yes: Let Shoppach walk and have 2 catchers who both hit righties better (see the Papi decision, if No on Papi, we could bring back Salty, Lava and Shoppach and have Lava DH and be our #3 catcher).

    No: Trade one of them and bring back a Shoppach type as our back-up. 


    SS: Iggy, Ciriaco and/or Aviles?

    Yes: Let them fight it out in ST and trade or demote one of the 3.

    No: Find an outside "bridge" SS to Iggy, Bogaerts, Ciriaco, Marrero, Lin, or Vinicio. 

    RH'd Clean-up hitter?

    Yes: Sign or trade for one (RF, DH?)

    No: Go with Lava or have 2 lefties up 3 and 4 (AGon/Papi).
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]We need something better than Salty in the 6 spot. Pure and simple.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Neither pure nor simple. 
    Typically oracular in style.  That's what pure and simple. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I'd certainly prefer that Salty bat 7th or lower vs RHPs, but with 23 guys put on the DL over the season, we end up with make-shift line-ups nearly everyday.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I'd certainly prefer that Salty bat 7th or lower vs RHPs, but with 23 guys put on the DL over the season, we end up with make-shift line-ups nearly everyday.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    You've given one reason why the decision to remove him from the 6 hole would not be "pure and simple."  
    At the moment, who would replace him with enough power to discourage pitchers from pitching around previous batters to get to him?
    If the Sox acquire an OFer with pop ( assuming that Ross is not resigned ), the lineup arrangement changes. Another factor is the possibility that Ortiz may be allowed to walk.
    Much remains to be seen, during this season, even more so beyond it.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : You've given one reason why the decision to remove him from the 6 hole would not be "pure and simple."   At the moment, who would replace him with enough power to discourage pitchers from pitching around previous batters to get to him? If the Sox acquire an OFer with pop ( assuming that Ross is not resigned ), the lineup arrangement changes. Another factor is the possibility that Ortiz may be allowed to walk. Much remains to be seen, during this season, even more so beyond it.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    With everyone healthy, I could see these line-ups:

    vs RHPs
    1) Ellsbury
    2) Crawford
    3) AGon
    4) Pedroai
    5) Papi
    6) Middlebrooks
    7) Ross
    8) Salty
    9) Ciriaco

    (I could see Pedey 2nd, Papi 4th, Midds 5th, and CC 6th with Salty 7th. and Sweeney or Ross 8th.)

    vs LHPs
    1) Ells
    2) Pedey
    3) Papi
    4) Ross
    5) AGon
    6) Midds
    7) Lava/Shopp
    8) Aviles
    9) CC


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]How many games have we had Papi & Ellsbury in the line-up this year? With AGon heating up, and Papi's return on the horizon, I'm not yet ready to write off the season, but the list of team concerns is long.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Short and telling.  Ortiz went south when Ells and CC came north.  Then Sweeney undergoes self-immolation. 

    You're absolutely right it's too early to write the team off.  Lots of problems, but still some potential, some hope to cling to--

    Lineup with Ells, Ped, Ortiz, AGon, Ross, Middlebrooks, CC, Salty/Shoppach, and Ciriaco/Aviles could be pretty decent.

    Lester and Beckett ain't dead yet.  Both can still pitch.  So can Doubront and Buchholz and Morales and the bullpen.  Not so sure about Cook, but he is at least a 6th starter. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Short and telling.  Ortiz went south when Ells and CC came north.  Then Sweeney undergoes self-immolation.  You're absolutely right it's too early to write the team off.  Lots of problems, but still some potential, some hope to cling to-- Lineup with Ells, Ped, Ortiz, AGon, Ross, Middlebrooks, CC, Salty/Shoppach, and Ciriaco/Aviles could be pretty decent. Lester and Beckett ain't dead yet.  Both can still pitch.  So can Doubront and Buchholz and Morales and the bullpen.  Not so sure about Cook, but he is at least a 6th starter. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    These are much better line-ups than we've had all season:

           Vs RHPs      Vs LHPs
    1)           Ellsbury
    2)  Crawford     Pedey
    3)  AGon           Papi
    4)  Papi             Ross
    5)  Pedey          AGon
    6)        Middlebrooks
    7)  Ross            Lava/Shopp
    8)  Salty            Aviles/Ciriaco
    9)  Ciriaco         Crawford

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : These are much better line-ups than we've had all season:        Vs RHPs      Vs LHPs 1)           Ellsbury 2)  Crawford     Pedey 3)  AGon           Papi 4)  Papi             Ross 5)  Pedey          AGon 6)        Middlebrooks 7)  Ross            Lava/Shopp 8)  Salty            Aviles/Ciriaco 9)  Ciriaco         Crawford
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Have to disagree  about Pedey in the 5 hole this year. Not with the kind of season he's been having -- injured or not. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Have to disagree  about Pedey in the 5 hole this year. Not with the kind of season he's been having -- injured or not. 
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]


    Middlebrooks up 5th and Pedey 6th vs RHPs is OK with me.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Middlebrooks up 5th and Pedey 6th vs RHPs is OK with me.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Just tonight, or regularly?
    In the 6 hole, I like a batter who is at least a threat to go yard at any time, even while slumping -- within limits. You want your 4 and 5 guys to get something to hit. Given the current Boston roster, that guy is Salty. BV seems to agree -- when Salty is in the lineup. That could change, of course.
    Are you OK with Ross in the 3 hole tonight? The season appears to be catching up with him, or just a blip. He's popping up pitches he had been banging. He's also too often demonstrating displeasure with strike calls. He won't get close calls if he does too much of that.
    Hear from you later.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Just tonight, or regularly? 

    Untill he regains his stroke.

    In the 6 hole, I like a batter who is at least a threat to go yard at any time, even while slumping -- within limits. You want your 4 and 5 guys to get something to hit. Given the current Boston roster, that guy is Salty. BV seems to agree -- when Salty is in the lineup. That could change, of course. 

    Agreed.

    Are you OK with Ross in the 3 hole tonight? The season appears to be catching up with him, or just a blip. He's popping up pitches he had been banging. He's also too often demonstrating displeasure with strike calls. He won't get close calls if he does too much of that. Hear from you later.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    Ross up 3rd is the right thing.

    Ross vs LHPs projected to 650 PAs:
    2012:
    .301  61  164

    Career:
    .280  41  124


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Ross up 3rd is the right thing. Ross vs LHPs projected to 650 PAs: 2012: .301  61  164 Career: .280  41  124
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Good call on your part -- and BV's. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Drew, Kalish, Reddick, Linares,....  make the 10th inning catch easily that Ross couldn't haul in.  Defense matters!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Moon, discussing this subject with Boom is a waste of time, though I'm glad that you set him straight publicly for the record.  As Snake and Southpaw have pointed out, Boom ignore's Boston's own scouting reports on Lavarnway's defensive liabilities, and ignores all of us, prominently you, who've taken the time and effort to track Salty's improvement on defense.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]


    I guess that ESPN is wrong then. I've posted that link at least 3 times. Did you ever post any evidence at all expitch? Any substantiation beyond your opinion as a self appointed baseball professor?

    I guess fangraphs must be wrong also when they list Salty as having a -7 DRS. Costing his team 7 runs so far this year as compared to an average catcher. Fangraphs is just so unreliable huh. They never took baseball 101 apparently.

    And a -.3 DWAR is different from a WAR rating. Salty so far hasn't even been a net positive defensively. We could have paid some team $300,000 to take him off our hands defensively and been even. 

    I stand by my position. It's well substantiated.
     

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