Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I
posted at 10/20/2012 12:45 PM EDT
Kuroda would be ideal in a 2 year deal. Hopefully we have some young pitchers emerge over time but why not at least TRY to win in 2013?
I'm fine with improving in 2013, but I want a sharper focus put on 2014 and beyond. If you are looking at Kuroda as a bridge to the prospects fine, I could call him an "ideal" bridge player and see that he could help us win in 2014, but I prefer using the same money to get someone for beyond 2014 (see below).
It's not like we don't have the cash. We don't want to overpay or do a long term deal but Kuroda might well be available for $30 mil / 2 years and look at the numbers he has put up, even as a RH pitcher in Yankee stadium? Consistently excellent numbers averaging over 200 IP during the last 3 years?
Having 196+ IP for 3 straight years is very good, but for a pitcher who will turn 39 before the 2014 season, it might be a negative, in terms of overuse and projected decline.
Consistent numbers? Yes.
RH'er in Yankee Stadium? Yes, but in a small sample size (19 IP) he has a 5.21 ERA and .818 OPS against in Fenway. His earlier stats may have been helped by pitching in spacious LA.
What is not to like about a short term deal for this guy? We couldn't disagree more on this one Moon. I'm making a run at this guy if I'm Cherington.
Like I said earlier, as a bridge player, I'd be OK with signing him, but I'd prefer to use the money to get a starter for 3-4 years or to put towards getting a better and younger starter.
$24M/3 or $32M/4 type deal:
Brandon McCarthy (29-30 in '13) 282 IP 2011-2012 with a 3.29 ERA/1.18 WHIP
$30M/3 or $38M/4 type deals:
Edwin Jackson (29 in '13) 190+ IP for 4 consec. years 3.98 ERA
Anibal Sanchez (29 in '13) 195+ IP for 3 consec. years
$45M/3 or $55M/4 type deals:
Jake Peavy (31-32 in '13) 540 IP over last 4 yrs
4 Year WAR (2009-2012):
23) Jackson 14.0 (1.33 WHIP/3.98 ERA)
30) Sanchez 12.7 (1.32 WHIP/3.72 ERA)
31) Kuroda 12.2 (1.17 WHIP/3.34 ERA)
37) Peavy 11.8 (1.16 WHIP/3.95 ERA)
3 Year WAR (2010-2012):
16) A. Sanchez 12.0 (1.30 WHIP/3.70 ERA)
27) E.Jackson 10.4 (1.35 WHIP/4.10 ERA)
31) H. Kuroda 10.1 (1.18 WHIP/3.26 ERA)
65) B. McCarthy 6.6 (1.18 WHIP/3.29 ERA)
16) Peavy 4.4 (3.37)
21) Kuroda 3.9 (3.32)
24) Sanchez 3.8 (3.86)
81) McCarthy 1.8 (3.24)
At the very least let's make the Yanks pay more to keep him.
They may just use his money to get someone better and/or younger.