Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I
posted at 1/3/2013 11:29 AM EST
In response to makonikyman's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to jidgef's comment:
I think Ben's hands are somewhat tied by having to field a somewhat competitive team every year in Boston. Between the "streak", NESN and a relentless press and fan base, he can not just take a year or two to retool and develop tomorrow's stars like Tampa, Cinci, San Fran and others were able to do. That's why the rush to free agency this year, it was not to rouynd out an otherwise good team, it was to build a bridge to the farm system while keeping us "somewhat" competitive.
I think the fan base would have been content with moves that made us a little better in 2013, but that also improved our outlook for 2014 and beyond as well.
The fact remains that Ben chose the worst free agent class ever to make the most signings ever. None of the signings really make us that much stronger in 2014 and beyond, and since that was my number one priority this winter, I don't see any reason to be optimistic about the direction we are taking.
Moon...I was one also who was perplexed, to say the least, about the moves Ben made this offseason, but the more I think about it, the more I THINK I see his logic. First...let's forget next yr, and 2014 for that matter. With the prospects we have down in the minors it really is 2015 when they can hopefully be IMPACT players for us. They,ll need 13/14 to get their feet wet IMO. That being said, let's look at 2013. Let's say the rs are 6 games under 500 at the deadline, what with all the players we have on short term deals we are going to have quite a few appealing trade chips to contenders, and by being a wealthy team we can always eat some salary to get some nice prospects back in a trade to a small market team that may be in contention. For example...Lester rebounds somewhat and is 9-5, 3.44 era at the break. Seattle in the west is in the hunt for the west. In that sceneiro he could maybe package Lester and a reliever for a Stud prospect like Hultzen and others. That,s one case..other players that would have appeal to contending teams are Hanrahan, Bailey, Drew, Salty, Aceves, Lackey, Dempster, Breslow, and others. Depending on who is doing what. Iggy also could be part of a deal, if he is hitting 260/270 in AAA he would be a nice throw in with a pitcher to try and pry a top pitching prospect away from a team that is in the hunt. If we,re in the hunt for the wild card, we stay pat and ride it out. So I think we,re set up ok with some decent options. I personally hope we are out of contention and make some moves for pitching prospects that can help us in 15 and beyond. As I feel that a continuous flow of young high upside power arms is the only way to build a year after year contending worldseries contender. Just imagine adding a Hultzen type prospect, along with a top 2 or 3 coll arm in the June draft to go along with Barnes, De La Rosa, Webster, Tazawa, Doubie etc...A 2015 rotation of Buch, Barnes, Hultzen, ( draft pick) Doubie, and Webster, with RDR closing and Tazawa setting up would be interesting. With Owens Renaudo and others knocking at the door.
I have said this is the one good thing about these deals, but I seriously doubt Ben is looking at it this way. Maybe the AGon trade broke the paradigm, but this team rarely "packs it in" at the deadline.
I do see 2015 as a more realistic goal than 2014, but I see us as having an aging Victorino and Napoli as the only remanents of this winter's dealings. We played it halfway. It may work out OK, but I am certain we could have done better with the same or less money.