A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to emp9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd rather have Sanchez than McCarthy or Marcum, but I think he will be priced too high and want 2 more years than I'd dare to go.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sox gotta spend some money, right? I'd rather it be on pitching. Seems like they can plug in outfielders to see who pans out (if they re-sign Ross, that is). I mean atleast throw $ in the right direction (regardless whether its ideal or not), which to me would be SP. Sanchez wants 5/$90 & he's 29 & that's the youngest FA SP on the market. No? I could be wrong on his demands. I'm curious to see any remaining dynamic between him and Boston. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Its not about being afraid to spend the $$...They would give him what he wants per year, Its about giving 5 years to a 2-3 pitcher whos had arm issues...Not sure they wanna go that long.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Sanchez has actually put up some nice innings (195+) the last 3 seasons. He's also had an ERA+ of over 105 for 4 straight years.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sanchez has actually put up some nice innings (195+) the last 3 seasons. He's also had an ERA+ of over 105 for 4 straight years.

    [/QUOTE]


    Not saying hes not good. hes a 2-3 pitcher. More of a 3. Id pay 15M per fpor him, just hard to sign him for 5 years. maybe with some protection clauses in there...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sanchez has actually put up some nice innings (195+) the last 3 seasons. He's also had an ERA+ of over 105 for 4 straight years.

    [/QUOTE]


    Not saying hes not good. hes a 2-3 pitcher. More of a 3. Id pay 15M per fpor him, just hard to sign him for 5 years. maybe with some protection clauses in there...

    [/QUOTE]

    There are 30 teams in MLB, so to me there could be an argumaent made that the top 30 starters could be considered #1s, the next 30 #2s, the next #3s, etc...

    From 2010-2012, here is a look at A Sanchez and other notables...

    WAR

    7) Greinke

    12) Lester

    14) G Gonzalez (the guy I wanted last winter)

    15) D Haren

    16) A Sanchez

    27) E Jackson

    29) G Floyd (another guy I wanted last winter)

    43) Liriano

    48) Beckett

    50) Marcum

    51) Garza

    52) W Rodriguez (another guy I wanted last winter)

    59) Buch

    61) Lohse

    70) Lackey

    77) Joe Saunders

    (Sidenote: I am not pretending to think this is a true list of the top 120 SPs in MLB. Some pitchers, like B Mccarthy, do not make this list because of missed time due to injury or youth.)

     

    xFIP:

    5) Greinke

    18) lester

    21) haren

    27) A Sanchez

    32) Garza

    37) liriano

    38) jackson

    51) floyd

     

    tERA:

    16) Greinke

    21) Sanchez

    26) Haren

    31) Liriano

    44) Lester

    46) garza

    48) Marcum

    (B Anderson & B McCarthy would both be top 30 in these categories, if the IP was lowered.)

    57) marcum

     

    I think one could argue that A Sanchez is a legitinmate #1/2 starter, B McCarthy and Marcum are #2/3 starters in terms of a comparative MLB analysis of slots.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    I like Haren a lot.  He is a work horse and a positive guy to have in the clubhouse.  But I am curious why the Angels let him go so easily (unless they are so desperate to free up money for  Greinke).

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Anyone note that Damon nearly has 3,000 hits? If he had replicated his 2010 season in 2011 he would easily get the hits he needs to make 3,000. However he played poorly last year and just turned 39. He would have to play 2 more years for sure and even then maybe 3 to crawl the rest of the way.... 

     

    If he had made it this season and produced as he did prior to 2011.... HOF?  HOF anyhow?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I like Haren a lot.  He is a work horse and a positive guy to have in the clubhouse.  But I am curious why the Angels let him go so easily (unless they are so desperate to free up money for  Greinke).

    [/QUOTE]


    Same reason the Cubs and Sox passed on a trade for him. I dont think they liked his medicals. Hes a west coast guy anyways and wants to stay over there...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anyone note that Damon nearly has 3,000 hits? If he had replicated his 2010 season in 2011 he would easily get the hits he needs to make 3,000. However he played poorly last year and just turned 39. He would have to play 2 more years for sure and even then maybe 3 to crawl the rest of the way.... 

     

    If he had made it this season and produced as he did prior to 2011.... HOF?  HOF anyhow?

    [/QUOTE]


    3000 hits def puts him in the discussion IMO...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I like Haren a lot.  He is a work horse and a positive guy to have in the clubhouse.  But I am curious why the Angels let him go so easily (unless they are so desperate to free up money for  Greinke).

    [/QUOTE]


    Same reason the Cubs and Sox passed on a trade for him. I dont think they liked his medicals. Hes a west coast guy anyways and wants to stay over there...

    [/QUOTE]

    While being a workhorse is good, at his age, you got a think of the high mileage factor and injury or sharp decline probability.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Some interesting names added to the available FA list.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Some interesting names added to the available FA list.

    [/QUOTE]


    non-tendered list looks good...mark reynolds, Brian Wilson, Jiar Jurrjins to name a few...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'm not a big Reynolds fan, but do think Jurjjens would be a nice gamble.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from bgomez. Show bgomez's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The nice thing is that Cherington has a clear Plan A, and that there is an actual Plan B if it does not work. That was not the case last offseason. We will find out next week. I'm calling it, by the end of the week, the Sox will have a new first baseman and possibly a new starter.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    They had a plan A and B last year. You just didn't like it.

    They actually enacted plan C when the dealt deadwood to the Dodgers.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Naps is a good fit, but at least $6M overpaid.

    Naps should play 1B except in NL parks (Papi plays 1B) and a few other games here and there.

    If we add no more positional players:

       vs RHPs   vs LHPs

    1)        Ells

    2)        Pedey

    3) Papi         Naps

    4) Naps        Papi

    5) Midd         Midd

    6) Salty        Gomes

    7) Nava        D Ross

    8) Kalish       Kalish/Nava (Linares/Brentz?)

    9)          Iggy

     

    I could see us adding Swisher and trading Salty (maybe in a package for Gavin Floyd)

    vs RHPs  vs LHP

              Ells

              Pedey

    Papi             Swish (RF)

    Swish (1B)  Papi

          (C) Naps  (1B)

                Midd        

     

    Nava (LF)    Gomes (LF)  

    Kalish (RF)  D Ross (C)

                Iggy

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    I hope the Red Sox sign both McCarthy and Marcum. 

    I think a 3-year, $27 million offer should be enough for each player. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    If we trade Salty and a mid-level prospect for Gavin Floyd, we may just sign 1 SP. I hope it is McCarthy, but I won't be surprised if it is A Sanchez.

    That would give us a deep SP core, but more likely, we'd trade a few players for someone like J Upton of Myers.

    Maybe KC would take Doubront, Morales, Melancon, Lava, Brentz, Vinicio, and Cecchini for Myers and Butler (or somehow get Gordon thrown in there).

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Naps is a good fit, but at least $6M overpaid.

    Naps should play 1B except in NL parks (Papi plays 1B) and a few other games here and there.

    If we add no more positional players:

       vs RHPs   vs LHPs

    1)        Ells

    2)        Pedey

    3) Papi         Naps

    4) Naps        Papi

    5) Midd         Midd

    6) Salty        Gomes

    7) Nava        D Ross

    8) Kalish       Kalish/Nava (Linares/Brentz?)

    9)          Iggy

     

    I could see us adding Swisher and trading Salty (maybe in a package for Gavin Floyd)

    vs RHPs  vs LHP

              Ells

              Pedey

    Papi             Swish (RF)

    Swish (1B)  Papi

          (C) Naps  (1B)

                Midd        

     

    Nava (LF)    Gomes (LF)  

    Kalish (RF)  D Ross (C)

                Iggy

    [/QUOTE]


    That would put Naps behind the plate an awful lot.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Naps is a good fit, but at least $6M overpaid.

    Naps should play 1B except in NL parks (Papi plays 1B) and a few other games here and there.

    If we add no more positional players:

       vs RHPs   vs LHPs

    1)        Ells

    2)        Pedey

    3) Papi         Naps

    4) Naps        Papi

    5) Midd         Midd

    6) Salty        Gomes

    7) Nava        D Ross

    8) Kalish       Kalish/Nava (Linares/Brentz?)

    9)          Iggy

     

    I could see us adding Swisher and trading Salty (maybe in a package for Gavin Floyd)

    vs RHPs  vs LHP

              Ells

              Pedey

    Papi             Swish (RF)

    Swish (1B)  Papi

          (C) Naps  (1B)

                Midd        

     

    Nava (LF)    Gomes (LF)  

    Kalish (RF)  D Ross (C)

                Iggy

    [/QUOTE]


    That would put Naps behind the plate an awful lot.

    [/QUOTE]

    I know, and I'd hate that, but since Ross is about equal vs LHPs and RHPs, and we don't really have anyone better than Swish in RF, we could see Ross catch 90-100 games (mostly vs RHPs), Lava catch vs LHPs, and Naps FT at 1B (except in NL parks) and Swish FT in RF.

    Nice to have the flex with Naps (1B/C) and Swish (RF/1B).

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I hope the Red Sox sign both McCarthy and Marcum. 

    I think a 3-year, $27 million offer should be enough for each player. 

    [/QUOTE]


    While I like both of these pitchers. My preference is Haren, along w/ Edwin Jackson. Just think the one thing that you can count on from Jackson is IP [he avg's 197 per yr], which is something the RS deperately need. Haren provides he highest ceiling of the pitchers available. Think you could probably get both on short term deals, will cost some $ but perfect fit while RS as they wait for the Barnes / Websters / Owens to make there way to Fenway. Hate to see RS sign 2 pitchers and both are on DL. Just see Jackson taking the ball for 31 starts more than I do any of the others.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I hope the Red Sox sign both McCarthy and Marcum. 

    I think a 3-year, $27 million offer should be enough for each player. 

    [/QUOTE]


    While I like both of these pitchers. My preference is Haren, along w/ Edwin Jackson. Just think the one thing that you can count on from Jackson is IP [he avg's 197 per yr], which is something the RS deperately need. Haren provides he highest ceiling of the pitchers available. Think you could probably get both on short term deals, will cost some $ but perfect fit while RS as they wait for the Barnes / Websters / Owens to make there way to Fenway. Hate to see RS sign 2 pitchers and both are on DL. Just see Jackson taking the ball for 31 starts more than I do any of the others.

    [/QUOTE]


    I like Jackson too.

    Anibal Sanchez has averaged about 196 IP the last 3 years, but does not have a lot of career IP on his arm.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Haren I've always liked. I guess you were right, moon. I think the Sox by changing the dynamic of negativity from the dugout--dumping Valentine, adding Farrell---and looking for personality guys like Napoli, Gomes might draw other free agents in. Anyway, I think the Sox are looking for low cost ways to improve team image. 39 mil for 3 years used to be overpay, not it's like not much in the Sox scheme of things. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 9.


    Lackey       $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)            Avg: ~$14M

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)                       Avg: $13M

    Napoli       $13M (plus $13M for 2014 and 2015)                                Avg: $13M

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)   Avg: $6M

    Pedroia     $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M B/O)  Avg: $6.75M

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)     Avg: ~$7M

    Gomes       $5M    ($5M in '14)                             Avg: $5M

    D. Ross      $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)                         Avg: $3.1M

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)                           Avg: ~$2M


    ~$81M in signed players.  (Luxury Tax -  Average Anual Value: ~$70M)



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M  Non Tendered
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M Non Tendered
    Total Est: $33M to $43M  Avg: ~$38M

    That puts our budget at about $120M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

    The Luxury Tax number is now about : ~$108M

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison Non Tendered
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    After adding these "small" contract totals, My guess is we are not at:

    ~$130M

    ~$120M AAV

     

    (Remember there is an amount that must be paid to to the player pension fund that counts against the Luxury tax threshhold, so we may have about $50M or so to spend this year and still be below the line.)

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Naps is a good fit, but at least $6M overpaid.

    Naps should play 1B except in NL parks (Papi plays 1B) and a few other games here and there.

    If we add no more positional players:

       vs RHPs   vs LHPs

    1)        Ells

    2)        Pedey

    3) Papi         Naps

    4) Naps        Papi

    5) Midd         Midd

    6) Salty        Gomes

    7) Nava        D Ross

    8) Kalish       Kalish/Nava (Linares/Brentz?)

    9)          Iggy

     

    I could see us adding Swisher and trading Salty (maybe in a package for Gavin Floyd)

    vs RHPs  vs LHP

              Ells

              Pedey

    Papi             Swish (RF)

    Swish (1B)  Papi

          (C) Naps  (1B)

                Midd        

     

    Nava (LF)    Gomes (LF)  

    Kalish (RF)  D Ross (C)

                Iggy

    [/QUOTE]


    That would put Naps behind the plate an awful lot.

    [/QUOTE]

    I know, and I'd hate that, but since Ross is about equal vs LHPs and RHPs, and we don't really have anyone better than Swish in RF, we could see Ross catch 90-100 games (mostly vs RHPs), Lava catch vs LHPs, and Naps FT at 1B (except in NL parks) and Swish FT in RF.

    Nice to have the flex with Naps (1B/C) and Swish (RF/1B).

    [/QUOTE]


    I think id the Sox keep Salty and Ross catching the bulk of the games they can have Naps play about 20 games or so. That will keep everyone fresh and at their best. Salty would get the most games at around 80, ross around 60 and Naps 20. If they get a guy like Swish or Morse to play RF/1b that would be good. Lav should be in AAA one more year.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Naps is a good fit, but at least $6M overpaid.

    Naps should play 1B except in NL parks (Papi plays 1B) and a few other games here and there.

    If we add no more positional players:

       vs RHPs   vs LHPs

    1)        Ells

    2)        Pedey

    3) Papi         Naps

    4) Naps        Papi

    5) Midd         Midd

    6) Salty        Gomes

    7) Nava        D Ross

    8) Kalish       Kalish/Nava (Linares/Brentz?)

    9)          Iggy

     

    I could see us adding Swisher and trading Salty (maybe in a package for Gavin Floyd)

    vs RHPs  vs LHP

              Ells

              Pedey

    Papi             Swish (RF)

    Swish (1B)  Papi

          (C) Naps  (1B)

                Midd        

     

    Nava (LF)    Gomes (LF)  

    Kalish (RF)  D Ross (C)

                Iggy

    [/QUOTE]


    That would put Naps behind the plate an awful lot.

    [/QUOTE]

    I know, and I'd hate that, but since Ross is about equal vs LHPs and RHPs, and we don't really have anyone better than Swish in RF, we could see Ross catch 90-100 games (mostly vs RHPs), Lava catch vs LHPs, and Naps FT at 1B (except in NL parks) and Swish FT in RF.

    Nice to have the flex with Naps (1B/C) and Swish (RF/1B).

    [/QUOTE]


    I think id the Sox keep Salty and Ross catching the bulk of the games they can have Naps play about 20 games or so. That will keep everyone fresh and at their best. Salty would get the most games at around 80, ross around 60 and Naps 20. If they get a guy like Swish or Morse to play RF/1b that would be good. Lav should be in AAA one more year.

    [/QUOTE]

    In a vacumn this makes perfect sense, but we have so many high need areas to address, and so many teams need a catcher. We have 4 catchers would would be the best catcher on 6-10 teams right now. One has got to go. One will go. My bet is on Salty, but it could be Lava.

     

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