A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Do you guys think the Red Sox might go after Nick Swisher as a first baseman?

    How about 3 years at $25 million?

    Swisher's numbers are not that bad either and he seems to be a laid-back guy.  He reminds me of Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar. 

    Swisher is an upgrade over Loney and he won't cost that much money. 

     

    Did you ever watch Swisher play 1b? He's terrible! Adam LaRoche would be a much better choice and his fellow infielders would be much happier.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Swisher is not the answer.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Neither is Kuroda.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    Good morning moonslav59  :)

    Who do you want as the next Red Sox manager?

    As of now, I want Pena.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'd like Leyland (if available), but am not sure how good the others are. I think Pena seems like a good choice.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ha, Moon, I always enjoy your trade ideas. Who knows what can or will happen, but you are on the right track: an emphasis on young and pitching. I got a kick out of Eric Chavez. I suggested him a couple years ago for our bench.  He has done great for NY and would do great here; his back won't stand up to full time play, but he's certainly better than ARod--sorry I couldn't resist.  Bumgarner sent to the bullpen today.  His fundamentals are messed up right now, but they like him and his attitude.  Read an article in Globe today about NY headaches coming with age and salary which we've all predicted, but this is leaving me very buoyant about future possibilities for us.  Moon, I share your respect for Leyland, but like Tito he is very loyal to his veterans, maybe sometimes at the cost of common sense, progress, youth.  I still remember a spell last year when Reddick was tearing it up, hitting home runs, making saving catches for a week, and when Drew came back, in he went.  I think the new guy has got to go with a culture of youth--but we do need a couple of solid vets to show the kids how to play and keep the compass straight.  I think VMart might be better than Papi in that light.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Moon, I share your respect for Leyland, but like Tito he is very loyal to his veterans, maybe sometimes at the cost of common sense, progress, youth.

    He's had a history of standing up to vets (see Bonds in Pittsburgh), and this team has few vets left anyways.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    At least the Yankee fans can't heckle us that loudly this winter.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Since I don't see us having much of a chance at all in 2013, I think we may sign a couple bridge players to 1 year deals, and find a couple more to build towards 2014 and beyond via trade or free agency.

    Here's how I see our 2013 25 man roster (with viable options in parenthesis):

    C: Salty   Lava   (Butler)

    1B: ________ (Gomez/Sands)

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks  (Valencia/DeJesus)

    SS: Iglesias  Ciriaco  (Bogaerts )  ** Aviles will be traded **

    LF: _________  (Nava/Sands/Linares)

    CF: Ellsbury   Kalish  (Bradley)

    RF: __________  Sweeney (Linares/Brentz)

    DH: __________ (Sands/Lava/Nava/Gomez)

    SP: Lester  Buch  _______  Lack  Doub   (Webster/de la Rosa)

    LR: Morales  Mortensen (Stewart/Hernandez)

    SR: Bailey  Tazawa  Breslow  Miller  Atchison (R.Hill/Melancon/Bard/BeatoCarpenter/Rosario/Wilson)

    ** Aceves will be traded**

    Although I have 5 empty slots. I think we may just fill 3-4 this winter and leave the rest to the subs and prospects to fight it out.

    SP, 1B, LF, RF,&  DH

    We may see Ross and/or Pods returning. We may see Papi returning. We may not see Aviles and Aceves traded.

     

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Kuroda would be ideal in a 2 year deal. Hopefully we have some young pitchers emerge over time but why not at least TRY to win in 2013? It's not like we don't have the cash. We don't want to overpay or do a long term deal but Kuroda might well be available for $30 mil / 2 years and look at the numbers he has put up, even as a RH pitcher in Yankee stadium? Consistently excellent numbers averaging over 200 IP during the last 3 years? What is not to like about a short term deal for this guy? We couldn't disagree more on this one Moon. I'm making a run at this guy if I'm Cherington. 

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3283&position=P

    At the very least let's make the Yanks pay more to keep him.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Kuroda would be ideal in a 2 year deal. Hopefully we have some young pitchers emerge over time but why not at least TRY to win in 2013?

    I'm fine with improving in 2013, but I want a sharper focus put on 2014 and beyond. If you are looking at Kuroda as a bridge to the prospects fine, I could call him an "ideal" bridge player and see that he could help us win in 2014, but I prefer using the same money to get someone for beyond 2014 (see below).

    It's not like we don't have the cash. We don't want to overpay or do a long term deal but Kuroda might well be available for $30 mil / 2 years and look at the numbers he has put up, even as a RH pitcher in Yankee stadium? Consistently excellent numbers averaging over 200 IP during the last 3 years?

    Having 196+ IP for 3 straight years is very good, but for a pitcher who will turn 39 before the 2014 season, it might be a negative, in terms of overuse and projected decline.

    Consistent numbers? Yes.

    RH'er in Yankee Stadium? Yes, but in a small sample size (19 IP) he has a 5.21 ERA and .818 OPS against in Fenway. His earlier stats may have been helped by pitching in spacious LA.

    What is not to like about a short term deal for this guy? We couldn't disagree more on this one Moon. I'm making a run at this guy if I'm Cherington.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3283&position=P

    Like I said earlier, as a bridge player, I'd be OK with signing him, but I'd prefer to use the money to get a starter for 3-4 years or to put towards getting a better and younger starter.

    $24M/3 or $32M/4 type deal:

    Brandon McCarthy  (29-30 in '13) 282 IP 2011-2012  with a 3.29 ERA/1.18 WHIP

     

    $30M/3 or $38M/4 type deals:

    Edwin Jackson (29 in '13) 190+ IP for 4 consec. years  3.98 ERA

    Anibal Sanchez (29 in '13) 195+ IP for 3 consec. years

     

    $45M/3 or $55M/4 type deals:

    Jake Peavy (31-32 in '13) 540 IP over last 4 yrs

     

    4 Year WAR (2009-2012):

    23) Jackson  14.0 (1.33 WHIP/3.98 ERA)

    30) Sanchez 12.7 (1.32 WHIP/3.72 ERA)

    31) Kuroda  12.2  (1.17 WHIP/3.34 ERA)

    37) Peavy  11.8  (1.16 WHIP/3.95 ERA)

     

    3 Year WAR (2010-2012):

    16) A. Sanchez 12.0 (1.30 WHIP/3.70 ERA)

    27) E.Jackson  10.4  (1.35 WHIP/4.10 ERA)

    31) H. Kuroda 10.1  (1.18 WHIP/3.26 ERA)

    65) B. McCarthy 6.6 (1.18 WHIP/3.29 ERA)

     

    2012 ONLY:

    16) Peavy 4.4 (3.37)

    21) Kuroda 3.9 (3.32)

    24) Sanchez 3.8 (3.86)

    81) McCarthy 1.8 (3.24)

     

    At the very least let's make the Yanks pay more to keep him.

    They may just use his money to get someone better and/or younger.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Since I don't see us having much of a chance at all in 2013, I think we may sign a couple bridge players to 1 year deals, and find a couple more to build towards 2014 and beyond via trade or free agency.

    Here's how I see our 2013 25 man roster (with viable options in parenthesis):

    C: Salty   Lava   (Butler)

    1B: ________ (Gomez/Sands)

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks  (Valencia/DeJesus)

    SS: Iglesias  Ciriaco  (Bogaerts )  ** Aviles will be traded **

    LF: _________  (Nava/Sands/Linares)

    CF: Ellsbury   Kalish  (Bradley)

    RF: __________  Sweeney (Linares/Brentz)

    DH: __________ (Sands/Lava/Nava/Gomez)

    SP: Lester  Buch  _______  Lack  Doub   (Webster/de la Rosa)

    LR: Morales  Mortensen (Stewart/Hernandez)

    SR: Bailey  Tazawa  Breslow  Miller  Atchison (R.Hill/Melancon/Bard/BeatoCarpenter/Rosario/Wilson)

    ** Aceves will be traded**

    Although I have 5 empty slots. I think we may just fill 3-4 this winter and leave the rest to the subs and prospects to fight it out.

    SP, 1B, LF, RF,&  DH

    We may see Ross and/or Pods returning. We may see Papi returning. We may not see Aviles and Aceves traded.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Just curious Moon. Ive seen many post with your statement "Since I dont see us having much of a chance in 2013", I was curious to the moves you would make if you thought, like I do, that we DO have a chance in competing next year.

    I realize you dont, but wonder how you would go about this offseason with the outlook of competing in 2013...

    Good call on Aviles...Hes a bluejay now...You can add Adam Lind to your depth chart as well...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I was rooting for one of the other guys but I guess that Farrell makes sense in that he's familiar with management and the pitchers, so that will be a good transition.  I don't see why the RS didn't push for him two weeks ago rather than go through these interviews first--that seems backward.  Some of the teams are starting to make trades (A's and Diamondbacks), so I hope the RS are on point with players they've identified and want.  The other thing that strikes me is that by going with Farrell, the RS probably don't have to jettison pet coaches.  Knowing what happened to BV, any other new coach probably would have insisted on his own coaches.  Obviously we need a pitching coach.  As to the others, I don't know if they're good, bad, or average.  Seems like some new blood and new vision might have been good.  I'm a little negative on this choice, but I hope it works.  I was completely wrong last time.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Since I don't see us having much of a chance at all in 2013, I think we may sign a couple bridge players to 1 year deals, and find a couple more to build towards 2014 and beyond via trade or free agency.

    Here's how I see our 2013 25 man roster (with viable options in parenthesis):

    C: Salty   Lava   (Butler)

    1B: ________ (Gomez/Sands)

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks  (Valencia/DeJesus)

    SS: Iglesias  Ciriaco  (Bogaerts )  ** Aviles will be traded **

    LF: _________  (Nava/Sands/Linares)

    CF: Ellsbury   Kalish  (Bradley)

    RF: __________  Sweeney (Linares/Brentz)

    DH: __________ (Sands/Lava/Nava/Gomez)

    SP: Lester  Buch  _______  Lack  Doub   (Webster/de la Rosa)

    LR: Morales  Mortensen (Stewart/Hernandez)

    SR: Bailey  Tazawa  Breslow  Miller  Atchison (R.Hill/Melancon/Bard/BeatoCarpenter/Rosario/Wilson)

    ** Aceves will be traded**

    Although I have 5 empty slots. I think we may just fill 3-4 this winter and leave the rest to the subs and prospects to fight it out.

    SP, 1B, LF, RF,&  DH

    We may see Ross and/or Pods returning. We may see Papi returning. We may not see Aviles and Aceves traded.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Just curious Moon. Ive seen many post with your statement "Since I dont see us having much of a chance in 2013", I was curious to the moves you would make if you thought, like I do, that we DO have a chance in competing next year.

    I realize you dont, but wonder how you would go about this offseason with the outlook of competing in 2013...

    Good call on Aviles...Hes a bluejay now...You can add Adam Lind to your depth chart as well...

    [/QUOTE]


    I did it earlier in this thread, but stated I am not for that type of plan as it involves repeating the same chances of big mistakes.

    It was something like this: sign Hamilton, McCarthy, Papi, Ross & Peavy. Trade Ellsbury for Romo & H .Sanchez. Trade Lava, Aviles, & Tazawa for Brett Anderson. Trade: Morales, Brentz, Cecchini, Ranaudo, & Britton for J Upton (I'd give them de la Rosa instead of Ranaudo, if they insisted). Trade Aceves, Vinicio, and Atchison for M. Morse.

    We'd be serious contenders in 2013, but be at risk of turning into the 2012 Sox in a couple years all over again.

    SP: Peavy, Buch, Lester, Anderson, Lackey/Doubront

    RP: Bailey, Romo, Breslow, Mortensen, Miller, Hill/Bard/Melancon/Beato/Carpenter

    C- Salty/Sanchez

    1B-  Morse/ Gomez or Sands

    2B- Pedey

    3B- Middlebrooks

    SS- Iggy/Ciriaco

    LF- Ross/Nava or Kalish

    CF- Hamilton

    RF- Upton /Sweeney

    DH- Ortiz

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Henry's Liverpool deal has been a complete disaster so far. I hope he has been doing well in the futures market because his sports teams have been tanking.

    All that said, I still think we make an attempt to be competitive this year. As Moon has said, we probably will look longer term in most instances but I see no reason why we can't make some short term deals to help us win right now. We have the money ( it seems ) and if quality short term studs like Kuroda are available I think we should make a run at them. 

    Sanchez makes some sense. I'm not thrilled with McCarthy and the shoulder issues and historic no good performance before Oakland. I would be concerned with Peavy's continued health. 

    Later!

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    ...As Moon has said, we probably will look longer term in most instances but I see no reason why we can't make some short term deals to help us win right now. ...

    I'm fine with any deal that helps us in 2013, as long as it also helps for 2014 and beyond. A couple bridge deals are fine with me, but spending a lot on such deals, in my opinion, would be emphasizing 2013 at the expense of 2014 and beyond.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Peavy still worries me due to the injury bug.  My top choice would have to be Anibel Sanchez, due to his tremendous track record for the past three years.  I do think you are underestimating how much Sanchez (and Jackson) will fetch in the open market.  I'd guess we are looking at around $12m/yr for both of them.  With all the payroll flexibility, I would not hesitate to offer Sanchez a 3yr $36m deal to be our 3rd starter.

    Our rotation would then be:

    Buchholz

    Lester

    Sanchez

    Doubront

    Lackey

    Obviously it is not great, but I think it will get the job done as we look to somehow find our true ace of the staff.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Peavy still worries me due to the injury bug.  My top choice would have to be Anibel Sanchez, due to his tremendous track record for the past three years.  I do think you are underestimating how much Sanchez (and Jackson) will fetch in the open market.  I'd guess we are looking at around $12m/yr for both of them.  With all the payroll flexibility, I would not hesitate to offer Sanchez a 3yr $36m deal to be our 3rd starter.

    You are probably right. They may even get $50M/4.

    My point is, I'd rather spend $36M/3 (maybe even $46/4) on E. Jackson or A. Sanchez than $30M/2 on Kuroda. Both would be better positioned to help us in 2014, but more importantly, would be here in 2015 while Kuroda would be gone-- all for just $6M more.

    I'd also rather spend $24M/3 on McCarthy and 10-14M/2 on either Marcum or Saunders than $30M/2 on Kuroda.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    I like Marcum a lot.  He is a dark horse free agent.

    He is also very familiar with the AL East since he is a former Blue Jay.

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I like Marcum a lot.  He is a dark horse free agent.

    He is also very familiar with the AL East since he is a former Blue Jay.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If we got Sanchez and Marcum, we could then include Doubront or Morales in a trade for a big bat.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think we may see our pitching staff upgraded more via trade than FA signing(s).

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I like Marcum a lot.  He is a dark horse free agent.

    He is also very familiar with the AL East since he is a former Blue Jay.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If we got Sanchez and Marcum, we could then include Doubront or Morales in a trade for a big bat.

    [/QUOTE]


    Good morning moonslav59.    :)

    What do you think if the Red Sox tried to work out a trade with Toronto (again lol) for Adam Lind?  I think a change of scenery will help Lind get back to what he was. 

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    He's owed too much money, and I think we can do better.

    I'd rather take a shot at Kendrys Morales.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    He's owed too much money, and I think we can do better.

    I'd rather take a shot at Kendrys Morales.

    [/QUOTE]


    I remember when Morales broke his ankle (or was it his foot?) after celebrating a game-winning grand slam in 2010. 

    I like Morales too.  :)

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    He's owed too much money, and I think we can do better.

    I'd rather take a shot at Kendrys Morales.

    [/QUOTE]


    I remember when Morales broke his ankle (or was it his foot?) after celebrating a game-winning grand slam in 2010. 

    I like Morales too.  :)

    [/QUOTE]

    2013 is his last arb year, so he may just be a "bridge" to whatever comes next, but if he was a great year, he may want to stay around.

     
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