A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looks like Red Sox winter spending is just about complete [Napoli pending] But looks like RS took a page out of Patriots book this past winter. Instead of going for the big name FA's of recent past [CC, Lackey] they focused more on fabric type players, that help to build a team. Back when the Patriots were winning SB's the one thing they did very well was sign players who filled a specific need, never going after the big name / big money guys.I know a lot of fans will say 13 mil per yr is a lot of $, but if you look at what Hamilton and Greinke signed for this is not big signings by todays standards. RS payroll right now stands at about 176 mil for next yr, but I still believe they have another trade in the works [they have a ton of quality bp arms] and Detroit still needs a closer and if they find a Soriano to be too expensive could a Porcello for Bailey+ trade be that far fetched? Here's to hoping Soriano gets signed elsewhere.

    [/QUOTE]


    We are very near the luxury tax limit right now (with Naps) after counting the $3.9M we pay the Dodgers and the player retirement contribution. 

    That puts us very close to where we were last season at this time.

    Would I rather have all the guys we signed this winter plus the prospects we got from the Dodgers rather than Josh, CC, AGon and Punto? Yes, but that doesn't mean I think we couldn't have done  better at setting ourselves up for 2014 and beyond.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, we may be very close to where we were last year at this time, but we are not obligated to more than a quarter billion dollars going forward on guys who were not good fits here. Ben quickly spent the money saved from the Dodger deal, but he did so in such a way that it will be much easier to get out from under any and all of those deals as they are all for shorter terms and less money, AND they are all veteran players any one of whom could be a target for a trading partner at the deadline. He didn't land that bright young star under team control for many years (YET) but maybe he believes that those bright young stars are already in our organization. I could easinly be eating my words in May, but I think Ben did the best he could with the free agent crop available and the talent he had on his own roster. Since last season's final game we have lost Ross, Aviles and a couple bullpen arms while adding experienced, quality (if unspectacular) players. I give Ben a B+ so far with a chance to earn an A with a creative trade to help the top of the rotation, although there a few top of the rotation pitchers to be had.

    [/QUOTE]

    While not having longer term commitments than we had with what we traded away to the Dodgers is an advantage, I do not agree that Ben deserves a B+. No signing or trade has brought us a player that will be in his peak prime in 2014 or 2015.

    While I am happy we were able to dump CC and Punto and to some extent Beckett, losing AGon hurt. His contract looks like a real bargain in today's FA market.

    Here is what we gave up:

    AGon  $127M/6

    CC       $102.5M/5

    Beckett $31.5M/2

    Punto     $1.5M/1

    $3.9M paid to the Dodgers over the next 3 years ($11.7M total).

    Approx Totals: 

    2013: $58M

    2014: $57M (no Punto)

    2015: $41M (no Beckett)

    2016: $41M

    2017: $42M

    2018: $21M (No CC)

    ($262M/14 combined years and the $11.7M paid to Dodgers)

    Only the CC deal was a contract over 3 years and not worth keeping. To me, the Beckett contract is about equal to the Dempster deal. 

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Whatever grade either you or I give Ben is pretty insignificant really, but I like what he's done so far. And "so far" may be the key words because he may not be done yet. Players who could help us beyond 2014 are usually not available in free agency because of the years experince required to be elligible for free agency. That is why I don't think it is a very effecient way to build a team and our track record lately has proven this. At the top end of the free agency pool you can occasionally grab a Manny, Sabathia or Texiera type, but the dollars are always huge and the returns rarely meet the expenditures. Building from within is always most effective, shrewd trading to bring in young potential stars under long-term control is the next best option; and Ben may still have irons in that fire. Free agency is most effective when trying to round out an otherwise good team with a few strategic signings, or in a case like this year's Red Sox team when a short-term bridge needed to be built. As currently constructed we can be competitive, although maybe not World Series level competitive, and we have not lost a single farm chip or draft pick.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Whatever grade either you or I give Ben is pretty insignificant really, but I like what he's done so far. And "so far" may be the key words because he may not be done yet. Players who could help us beyond 2014 are usually not available in free agency because of the years experince required to be elligible for free agency.

    But we signed 2 guys for 3 year deals that are at  or near the end of their prime years.

    We probably could have gotten B McCarthy for $24M/3, and although he is a risk, his upside potential is higher than anyone else we signed.

    That is why I don't think it is a very effecient way to build a team and our track record lately has proven this. At the top end of the free agency pool you can occasionally grab a Manny, Sabathia or Texiera type, but the dollars are always huge and the returns rarely meet the expenditures.

    I was not for signing Hamilton or Greinke, but I'd rather have signed on of them instead of Victorino, Naps and Dempster combined. The only high contract this year perhaps worth the risk, in my opinion,  was A Sanchez. Yes, his deal was 2 years longer than ideal, but he rates to be more helpful in 2014, 2015 and beyond than who we got.

    Building from within is always most effective, shrewd trading to bring in young potential stars under long-term control is the next best option; and Ben may still have irons in that fire.

    I am hoping he does something like this, but as of right now, there is no hurry. I don't see us as being one trade away from being a serious contender in 2013 anyways, so I do not feel any sense of urgency. In fact, I still feel we ought to make moves for 2014 and beyond before the season starts and/or at the dealine. I want us to deal Ellsbury, Breslow and Salty as well as anyone else that does not figure into our 2014 plans. 2013 is lost, a pipedream, or a bridge year- whatever one wants to call it, but 2014 need not be the same.

    Free agency is most effective when trying to round out an otherwise good team with a few strategic signings, or in a case like this year's Red Sox team when a short-term bridge needed to be built. As currently constructed we can be competitive, although maybe not World Series level competitive, and we have not lost a single farm chip or draft pick.

    I agree here, but that is not what this winter's signings accomplished. We did not have "an otherwise good team" to begin with, so why make "strategic signings" that do little to make us serious contenders in 2013, and do next to nothing to help us in 2014?

    The only advantage these deals may bring us moving forwards is possible gains via trades this deadline or next winter. That is a sketchy plan to say the least.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think Ben's hands are somewhat tied by having to field a somewhat competitive team every year in Boston. Between the "streak", NESN and a relentless press and fan base, he can not just take a year or two to retool and develop tomorrow's stars  like Tampa, Cinci, San Fran and others were able to do. That's why the rush to free agency this year, it was not to round out an otherwise good team, it was to build a bridge to the farm system while keeping us "somewhat" competitive.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Ben's hands are somewhat tied by having to field a somewhat competitive team every year in Boston. Between the "streak", NESN and a relentless press and fan base, he can not just take a year or two to retool and develop tomorrow's stars  like Tampa, Cinci, San Fran and others were able to do. That's why the rush to free agency this year, it was not to rouynd out an otherwise good team, it was to build a bridge to the farm system while keeping us "somewhat" competitive.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the fan base would have been content with moves that made us a little better in 2013, but that also improved our outlook for 2014 and beyond as well.

    The fact remains that Ben chose the worst free agent class ever to make the most signings ever. None of the signings really make us that much stronger in 2014 and beyond, and since that was my number one priority this winter, I don't see any reason to be optimistic about the direction we are taking.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'll give Ben a C+ so far. Hate to be harsh. I like some of the choices that he made. There was not much to pick from in the FA market this year, but he missed some deals - McCarthy. If RS were going to add a pitcher like Dempster, then they should have gone after McCarthy. I would have been OK with Hamilton for 5 years if some of those years were vested.

    Rather than going one way or the other and being All-In, Ben chose to sit on the fence IMO.


    Three other reasons Ben does not get a better grade:

    1) Prospect Development - If RS aren't "Going For Broke" then I would have wanted to see some prospects/young players developed further rather than postponing their development to next year. Two cases in particular: Iggy at SS. Why did we even get Drew? Iggy should have got his shot this year. If he didn't work out, then there is no reason to shift Bogaerts to another position. The other case is Lava. Maybe a trade will occur and either Lava or Salty will be gone. I would like to see at least 2 of the 4 B's make an appearance by September this year, so Ben's grade may improve on that.

    2) Overall Philosophy - The CC signing was a mistake. He was not worth that many years for that amount of money. The Agon signing was not a mistake. Some players deserve long-term contracts. It remains to be seen how the RS handle this. Hard to judge Ben on this because the top FA's all had question marks. However, I hope that there are some (2 probably, 3 at most) clear cases where RS continue to give FA's long-term contracts. Looking to the future, I am sorry but a long-term contract for Ellsbury would be a mistake without vesting options that Ells would not want. Ben gets a decent grade for getting Victorino as a bridge to JBJ.

    3) The trade that he did not make yet - RS should trade some of their useful spare parts (Lava/Salty, Holt/Ciriaco, Gomez, Nava/Kalish, Morales/Aceves) plus lower prospects for higher valued prospects or young established players like J Upton, G Stanton, or pitching. Those trades could still happen.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Rather than going one way or the other and being All-In, Ben chose to sit on the fence IMO.

    So, why the "C+"?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Rather than going one way or the other and being All-In, Ben chose to sit on the fence IMO.

    So, why the "C+"?

    [/QUOTE]


    I guess that I am optimistic that Ben isn't done yet, and there are many decisions that have to wait for spring training. I am giving Ben credit for those moves that are likely but have not happened. For example, it is hard to evaulate him on handling our prospects in 2013. If some of the 4 B's are not moved up and if Iggy has an OK OBP in spring training and still doesn't get the SS job, then Ben's grade will drop.



     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Rather than going one way or the other and being All-In, Ben chose to sit on the fence IMO.

    So, why the "C+"?

    [/QUOTE]


    I guess that I am optimistic that Ben isn't done yet, and there are many decisions that have to wait for spring training. I am giving Ben credit for those moves that are likely but have not happened. For example, it is hard to evaulate him on handling our prospects in 2013. If some of the 4 B's are not moved up and if Iggy has an OK OBP in spring training and still doesn't get the SS job, then Ben's grade will drop.



    [/QUOTE]


    iggy has no chance to start the year in the MLB.. and theres 9.5 Million reasons why

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    While I am happy we were able to dump CC and Punto and to some extent Beckett, losing AGon hurt. His contract looks like a real bargain in today's FA market.

    [/QUOTE]

    I really think we may have caught a break dumping AGon's contract as well.  I have no idea what has happened to his HR power, but there's no denying that he has had an extended power outage.  It goes back a season and a half, to the end of June, 2011.  In his last 946 AB's AGon has homered just 29 times, or 1 per 33 AB's.  That is high teens HR power for 1.5 seasons.  When we acquired AGon we were expecting a 35-40 HR guy, a left-handed Manny.

    When AGon went to the Dodgers last year and homered on his first AB, I thought, here we go, he's going to bust loose now.  But he went on to hit only 2 more HR's in the remaining 35 games-and they both came in the same game.  So in his last 35 games with the Dodgers, 34 of them were homerless.

    Plus his OBP took a major dip last year, by far the lowest walk total of his career.  I think something's wrong with AGon.  Either the shoulder he had surgery on is still affecting him or he's getting baseball-old a little prematurely.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    While I am happy we were able to dump CC and Punto and to some extent Beckett, losing AGon hurt. His contract looks like a real bargain in today's FA market.

    [/QUOTE]

    I really think we may have caught a break dumping AGon's contract as well.  I have no idea what has happened to his HR power, but there's no denying that he has had an extended power outage.  It goes back a season and a half, to the end of June, 2011.  In his last 946 AB's AGon has homered just 29 times, or 1 per 33 AB's.  That is high teens HR power for 1.5 seasons.  When we acquired AGon we were expecting a 35-40 HR guy, a left-handed Manny.

    When AGon went to the Dodgers last year and homered on his first AB, I thought, here we go, he's going to bust loose now.  But he went on to hit only 2 more HR's in the remaining 35 games-and they both came in the same game.  So in his last 35 games with the Dodgers, 34 of them were homerless.

    Plus his OBP took a major dip last year, by far the lowest walk total of his career.  I think something's wrong with AGon.  Either the shoulder he had surgery on is still affecting him or he's getting baseball-old a little prematurely.

    [/QUOTE]

    You could be right about AGon, but I'm pretty certain he'd have made more than $127M/6 had he been a FA this winter.

    Like I said the day of the trade, "It was one of the best Sox trades of all time."

    I still believe that.

    The fact that I wish we had done better with the salary space does not take away from the huge relief that trade brought us. I also said at the time of the trade that I felt it was a great trade "even if we got no prospects in return".

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    iggy has no chance to start the year in the MLB.. and theres 9.5 Million reasons why

    What's the chance of a Drew injury?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Happy New Year!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    iggy has no chance to start the year in the MLB.. and theres 9.5 Million reasons why

    What's the chance of a Drew injury?

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow! Was not going to go there...

    Injury chance for Drew? JD = high, Stephen < JD ?!?

    Ciriaco came out of no where last Spring Training. Let's hope Iggy has a good spring. If he does, the Sox have a $9.5M insurance policy.

    Happy New Year!

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    $9.5M of insurance?

    Wow! Was not going to go there!

     

    LOL

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    iggy has no chance to start the year in the MLB.. and theres 9.5 Million reasons why

    What's the chance of a Drew injury?

    [/QUOTE]


    i didn't say he woundn't see time in the majors this year. he definitely will. but its highly unlikely he starts the year at SS unless Drew gets hurt in ST

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In spite of Doctor Softlaw's threads to the contrary, Drew represents a big upgrade both offensively and defensively over Mike Aviles. He was not my choice; I would have been very happy to see Iglesias be given the spot and learn to hit on the fly like Vizquel and Ozzie did when they were young defensive wizards. Drew is probably the most likely trade deadline chip if Iggy is playing well in AAA and the team is drifting. As bad as our pitching was last year it was made far worse by the defense at short, in right, in left, behind the plate and half the year in center. Shortstop, more than any other position on the field except maybe catcher, should be a defense first position.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In spite of Doctor Softlaw's threads to the contrary, Drew represents a big upgrade both offensively and defensively over Mike Aviles. He was not my choice; I would have been very happy to see Iglesias be given the spot and learn to hit on the fly like Vizquel and Ozzie did when they were young defensive wizards. Drew is probably the most likely trade deadline chip if Iggy is playing well in AAA and the team is drifting. As bad as our pitching was last year it was made far worse by the defense at short, in right, in left, behind the plate and half the year in center. Shortstop, more than any other position on the field except maybe catcher, should be a defense first position.

    [/QUOTE]

    Aviles did much better in the field than many expected or seemingly observed in 2012. With Drew's injury influenced limited range, I wouldn't say Drew will be a better fielding SS in 2013 than Aviles would have been.

    I totally agree about SS fielding being #1, but Drew is not anywhere near a great fielder. I'd have rather had Iggy and the $10M spent on pitching.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In spite of Doctor Softlaw's threads to the contrary, Drew represents a big upgrade both offensively and defensively over Mike Aviles. He was not my choice; I would have been very happy to see Iglesias be given the spot and learn to hit on the fly like Vizquel and Ozzie did when they were young defensive wizards. Drew is probably the most likely trade deadline chip if Iggy is playing well in AAA and the team is drifting. As bad as our pitching was last year it was made far worse by the defense at short, in right, in left, behind the plate and half the year in center. Shortstop, more than any other position on the field except maybe catcher, should be a defense first position.

    [/QUOTE]

    Aviles did much better in the field than many expected or seemingly observed in 2012. With Drew's injury influenced limited range, I wouldn't say Drew will be a better fielding SS in 2013 than Aviles would have been.

    I totally agree about SS fielding being #1, but Drew is not anywhere near a great fielder. I'd have rather had Iggy and the $10M spent on pitching.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, I haven't seen the post-injury Drew, but healthy he is a quality, if not spectacular shortstop. I was not impressed with Aviles' range at all although he was a defensive upgrade over Scutaro. His hands and arm were steady and consistent, but I felt lots of balls trickled through that a better shortstop gobbles up. That being said, that is why I was also for Iggy having the job from day one.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In spite of Doctor Softlaw's threads to the contrary, Drew represents a big upgrade both offensively and defensively over Mike Aviles. He was not my choice; I would have been very happy to see Iglesias be given the spot and learn to hit on the fly like Vizquel and Ozzie did when they were young defensive wizards. Drew is probably the most likely trade deadline chip if Iggy is playing well in AAA and the team is drifting. As bad as our pitching was last year it was made far worse by the defense at short, in right, in left, behind the plate and half the year in center. Shortstop, more than any other position on the field except maybe catcher, should be a defense first position.

    [/QUOTE]

    Aviles did much better in the field than many expected or seemingly observed in 2012. With Drew's injury influenced limited range, I wouldn't say Drew will be a better fielding SS in 2013 than Aviles would have been.

    I totally agree about SS fielding being #1, but Drew is not anywhere near a great fielder. I'd have rather had Iggy and the $10M spent on pitching.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, I haven't seen the post-injury Drew, but healthy he is a quality, if not spectacular shortstop. I was not impressed with Aviles' range at all although he was a defensive upgrade over Scutaro. His hands and arm were steady and consistent, but I felt lots of balls trickled through that a better shortstop gobbles up. That being said, that is why I was also for Iggy having the job from day one.

    [/QUOTE]

    I have not seen Drew play much, but I never heard he was close to spectacular before the injury.

    Aviles had great range numbers in 2012 (4.68 RF/9 - actually higher than Iggy!),  7th in MLB in RngR, and very good UZR150 numbers (+6.3 was 8th in MLB), and I watched the SS position closely last year. I had been a strong advocate of starting Iggy last year, and was looking to document how many plays Aviles misses that a guy like Iggy would have made. I stopped counting aftera month or so, because it was much less than I had imagined it would have been.

    I'm really not sure even a 100% healthy Drew will be better at SS than Aviles, Ciriaco and Iggy were last year... 4.70 RF/9.

    Our combined SS UZR150 was +12.1 in 2012. That was the 3rd best in MLB. (3rd in range and 2nd in DPs by the UZR methodology). I am not saying Mike was the 2nd or 3rd best fielding SS in MLB last year (softy will misread this), but he was much better than expected, and much better than what many here gave him credit for during and after 2012.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Ben's hands are somewhat tied by having to field a somewhat competitive team every year in Boston. Between the "streak", NESN and a relentless press and fan base, he can not just take a year or two to retool and develop tomorrow's stars  like Tampa, Cinci, San Fran and others were able to do. That's why the rush to free agency this year, it was not to rouynd out an otherwise good team, it was to build a bridge to the farm system while keeping us "somewhat" competitive.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the fan base would have been content with moves that made us a little better in 2013, but that also improved our outlook for 2014 and beyond as well.

    The fact remains that Ben chose the worst free agent class ever to make the most signings ever. None of the signings really make us that much stronger in 2014 and beyond, and since that was my number one priority this winter, I don't see any reason to be optimistic about the direction we are taking.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon...I was one also who was perplexed, to say the least, about the moves Ben made this offseason, but the more I think about it, the more I THINK I see his logic. First...let's forget next yr, and 2014 for that matter. With the prospects we have down in the minors it really is 2015 when they can hopefully be IMPACT players for us. They,ll need 13/14 to get their feet wet IMO. That being said, let's look at 2013. Let's say the rs are 6 games under 500 at the deadline, what with all the players we have on short term deals we are going to have quite a few appealing trade chips to contenders, and by being a wealthy team we can always eat some salary to get some nice prospects back in a trade to a small market team that may be in contention. For example...Lester rebounds somewhat and is 9-5, 3.44 era at the break. Seattle in the west is in the hunt for the west. In that sceneiro he could maybe package Lester and a reliever for a Stud prospect like Hultzen and others. That,s one case..other players that would have appeal to contending teams are Hanrahan, Bailey, Drew, Salty, Aceves, Lackey, Dempster, Breslow, and others. Depending on who is doing what. Iggy also could be part of a deal, if he is hitting 260/270 in AAA he would be a nice throw in with a pitcher to try and pry a top pitching prospect away from a team that is in the hunt. If we,re in the hunt for the wild card, we stay pat and ride it out. So I think we,re set up ok with some decent options. I personally hope we are out of contention and make some moves for pitching prospects that can help us in 15 and beyond. As I feel that a continuous flow of young high upside power arms is the only way to build a year after year contending worldseries contender. Just imagine adding a Hultzen type prospect, along with a top 2 or 3 coll arm in the June draft to go along with Barnes, De La Rosa, Webster, Tazawa, Doubie etc...A 2015 rotation of Buch, Barnes, Hultzen, ( draft pick) Doubie, and Webster, with RDR closing and Tazawa setting up would be interesting. With Owens Renaudo and others knocking at the door. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think you have a good point about the moveable contracts, makonikyman, and I've heard this elsewhere too.  

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to makonikyman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Ben's hands are somewhat tied by having to field a somewhat competitive team every year in Boston. Between the "streak", NESN and a relentless press and fan base, he can not just take a year or two to retool and develop tomorrow's stars  like Tampa, Cinci, San Fran and others were able to do. That's why the rush to free agency this year, it was not to rouynd out an otherwise good team, it was to build a bridge to the farm system while keeping us "somewhat" competitive.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the fan base would have been content with moves that made us a little better in 2013, but that also improved our outlook for 2014 and beyond as well.

    The fact remains that Ben chose the worst free agent class ever to make the most signings ever. None of the signings really make us that much stronger in 2014 and beyond, and since that was my number one priority this winter, I don't see any reason to be optimistic about the direction we are taking.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon...I was one also who was perplexed, to say the least, about the moves Ben made this offseason, but the more I think about it, the more I THINK I see his logic. First...let's forget next yr, and 2014 for that matter. With the prospects we have down in the minors it really is 2015 when they can hopefully be IMPACT players for us. They,ll need 13/14 to get their feet wet IMO. That being said, let's look at 2013. Let's say the rs are 6 games under 500 at the deadline, what with all the players we have on short term deals we are going to have quite a few appealing trade chips to contenders, and by being a wealthy team we can always eat some salary to get some nice prospects back in a trade to a small market team that may be in contention. For example...Lester rebounds somewhat and is 9-5, 3.44 era at the break. Seattle in the west is in the hunt for the west. In that sceneiro he could maybe package Lester and a reliever for a Stud prospect like Hultzen and others. That,s one case..other players that would have appeal to contending teams are Hanrahan, Bailey, Drew, Salty, Aceves, Lackey, Dempster, Breslow, and others. Depending on who is doing what. Iggy also could be part of a deal, if he is hitting 260/270 in AAA he would be a nice throw in with a pitcher to try and pry a top pitching prospect away from a team that is in the hunt. If we,re in the hunt for the wild card, we stay pat and ride it out. So I think we,re set up ok with some decent options. I personally hope we are out of contention and make some moves for pitching prospects that can help us in 15 and beyond. As I feel that a continuous flow of young high upside power arms is the only way to build a year after year contending worldseries contender. Just imagine adding a Hultzen type prospect, along with a top 2 or 3 coll arm in the June draft to go along with Barnes, De La Rosa, Webster, Tazawa, Doubie etc...A 2015 rotation of Buch, Barnes, Hultzen, ( draft pick) Doubie, and Webster, with RDR closing and Tazawa setting up would be interesting. With Owens Renaudo and others knocking at the door. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I have said this is the one good thing about these deals, but I seriously doubt Ben is looking at it this way. Maybe the AGon trade broke the paradigm, but this team rarely "packs it in" at the deadline.

    I do see 2015 as a more realistic goal than 2014, but I see us as having an aging Victorino and Napoli as the only remanents of this winter's dealings. We played it halfway. It may work out OK, but I am certain we could have done better with the same or less money.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    moonslav, what you should do, seriously, is put together your own personal 2013 Red Sox team using the free agent signings you wanted to do, and the trades you wanted to do, making sure the payroll comes in at somewhere close to the actual 2013 payroll.  The trades have to be ones that were realistic possibilities.

    Then keep track of your team's performance throughout the year using WAR numbers, and compare to the numbers for the actual team.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moonslav, what you should do, seriously, is put together your own personal 2013 Red Sox team using the free agent signings you wanted to do, and the trades you wanted to do, making sure the payroll comes in at somewhere close to the actual 2013 payroll.  The trades have to be ones that were realistic possibilities.

    Then keep track of your team's performance throughout the year using WAR numbers, and compare to the numbers for the actual team.

    [/QUOTE]

    One major problem with this experiment is that some of the guys Moon mentions didnt want to play here, so they would have to be gross overpays to the point where they would be pressured by the union to take the deal.  Similar scenarios really worked out well with Crawford & Agon (kidding), so saying "the Sox should of signed this player" is completely unrealistic, unless we have all the facts, which we dont.  

     

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