A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    2013 And Beyond, that is...

    This offseason can go in so many directions, it is hard to put your finger on the most likely path. Personally, I'd like to see us make only deals and signings that only help us beyond 2013, but my guess is Sox management may sign a player or two to keep fans in the stands for 2013 and bridge us to the point where some of our top prospects are ready to try it in the bigs. In the past, our budget has been a factor, but I'm not sure it will be this winter, at least in terms of trying to stay below the luxury tax limit. Here's a rundown of what we have for a foundation.

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 5!
    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)
    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)
    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)
    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)
    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)
    ~$45M in signed players.

    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    I think all of these players will be retained by signing before they even reach arb, but I am pretty certain some will be traded before next season begins.  Last arb year players (Ellsbury, Salty, Breslow, Sweeney, and Hill) are likely candidates to try and trade for longer team-controlled players.  Jacocby's possible trade has been debated for months and even years, but he must be traded before the 2013 season begins, if the team getting him is to receive the comp draft pick if Ellsbury does not accept about a $13M offer after 2013. This draft pick greatly increases his value, so in my opinion, we should look to trade him this winter rather than lose him for only a draft pick after 2013. Several contending teams would love to have him for 2013 & then the draft pick if he walks, but we shouldn't hand him away. Salty may be traded to make way for Lava, Sweeney may be traded as well, but he may stay as a bridge to Brentz & Bradley. Aceves is wearing out his welcome, but is a fine mid/long reliever. Aviles will likely be dealt as Iggy and Ciriaco share SS & IF duties. Breslow could help net a better player as part of a package.

    Current players in last year of team control:
    Ortiz
    Dice-K
    Loney
    Ross
    Cook
    Padilla
    Podsednick
    Papi is the big decision this winter. He's a legend and should retire in a Sox uniform. I doubt any other team would offer him more than what he is worth to this team and city. I realize we are not likely to seriously compete in 2013, but Papi should be the exception to the rule of looking to 2014 and beyond. I think Ross wants to stay in Boston as much as Ben wants him here as well. Pods & Padilla may be back on 1 year deals.


    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Lin (OF)
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Top Prospects probably not ready for MLB in 2013 (* may see in 2013):
    SS Bogaerts 19 (Could be moved to OF or 1B)
    SP Barnes 22
    OF Bradley 22
    SP Webster* 22
    OF Brentz* 23
    3B Cecchini 21 (Could be moved to OF, 1B or 2B), Vitek 23
    SP Owens 20
    C Swihart 20, Vazquez 22, D Butler* 25
    SP Workman* 24, Johnson 21, Ranaudo 23,  Light 21, Buttrey 19 , Montas 19,
         Callahan 18, Hernandez 23, Ramirez 22, M Pena 21, Olmsted, Kukuk, Wright
         de la Torre
    SS Marrero 22, Vinicio  19, Lin 18
    RP Wilson* 25, Fields 24, Kurcz, Inman, Huntzinger
    OF Linares* 28, Jacobs 21, de la Cruz 20, Hazelbaker 25
    1B/3B  T Shaw 22
    2B Coyle 20

    If we made no trades or signings, my guess is our roster would look like this:

    C Salty   (Butler?)
    C/DH Lava
    1B/DH Gomez (Sands?)
    2B Pedey
    3B Middlebrooks (Valencia?)
    SS Aviles
    IF Iggy or Ciriaco (DeJesus?)
    LF Nava
    CF Ellsbury (Lin?)
    RF Sweeney
    OF Kalish or Linares (Brentz?)

    SP Buch
    SP Lest
    SP Lackey
    SP Doub
    SP Morales
    SP Tazawa (de la Rosa? Webster? Workman?)

    CL Bailey
    RP Aceves
    RP Breslow
    RP Miller     
    RP Atchison (Melancon?)
    RP Mortensen (Carpernter?)
    RP R Hill  (Bard? Beato? Wilson?)

    There are several paths we can go on this winter. I'm sure we all will explore many of them over the next few months. Some are not likely at all while others have varying degrees of liklihood. Here's a rough sketch of some plans:

    1) Spend big and try to compete in 2013: replace the "saved salary" with further big contracts that hopefull will not flame out, such as Hamilton, Greinke, & Napoli to replace AGon, CC & Beckett.

    2) Go for 2014 (and beyond): trade away last arb year players and plan on Bogarts, Bradley, barnes and others to be ready and productive by 2014. Only sign of trade for players that are under team control for several years.

    3) Sign a few bridge players to short term deals, but plan on 2014 and beyond as the true competitive goal.

    I'd choose #2, but I'd keep Papi, try and sign Ross to a 2-3 year deal for LF not RF(could DH in 2014), and look to make some serious trades and signings that help in 2013, but that will be ehre for 2014 and beyond.

    Let's keep it "real" on this thread.
    Let's keep the personal attacks off this thread.
    Let's try and keep this about the Sox and not politics.
    Let the debates begin...





     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    this is just me so..i would sign shane victorino to play LF.

    may be sign greinke..or sign 2 top starting pitchers.

    we could try napoli at 1B.

    we could trade for 1B and starting pitching..so manny ways to go...but we have to do somthing..the owners said they would this off season from what i read.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    this is just me so..i would sign shane victorino to play LF.

    The 140 point career split differential is troubling (weaker vs RHPs).

    may be sign greinke..or sign 2 top starting pitchers.

    Greink will be way overpayed, but I do think the "can't handle pressure" tag is unfair. This year's FA crop is weak.

    we could try napoli at 1B.

    We can do better. Even softy's ide of trading for VMart is better than overpaying for Naps.


    we could trade for 1B and starting pitching..so manny ways to go...but we have to do somthing..the owners said they would this off season from what i read.

    I think we make one big splash signing (Hamilton or Greinke) or trade (Upton), but maybe not two. The player will help keep the stands full, but also help be part of the foundation for 2014 and beyond.

    We may fill a few key roles with Cody Ross type signings again this winter, but most will be one year deals.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    i like the vmart trade..that sounds good..we need to add power to this lineup...who that power guy will be? not sure...we really need starting pitching...it is killing us...middlebrooks will be back thats some power..but we need more. pitching pitching pitching...

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think the Sox will bring back Ortiz and Ross.  And probably move Ellsbury, as well.

    I think they add, at minimum, 2 hitters and a SP.  One candidate is Mike Morse (for Ellsbury).

    I do think they are a finalist for Hamilton.  I hope if he comes here, the deal is survivable.

    As for SP, I would like Brett Anderson.  I find Matt Garza to be far more likely.  I also think Tazawa, De La Rosa, and Morales get short term shots in the rotation in 2013.  Buchholz, Lester, Lackey and Doubront all return to their roles.


    C: Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway
    1B: Morse
    2b: Pedroia
    3b: Middlebrooks
    SS: DeJesus, Iglesias or Ciriaco
    LF: Sands
    CF: Kalsh/Ross
    RF: Hamilton
    DH: Ortiz

    If Hamilton signs elsewhere, the Sox could also pursue the suddenly surplus bench material Jose Tabata, who also fills the leadoff void left by Ellsbury...


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    I think the Sox will bring back Ortiz and Ross.  And probably move Ellsbury, as well.

    I think they add, at minimum, 2 hitters and a SP.  One candidate is Mike Morse (for Ellsbury).

    I do think they are a finalist for Hamilton.  I hope if he comes here, the deal is survivable.

    As for SP, I would like Brett Anderson.  I find Matt Garza to be far more likely.  I also think Tazawa, De La Rosa, and Morales get short term shots in the rotation in 2013.  Buchholz, Lester, Lackey and Doubront all return to their roles.


    C: Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway
    1B: Morse
    2b: Pedroia
    3b: Middlebrooks
    SS: DeJesus, Iglesias or Ciriaco
    LF: Sands
    CF: Kalsh/Ross
    RF: Hamilton
    DH: Ortiz

    If Hamilton signs elsewhere, the Sox could also pursue the suddenly surplus bench material Jose Tabata, who also fills the leadoff void left by Ellsbury...


     



    yeah...i like this...solid post.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html


    not to many starting pitchers to choose from...

    i would take peavy,,dempster...mccarthy...the 1st 2 maybe 1 or 2 year deals.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Not a bad call on Morse. He hits about .295 with 25 Hrs per 600 PAs vs both lefties and righties.

    Personally, I'd look to get someone signed beyond 2013, even if a a bit unproven or overpaid. I'd also look to add to Ellsbury and make a package big enough to get a fine SP.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    notin, would you trade

    Ellsbury, Tazawa, Atchison and Aviles
    for
    Vogelsong and Romo?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I have been on the side of "Don't trade Ellsbury" forever but considering our situation I think it is actually possible this winter, but still not likely IMO. If they trade Ellsbury this winter it will be a clear signal that they are throwing in the towel for 2013. I can't see them doing that before the season even starts, even with the draft pick consideration. But who knows? It depends on what else they are able to do for 2013.

    One thing going for the Dodgers part of their deal is that it was one of the very few ways to get players of that caliber right now. The FA market stinks this year and who was going to trade aplayer of Adrian Gonzalez's stature unless a ton of top prospects were involved. If money was no object ( to a degree ) they did get several players who may yet help them get a championship or 2, just before they sign their mega TV deal ( which is still not done if I remember correctly ).

    All that said, I still like that deal a lot as a Sox fan.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Brentz is getting some added AAA play as is Linares with the PawSox making it to the AAA finals against Charlotte after dispensing with S-WB in 4 games.

    Brentz will be playing in the Arizona Fall League so he will get some added visability as the Sox formulate next years rookie class. 

    Brentz has done well at all levels--pretty good defensively--I would definitly consider him ahead of Sweeney on the Sox outfield depth chart. Move Ross to left as was suggested. Trade Ells and sign Bourn or Victorino or commit to Bradley.

    I like the idea of trading for VMart, if available. I like the idea of trying to sign Napoli. I would be inclined to keep Salty and trade Lava.

    I would keep Gomez--I would give him all the playing time at first and have Loney as a def. replacement for the remainder of the season. If Gomez plays in 20 more games against some pretty good pitching down the stretch we'll see if he can produce significantly enough to keep him or have him as trade bait.

    Hopefully Sands will show whether he can play 1 B in winter ball or in ST.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    notin, would you trade

    Ellsbury, Tazawa, Atchison and Aviles
    for
    Vogelsong and Romo?



    No.

    I get why Vogelsong is a good target, but he is surviving in a pitcher-friendly situtation.

     I think he gets crushed in Fenway.  Romo, I like, and thought Lowrie/Romo last eyar awas a decent move....

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    notin, would you trade

    Ellsbury, Tazawa, Atchison and Aviles
    for
    Vogelsong and Romo?



    No.

    I get why Vogelsong is a good target, but he is surviving in a pitcher-friendly situtation.

     I think he gets crushed in Fenway.  Romo, I like, and thought Lowrie/Romo last eyar awas a decent move....

     





    I'm not so sure he'd get that much worse pitching in Fenway and vs the DH more often. He has a 3.67 road ERA (1.26 WHIP) in 2012 and a 3.57 ERA in 2013. If he could give us a 3.80 road ERA and 4.00 home ERA, for the two years he is under team control it would be worth the deal along with Romo's 2 arb years remaining.

    Maybe we can do better by getting a player under team control beyond 2014 or expand the trade to try and get Hector Sanchez or some other prospect.

    I think Ellsbury might be a target for SF and their weak offesne.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    My guess is that Salty or Lava will be traded (my money's on Salty) this winter as part of a larger package to get a higher quality player under team control beyond 2013 and hopefully beyond 2014 as well.

    Here's how I look at it: there are several contending teams with a very bad catching situation. They could improve by getting either Salty or Lava, yes, even a Lava that may not be fully ready for MLB catching. Here are the worst catcher by WAR teams in MLb right now:
    1) NYM
    2) Cubs
    3) TBR
    4) OAK
    5) PITT
    6) COL
    7) TEX
    8) HOU
    9) SD
    10) WSH
    11) NYY
    13) LAA
    16) SEA

    As you can see, many of these teams might trade nice prospects or a ML player for a package of some of these players who will be FAs after 2013 or too old to count on for 2014 and beyond:

    Ellsbury, Salty, Aviles (FA after 2014), Sweeney, Breslow, Atchison, Hill, and even perhaps Aceves who seems to be wearing out his welcome here very quickly.

    None of these guys are in our plans for 2014, unless we extend them soon, so we could look to deal most or all of them to set ourselves up better for 2014 and beyond.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    It is interesting that Ortiz is not coming back this year. Probably insuring that he is worth a top pick if he walks. Considering our situation what is the point? Make a qualifying offer and hope he walks. Take the pick.

    We have what looks like a disaster roster right now. What the heck happened? My vote is a near total reset.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Don't sleep on Anthonly Ranaudo.  He may come back strong in 2013 and find himself in Pawtucket soon, which may put him non track for 2014 with a chance for a cup of coffee next year.

    Brentz looks strong at AAA after a slow start, I like his upward mobility of adjusting to hire levels. If this continues he may be MLB ready by mid 2013.  Much like 2012 Middlebrooks, also like Will he is striking out and walking little but that should be of little concern if he can hit.  

    The sox farm is stacked and it's top talent is only just starting to reach mid levels and higher, with payroll flexibility we should be competitive again very soon. 
     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It is interesting that Ortiz is not coming back this year. Probably insuring that he is worth a top pick if he walks. Considering our situation what is the point? Make a qualifying offer and hope he walks. Take the pick. 

    I think we'd need to offer him about $12M, he'd have to refuse, and someone would have to sign him for us to get a pick. I'm not sure anyone else will offer Papi more than $12M.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from curlyhoward77. Show curlyhoward77's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    This might not be in the right discussion but .... 
    Going forward to 2013. 1st thing. Get rid of the entire field staff. Valentine? I think we all agree. Farrell? Why pay compensation for a next to last place manager? What has he done in that chair?  The Sox need new blood, same as the 'old' blood. Hire Dwight Evans as their Manager. No experience you say? The current guy has tons and what good did that do? No experience? How about Robin Ventura? He's done OK this year. Evans would be a players manager and knows the organization and is familiar with the players.
    Get rid of Magdelan (sic?). I swear, the Sox lead the league in weak ground balls! Get a HOF hitter in there. Say Jim Rice. 
    The pitching coach. Who is it now anyway? How about Jason Veritek? We all know how well he handles pitchers. He's well respected and can relate to the players. 
    As far as players go, let's stop renting free agents. They should have signed Beltre & Martinez. They should sign Ross, Ortiz & Ellsbury (if possible, see Boras). Sign Posednik. Good veteran presence. Would come cheap.
    Get a shortstop! If it's Iglesias then commit to him. Teach him to hit. If not then who? 
    1st base. Big question mark. Is it Loney? Maybe. 
    I'm not real familiar with players in the farm system, but if that's where the answers are, let's get 'em ready cause they are certainly needed.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It is interesting that Ortiz is not coming back this year. Probably insuring that he is worth a top pick if he walks. Considering our situation what is the point? Make a qualifying offer and hope he walks. Take the pick. 

    I think we'd need to offer him about $12M, he'd have to refuse, and someone would have to sign him for us to get a pick. I'm not sure anyone else will offer Papi more than $12M.

     



    I'd prefer to not gamble, and I'm a gambler by nature.  Decline arb, and politely tell him that we'll be glad to match any reasonable offer.  If someone goes crazy, hasta la vista.  But I think someone will offer ~ $16-18M/2.  And I'd be okay with that.  If it doesn't quite work out, consider a payment for his contributions to the team's two WSC's.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ellesbury to the Orioles for the 1st or 2nd best prospect. Markakis is down for perhaps most if not all the remaining games, play-offs included. O's need a lead-off hitter for the play-offs.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Ellesbury to the Orioles for the 1st or 2nd best prospect. Markakis is down for perhaps most if not all the remaining games, play-offs included. O's need a lead-off hitter for the play-offs.



    Ellsbury woiuldnt be on the PO roster...Players moved AFTER aug 31st cant be on the playoff roster...
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I just realized that when I was reading the Orioles forum.... a few people there already were on to my idea for Elles. Won't happen due to the deadline as you say.

    Would have been sweet to land their best prospect and watch Elles propell the O's over New York.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    I just realized that when I was reading the Orioles forum.... a few people there already were on to my idea for Elles. Won't happen due to the deadline as you say.

    Would have been sweet to land their best prospect and watch Elles propell the O's over New York.



    Im sure we wouldve got a good pitcher for him...
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It is interesting that Ortiz is not coming back this year. Probably insuring that he is worth a top pick if he walks. Considering our situation what is the point? Make a qualifying offer and hope he walks. Take the pick. 

    I think we'd need to offer him about $12M, he'd have to refuse, and someone would have to sign him for us to get a pick. I'm not sure anyone else will offer Papi more than $12M.

    RedsoxProspects:

    I haven't researched what exactly a "qualifying offer" would be with the new CBA. Do you think it would be $12 mil after search research Moon, or are you thinking past arbitration procedures? The guy put up great numbers this year. $12 mil sounds like a reasonable offer to me. If he takes it maybe we get a solid performance from him again. If he doesn't maybe we get a pick. It doesn't help that his health status is suspect now though. It might be wise not to offer him much and not worry about the pick. I just want that pick bad though!

     
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