A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    This morning I saw some numbers for Ross at Atlanta--their winning % when he was catching.  Wow, he looks like your kind of catcher, Moon.  Boom, nice to see you back.  What do we want from Pittsburgh?

    It's great to think about the potential of young players, we'd love Lava to become a great catcher and hitter.  But right now I think anyone should be available to trade to improve pitching or for a long term franchise player.  The RS have traded quality catchers before and kept the ship steady.  He hasn't really proved himself yet.  So I wouldn't care which one they trade.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    PS. And they've got another catcher coming...

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    Salty's on the verge of becoming a FA and his "upside" isn't very "upside" in terms of cost or catcher performance. Now that 3 million a year plus for 6 million plus total has been guaranteed to a lifetime backup catcher who never made even half that yearly amount, it couldn't be more obvious that Salty arbitration costs need to be traded. Lavarnway hasn't played enough MLB to know where his MLB production talent ends up.

    Whatever Salty's trade value will be less during the 2013 season. Should they decide to bring him back because of emergency injury, he or someone similar will cost less than what's netted by trading Salty and his 2012 HR total, now.



    I agree, and I think Salty will be traded- not Lava. Salty's stock is way higher than when Theo traded for him.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    Salty's on the verge of becoming a FA and his "upside" isn't very "upside" in terms of cost or catcher performance. Now that 3 million a year plus for 6 million plus total has been guaranteed to a lifetime backup catcher who never made even half that yearly amount, it couldn't be more obvious that Salty arbitration costs need to be traded. Lavarnway hasn't played enough MLB to know where his MLB production talent ends up.

    Whatever Salty's trade value will be less during the 2013 season. Should they decide to bring him back because of emergency injury, he or someone similar will cost less than what's netted by trading Salty and his 2012 HR total, now.



    I agree, and I think Salty will be traded- not Lava. Salty's stock is way higher than when Theo traded for him.




    agree, but Lav has more overall value right now and would net them more of a return.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    Salty's on the verge of becoming a FA and his "upside" isn't very "upside" in terms of cost or catcher performance. Now that 3 million a year plus for 6 million plus total has been guaranteed to a lifetime backup catcher who never made even half that yearly amount, it couldn't be more obvious that Salty arbitration costs need to be traded. Lavarnway hasn't played enough MLB to know where his MLB production talent ends up.

    Whatever Salty's trade value will be less during the 2013 season. Should they decide to bring him back because of emergency injury, he or someone similar will cost less than what's netted by trading Salty and his 2012 HR total, now.



    I agree, and I think Salty will be traded- not Lava. Salty's stock is way higher than when Theo traded for him.




    agree, but Lav has more overall value right now and would net them more of a return.



    I agree, but I guess it all depends on how much Ben likes lava and if he sees him as our longterm catching (or other position) solution. If not, Lava will be dealt, and Salty may even be extended.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    Salty's on the verge of becoming a FA and his "upside" isn't very "upside" in terms of cost or catcher performance. Now that 3 million a year plus for 6 million plus total has been guaranteed to a lifetime backup catcher who never made even half that yearly amount, it couldn't be more obvious that Salty arbitration costs need to be traded. Lavarnway hasn't played enough MLB to know where his MLB production talent ends up.

    Whatever Salty's trade value will be less during the 2013 season. Should they decide to bring him back because of emergency injury, he or someone similar will cost less than what's netted by trading Salty and his 2012 HR total, now.



    I agree, and I think Salty will be traded- not Lava. Salty's stock is way higher than when Theo traded for him.




    agree, but Lav has more overall value right now and would net them more of a return.



    I agree, but I guess it all depends on how much Ben likes lava and if he sees him as our longterm catching (or other position) solution. If not, Lava will be dealt, and Salty may even be extended.




    Now that Ross passed his physical we could see their names involved in trade rumors. Maybe he'll keep Salty and send Lav back to AAA for more defensive work. At this point anything is possible...

    I cant say enough how much I liked the Ross signing. Hes a true leader and a great game caller. I can see him managing a MLB team someday.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I still say we have too many needs to keep 3 catchers of value.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I still say we have too many needs to keep 3 catchers of value.




    I agree, but i can dream :)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'm dreaming too...

    ...of getting some value for one of our catchers at a position of higher need.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 7.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)


    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)


    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$63M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $100M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Rosario

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 7.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)


    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)


    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$63M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $100M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Rosario




    We could realistically spend 40-50M and still have leftovers for the trade deadline in July.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 7.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)


    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)


    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$63M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $100M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Rosario




    We could realistically spend 40-50M and still have leftovers for the trade deadline in July.



    We could spend $60M and still have enough to spend at the break, but I doubt we do.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm dreaming too...

    ...of getting some value for one of our catchers at a position of higher need.



    If this were facebook I'd be pushing the like button right now!

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Is the catching position messed up or what. God knows what will happen. As much as I like Lavarnway, the bumbers last fall were TERRIBLE. Offensively and defensively. 

     

    But I am a man of faith!

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 7.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)


    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)


    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$63M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $100M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Rosario




    We could realistically spend 40-50M and still have leftovers for the trade deadline in July.



    We could spend $60M and still have enough to spend at the break, but I doubt we do.




    Got an email from expitch today. Just finished his book and is doing well.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 7.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)


    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)


    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$63M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $100M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Rosario




    We could realistically spend 40-50M and still have leftovers for the trade deadline in July.



    We could spend $60M and still have enough to spend at the break, but I doubt we do.




    Got an email from expitch today. Just finished his book and is doing well.



    I hope he returns here soon.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Is the catching position messed up or what. God knows what will happen. As much as I like Lavarnway, the bumbers last fall were TERRIBLE. Offensively and defensively. 

     

    But I am a man of faith!

     



    Although our Catcher OPS slipped at the end of the year by playing Lava, we still ended up at 17th (.690). We have greater weaknesses than #17 out of 30.... like almost last in SP'ing, lower LF, lower RF, lower CF, lower SS...

    We were 4th in Catcher HRs (32).

    10th in C SLG% (.411).

    13th in Catcher RBI (88).

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    We end the 2013 season like this...

    Tue, 9/17 Orioles TBD MLB.TV       Wed, 9/18 Orioles TBD MLB.TV       Thu, 9/19 Orioles TBD MLB.TV       Fri, 9/20 Blue Jays TBD MLB.TV       Sat, 9/21 Blue Jays TBD MLB.TV       Sun, 9/22 Blue Jays TBD MLB.TV       Tue, 9/24 at Rockies 8:40p MLB.TV       Wed, 9/25 at Rockies 8:40p MLB.TV       Fri, 9/27 at Orioles TBD MLB.TV       Sat, 9/28 at Orioles TBD MLB.TV       Sun, 9/29 at Orioles TBD MLB.TV
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    For real? A 2 game series against the Rockies (in Colorado) in September??

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    With 15 teams in each league now, there has to be an interleague series going on all the time.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    We play 10 games in NL parks, but they are spread out pretty well, so playing Papi at 1B those games should not be as big an issue as playing AGon in RF was.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLB Trade Rumors offers his offseason outlook for the Red Sox:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox.html

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLB Trade Rumors offers his offseason outlook for the Red Sox:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox.html



    I don't think I liked any ideas (and there were many) in this article.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLB Trade Rumors offers his offseason outlook for the Red Sox:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox.html



    I don't think I liked any ideas (and there were many) in this article.




    I think it was just some possibilities rather than the writers actual ideas...Im not too thrilled with the possible FA options either way...

     
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