A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Surprised this got to page three.  Here is what I propose for the Red Sox this year. I don't think we'll be too competetitive this year, but I'm hoping this team can contend for a Wild Card.  

    1. Re-sign David Ortiz (DH) (2yrs, 22m)

    2. Re-sign Cody Ross (LF) (3yrs 18m)

    3. Sign Jake Peavy (SP3) (3yrs 39m)

    4. Sign Torii Hunter (RF) (1yr 10m, team option for 11m)

    5. Sign Maicer Izturis (IF) (2yrs 8m)

    6. Sign Joakim Soria (RP) (1 yr 3m, team option for 5m)

    7. Trade Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Sweeney, and Stolmy Piementel to MIN for Justin Mourneau

    8. Deal excess relief pitchers (i.e. Breslow, Hill) for mid-level prospects

    Lineup: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ross, Morneau, Middlebrooks, Hunter, Salty, Iglesias

    Bench: Lavarnway, Sands, Izturis, Kailish

    Rotation: Buccholz, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey

    Bullpen: Bailey, Melancon, Soria, Morales, Miller, Tazawa, Atchison/Bard/Hill/Breslow/Mortensen

    Looks like a decent team to me as we bridge the future days with Bradley, Brentz, Barnes, Bogearts etc.  Hopefully we can compete for the Wild Card, which if all goes as planned, we might.  If things are looking bleak at the Deadline, we can look to deal players like Ellsbury, Bailey, Salty, and Morneau for some good prospects for the future.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to titletownfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Surprised this got to the bottom.  Here is what I propose for the Red Sox this year.  I don't think we'll be too competetitive this year, but I'm hoping this team can contend for a Wild Card.  

    1. Re-sign David Ortiz (DH) (2yrs, 22m)

    2. Re-sign Cody Ross (LF) (3yrs 18m)

    3. Sign Jake Peavy (SP3) (3yrs 39m)

    4. Sign Torii Hunter (RF) (1yr 10m, team option for 11m)

    5. Sign Maicer Izturis (IF) (2yrs 8m)

    6. Sign Joakim Soria (RP) (1 yr 3m, team option for 5m)

    7. Trade Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Sweeney, and Stolmy Piementel to MIN for Justin Mourneau

    8. Deal excess relief pitchers (i.e. Breslow, Hill) for mid-level prospects

    Lineup: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ross, Morneau, Middlebrooks, Hunter, Salty, Iglesias

    Bench: Lavarnway, Sands, Izturis, Kailish

    Rotation: Buccholz, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey

    Bullpen: Bailey, Melancon, Soria, Morales, Miller, Tazawa, Atchison/Bard/Hill/Breslow/Mortensen

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Not sure on the numbers or the prospects for Morneau, but I like what you propose here.  I've posted the Peavy/Morneau/Hunter trio as well.  I like the idea or at least something similar.  It makes them very competitive next year without sacrificing too many resources moving forward.   

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to titletownfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Surprised this got to page three.  Here is what I propose for the Red Sox this year. I don't think we'll be too competetitive this year, but I'm hoping this team can contend for a Wild Card.  

    1. Re-sign David Ortiz (DH) (2yrs, 22m)

    2. Re-sign Cody Ross (LF) (3yrs 18m)

    3. Sign Jake Peavy (SP3) (3yrs 39m)

    4. Sign Torii Hunter (RF) (1yr 10m, team option for 11m)

    5. Sign Maicer Izturis (IF) (2yrs 8m)

    6. Sign Joakim Soria (RP) (1 yr 3m, team option for 5m)

    7. Trade Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Sweeney, and Stolmy Piementel to MIN for Justin Mourneau

    8. Deal excess relief pitchers (i.e. Breslow, Hill) for mid-level prospects

    Lineup: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ross, Morneau, Middlebrooks, Hunter, Salty, Iglesias

    Bench: Lavarnway, Sands, Izturis, Kailish

    Rotation: Buccholz, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey

    Bullpen: Bailey, Melancon, Soria, Morales, Miller, Tazawa, Atchison/Bard/Hill/Breslow/Mortensen

    Looks like a decent team to me as we bridge the future days with Bradley, Brentz, Barnes, Bogearts etc.  Hopefully we can compete for the Wild Card, which if all goes as planned, we might.  If things are looking bleak at the Deadline, we can look to deal players like Ellsbury, Bailey, Salty, and Morneau for some good prospects for the future.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It will be looking bleak, so why not trade Ellsbury now while he has higher value with the attached draft pick?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Not sure on the numbers or the prospects for Morneau, but I like what you propose here.  I've posted the Peavy/Morneau/Hunter trio as well.  I like the idea or at least something similar.  It makes them very competitive next year without sacrificing too many resources moving forward.   

     

    We went 9-26 after the big trade. We have Middlebrooks returning and Lackey back. I seriously dount an over the hill Hunter, a seemingly rejuvinated Peavy, and an oft-injured Morneau is going to  make us "very competitive" in 2013, but more importantly, they do  nothing, with the possible exception of Peavy, to improve our longer term outlook.

    If we are to make trades and signings this winter, as I am sure we will, I'd prefer deals for younger players with longer team control and higher upside. These players will help us be more competitive in 2013, but also beyond as well.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to titletownfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Surprised this got to page three.  Here is what I propose for the Red Sox this year. I don't think we'll be too competetitive this year, but I'm hoping this team can contend for a Wild Card.  

    1. Re-sign David Ortiz (DH) (2yrs, 22m)

    2. Re-sign Cody Ross (LF) (3yrs 18m)

    3. Sign Jake Peavy (SP3) (3yrs 39m)

    4. Sign Torii Hunter (RF) (1yr 10m, team option for 11m)

    5. Sign Maicer Izturis (IF) (2yrs 8m)

    6. Sign Joakim Soria (RP) (1 yr 3m, team option for 5m)

    7. Trade Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Sweeney, and Stolmy Piementel to MIN for Justin Mourneau

    8. Deal excess relief pitchers (i.e. Breslow, Hill) for mid-level prospects

    Lineup: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ross, Morneau, Middlebrooks, Hunter, Salty, Iglesias

    Bench: Lavarnway, Sands, Izturis, Kailish

    Rotation: Buccholz, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey

    Bullpen: Bailey, Melancon, Soria, Morales, Miller, Tazawa, Atchison/Bard/Hill/Breslow/Mortensen

    Looks like a decent team to me as we bridge the future days with Bradley, Brentz, Barnes, Bogearts etc.  Hopefully we can compete for the Wild Card, which if all goes as planned, we might.  If things are looking bleak at the Deadline, we can look to deal players like Ellsbury, Bailey, Salty, and Morneau for some good prospects for the future.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It will be looking bleak, so why not trade Ellsbury now while he has higher value with the attached draft pick?

    [/QUOTE]

    Ellsbury had an off year, and I think that a strong half season will lead contending teams to give up more valuable prospects to get him.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Not sure on the numbers or the prospects for Morneau, but I like what you propose here.  I've posted the Peavy/Morneau/Hunter trio as well.  I like the idea or at least something similar.  It makes them very competitive next year without sacrificing too many resources moving forward.   

     

    We went 9-26 after the big trade. We have Middlebrooks returning and Lackey back. I seriously dount an over the hill Hunter, a seemingly rejuvinated Peavy, and an oft-injured Morneau is going to  make us "very competitive" in 2013, but more importantly, they do  nothing, with the possible exception of Peavy, to improve our longer term outlook.

    If we are to make trades and signings this winter, as I am sure we will, I'd prefer deals for younger players with longer team control and higher upside. These players will help us be more competitive in 2013, but also beyond as well.

    [/QUOTE]

    So they have Middlebrooks and Lackey returning, that's it?!  Wow, talk about the glass being completely empty.  Ortiz was having a monster year, then missed pretty much the last 70 games.  Pedroia played the season with an injury and had an off year.  Ellsbury, who was arguably the best offensive player in the AL in 2011, missed most of the season due to injuries.  Jon Lester had a bad year.  They lost their closer before the season started. They had a utility guy, Mike Aviles, playing SS.  They had a manager who noone wanted to play for.  Should I go on?

     By the way, I know you really aren't getting it, but they aren't going to raise the white flag on 2013, just because a bunch of kids may or may not be ready in a year or two.  They will make moves that help "now" as well.  Trust me on this.  They are going to put together a roster for 2013 that will be competitve on paper.  Again, wait to see what that roster looks like before you judge.  In the meantime, keep coming up with phantom trade proposals that have teams trading top of the rotation starters to their division rivals.  By the way, when was the last time that happened? 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    So they have Middlebrooks and Lackey returning, that's it?!  Wow, talk about the glass being completely empty.  Ortiz was having a monster year, then missed pretty much the last 70 games.  Pedroia played the season with an injury and had an off year.  Ellsbury, who was arguably the best offensive player in the AL in 2011, missed most of the season due to injuries.  Jon Lester had a bad year.  They lost their closer before the season started. They had a utility guy, Mike Aviles, playing SS.  They had a manager who noone wanted to play for.  Should I go on?

     By the way, I know you really aren't getting it, but they aren't going to raise the white flag on 2013, just because a bunch of kids may or may not be ready in a year or two.  They will make moves that help "now" as well.  Trust me on this.  They are going to put together a roster for 2013 that will be competitve on paper.  Again, wait to see what that roster looks like before you judge.  In the meantime, keep coming up with phantom trade proposals that have teams trading top of the rotation starters to their division rivals.  By the way, when was the last time that happened? 

    I never said we wouldn't make moves based on improving in 2013 or just for 2013, in fact I said the opposite. You are confusing my opinion of what I think we should do with my opinion on what I think Ben might do.

    I also have said repeatedly that I do not think Jamie Shields will be in Boston next year, yet you keep acting like I think it will happen. I merely stated that it is not an impossibility, and that several factors make it more likely than some may think it is.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Hello titletownfan   :)

    I doubt a 3-year, $18 million will be enough to resign Ross.  Ross is going to get a few good offers from other clubs (I heard the Braves will make a strong push for him). 

    One free agent pitcher I like is Shaun Marcum.  He has a good track record with both Toronto and Milwaukee.  Still young at 30, a positive clubhouse guy and will not cost as much as other pitchers out there.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ellsbury had an off year, and I think that a strong half season will lead contending teams to give up more valuable prospects to get him.

    Perhaps.

    I still think 6 months of Ellsbury and a sandwich pick will likely be of more value than 2 months of a hot Jacoby  starting  after July 31st and no pick.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury had an off year, and I think that a strong half season will lead contending teams to give up more valuable prospects to get him.

    Perhaps.

    I still think 6 months of Ellsbury and a sandwich pick will likely be of more value than 2 months of a hot Jacoby  starting  after July 31st and no pick.

    [/QUOTE]


    If Ells is hot and can push a team over the top for a serious WS push, that to most teams is worth a lot. Both scinarios have their value...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury had an off year, and I think that a strong half season will lead contending teams to give up more valuable prospects to get him.

    Perhaps.

    I still think 6 months of Ellsbury and a sandwich pick will likely be of more value than 2 months of a hot Jacoby  starting  after July 31st and no pick.

    [/QUOTE]


    If Ells is hot and can push a team over the top for a serious WS push, that to most teams is worth a lot. Both scinarios have their value...

    [/QUOTE]

    True, but to me the draft pick tips the balance.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Bump to leapfrog the softy front page invasion.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Bump to leapfrog the softy front page invasion.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    Giants-GM-relies-on-eyes-not-statistics-3991756.php

     

    Seems Sabean thinks much like me.... open thy eyes moonslav59, open thy eyes.

     

    =  )

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Giants-GM-relies-on-eyes-not-statistics-3991756.php

     

    Seems Sabean thinks much like me.... open thy eyes moonslav59, open thy eyes.

     

    =  )

    [/QUOTE]


    Ive always been in favor of a good balance of numbers and a good old fashion eye test...Some here rely too much on one or the other...Its all about balance.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Giants-GM-relies-on-eyes-not-statistics-3991756.php

     

    Seems Sabean thinks much like me.... open thy eyes moonslav59, open thy eyes.

     

    =  )

    [/QUOTE]

    I watch every pitch of every game, sometimes twice.

    I never look seek out a stat and to come to a conclusion. I have my opinions and philosophies about the great game of baseball (that I played for about 30 years), and then, at times, I look for stats to support my position or to refute opinions I disagree with.

    I have always valued the fielding bible (which uses expert opinions not metrics) over UZR. I have always valued my observations way more than any stat. If a stat seems counter to my observational tendencies, I focus on the disparitu and watch closer to see if I missed something. An example of this was my opinion of Salty and Aviles' defense. The numbers started turning on me, I watched closer, and realized I was either wrong or they improved quickly this year.

    How many other posters admit they were wrong as much as I have? (I know, I just served myself up on a platter for softy to skewer.)

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Giants-GM-relies-on-eyes-not-statistics-3991756.php

     

    Seems Sabean thinks much like me.... open thy eyes moonslav59, open thy eyes.

     

    =  )

    [/QUOTE]

    I watch every pitch of every game, sometimes twice.

    I never look seek out a stat and to come to a conclusion. I have my opinions and philosophies about the great game of baseball (that I played for about 30 years), and then, at times, I look for stats to support my position or to refute opinions I disagree with.

    I have always valued the fielding bible (which uses expert opinions not metrics) over UZR. I have always valued my observations way more than any stat. If a stat seems counter to my observational tendencies, I focus on the disparitu and watch closer to see if I missed something. An example of this was my opinion of Salty and Aviles' defense. The numbers started turning on me, I watched closer, and realized I was either wrong or they improved quickly this year.

    How many other posters admit they were wrong as much as I have? (I know, I just served myself up on a platter for softy to skewer.)

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I think you have a good balance of both Moon. Sometimes i think you offer to much in trades, but thats not really a sabermetrics thing.

    I would say that Hill seems to rely on the numbers way too much.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think you have a good balance of both Moon.

     

    I try to be fair.

    Sometimes i think you offer to much in trades, but thats not really a sabermetrics thing.

     

    I guess I just try and compensate for my bias by offering a little more than I think it might take, maybe as a counter to the thousands of posts that overvalue our players.

     

    I would say that Hill seems to rely on the numbers way too much.

    He seems to rely almost solely on WAR and prospect rankings, except for Mariner players he knows more first hand scoops about. At least he is consistent with his judgment criteria.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think you have a good balance of both Moon.

     

    I try to be fair.

    Sometimes i think you offer to much in trades, but thats not really a sabermetrics thing.

     

    I guess I just try and compensate for my bias by offering a little more than I think it might take, maybe as a counter to the thousands of posts that overvalue our players.

     

    I would say that Hill seems to rely on the numbers way too much.

    He seems to rely almost solely on WAR and prospect rankings, except for Mariner players he knows more first hand scoops about. At least he is consistent with his judgment criteria.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Thats not a knock on him, just an observation. And yes, he is consistent...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think we will see several Sox prospects rise up in the rankings this winter and next spring, so it will be interesting to see Hill's reaction to trade suggestions he has shot down in the past that now look better in that light.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Interesting stories about the Angels looking to trade Haren any minute- before his option runs out.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Interesting stories about the Angels looking to trade Haren any minute- before his option runs out.

    [/QUOTE]


    Maybe Haren for one year isnt a bad thing. I hears LAA will send over the buyout amount, 3.5M, to the team haren goes to in a trade. 12M is a risk with his back, but he still started 30 games last year. Didnt go very deep seeing he only had 170-80 IP so thats about an average of 6IP per game. I would think for 12M he should average 7IP at least...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think we will see several Sox prospects rise up in the rankings this winter and next spring, so it will be interesting to see Hill's reaction to trade suggestions he has shot down in the past that now look better in that light.

    [/QUOTE]


    Well hes hyping up his prospects pretty good. Although the M's dont have a good track record of successful ones. Theres a couple there, but far and few between. I only have had a problem recently because of his dim view of the Sox and some of our prospects and then boasting about his. maybe its the reliance on numbers too much...not sure.

    Although he has posted some positive stuff lately since a couple people called him on it. I do like Hill and most of his posts. It just seemed for a while he was a bit bitter and it showed in his posts.

    bottom line is he is one of the good guys here...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think we will see several Sox prospects rise up in the rankings this winter and next spring, so it will be interesting to see Hill's reaction to trade suggestions he has shot down in the past that now look better in that light.

    [/QUOTE]


    Well hes hyping up his prospects pretty good. Although the M's dont have a good track record of successful ones. Theres a couple there, but far and few between. I only have had a problem recently because of his dim view of the Sox and some of our prospects and then boasting about his. maybe its the reliance on numbers too much...not sure.

    Although he has posted some positive stuff lately since a couple people called him on it. I do like Hill and most of his posts. It just seemed for a while he was a bit bitter and it showed in his posts.

    bottom line is he is one of the good guys here...

    [/QUOTE]

    He's been blasted hard by a few posters here who want no non-Sox fans on this site.

     

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