A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The owners must love this new CBA. It's got to be saving some money for a lot of clubs and making it a lot easier to stay competitive.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm sure the Rays will miss the old system and their stockpiled picks.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    It certainly appears that the draft pick compensation changes are altering the way teams go about free agency, and it seems to be working counter to what's in the players' best interests. Not that I'm feeling too sorry for them. But if the only way a team receives a draft pick after losing a free agent is to first offer $13mil worth of arbitration then it certainly limits the quality of player who can fetch a draft pick. Not sure Hanrahan would be worth a $13mil offer, nor Drew. Ells is the only current player who could land us an extra draft pick. As for the Rays, simply winning is screwing up the draft strategy that worked so well for the perennial loser Devil Rays.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm sure the Rays will miss the old system and their stockpiled picks.


    As will the stockpiling Red Sox.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm sure the Rays will miss the old system and their stockpiled picks.



    As will the stockpiling Red Sox.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The Sox have other ways to stay competitive.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Is Upton even on Ben's radar?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Is Upton even on Ben's radar?

    [/QUOTE]


    hope not

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Is Upton even on Ben's radar?

    [/QUOTE]


    hope not

    [/QUOTE]

    Hope so!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    As for the Rays, simply winning is screwing up the draft strategy that worked so well for the perennial loser Devil Rays.

    They mastered garnering the comp picks.

    In 2011, the Rays had 10 picks in the top 60!

    They has 12 in the top 89. That's like 9 extra picks!

     

    In 2010, they had 5 of the top 79, making it about 11-12 extra picks in those 2 years. Who needs number one's overall with that strategy?

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    A big factor in the Stephen Drew deal was his potential to generate a Type A pick. In 2014 if he does well. We may have 2 #1 picks if Ellsbury leaves also.

    I still think we can get more by trading Jacoby than waiting for the draft pick.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Liked Peter Gammon's Q&A session on Extra Baes and some of his responses regarding Iggy and his position with the team relative to a number of young starting pitchers in the wings. Also liked the Gammon's report that Iggy worked with Pedroia on his hitting, and should be a decent hitter given his hand-eye coordination. No guarantees, but I hope that he hits OK in Spring Training and Drew becomes redundant. Wishful thinking.


    I also liked his assessment of DelaRosa. Looking forward to his arrival on the scene.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A big factor in the Stephen Drew deal was his potential to generate a Type A pick. In 2014 if he does well. We may have 2 #1 picks if Ellsbury leaves also.

    I still think we can get more by trading Jacoby than waiting for the draft pick.

    [/QUOTE]

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have to offer arbitration and have the player turn it down and sign with another team to garner the type A pick? If I'm correct, and the arbitration numbers are $13mil, wouldn't it make sense for the Drews of the world to simply accept arbitration?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A big factor in the Stephen Drew deal was his potential to generate a Type A pick. In 2014 if he does well. We may have 2 #1 picks if Ellsbury leaves also.

    I still think we can get more by trading Jacoby than waiting for the draft pick.

    [/QUOTE]

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have to offer arbitration and have the player turn it down and sign with another team to garner the type A pick? If I'm correct, and the arbitration numbers are $13mil, wouldn't it make sense for the Drews of the world to simply accept arbitration?

    [/QUOTE]

    Perhaps, but in today's market they may get better as a FA.  LaRoche got $24M/2 after turning down a qualifying offer. I think that's the worst deal so far this year for those players.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A big factor in the Stephen Drew deal was his potential to generate a Type A pick. In 2014 if he does well. We may have 2 #1 picks if Ellsbury leaves also.

    I still think we can get more by trading Jacoby than waiting for the draft pick.

    [/QUOTE]

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have to offer arbitration and have the player turn it down and sign with another team to garner the type A pick? If I'm correct, and the arbitration numbers are $13mil, wouldn't it make sense for the Drews of the world to simply accept arbitration?

    [/QUOTE]

    Perhaps, but in today's market they may get better as a FA.  LaRoche got $24M/2 after turning down a qualifying offer. I think that's the worst deal so far this year for those players.

    [/QUOTE]

    True, Laroche got two years, but a lower base salary. Also I believe the draft pick compensation for him actually lowered his value on the open market and is why he's back with his own club. My point was that only the pretty elite players are likely to bring a draft pick going forward. Ellsbury probably will, but not sure either Drew or Hanrahan will. That doesn't preclude deadline trades though. And it does seem to give Ells more value today than in June, but I'd rather see him put up big "contract year" numbers for us than for someone else. He could be the "Grandy-man's" replacement in 2014, ugh!!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    And it does seem to give Ells more value today than in June, but I'd rather see him put up big "contract year" numbers for us than for someone else. He could be the "Grandy-man's" replacement in 2014, ugh!!

    If we had a real chance to win it all this year, I'd agree to keep Ellsbury in hopes he has a "contract year" comparable to 2011, but sadly, that is not true.

    Trade Ellsbury and the attached draft pick this winter for good prospects, and shoot for 2014 or flip some of the prospects along with other players/prospects to get a player of high value under team control for 3 or more years.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd love to wint this year too, but let's be realistic. Do we have a better chance at winning in 2013 or 2014/2015? The answer is clearly not 2013, so why lessen our chances to win after 2013 by not getting something of longer term value for Ellsbury? 

    We are hurting our future chances by keeping Jacoby this year. Maybe we raise our chances of winning from 3% to 4% by keeping him, but might be lessening our chances from 7% to 6% in 2014 and 10% to 9% in 2015 (just throwing numbers out there for argument's sake).

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, is that you under another moniker? It sure sounds like you. 

    Here's another viewpoint...how about Ellsbury has a huge year, resigns with us, and our outfield of the future is Bogearts (lf), Ellsbury (cf) and Bradley (rf). With the cheaper guys, under team control for many years in the corners, we can afford an overpay on Ellsbury, provided he has a year this year to make him worthwhile. That way we can keep Iggy at short as well. That's looking at the glass as overflowing!

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, is that you under another moniker? It sure sounds like you. 

    Here's another viewpoint...how about Ellsbury has a huge year, resigns with us, and our outfield of the future is Bogearts (lf), Ellsbury (cf) and Bradley (rf). With the cheaper guys, under team control for many years in the corners, we can afford an overpay on Ellsbury, provided he has a year this year to make him worthwhile. That way we can keep Iggy at short as well. That's looking at the glass as overflowing!

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, it is boom.

    I don't think jacoby wants to play here, even if we offer slightly more than the next highest bidder.

    I do not think we can count on Ellsbury to have a long great career, at least enough to commit to the longterm deal he will be seeking and getting from someone.

    The time is now. There are teams that will give us a good couple of prospects for the one year of hope plus the draft choice likely attached after he bolts.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, is that you under another moniker? It sure sounds like you. 

    Here's another viewpoint...how about Ellsbury has a huge year, resigns with us, and our outfield of the future is Bogearts (lf), Ellsbury (cf) and Bradley (rf). With the cheaper guys, under team control for many years in the corners, we can afford an overpay on Ellsbury, provided he has a year this year to make him worthwhile. That way we can keep Iggy at short as well. That's looking at the glass as overflowing!

    [/QUOTE]


    THIS^^^^

    just because you have JBJ does not mean we should jump to be rid of bug numbah two.... RF is pretty spacious and JBJ can play there leaving Lf for XB, brentz, victorino etc.. an OF filled with great players and GG at every slot (if victorino is still sticking around)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, is that you under another moniker? It sure sounds like you. 

    Here's another viewpoint...how about Ellsbury has a huge year, resigns with us, and our outfield of the future is Bogearts (lf), Ellsbury (cf) and Bradley (rf). With the cheaper guys, under team control for many years in the corners, we can afford an overpay on Ellsbury, provided he has a year this year to make him worthwhile. That way we can keep Iggy at short as well. That's looking at the glass as overflowing!

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, it is boom.

    I don't think jacoby wants to play here, even if we offer slightly more than the next highest bidder.

    I do not think we can count on Ellsbury to have a long great career, at least enough to commit to the longterm deal he will be seeking and getting from someone.

    The time is now. There are teams that will give us a good couple of prospects for the one year of hope plus the draft choice likely attached after he bolts.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't disagree with any of that Moon, I was writing partly tongue in cheek. But I do think Ellsbury is somewhat undervalued now, coming off his injury plagued year and could be worth more at the deadline if he gets off to a great start. And he could give us an entire season in which case we cash in the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. I'll support whatever Ben decides to do, but the almost sixty-year Sox fan in me is reluctant to give up on a season before it starts.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I don't disagree with any of that Moon, I was writing partly tongue in cheek. But I do think Ellsbury is somewhat undervalued now, coming off his injury plagued year and could be worth more at the deadline if he gets off to a great start. And he could give us an entire season in which case we cash in the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. I'll support whatever Ben decides to do, but the almost sixty-year Sox fan in me is reluctant to give up on a season before it starts.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree. How much could the Yankees get for Robinson Cano if they traded him at the deadline? That should be how much you should get for Jacoby Ellsbury if Ellsbury plays just 80% aswell as his 2011 season. When the deadline comes and Ellsbury is playing great, teams will not be worried about injuries, since there will only be two months to go. He could still have very good value.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's entirely possible that Ellsbury isn't even worth a #1 pick at the end of this year. I think he will be but there are no guarantees. That and the fact that we probably will not contend this year are the 2 biggest reasons to trade him.

    All that said, I like the idea of actually trying to win this year! If we can piece together a good year from our starters and a guy like Ellsbury steps up for a tremendous MVP type year again, we definitely have a shot. Teams in a lot less likely scenarios have done it before. For example the 67 Redsox. 

    Why not another Impossible Dream year! 

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, is that you under another moniker? It sure sounds like you. 

    Here's another viewpoint...how about Ellsbury has a huge year, resigns with us, and our outfield of the future is Bogearts (lf), Ellsbury (cf) and Bradley (rf). With the cheaper guys, under team control for many years in the corners, we can afford an overpay on Ellsbury, provided he has a year this year to make him worthwhile. That way we can keep Iggy at short as well. That's looking at the glass as overflowing!

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, it is boom.

    I don't think jacoby wants to play here, even if we offer slightly more than the next highest bidder.

    I do not think we can count on Ellsbury to have a long great career, at least enough to commit to the longterm deal he will be seeking and getting from someone.

    The time is now. There are teams that will give us a good couple of prospects for the one year of hope plus the draft choice likely attached after he bolts.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't disagree with any of that Moon, I was writing partly tongue in cheek. But I do think Ellsbury is somewhat undervalued now, coming off his injury plagued year and could be worth more at the deadline if he gets off to a great start. And he could give us an entire season in which case we cash in the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. I'll support whatever Ben decides to do, but the almost sixty-year Sox fan in me is reluctant to give up on a season before it starts.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, Jacoby had higher trade value before, but the question now is, what is worth more to us right now?

    A) One year of Ellsbury during a time when we have very little chance of seriously competing plus a likely draft pick after he bolts.

    B) Get a couple nice prospects that will help us more than the draft pick during seasons when we actually might have a chance.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I don't disagree with any of that Moon, I was writing partly tongue in cheek. But I do think Ellsbury is somewhat undervalued now, coming off his injury plagued year and could be worth more at the deadline if he gets off to a great start. And he could give us an entire season in which case we cash in the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. I'll support whatever Ben decides to do, but the almost sixty-year Sox fan in me is reluctant to give up on a season before it starts.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree. How much could the Yankees get for Robinson Cano if they traded him at the deadline? That should be how much you should get for Jacoby Ellsbury if Ellsbury plays just 80% aswell as his 2011 season. When the deadline comes and Ellsbury is playing great, teams will not be worried about injuries, since there will only be two months to go. He could still have very good value.

    [/QUOTE]

    If you trade Ellsbury during the season, the team getting him loses the draft pick.

    I can't see how 6+ months of Ellsbury plus a draft pick is worth less than 2+ months of Ellsbury without a draft pick, even if he is on fire for the first 4 months of 2013.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    As you guys know, I'm all about the prospects. I have no problem trading Ellsbury for Profar right now. Done. It's just that a lot of teams can't bank of Ellsbury as much after another injury. He may not be the guy who tore up mlb in 2011. If he was we might have a better chance of getting some studs back in a trade. 

    I think Ellsbury's game is better suited for another team but the Redsox really want guys like him. We need guys who are potential MVP candidates. Lot's of guys thought me wanting to retain Beltre was dumb but he was another potential MVP type who would have cost us relatively little to keep and if we did we would have a guy named Rizzo playing first right now who has as much potential as Smoak or more in my book. It is really important to retain MVP type players if you want to win.

    We have a lot less likelihood of winning in 2013 without Ellsbury. A lot of teams have one or two great offensive players who can almost carry a team to the playoffs And Ellsbury can play defense also. He had a 9.4 WAR value in 2011, with a 149 wRC+. The guy was off the charts. If we have any chance to win in 2013, Ellsbury is probably leading that train.

    A 9.4 WAR is over 3 times the value of a normal player. What is that worth to a contending team? It makes a strong case for keeping him or trading him but they clearly value him. If someone offered more talent I have no doubt that they would trade him. It's not like they haven't showed a willingness to deal. Perhaps they are more confident than other GMs that Ellsbury is for real. They might also want to retain him as a foundational player. Heh, it's possible. Every team really wants to keep their top players if possible. It's great for the fans. And he is a known quantity. A lot less risky than someone else's FA, which they probably do not know anywhere near as well.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As you guys know, I'm all about the prospects. I have no problem trading Ellsbury for Profar right now. Done. It's just that a lot of teams can't bank of Ellsbury as much after another injury. He may not be the guy who tore up mlb in 2011. If he was we might have a better chance of getting some studs back in a trade. 

    I think Ellsbury's game is better suited for another team but the Redsox really want guys like him. We need guys who are potential MVP candidates. Lot's of guys thought me wanting to retain Beltre was dumb but he was another potential MVP type who would have cost us relatively little to keep and if we did we would have a guy named Rizzo playing first right now who has as much potential as Smoak or more in my book. It is really important to retain MVP type players if you want to win.

    We have a lot less likelihood of winning in 2013 without Ellsbury. A lot of teams have one or two great offensive players who can almost carry a team to the playoffs And Ellsbury can play defense also. He had a 9.4 WAR value in 2011, with a 149 wRC+. The guy was off the charts. If we have any chance to win in 2013, Ellsbury is probably leading that train.

    A 9.4 WAR is over 3 times the value of a normal player. What is that worth to a contending team? It makes a strong case for keeping him or trading him but they clearly value him. If someone offered more talent I have no doubt that they would trade him. It's not like they haven't showed a willingness to deal. Perhaps they are more confident than other GMs that Ellsbury is for real. They might also want to retain him as a foundational player. Heh, it's possible. Every team really wants to keep their top players if possible. It's great for the fans. And he is a known quantity. A lot less risky than someone else's FA, which they probably do not know anywhere near as well.

    [/QUOTE]

    Irealize we have a better chance of winning with Ellsbury this year than with a prospect or two we might get for him, but I guess I just don't see that value as being greater than the future value or the prospect(s).

     
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