A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    if sweeney is a starter on this team..i'm going to be pissed...if we lose every game next season i would not care...the above lineup would make me sick...



    Sweeney makes a nice 4th OF'er, but I agree. He should not start.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With Papi in the fold for 2 years, I see Lava being squeezed out of a ML slot, unless we trade Salty. I see less need for 2 years of Ross, unless we plug him in LF and let him DH when Papi sist vs some LHPs.

    Here is the updated depth chart:

      25 Man                        ML ready            More than a year away

    DH Ortiz (1B)                  (Sands)                

    C  Salty/Butler               Lava                      Swihart/Vazquez

    1B Sands/Gomez                                          Shaw

    2B Pedroia                       De Jesus               Coyle

    3B Middlebrooks/ Valencia                         Cecchini/Vitek

    SS Iggy/Ciriaco              (De Jesus)            Bogaerts/Vinicio/Marrero/Lin

    LF (Sands)/Nava            Hassan/Hazelbaker   Jacobs/de la Cruz

    CF Ellsbury/Kalish          Linares                 Bradley  

    RF Sweeney                      Brentz        

    SP  Lester/Buchholtz/Doubront/Lackey/Morales (RP: Tazawa/Mortensen)

         ML ready: de la Rosa/Webster/Stewart/Workman/Britton?/Hernandez?

         Year away: Barnes/Owens/Ranaudo/Pimental/many others

    RP   Bailey/Aceves/Breslow/Miller/Atchison

         ML Ready: R Hill/Bard/Melancon/Carpenter/Beato/Rosario/Wilson

         Year away: Fields/de la Torre/Kurcz/Balcom-Miller/Ruiz/and others

     



    Moon..forget Sands...he is a AAAA player. Not even an option for lf, DH, or 1b...unless of course we re 30 games under 500 again Nxt yr. You also forgot Kalish. He is a better player than Sweeney, Sands and Nava for one of those of spots. Not cf, unless we trade ells



    I know there will be additions that change several slots above, but this is the way it is now.

    Sands is as good as Gomez (1B), Nava or Kalish (LF). He may be AAAA, but then so are Nva, Gomez, kalish and Sweeney.



    Sands isn't,teven close....by any stretch of the imagination to Kalish, or for that matter Nava in lf or rf. Both Kalish and Nava are plus defenders and high obp guys that can run bases. I really don,t know what your infatuation is with Sands.....yes, he is Gomez, a AAAA player that is limited. neither one should fit into our short, orlong term plans. Kalish just needs to stay healthy, annnnd get ab,s. yes....Nava is a 4 th of....but a darn good one. Sands and Gomez are not close. Please stop putting them in ANY LINEUP....for Nxt yr or future. It is a making you look bad...and I do enjoy reading your posts fwiw...but I don,t think you ever played the game, or else you would understand what I am talking about. Keep posting, cause you do say some good things

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Moon played the game for many years. And IMO knows it well.

    True, Sands is 26 and hasn't proved anything except he can hit in AAA. Some guys don't turn it on til 28. See Ryan Ludwick and Jayson Werth.

    Maybe Sands is on this list, maybe not. Unless he gets regular playing time we will never know. Maybe its in Boston, maybe not. The list Moon gave is just what players we have at this point in time, not necessarily who he would start.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    if sweeney is a starter on this team..i'm going to be pissed...if we lose every game next season i would not care...the above lineup would make me sick...



    Sweeney makes a nice 4th OF'er, but I agree. He should not start.




    Sweeney is a great defender. Not much offense and I agree should not be a starter on this team, but he has value on defense without a doubt.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Sands isn't,teven close....by any stretch of the imagination to Kalish, or for that matter Nava in lf or rf. Both Kalish and Nava are plus defenders and high obp guys that can run bases. I really don,t know what your infatuation is with Sands.....yes, he is Gomez, a AAAA player that is limited. neither one should fit into our short, orlong term plans. Kalish just needs to stay healthy, annnnd get ab,s. yes....Nava is a 4 th of....but a darn good one. Sands and Gomez are not close. Please stop putting them in ANY LINEUP....for Nxt yr or future. It is a making you look bad...and I do enjoy reading your posts fwiw...but I don,t think you ever played the game, or else you would understand what I am talking about. Keep posting, cause you do say some good things

    1) I am not putting Sands in our line-up. I stated that we will make some moves that bounce him and others out of their current depth chart slots. As of right now, Sands is close to Gomez at 1B and close to Nava/Kalish in LF.

    2) Just because somebody's stats are inflated by playing in the PCL, does not mean he can't be better than AAAA. There are plenty of players from that league that have done well in MLB.

    3) Right now, Soxprospects.com has Sands ahead of Nava in LF. For some reason they have Pods #1. They have Kalish as the CF #2 guy.

    4) He just turned 25 and still has upside potential to get better than you think he is.

     

    I'm not counting on Sands for anything this year. I hope Ben is not counting on him, Gomez or Nava for any meaningful role, if he is serious about making us a contender in 2013.

    Gomez had close to a 25% K rate in 2012 and in the minors, a .746 OPS, and a .652 OPS in September, 2012. I'm not sure why you have so much faith in him. He was thrown to the curb by a team (ATL) who is well known for judging young talent pretty well.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Bump

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    i understand moon...this is a depth chart of what we have now...things will change...and i hope it change for the good..because we have some crap as starters right now...lol

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    We will probably end up with one of these guys starting in April: Gomez (1B), Sands (1B/LF), Nava (LF), Kalish (LF/RF), Iggy (SS) or Ciriaco (SS). If we end up with 2 or more, then it is surely a "bridge year", and all other moves and decisions should be mde accordingly... with 2014 and beyond in our sights.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Key Rule 5 players need to be added to the 40 man roster by Nov 19th:

    Allen Webster

    Alex Wilson

    Josh Fields

    Alex Hassan

    Dan Butler

    Jeremy Hazelbaker

    Jose de la Torre

    Balcom-Miller & Rosario

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Key Rule 5 players need to be added to the 40 man roster by Nov 19th:

    Allen Webster

    Alex Wilson

    Josh Fields

    Alex Hassan

    Dan Butler

    Jeremy Hazelbaker

    Jose de la Torre

    Balcom-Miller & Rosario




    Some have questioned the releasing of Michael Olmstead. With guys like Andy Laroche (3b) being a ML FA, guys like Valencia need to be on the 40-man so they have the depth they need at AAA. Also, I would have chosen most of the guys on this list over Olmstead out of need or just expectations. It was a hard decision, but there will be tougher ones in the coming weeks and especially next year.

    Heres a list of all the ML FA this year.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/11/minor-league-free-agents-2012/

    There might be a couple good depth signings on here for us. Our old buddy MDC is on here from the NYY organization.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I still think we need to make a couple 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deals for two reasons:

    1) We are too prospect quantity heavy vs quality heavy.

    2) Make future roster moves easier.

    3) Not lose quality players to Rule 5.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I still think we need to make a couple 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deals for two reasons:

    1) We are too prospect quantity heavy vs quality heavy.

    2) Make future roster moves easier.

    3) Not lose quality players to Rule 5.




    Some good solid moves that will help the team. Doesnt need to be blockbuster moves, just quality players that will produce and will be a good fit to compliment our guys already here.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I still think we need to make a couple 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deals for two reasons:

    1) We are too prospect quantity heavy vs quality heavy.

    2) Make future roster moves easier.

    3) Not lose quality players to Rule 5.




    Some good solid moves that will help the team. Doesnt need to be blockbuster moves, just quality players that will produce and will be a good fit to compliment our guys already here.



    I agree. Some simple 2 or 3 for 1 deals can increase our quality and make room for the many lower-mid level prospects to stay in our system.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'm just glad that posters are saying we don't need to make alot of moves. I mean, we obviously have more money now so we can, but it sure makes the team that was hammered by the press seem less like a bunch of losers. Maybe people are finally making the connection that we had alot of injuries.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think the primary goal of this team has to be to put together a starting rotation that is at least in the top 5 in the AL by 2014.  Everything else can be addressed but the rotation is the most formidable challenge.  Elite starters are a precious commodity, and incredibly expensive unless they are young and from within your organization.  How many Cy Young calibre starters has this organization produced?  Lonborg for one year, and Clemens.  Clemens is the only true ace we've turned out in 50 years.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'm just glad that posters are saying we don't need to make alot of moves. I mean, we obviously have more money now so we can, but it sure makes the team that was hammered by the press seem less like a bunch of losers. Maybe people are finally making the connection that we had alot of injuries. -kim

    While all true, I think this team needs to start planning on injuries or "down years" as part of the game. Most teams that have won a ring recently experienced some serious injury issues during their seasons. Last year, I took a lot of grief for suggesting that we should not count on our big three starters to all have healthy and productive full seasons in 2012. They had never done it before, and we should not count on all three. I advocated trading for a top of rotation starter (#1-2 slot type) to help us in case one of the big 3 faltered, and if one did not, then we'd be golden. 

    Now that we got rid of many of the cronic injury players, maybe things will change, but one thing has not, to be highly competitive, we need 3-4 solid and dependable starting pitchers. (see my reply to Hfxsoxnut below)

     

    I think the primary goal of this team has to be to put together a starting rotation that is at least in the top 5 in the AL by 2014.  Everything else can be addressed but the rotation is the most formidable challenge.  Elite starters are a precious commodity, and incredibly expensive unless they are young and from within your organization.  How many Cy Young calibre starters has this organization produced?  Lonborg for one year, and Clemens.  Clemens is the only true ace we've turned out in 50 years.

    So true, but we have had some success picking up a couple of guys who worked out well for us:

    Tiant, Pedro, Schill, & Beckett (briefly).

    We do seem to have a deeper pitching farm this year, but one never knows if any will come close to being an ace. Right now, it looks like we have several pitchers with pretty good upside, but no true ace or even a relaible solid #2 slot guy. We have 2 guys that have the potential to be a top slot 2 starter (Buch & Lester), but they have had injury or consistency issues of late. We have a number of decent 4/5 slot pitchers, but having to use 3 of them does not bode well for our immediate future (Lackey, Doubront, Morales, Mortensen, Tazawa, de la Rosa, Webster...)

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Things seem to be coming together on the coaching staff, and a top requirement seems to be "chemistry" or "relationship," understandable after the last debacle.  I am so hopeful Nieves will be a good hire and in reading about him he seems to have a plan.  The last two guys on the surface seemed to be pretty laissez faire.

    Moon, in light of what you say above about pitching, shouldn't we be looking for a young #1--I know the most expensive commodity in baseball--but having #2's and #4"s doesn't bode well for next year or the year after.  And do we have a #! coming along?  Ben C. said today that we have to improve from within, but it seems like we've been waiting several years for Lester and Buch to take that next step.  I think the most encouraging thing is everyone seems to be saying pitching is first priority....

    One last thought.  I think the next pitching coach has  much to work on in the mental arena of the pitchers.  Maybe it was injury and frustration and losing building up, but some of our guys would really get off track on one missed call by an umpire--Lester, Doobie.  Watching the Giants through the playoffs, there were some really bad calls but their wheels didn't come off like Lester's at the end of the summer.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Things seem to be coming together on the coaching staff, and a top requirement seems to be "chemistry" or "relationship," understandable after the last debacle.  I am so hopeful Nieves will be a good hire and in reading about him he seems to have a plan.  The last two guys on the surface seemed to be pretty laissez faire.

    Moon, in light of what you say above about pitching, shouldn't we be looking for a young #1--I know the most expensive commodity in baseball--but having #2's and #4"s doesn't bode well for next year or the year after.  And do we have a #! coming along?  Ben C. said today that we have to improve from within, but it seems like we've been waiting several years for Lester and Buch to take that next step.  I think the most encouraging thing is everyone seems to be saying pitching is first priority....

    One last thought.  I think the next pitching coach has  much to work on in the mental arena of the pitchers.  Maybe it was injury and frustration and losing building up, but some of our guys would really get off track on one missed call by an umpire--Lester, Doobie.  Watching the Giants through the playoffs, there were some really bad calls but their wheels didn't come off like Lester's at the end of the summer.




    I'm not sure Barnes, Webster or de la Rosa can or ever will become a number 1, but we can hope. 

    I think we need to go outside the system to improve our odds. It's not easy finding the next Pedro or Tiant or Schill, but there are some young starters who have #2 slot upside, and having 3-4 #2's is better than just having 2- 2's. I like Brett Anderson and think we should try our best to trade for him. I think Brandon McCarthy and Marcum would be good gambles on younger arms (in terms of the normal FA starter). I think A Sanchez could be solid #2. 

    As for #1's? I think only Cliff Leee is available, but I'd have to see a big chunk of his contract paid to even think about a blockbuster for him.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Things seem to be coming together on the coaching staff, and a top requirement seems to be "chemistry" or "relationship," understandable after the last debacle.  I am so hopeful Nieves will be a good hire and in reading about him he seems to have a plan.  The last two guys on the surface seemed to be pretty laissez faire.

    Moon, in light of what you say above about pitching, shouldn't we be looking for a young #1--I know the most expensive commodity in baseball--but having #2's and #4"s doesn't bode well for next year or the year after.  And do we have a #! coming along?  Ben C. said today that we have to improve from within, but it seems like we've been waiting several years for Lester and Buch to take that next step.  I think the most encouraging thing is everyone seems to be saying pitching is first priority....

    One last thought.  I think the next pitching coach has  much to work on in the mental arena of the pitchers.  Maybe it was injury and frustration and losing building up, but some of our guys would really get off track on one missed call by an umpire--Lester, Doobie.  Watching the Giants through the playoffs, there were some really bad calls but their wheels didn't come off like Lester's at the end of the summer.




    Hey critter,

    Its hard to predict the next "Ace" of the staff. We could do well by keeping what we have and not trading them away. Also like Moon stated, go and find guys like Anderson that could potentially be a 2...

    Personally, Id be ok with a rotation full of Lesters and Buchholz'. A group of 2's will win a ton of games. If we stumble upon a #1 pitcher (2013 draft?) All the better.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Hey critter,

    Its hard to predict the next "Ace" of the staff. We could do well by keeping what we have and not trading them away. Also like Moon stated, go and find guys like Anderson that could potentially be a 2...

    Personally, Id be ok with a rotation full of Lesters and Buchholz'. A group of 2's will win a ton of games. If we stumble upon a #1 pitcher (2013 draft?) All the better.

     

    Having five number 2's is certainly the best way to go if getting a number 1 would cripple us in too many ways, however, paying $15M/yr for 5 number 2's would be about 40% of the luxury tax limit budget. That severely limits what we can do with the other 20 players (actually, the other 35 players). Yes, Lester and Buch are paid less than $15M/yr, but guys like Sanchez and Greinke will cost more than that. 

    That's why getting guys like B Anderson, McCarthy and Marcum make more sense to me.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Hey critter,

    Its hard to predict the next "Ace" of the staff. We could do well by keeping what we have and not trading them away. Also like Moon stated, go and find guys like Anderson that could potentially be a 2...

    Personally, Id be ok with a rotation full of Lesters and Buchholz'. A group of 2's will win a ton of games. If we stumble upon a #1 pitcher (2013 draft?) All the better.

     

    Having five number 2's is certainly the best way to go if getting a number 1 would cripple us in too many ways, however, paying $15M/yr for 5 number 2's would be about 40% of the luxury tax limit budget. That severely limits what we can do with the other 20 players (actually, the other 35 players). Yes, Lester and Buch are paid less than $15M/yr, but guys like Sanchez and Greinke will cost more than that. 

    That's why getting guys like B Anderson, McCarthy and Marcum make more sense to me.




    I agree. Sanchez is not worth 6/90 IMO. There are guys out there that can get you 15 wins for less...We have 4 in our rotation who are very capable of it. Doubie hasnt yet, but the way he finished the year it wouldnt surprise me if he did.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I am not as high on doubie (pun intended) as others here. His WHIP shows he has a long way to go to be counted on to win 15.

    I like Morales better. I even think Mortensen or Tazawa could do better in 2013 or 2014 that Doubie.

    I think his stock is high- perhaps as high as it gets. I'd deal him this winter, but want to replace him with better options like b Anderson, McCarthy, Marcum or a couple other choices.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I am not as high on doubie (pun intended) as others here. His WHIP shows he has a long way to go to be counted on to win 15.

    I like Morales better. I even think Mortensen or Tazawa could do better in 2013 or 2014 that Doubie.

    I think his stock is high- perhaps as high as it gets. I'd deal him this winter, but want to replace him with better options like b Anderson, McCarthy, Marcum or a couple other choices.




    If we could get a solid return with Felix, Id be all in. Lots of team would be interested in a LHP whos under control for a few years with better than average potential. He showed some really good swing and miss stuff in September.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'd like to see this:

     

    Doubront or Morales

    Aceves

    Bradley

    Vinicio or Lin

    For Justin Upton

     

    Morales/Doubront

    Lava

    Cecchini

    Vinicio or Lin

    For Brett Anderson

     

    Gomez & Britton or Pimental

    For K. Morales

     

    Sign: B. McCarthy & S. Marcum

     

    Leaves us with this:

    C Salty/Butler (Swihart)

    1B Morales/Papi (T Shaw/Bogaerts) 

    2B Pedey/deJesus (Coyle)

    3B Middlebrooks (Bogaerts)

    SS Iggy/Ciriaco (Bogaerts/Marrero)

    LF Sands/Nava/Kalish

    CF Ellsbury/Sweeney

    RF Upton (Brentz/Linares)

     

    SP Buch/Lester/Anderson/McCarthy/Marcum/Tazawa/Mortensen/Stewart

         (Webster/de la Rosa/Barnes)

    RP Bailey/Breslow/Miller/Atchison/Bard/Melancon/Hill/Beato/Carpenter

     

    More likely we trade Doubie & Brentz for A Gordon, sign E Jackson or A Sanchez, Ross or Ludwick, and maybe LaRoche.

     

     
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