Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

posted at 12/3/2012 8:57 PM EST

**Updated:**

**Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 9.**

**Lackey $15.25M ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015) Avg: ~$14M**

**Papi $14M (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014) Avg: $13M**

**Napoli $13M (plus $13M for 2014 and 2015) Avg: $13M**

**Lester $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout) Avg: $6M**

**Pedroia $10M ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M B/O) Avg: $6.75M**

**Buchholtz $5.5M ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17) Avg: ~$7M**

**Gomes $5M ($5M in '14) Avg: $5M**

**D. Ross $3.1M ($3.1M in '14) Avg: $3.1M**

**Iglesias $2.063M (Then arb) Avg: ~$2M**

**~$81M in signed players. (Luxury Tax - Average Anual Value: ~$70M)**

**Players with arbitration years remaining:**

** Player (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary**

**Ellsbury ($8.05M) 3 of 3 $8-10M**

**A Bailey ($3.9M) 2 of 3 $3-5M**

**Saltalmacchia ($2.5M) 3 of 3 $5-7M**

**C Breslow ($1.795M) 3 of 3 $3-4M**

**R Sweeney ($1.75M) 3 of 3 $2-3M Non Tendered**

**D. Bard ($1.613M) 2 of 4 $1.7-2M**

**A Aceves ($1.2M) 2 of 3 $2-4M**

**M Aviles ($1.2M) 2 of 3 $2-4M**

**A Miller ($1.04M) 2 of 3 $2-3M**

**F Morales ($850K) 2 of 3 $2-3M**

**Rich Hill ($725M) 3 of 3 $.8M-1M Non Tendered**

**Total Est: $33M to $43M Avg: ~$38M**

**That puts our budget at about $120M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.**

**The Luxury Tax number is now about : ~$108M**

** **

**Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):**

**Middlebrooks**

**de la Rosa**

**Doubront**

**Lavarnway**

**Ciriaco**

**Tazawa**

**Mortensen**

**Gomez**

**Sands**

**Nava**

**Kalish**

**Atchison Non Tendered**

**Beato**

**Melancon**

**Webster**

**C Carpenter**

**A Wilson**

**S Wright**

**D Butler**

**C Vazquez**

**A Hassan**

**After adding these "small" contract totals, My guess is we are not at:**

**~$130M**

**~$120M AAV**

** **

**(Remember there is an amount that must be paid to to the player pension fund that counts against the Luxury tax threshhold, so we may have about $50M or so to spend this year and still be below the line.)**