A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Just bought my Elizabeth Warren Tshirt and car magnet. Can't understand why she isn't demolishing Brown up there. It reminds me of high school when the popular kid won elections even though they didn't care at all about helping the school. Good looking guy who drives a pick up and knows Boston area sports. Says what we want to hear but votes against our interest and even potentially allows the nut cases to get back in charge again in the Senate. God help us. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    It is interesting that Ortiz is not coming back this year. Probably insuring that he is worth a top pick if he walks. Considering our situation what is the point? Make a qualifying offer and hope he walks. Take the pick. 

    I think we'd need to offer him about $12M, he'd have to refuse, and someone would have to sign him for us to get a pick. I'm not sure anyone else will offer Papi more than $12M.

    RedsoxProspects:

    I haven't researched what exactly a "qualifying offer" would be with the new CBA. Do you think it would be $12 mil after search research Moon, or are you thinking past arbitration procedures? The guy put up great numbers this year. $12 mil sounds like a reasonable offer to me. If he takes it maybe we get a solid performance from him again. If he doesn't maybe we get a pick. It doesn't help that his health status is suspect now though. It might be wise not to offer him much and not worry about the pick. I just want that pick bad though!


    I have heard the arb qualifying offer must be at about $12-13M to qualify for a comp pick if the player walks. I'd offer Papi that, if he turns down a two year deal with incentives. Then, I'd tell him to come back to us with his top offer and we may match it or not.

    I want Papi to reire in Boston. He should. He is a legend and a hero. However, I do not think he can lead us to the playoffs next year, even if he has his best ever career year, so in terms of looking to 2014 and beyond, if he walks, the draft pick offers better longterm hope than keeping Papi around for a year or two more.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Moon et al, the only big contracts I favor at this point are for pitchers but younger models who are on the cusp of their best years, A's or Giants' young pitchers have been used as examples.  Moon, thanks for that Hector Sanchez suggestion--he might be a great DH as well as catcher, backup catcher.  I think Giants have used him at 1st.

    I favor trading Ells for good young pitching or hitting.  He doesn't look much like last year's model right now.

    I agree with offering Papi 2 @ 24 mil.  If he doesn't take it, move on.  I think with advancing age, other injuries may take away from playing time.

    I lean to keeping Aceves and returning him to a role where he was successful and knew what was expected.  Many kids don't behave when there is a substitute teacher.

    I favor trading Salty and keeping Lava.  I know empirical evidence doesn't support this, but that's my view.  Sounds like we've got another good one coming.

    I favor trading Iggy if we can get something for him in a package.

    I think our most important decision now is who the manager will be next year.  If we get a good managing team working together and communicating system values, teaching fundamental, aggressive baseball, then we could be "competitive" (scrappy) next year and going for a playoff spot, building for 2014. laying the groundwork. 

    Speaking of "system values" this next comment I've been wanting to share but it's out of place here.  Watching every game this summer until my return, I got to see some patterns.  One of ours is "grinding it out" at bat, seeing a lot of pitches, wearing the pitcher down, etc.
    Not quite so much this year because of injuries and scrubs and fill ins not being as patient as the regulars.  But...I think I saw EVERY FIRST PITCH FOR THE SUMMER go by and 99% of them were strikes, so I guess the other teams know our philosophy too.  BV said last week about someone's at bat,  yeah, he let the strikes go by and swung at some bad pitches.  That's what I saw a lot this summer.  Time for a change?  Just asking.  Sometimes there's only one good pitch per at bat, and we're getting one every time and ignoring it.  And on the flip side, I think our pitching gurus had a philosophy too about what to throw on a full count in July and August--I swear off the plate  breaking balls were thrown about 75% of the time which is great except for one thing--they were off the plate.  Going back to our hitting, Pedro C. was about the only guy who didn't "grind it out", often going for the first pitch and he's consistently hit over .300 all summer...

     

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    There’s a second change to keep in mind as the trade deadline approaches, MLBTR has confirmed. Teams that keep their players now obtain one compensatory draft pick for losing a top free agent, whereas they previously obtained two selections.


    Pay no attention to softy's rants. For a supposed lawyer, he has a hard time with even basic reading comprehension.


    If a team loses a player who turned down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, the player's original team will obtain a single compensatory selection between the first and second rounds of the draft (the qualifying offers, which are based on the average salary of baseball’s 125 best-paid players, are expected to be worth $12.5MM or so).

    All we need to do is offer Papi at least the salary of the average top 125 players in MLB. This has been fuigured to be about $12.5M per year.


    Meanwhile, the team that signs the free agent will lose a first round selection (though the top ten picks are protected). However, that lost first round pick no longer goes to the player’s former team. Instead, the pick disappears and the first round becomes condensed.


    Here's where softy went off the rails. he assumed that because the signing team loses a pick, it goes to the team losing the player... WRONG!

    The other factor is...

    For example, if the Brewers traded Greinke, his new team won’t be eligible for draft pick compensation. If the Brewers held onto Greinke and made him a qualifying offer after the season only to see him sign elsewhere, Milwaukee would havel obtained a selection between the first and second rounds of the 2013 draft. The team that signed Greinke  loses its first round selection, but that selection will no longer go to the Brewers under the sport’s new rules.

    Fewer players now bring in draft picks and those that do translate into one selection, rather than two. The changes will lead to to a drop in compensatory draft picks and an entirely new trade deadline dynamic.

    Ellsbury will lose his attached comp pick if he is traded once the 2013 season begins. If we trade him before the season begins, his value will be much higher for the receiving team. With limited comp picks these days, this pick is "gold".

    Since we are very likely not going to be serious competitors in 2013, and Ellsbury's contract expires after 2013, it really comes down to this:


    One season of Ellsbury on a team not ready to compete and the draft pick we'd get if we keep Ellsbury, offer him a "qualifying offer" (the average salary of the top 125 players in MLB-maybe $13-14M/yr next year), and he signs elsewhere.

    vs

    Whatever we can get in return from a contending team that will get a more valuable 2013 season from Ellsbury (by virtue of them competing and needing him more than we do) and the comp pick after he walks. 

    To me, the value we'd get in return for Ellsbury is very likely to ourperform the draft pick we'd get after Ellsbury walks.

     









     

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    bump past the idiot
     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Here is one a bit wild and extensive idea on what we could do to improve our team for 2013, but more importantly for 2014 and beyond:

    1) Offer Papi $13M/1. If he walks and signs elsewhere we get a comp pick. If not, we keep our legend where he belongs: retiring in Fenway.  Chances are nobody will come close to offering him that, so I get the argument about lowballing him, but this is Papi we are talking about, folks.

    2) Sign Brandon McCarthy at $26M/3 or $32M/4. He will turn 30 next July. Yes, he has an injury history, but I'd prefer this gamble than Greinke at about $20M/yr. 

    3) Sign Cody Ross at $20M/3. Turns 32 this December. He is a great fit for Fenway, especially as a LF'er and future DH when Papi retires. 

    4) Sign Hiruyoki Nakajima (SS) according to notin, no posting fee is needed.

    5)
    Trade: Jacoby Ellsbury &  Junichi Tazawa
    to SF
    For: Hector Sanchez (Switch-hitting catcher who turns 23 in November and is pre-arb)& Sergio Romo (Turns 30 in March and has 2 arb years left).

    6)
    Trade: Mike Aviles, Bryce Brentz, Jose Iglesias, Garin Cecchini  , & Henry Owens or Anthony Ranaudo

    For: Justin Upton (Just turned 25 & is under team control for 3 years @ 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M )

    7)
    Trade: Ryan Lavarnway,  Brandon Jacobs, Jose Vinicio, and Sean Coyle

    For: Brett Anderson (LHP who turns 25 in February & is under team control for 3 years)  13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)

     

    8)
    Trade: Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Kalish, , and  Che-Hsuan Lin
    to Nats
    For: Mike Morse (Turns 31 in March makes $7M in 2013 and then is a FA: a bridge to Gomez, Travis Shaw, Jerry Sands, Bogaerts who could be moved to 1B)

    We keep Bogaertts, Bradley & Barnes, and have this for 2013 and beyond...

    C: Salty / Sanchez  (Swihart)
    1B: Morse  /Gomez or Sands (Shaw)
    2B: Pedey / DeJesus
    3B: Midds / Ciriaco (Valencia)
    SS: Nakajima / Bogaerts (Marrero/ T-W Lin)
    LF: Ross / Linares
    CF: Sweeney / Bradley
    RF: Upton /  de la Cruz
    DH: Ortiz

    SP1: Buch
    SP2: Lest
    SP3: Anderson
    SP4: McCarthey
    SP5: Lackey
    SP6: Morales/Doubront (de la Rosa/ Webster/ Barnes/ Workman)

    CL: Bailey
    RP: Romo:
    RP: Breslow
    RP: Mortensen
    RP: Miller (Stewart)
    RP: Hill   (Carpenter)
    RP: Melancon/ Bard / Atchison  (Wilson/ Beato)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I offer Papi 13mm/1yr with a vesting option for 2014 with AB's or games played. I dont mind givng him the contract, even if it is just a thank you. But I believe he WILL, and can anchor this offense for the next year or 2.
    Sign Ross to play LF for the next 2 years at 12-14mm.
    try out Tazawa, Mortenson, and Morales forthe 5 spot in the rotation next year.
    I do like the idea of Vmart at 1b for the next couple years until one of our guys proves himself (Shaw, Sands, Gomez?)
    And heres my crazy trade proposal. Ask the Phillies if they will eat some cash on the Cliff lee contract and offer them Felix Doubront. If we can get Lee's contract at 20mm or under for the remainder of the deal I think that could be a solid move. Hes only got 3 years left and could be the much needed leader this young staff needs. He still has good numbers this year, just on a bad ballclub. I believe he can maintain his production for another 3 years. Never hurt, gives you 30+ starts a year with 200IP. a ton of K's and very little BB's. Just turned 34 2 weeks ago. never been a power pitcher that has had to learn to be a finesse pitcher...He would be a solid pickup for high $$ and low years...Wouldnt handcuff the team financially and would give them the stability and someone the young guys could really look up to and learn from.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I would also see what Brentz does in the fall league and give him an invite to st with the possibility of making the starting RF spot. at this point (going to be 24 inOct) we would have him until hes 30 yrs old unless we offer him a deal a la Pedey, Lester, Buchholz...
    If were looking to compete but not expecting a lot in 2013, we should see what a couple of the kids, who are about ready, have to offer.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Maybe even sign Swisher to play 1b if the price and years are good...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!



    Id love to see the A's, O's, Nationals and Cincinatti in it this year...An O's/Nationals WS would be nice...Talk about a long awaited local battle...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!




    I feel like an idiot.  I picked the A's to finish in last place.  

    Billy Beane has proven me wrong.  
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'm rooting for the A's and O's.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from iamme17. Show iamme17's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    And heres my crazy trade proposal. Ask the Phillies if they will eat some cash on the Cliff lee contract and offer them Felix Doubront. If we can get Lee's contract at 20mm or under for the remainder of the deal I think that could be a solid move.

    [/QUOTE]The dodgers claimed Lee in the waiver wire but the phill's refused it.So instead of letting the dodgers pay his entire salary we'll ask them to pick up a piece of his salary and offer them a hack like doubrant with his 5 plus era.They'd hang up in about 2 seconds.


     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Lot of information, Carmine

     

    Too much for you to read in 6 hours?

     

    At least I didn't make my post a thread title.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Maybe even sign Swisher to play 1b if the price and years are good...

     

    I understand the need to sign some "bridge players", and I do think we will make a few signings like Swisher, but I am more interested in our moves that strengthen us for 2014 and beyond.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!



    Id love to see the A's, O's, Nationals and Cincinatti in it this year...An O's/Nationals WS would be nice...Talk about a long awaited local battle...

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That would be good! It had not dawned on me.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!




    I feel like an idiot.  I picked the A's to finish in last place.  

    Billy Beane has proven me wrong.  

     

    Not anything against the players or management but they are catching lightening in the bottle.  Good for them.... the A's continue to be one of baseballs most successful franchises (on the field) since 1970.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!



    Id love to see the A's, O's, Nationals and Cincinatti in it this year...An O's/Nationals WS would be nice...Talk about a long awaited local battle...

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That would be good! It had not dawned on me.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    How about the A's vs the Giants?

     

    or, the unlikely LAA vs LAD?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just bought my Elizabeth Warren Tshirt and car magnet. Can't understand why she isn't demolishing Brown up there. It reminds me of high school when the popular kid won elections even though they didn't care at all about helping the school. Good looking guy who drives a pick up and knows Boston area sports. Says what we want to hear but votes against our interest and even potentially allows the nut cases to get back in charge again in the Senate. God help us. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Way to stay away from politics. She's not demolishing Brown, in spite of the many millions the DNC is throwing her way, because the electorate in Mass is smart enough to recognize that Brown is doing an outstanding job. Maybe you don't mind paying for other folks' birth control and trans-gender surgery, but I find it offensive.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Let's stay on topic.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Oakland A's are punishing the Angles, love it!



    Id love to see the A's, O's, Nationals and Cincinatti in it this year...An O's/Nationals WS would be nice...Talk about a long awaited local battle...

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That would be good! It had not dawned on me.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    How about the A's vs the Giants?

     

    or, the unlikely LAA vs LAD?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    dont like nationals.

    a's giants id go for

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Maybe even sign Swisher to play 1b if the price and years are good...

     

    I understand the need to sign some "bridge players", and I do think we will make a few signings like Swisher, but I am more interested in our moves that strengthen us for 2014 and beyond.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    " I am more interested in our moves that strengthen us for 2014 and beyond. "

    been saying this since a couple weeks prior to all star break

     

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